Bizjak Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) "normal" day profit again. Cipolla really had no chance. Shame that Lopez did not convert that minibreak lead in the last tie-break :-( I don't know if you watched it and i don't want to rub salt into the wounds, but Lopez even missed an easy smash which would make it 6:2 in the last tiebreak, a bit of a choke maybe. I thought about going for a Lopez win myself, was around 7.8 at Pinnacle, but in the end decided to take him with +4,5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinningTipster Posted May 5, 2011 Author Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Hi guys, 2 more picks for me for the ATP Madrid tournament: NADAL TO DEFEAT DEL POTRO BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.58 on pinnaclesports MURRAY TO DEFEAT BELLUCCI BY 2:0 SETS @ 1.61 on pinnaclesports On clay Nadal will be able to defend well against Del Potro big shots and force him into unforced errors. Similar reasoning to Murray's bet. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Tailing on Berdych (CZE) vs Monaco (ARG): Berdych - 4 @1,885 Pinnacle Nadal (ESP) vs Del Potro (ARG): Nadal - 4.5 @2,020 Pinnacle Murray (GBR) vs Bellucci (BRA): Under 20.5 @1,926 Pinnacle Gajdosova (AUS) vs Safarova (CZE): Over 21.5 @1,800 Pinnacle Mattek-Sands (USA) vs Schiavonne (ITA): Mattek-Sands @2,850 Pinnacle Azarenka (BLR) vs Parra-Santonja (ESP): Under 18.5 @1,769 Pinnacle and adding Wozniacki (DEN) vs Goerges (GER) Over 19.5 games @1.800 Pinnacle It is a replay of Stuttgart final and Goerges should trust herself against Woz. But, frankly, in Stuttgart she played at home, while her performance in Madrid yesterday against Safina was far from convincing. Nevertheless, she should be able to resist enough to give away at most one break each set (in case she wins the toss), or to either bring it to 5-7 in at least one set or to break Woz too (in case Woz wins the toss). Their last two matches went over this line, so I'd say the chances are pretty good that today we shall see an over again. GL :hope Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I don't know if you watched it and i don't want to rub salt into the wounds' date=' but Lopez even missed an easy smash which would make it 6:2 in the last tiebreak, a bit of a choke maybe. I thought about going for a Lopez win myself, was around 7.8 at Pinnacle, but in the end decided to take him with +4,5.[/quote'] I watched the hockey chamionship at the same time too, so I just switched between the channels and did not follow the exact scores. I was considering the handicap, too, but who does not risk, does not win :-) It did pay off in my case when I took Lu > Nando at 10.25 Pinnacle (did not post the bet because it was really a faaaaar shot), so I was greedy again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Murray -4.5 games vs Bellucci @ 1.77 (Bwin:4pts) Can't see any trouble for Murray here, cannot see Bellucci's big shots standing up to the test...the errors will eventually flow. His serve can also go walkabouts at times, so Murray should get a few chances to break. Murray played OK against Simon, Simon ran out of ideas eventually as Murray kept getting an extra ball back....Bellucci has a bit more power in his forehand but less consistency than Simon. Murray for a good win. gl! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
captaincool Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I'm on quite a lot today, many of the same as people have mentioned. I'm unfortunately only able to use betfair from where I am, which is a bit of a hassle but hoping this has made me reject some bad picks. Azarenka v Parra Santoja - under 19.5 games @1.57 - 10 points As everyone has sad, Azarenka is playing brilliantly at the moment and is giving nothing up. She's winning her service games which is absolutely vital. I'd have taken an 18.5 game line and possibly less depending on the price but I've had to settle for this, although I'm very confident so it's max. stakes at shorter odds. Berdych v Monaco - Berdych 2-0 @1.93 - 5 points Berdych is the public bet today, which is always a bit of a worry but he was very impressive against Granollers yesterday. Monaco struggle past Golubev in round 1 then was lucky to face an ill Monfils on Tuesday. I think Berdych should win this without too much fuss and I'll take the 2-0 at a better price than the -3.5 handicap. Mattek-Sands (+3.5 games @2.0) v Schiavone - 5 points Value has gone on the outright on Mattek-Sands but this price looks okay for her to either win or to keep it close with Schiavone. The fast courts should help her win some easy service games and Schaivone has been crap for a while so there's a good chance she'll get opportunities. Three sets is a possibility and if that's the case then I should be home and hosed whoever wins. Na Li (-3.5 games) v Roberta Vinci @1.9 - 2.5 points Bit of a riskier one but I'm willing to take it at smaller stakes. Na Li hasn't been great since Oz but she's showing signs of getting back on form in time for Roland Garros. She has won both her matches in Madrid fairly easily and I think she can outhit Vinci today. I don't actually rate the Italian and think her game isn't good enough against the better players/stronger hitters. They've played once and Li won 6-4, 6-0. It was in 2006 so it's not really relevant but I guess it's worth pointing out. LLodra v Gimeno-Traver - Llodra 2-0 @3.15 - 2.5 points Another risk but I'm happy to take it at the price. I REALLY don't rate DGT and think it's a bit of a miracle that he's got this far. He's been lucky to face two of the tours clowns (Gasquet + Melzer) who couldn't close a door between them. Llodra hasn't been great but he's steady and looked comfortable in his wins over Querrey and Cipolla. He won't do anything flash but I think if he wins, he does it in straight sets rather than a drawn out affair. Might be wrong but worth a smallish play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) One mens' match after all for me. Nadal -4.5 AH vs Del Potro. 2.11 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Gonna say what I said yesterday about Del Potro. He is tired. Brainless Cilic did not gave up very quickly. Nadal won't, be sure about that. I think handicap is better option here than unders (21 games) because I feel Potro might keep it close in the first set and lose it smth like 7-5. Can't see him surviving this match, he played five matches last week in Estoril, finished there on Sunday, one day off and now he's here playing three days in a row. He'll surely be done. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Goerges........:notworthy....great win for her. Big fan of this girl Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crack Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Sport Tennis Event Thomaz Bellucci - Andy Murray Selection Thomaz Bellucci Strength 10/10 Date 05/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 5.00 Reasoning Madrid TMS (ESP) - Clay, Round of 16. Andy Murray is a big favorite here but I have to say that odds like 1,20 are not serious in my opinion. Murray never played against Bellucci. Andy played against Simon Gilles yesterday and had big problems. Gilles had 10 break points. Bellucci played against Mayer yesterday and he was serving very nice: 1st Serve Points Won 73% (36/49) 2nd Serve Points Won 65% (13/20) I see close match with many games and propably with 3 sets so odd like 5,00 is fantastic for me! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Sport Tennis Event Thomaz Bellucci - Andy Murray Selection Thomaz Bellucci Strength 10/10 Date 05/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 5.00 Reasoning Madrid TMS (ESP) - Clay, Round of 16. Andy Murray is a big favorite here but I have to say that odds like 1,20 are not serious in my opinion. Murray never played against Bellucci. Andy played against Simon Gilles yesterday and had big problems. Gilles had 10 break points. Bellucci played against Mayer yesterday and he was serving very nice: 1st Serve Points Won 73% (36/49) 2nd Serve Points Won 65% (13/20) I see close match with many games and propably with 3 sets so odd like 5,00 is fantastic for me! LOL! Murray struggled because he was playing a player that played his style, he came through because Murray was better at the style than Simon. Belluci may have more power but he isn't anywhere near as consistent as Simon, to beat Murray you need a combination of both, Belluci has 1 and Murray loves someone with power and no consistency. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crack Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Andy had injury and in my opinion he will have problems against Bellucci. Thomaz's service looks very good here and odds are not serious for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Andy had injury and in my opinion he will have problems against Bellucci. Thomaz's service looks very good here and odds are not serious for me. Okay, well I feel you'll be drastically wrong, so we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crack Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Okay' date=' well I feel you'll be drastically wrong, so we will see.[/quote'] Odd for Murray's win is not good in my opinion and I see value in this option so I bet. I think that Bellucci can win so as you wrote ''we will see'' ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
READ24 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Let us know when else you know someone will be "drastically wrong" because with your talents you must be raking the money in. Each to their own. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Let us know when else you know someone will be "drastically wrong" because with your talents you must be raking the money in. Each to their own. :zzz Freedom of opinionated speech. :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
READ24 Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Taking Llodra at 2.18 currently on betfair also, Echoing what has been said previous however this has the potential to be a three setter imo, DGT has dispatched two good yet unpredictable players and how he did so is unbeknown to me, yet still hes playing Llodra who is a level ahead of him and will rush him and force the errors, unlikely that traver will be able to pull of passing shot after passing shot, GL all Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dizzyme Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Del Potro pulled out of his match with Nadal due to injury. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyDelight Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Mattek-Sands straight sets ;) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Agreed. 2-0 Berdych at around 11/8 would be a brilliant bet. :dude Took it @ Evens. Berdych is a set and a break up, safe to already say easy money and WIN I reckon. :dude Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homunculus Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Okay' date=' well I feel you'll be drastically wrong, so we will see.[/quote'] It's pointless to argue with CRACK :-) He invariably picks the biggest dogs of the day and makes a writup similar to this one. Funny enough, he missed Lu against Verdasco. It would be interesting to see his stats :) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psycho Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova > Julia Goerges. 2.02 @ Pinnacle (5/10) Couple things that should be against Goerges in this match. First of all, she looked fatigued in the final part of her match against Wozniacki. Secondly, she picked up an ankle injury and was not moving well in the 3rd set. Wozniacki must be kicking herself for not changing her tactics and playing her boring tennis. Should have attacked more and would not have been beaten. Pavlyuchenkova's tennis is very similar to that of Goerges. The Russian girl can also hit ball very hard, but plays a bit more safer tennis and makes less unforced errors. That combined with Goerges injury should be a winning formula. Don't think odds will stay like this any longer. Dominika Cibulkova vs Petra Kvitova. Under 20.5 games. 1.98 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Kvitova should win this one as she has got more power but being not really smart player she can also lose this match very easily. Having unders here as a precaution if things go not like planned. Kvitova has hammered Cibulkova both times they've played and I would not mind to see that happening again. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CzechPunter Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I agree with Kvitova, but I have her outright, so will leave that one alone. Pavly is a good bet though. (4/10) A.Pavlyuchenkova to beat J.Goerges @ 2.00 at Pinnacle Pavlyuchenko beat Stosur and Goerges beat Wozniacki, so two upsets. Wozniacki lost that match by her poor play though and I prefer Pavly here based on her previous performances. Pavly was losing against Bartoli but came back to crush her and then beat Stosur quite easily. Georges two long matches, definitely not impressive against Safina. Add the tiredness and Pavly should win today. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Meh bad day, 1/3 . Berdy did the business but Murray and Gajdosova were garbage. The latter especially was not interested at all. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Meh bad day, 1/3 . Berdy did the business but Murray and Gajdosova were garbage. The latter especially was not interested at all. So gutted I did... Safarova Berdych 2-0 Murray 2-0 Daniel Gimeno Traver Soderling 33/1 £5 ...and of all the ones Murray screwed me... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Sport Tennis Event Thomaz Bellucci - Andy Murray Selection Thomaz Bellucci Strength 10/10 Date 05/05/2011 Bookmaker/Price Sportingbet @ 5.00 Reasoning Madrid TMS (ESP) - Clay, Round of 16. Andy Murray is a big favorite here but I have to say that odds like 1,20 are not serious in my opinion. Murray never played against Bellucci. Andy played against Simon Gilles yesterday and had big problems. Gilles had 10 break points. Bellucci played against Mayer yesterday and he was serving very nice: 1st Serve Points Won 73% (36/49) 2nd Serve Points Won 65% (13/20) I see close match with many games and propably with 3 sets so odd like 5,00 is fantastic for me! Apologies are in order I guess... whether this was a fluke or a stroke of genius... :notworthy:clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) So gutted I did... Safarova Berdych 2-0 Murray 2-0 Daniel Gimeno Traver Soderling 33/1 £5 ...and of all the ones Murray screwed me... Unlucky that. Murray looked utter crap, way too many errors on return which you wouldnt expect from him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Unlucky that. Murray looked utter crap' date=' way too many errors on return which you wouldnt expect from him.[/quote'] I definitely believe it was more a case of what Murray didn't do to Belluci rather than what Belluci did do to Murray. I know he's passive but I've never seen him AS passive as this.... Time you added Murray (On Clay) to your black list. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IAmGooner Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Yeah Murray gets ridiculously passive at times, usually the case in slams once he comes up against a big hitter. In the end they are hitting the lines and he cant find an answer or a good serve when it counts most. Wozniacki similar although that would be harsh on Murray who at least has some variety, touch at the net. Both have stronger backhands and weaker forehands, very defensive....similarities are there.........:lol Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atko Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Tomas Berdych v Juan Monaco - Tomas Berdych -4 games AH @ 1.926 with Pinnacle 5pts WIN Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Robin Soderling - Robin Soderling -3 games AH @ 1.926 3pts PUSH Rafael Nadal v Juan Martin Del Potro - Rafael Nadal -4.5 games @ 2.02 with Pinnacle 7.5pts VOID Thomaz Bellucci v Andy Murray - Under 20.5 games AH @ 1.943 with 188bet 6pts WIN +10.29 for the day :ok +35.31 for the week :ok I've got to be honest, today was a little fortunate. Berdych was simple enough but Soderling was tight. Murray unders covered, but not in the planned way. I though Bellucci was pretty good today, showed some of the potential that excited me 18 months ago. Hope he can keep it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SayYesMoreInLife Posted May 5, 2011 Share Posted May 5, 2011 Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) +10.29 for the day :ok +35.31 for the week :ok I've got to be honest, today was a little fortunate. Berdych was simple enough but Soderling was tight. Murray unders covered, but not in the planned way. I though Bellucci was pretty good today, showed some of the potential that excited me 18 months ago. Hope he can keep it up. How do you bet if you don't mind me asking? Do you bet in singles? doubles? multiples? what? because I continuously keep getting screwed over by the odd loss in an accumulator. :sad I know best to do doubles and singles but I always get too tempted with the return figures with accumulators... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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