Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Two for me. (4/10) R.Soderling (-4) to bt. S.Giraldo @ 2.02 with Pinnacle I fancy the Swede in this one. He will like the conditions that are not too slow and I think Giraldo will have serious problems. He is not the most consistent player on serve. Beating Dolgopolov is nice, but who knows what is happening to the Ukrainian. 4 games handicap should be coverd in most cases here. (4/10) J.Goerges (-2.5) to bt. D.Safina @ 1.80 with Bet365 I don't really get this line. Safina is still poor and you never know what you'll get whenever she is involved. Can be perfect and beat Georges or lose 6-2 6-2. Definitely fancy the German to cover the handicap, as she has done so in Tokyo last year and improved tremendously since then. Beating Kanepi in three is also definitely better than doing the same against Llagostera Vives

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I expect Berdych to smash Grannolars. This clay is playing somewhat fast for a clay surface, Berdych's serve will take to the surface. Berdych's form has been reasonable this season so far and whilst Grannolars has been spectacular, a spectacular Granola would still prove no match for a reasonable Berdych, I see nothing more than straight sets win for Berdy IMO. Plus he's dispatched with him quite comprehensively a year ago on Clay. Apr 25 2010 Rome TMS (ITA) Clay, R56 (10)Berdych(14,3.44) d (q)Granollers(93,2.46) 6-3 6-3

I would be careful with Berdych - he is coming here as the seeded player for his first match, and his status is injured because of the flu two weeks ago - he did not play since then. He does not have any points to defend here, so he might as well collapse as he did many times before. As far as the Cippola-Llodra H2H is concerned - yes, I am aware of the H2H. The first match comes from 2006, so I would not count it, and the second from the Rome qualies last year was 6-3 7-6 for Llodra, but this hardly constitutes a matchup problem for the Italian. I would say that Cipolla improved since then and the chances he wins are better than 35% suggested by the odds. But of course, I may lose :-) edit: Tailing Goerges to bt Safina idea (no handicap) @ 1.55 local and adding Vinci to bt Kleybanova @2.200 Pinnacle Kleybanova does not feel good on clay, and only thanks to the brainless performace of Peer made it to the second round. However, Vinci is far better on this surface, won Barcelona tournament last week, and won their only match so far last vyear in Rome. I think the bookies have the fav wrong. Lopez to bt Federer @6.94 Pinnacle The odds are falling down quickly - it is always good idea to fade Federer these days. Considering he lost to Melzer two weeks ago in Monte Carlo, Feliciano has good chances to cause another upset, especially when he is at home and in-form as was shown yesterday in his match with Raonic. Anderson vs Djokovic : over 18.5 games @1.917 Pinnacle Anderson's serve game should cause troubles to Djokovic. Also, Djoko just won Belegrade tournament, and could be less concentrated on this one, particularly when he has no points to defend here.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I can definitely agree with all the fellas on Goerges handicap. Goerges -2.5 games vs Safina @ 1.80 (Bet365:4pts) Wouldnt have touched this a few weeks back but Goerges has hit a patch of good form lately, winning Stuttgart beating the likes of Stosur and Wozniacki which is a great result and beating big-hitter Kanepi in rd1 here is also a good result ...Julia served 12 aces in that one which is impressive.Safina on the other hand, she is still not near her best....hitting the ball hard alright but her fitness is still questionable and of course the serve is still the biggest issue.....weak Vives broke her 5 times in the last round and Safina also served 7 df's.....have to fancy Goerges to keep this good form going here, good chance for the win for her.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Just the one bet for me today ... Flavio Cipolla v Michael Llodra - Michael Llodra -3 games AH @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 6pts I fancy Llodra to take this. One can't disregard Cipolla's fine performance against Andy Roddick but I fear the Italian may come back down to earth here. It's very difficult for a lowly ranked played to reach those heights, especially against someone as awkward as Llodra. The environment will be totally different too - this match is on court 6, Cipolla was the marquee match on stadium a few days ago. Llodra's a tough man to face when on form. He'll charge to the net and be a lot more accomplished and attacking than Roddick, who is essentially a sparrer these days. Cipolla also may have Rome on his mind. It's his home tournament and he may have to qualify for it - in that case, this match may not be especially important to him. Llodra also won their only meeting on clay last year, in Rome, 6-3 7-6. Cipolla played very well against Roddick, but the American was dire in that encounter. Llodra on a quicker than normal clay court is a tough assignment, and I think this line is far too generous on the Frenchman. He won well against Sam Querrey last time out, and I expect a good showing again. :hope

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Just the one bet for me today ... Flavio Cipolla v Michael Llodra - Michael Llodra -3 games AH @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 6pts [.. snip ..] Cipolla also may have Rome on his mind. It's his home tournament and he may have to qualify for it - in that case, this match may not be especially important to him. [.. snip ..]

I'd hate to stretch Cipolla case any further, but isn't it probable that in case of good performance here he's going to get a wildcard in Rome?

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I'd hate to stretch Cipolla case any further, but isn't it probable that in case of good performance here he's going to get a wildcard in Rome?

There's a chance, but I think Filippo Volandri and Simone Bolelli would be ahead of him in the pecking order.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Taken two more this morning, considered loads more but something put me off each of those. So just these two plus the Lu bet for me. Gilles Simon vs Andy Murray- Murray -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Only thing that was going to prevent me from taking this one was the concerns over Murray's elbow that kept him out of action last week but he's been practicing for the last week so he should be fine for today, especially after having the bye to the second round, giving him that extra day to prepare whilst Simon beat Ljubicic in just under 2 hours. Didn't watch that one, but from the stats Ljubicic only won 8 points on Simon's second serve, which is very poor as Simon's serve is nor big, or powerful and Murray will improve on that percentage significantly. Andy and his brother got beat in the doubles yesterday so he only has singles to focus on which isn't such a bad thing. Murray leads the H2H 5-1, including a win a few weeks back Monte-Carlo in which he covered the handicap. If he's over the injury, he will be fine here, and as we know, even when he has a slight niggle, he can still perform. Took a set off Nadal back in Monte-Carlo despite struggling with a problem, so I'll back the Scot to get through this one without too much fuss. Tomas Berdych vs Marcel Granollers- Berdych -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10) Similiar to Murray here really Berdych. Last week he was suffering with flu, but if he is over that fully he won't have too many problems here. He'll need some clay court practice before Roland Garros as he hasn't had much so far, so this week I'm fancying the Czech to win some matches. Granollers beat Davydenko in round one, but as mentioned in the forum, Davydenko wouldn't have been completely fussed by that match as he had just won in Munich a few days earlier. Berdych is a better clay courter than the Russian, and will be far more motivated to get a result. He beat Granollers last year in Rome comfortably, 6-3 6-3 in actual fact, if Berdych is at the races like he should be today, a similiar score should be on the cards, and the handicap is a simple break a set which is the minimum expectation for Berdych really.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I like the Cilic handicap for many of the reasons outlined by Psycho. Del Potro looked like he was really struggling against Youzhny yesterday and he seemed to be carrying an injury as well as being tired. This might be one game too many for him and possibly one that he doesn't really need to win. Victory over the seeded Youzhny was important but a win over Cilic will see him come against Nadal, a match that he must know he'll lose when not 100% fit. Cilic has only ever played Del Potro in best of five but took the first set in each of his defeats and won the last time they met in 2010. I'm not sure if I can back Cilic outright given the way he threw away the opening set against Davydenko last week but I'll take him on a +3.5 handicap at 1.9 on betfair. I'm also on u19 in the Djokovic match but that's just started, so no point in wasting people's time with a write up. Good luck all!

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Just the one bet for me today ... Flavio Cipolla v Michael Llodra - Michael Llodra -3 games AH @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 6pts I fancy Llodra to take this. One can't disregard Cipolla's fine performance against Andy Roddick but I fear the Italian may come back down to earth here. It's very difficult for a lowly ranked played to reach those heights, especially against someone as awkward as Llodra. The environment will be totally different too - this match is on court 6, Cipolla was the marquee match on stadium a few days ago. Llodra's a tough man to face when on form. He'll charge to the net and be a lot more accomplished and attacking than Roddick, who is essentially a sparrer these days. Cipolla also may have Rome on his mind. It's his home tournament and he may have to qualify for it - in that case, this match may not be especially important to him. Llodra also won their only meeting on clay last year, in Rome, 6-3 7-6. Cipolla played very well against Roddick, but the American was dire in that encounter. Llodra on a quicker than normal clay court is a tough assignment, and I think this line is far too generous on the Frenchman. He won well against Sam Querrey last time out, and I expect a good showing again. :hope

Yeah, brilliant. I was cautious too, Llodra is good on clay, its too simplistic to say hes not because hes a serve and volleyer. People are too simple to suggest that.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I would be careful with Berdych - he is coming here as the seeded player for his first match, and his status is injured because of the flu two weeks ago - he did not play since then. He does not have any points to defend here, so he might as well collapse as he did many times before. As far as the Cippola-Llodra H2H is concerned - yes, I am aware of the H2H. The first match comes from 2006, so I would not count it, and the second from the Rome qualies last year was 6-3 7-6 for Llodra, but this hardly constitutes a matchup problem for the Italian. I would say that Cipolla improved since then and the chances he wins are better than 35% suggested by the odds. But of course, I may lose :-)

Not worried about this one Berdych will spank him. He just broke back, its 4-3.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Break, 5-3..

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) 6-4, 6-0 it finished...

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Juan Monaco will shit his pants about facing Berdych next match who crushed Granollers. I don't think Monaco will have a chance. He's had bad form and it's still bad and Berdych should easily win. Monaco may have picked up some confidence beating Monfils but I don't think it will be any trouble for Berdych to win.

[SayYesMoreInLife]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Juan Monaco will shit his pants about facing Berdych next match who crushed Granollers. I don't think Monaco will have a chance. He's had bad form and it's still bad and Berdych should easily win. Monaco may have picked up some confidence beating Monfils but I don't think it will be any trouble for Berdych to win.

Agreed. 2-0 Berdych at around 11/8 would be a brilliant bet. :dude

[red_impact]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Nikolay Davydenko -4.5 2.10 bet365

Loss

Alex Bogomolov v Adam Kellner Kellner 2.00

Loss

Thomaz Bellucci v Pablo Andujar Bellucci 2.10 bet365

Win

Jan Blecha v Lukas Lacko under 17.5 games 2.00 bet365

Win

Florian Mayer v Thomaz Bellucci Bellucci 2.10 bet365

Void

Nuria Llagostera Vives (+4.5) tb Dinara Safina 1.90 bet365

Win

Kei Nishikori v Pere Riba 2-0 Nishikori 2.10 bet365

Loss

Ivo Karlovic v Gael Monfils under 22.5 games 2.00 bet365

Win

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Flavio Cipolla v Michael Llodra - Michael Llodra -3 games AH @ 1.855 with Pinnacle 6pts WIN

+5.13 :ok Very straightforward day's profit.

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) 0/1 today, half a game out on the h'cap. Hilariously poor match between Goerges and Safina.....Goerges at 50% would have easily won in 2, and even then she was a set and a break up but she wasnt playing well really. As expected Safina was crap enough aswell.

[captaincool]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

I like the Cilic handicap for many of the reasons outlined by Psycho. Del Potro looked like he was really struggling against Youzhny yesterday and he seemed to be carrying an injury as well as being tired. This might be one game too many for him and possibly one that he doesn't really need to win. Victory over the seeded Youzhny was important but a win over Cilic will see him come against Nadal, a match that he must know he'll lose when not 100% fit. Cilic has only ever played Del Potro in best of five but took the first set in each of his defeats and won the last time they met in 2010. I'm not sure if I can back Cilic outright given the way he threw away the opening set against Davydenko last week but I'll take him on a +3.5 handicap at 1.9 on betfair. I'm also on u19 in the Djokovic match but that's just started, so no point in wasting people's time with a write up. Good luck all!

Push on Djokovic and a loss on Cilic. Bad day for me. I think I'll be leaving Cilic well alone for a long time.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Tomorrows matches then, few that appeal but I've only taken one for now. Xavier Malisse vs Yen-Hsun Lu- Lu to win- 7/4 Bet365- (3/10)- LOSS

Malisse didn't really have any bother in that one unfortuantely.

[fishy25]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Gilles Simon vs Andy Murray- Murray -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN Tomas Berdych vs Marcel Granollers- Berdych -3.5 handicap- 5/6 Bet365- (5/10)- WIN

Credit to Murray in the third set, should have probably taken it in two but once he went 3-0 up in the final set, Simon was never getting back into it. +5.33 today then with the two handicaps coming through, takes me to a tidy +21.31 this week. Not taking anything for the next few days at least as I'm forcing myself to do these damn uni essays. GL to everyone else though.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) LOL @ Clownzer and Clownderer. Anyway, having one early. (4/10) T.Berdych (-4) to bt. J.Monaco @ 1.92 with Pinnacle Monaco would have been out if Monfils played his normal tennis. He is horrible at the moment and losing to just about anyone. Berdych completely in the zone in the second set today, not allowing Granollers anything at all. Monaco is not that much better than Granollers - mainly, he has no serve, while Berdych does.

[Atko]

Two so far for me, one of which could become a public bet ... Tomas Berdych v Juan Monaco - Tomas Berdych -4 games AH @ 1.926 with Pinnacle 5pts There's the potential for this to become a massive public bet, but with good reason, IMO. I was on Monaco earlier in the week against Andrey Golubev in R1 and although he covered the line eventually, we saw signs of his foibles there. His serve is pretty punishable, too slow and predictable against the top players. Quietly impressed with Berdych today, spanked Marcel Granollers once he got used to conditions. Altitude will help him here as he's the one with more power in his locker. Monaco is an adept clay courter but often struggles against players who can hit through him. Berdych leads the H2H 3-0 and although the two matches on hard have been tight, Berdych walloped him on clay, albeit back in 2004. Monaco's not really the force of old, or at least hasn't shown signs of it. Berdych evidently likes clay, and I think he can take this by at least four games. I had the handicap set at -4 at 1.80, so this line has some juice left in the tank. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga v Robin Soderling - Robin Soderling -3 games AH @ 1.926 3pts Soderling's win over Santiago Giraldo today was a really good result for the Swede after the disappointing losses he's had in recent weeks. His serving was back to it's old best and looked a bit more comfortable than he has done in recent weeks. His opponent, Tsonga, is another who has struggled in recent weeks, although he's towed a pretty nice path into R3. Good win over Nicolas Almagro, although he matches up well with the Spaniard, and then a facile victory over Pere Riba. This, however, will be a hell of a lot tougher. Soderling appears to be a horrid match-up for the Frenchman. The Swede leads 4-0 on the H2H and won on clay 6-2 7-5 a few years ago. I can't really work out why Tsonga struggles so much against him, perhaps it's he just gets out-muscled from the baseline. Tsonga did take a set off him in Rotterdam earlier in the year, although conditions there suited him far more than the clay. He's never been a particularly solid clay-courter, he struggles with footwork especially, while Soderling does play well on the surface. His best results have come at Roland Garros but considering he's up against a player he seems to have the number for, I think it's worth investing small stakes in the Swede. I expected the line to be -3.5 games. :hope

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Yeah on Birdman for tomorrow, didn't see the line @ Pinnacle but took the -3.5 at Paddy Power earlier. Think it's still available aswell. Berdych -3.5 games vs Monaco @ 5/6 (Paddy Power:5pts) Monaco was looking fairly decent against Monfils but the Frenchman was struggling, getting little pop on his serve and his movement was compromised in that one. Even not feeling well Monfils was getting looks at Monaco's serve and forcing break chances. Berdych should be reliable on serve for the most part here, surface is quite quick and this handicap looks achievable. Had Soderling on my list aswell but wanted -2.5 games there so will leave that one even though you would expect problems for Tsonga against Soderling on dirt when he doesnt fare too well on his favoured hard surfaces.

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Atko: Do not worry about the trainer, he is without him for some time now (at least from the beginning of this tournament).

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Madrid this week looks very lame with some crap and lazy performances, not to mention f..ed ones. Zagreb and Hamburg are Top 2 tournaments in this category. Madrid has ver good chances to take the 3rd place. As for serious stuff, going with WTA only for Thursday. Will have overs in Gajdosova (this sounds strange these days :D) and Safarova. No odds up yet in that one. 1) Victoria Azarenka vs Arantxa Parra Santonja. Under 18.5 games. 1.81 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Azarenka absolutely on fire this week. She has dropped just two games in two match thus far and looks fantastic. Arantxa Parra Santonja managed to beat Andrea Petkovic in previous round which was a huge shock but knowing Petkovic likes to throw away matches from time to time, it was no big shock to me. As for today's match, I think the Spanish player would be lucky to get 4-5 games out of this match. Azarenka will be all over her. They met a month ago in Marbella and Azarenka crushed Parra 6-2, 6-3. Think it will be unders again and 6-3, 6-3 will do the job. 2) Samantha Stosur to beat Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova. 1.67 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Anastasia Pavlychenkova has been lucky with the draw here. Zheng can hit powerful shots, Bartoli has damaged brain. She was 4-2 up in the first set and managed to win just one game after that. Horrible performance. Stosur plays very good on clay which can not be said about the Russian girl. Should be a close one but I fancy Sam to get thru this one. 3) Na Li -3.5 AH vs Roberta Vinci. 1.85 @ Bwin (5/10) Vinci plays tennis which won't work against Li unless the Chinese number one makes it difficult for herself. She can do that sometimes, let's just hope it won't be the case today. Vinci has got no attack, just playing crap short balls and slices. Li should be able punish most of those shots. Have noticed that she has got new coaching staff here in Madrid so that should motivate her to stop playing brainless tennis. Think Chinese player should hammer the Italian here. Too much power and playing short balls is a suicide against player like Li who can hammer winner after winner. Having Li with handicap. 4) Julia Goerges to beat Caroline Wozniacki. 3.62 @ Pinnacle (4/10) Definitely worth a shot. Goerges beat Wozniacki couple weeks ago in Stuttgart. The surface in Madrid is very similar to that of Stuttgart and Goerges will take a lot of confidence from that win into this match. Wozniacki was a break down in each of the two sets she won against Jovanovski who was undone by lack of experience. Goerges has got that and also has got the game to beat Wozniacki. The Dane did not break Goerges a single time in that Stuttgart final. Of course, odds are slightly lower this time around but still worth a shot, I guess. 5) Bethanie Mattek-Sands to beat Francesca Schiavone. 3.00 @ Pinnacle (3/10) Another underdog I'm very confident about is Bethanie Mattek-Sands. Schiavone in terrible form lately and I really would not be shocked if she went home today. She has not been playing well for months now. Barely got past Peng in round 1, also struggled against Errani playing three sets there. What I like about Mattek-Sands in this match-up is that the American player can hit the ball very hard and that should work against Schiavone. Of course, the Italian is very good in defensive, yet her current form suggest nothing good. Mattek actually beat Schiavone earlier this year in straight sets. It was in crap tournament like Hopmann Cup, yet win is still a win. Fancy Mattek-Sands to cause an upset in this one.

[Psycho]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) P.S. Odds up for Jarka and Lucie. Over 21.5 games. 1.88 @ Pinnacle (6/10) Stone wall overs this one. All four matches between these two have been overs. Three times they played three sets and the only time it was done in two sets they played 22 games. Neither is consistent enough to win in straight sets, it seems. No surprises to see both having played couple 3-setters already this week and that's just the way they play. So overs here for sure!

[IAmGooner]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) I think Woz takes Goerges down this time, although at those odds it may be worth a shot. Caro clearly not as good on clay, both were pretty crap in the last round...Ihave a feeling Caro may take this one pretty well but :hope for Goerges. As Psycho mentioned aswell...overs looks good in Safarova match. Safarova vs Gajdasova OVER 21.5 games @ 1.813 (Pinnacle:4pts) Looks like a tough match, can see a 3 setter in this one and their h2h screams tough match aswell...covered this line in all 4 games. I really like Safarova, she was blasting Jankobitch away today but as usual she just isnt consistent and ended up nearly choking and took the 3rd 7-5. Gajdasova is pretty dangerous when she's on aswell and she's done well so far to beat Kirilenko and Radwanska aswell.This still should be tough, both players wanting to take initiative in the point, can see momentum shifts.

[Atko]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Two further bets in the tennis for me today ... Rafael Nadal v Juan Martin Del Potro - Rafael Nadal -4.5 games @ 2.02 with Pinnacle 7.5pts I'm going to have big crack at this one. I thought the handicap would be -6 games if I'm totally honest, and I feel the bookies have over-reacted to Del Potro's thumping victory over Marin Cilic. Yes, Del Potro was impressive against the Croat, but it must be mentioned that Cilic is not a particularly good clay courter, and has been off-colour this year. Del Potro's played a lot of tennis recently, and I think Nadal is the sort of player who can expose that. He'll absorb Del Potro's power and move the big Argentine around the court. I don't doubt that Del Potro will believe he can win this but there is still a big class divide between the two on this surface. Del Potro has yet to really shine against any of the big guns and I honestly can't see him making a massive impact on Nadal. The Spaniard is impervious on clay. He sees Madrid is the hardest clay event to win because of the altitude, but that makes me think that he'll be massively focused against a player who has beaten him in the past. Those wins only came on hard - Nadal won their only meeting on clay routinely - and that should be the difference here. It'll be another few months before Del Potro can truly compete at this level, IMO. -4.5 is attainable for Nadal here. Thomaz Bellucci v Andy Murray - Under 20.5 games AH @ 1.943 with 188bet 6pts Another line that I feel is slightly too generous. This may be the first meeting between the two players but Murray should have Bellucci's number here. The Brazilian hasn't played especially well this year and wins over injury-hit Pablo Andujar and Florian Mayer don't change a great deal. Far too erratic in crunch moments these days, and it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Murray do this fairly comfortably. Thought the Scot did quite well to take out Gilles Simon yesterday because Simon played the best clay court tennis I've seen him play at times. Murray is now fully accustomed to conditions and should kick on. No H2H so hard to gauge form in that respect, although Bellucci has lost twice to Simon in routine fashion, and he's the closest match-up I can think of in terms of player similarity to Murray. First set might be a 6-4 but I can see Murray breaking the Brazilian down to clinch this comfortably. :hope

[homunculus]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May)

Cipolla to bt Llodra @Pinnacle 2.940 LOSS Lopez to bt Federer @6.94 Pinnacle LOSS Goerges to bt Safina (no handicap) @ 1.55 local WIN Vinci to bt Kleybanova @2.200 Pinnacle WIN Anderson vs Djokovic : over 18.5 games @1.917 Pinnacle WIN

"normal" day profit again. Cipolla really had no chance. Shame that Lopez did not convert that minibreak lead in the last tie-break :-(

[CzechPunter]

Re: Tennis - Madrid ATP Masters/WTA Premier Event (1-8 May) Having some more in the end. (3/10) B.Mattek to bt. F.Schiavone @ 3.01 with Pinnacle I agree with what has been said. Schiavone is having problems at the moment, while Mattek is playing well and the odds do not reflect that at all. Definitely the potential for an upset here. The clay in Madrid is not the slowest around and that is good for the American. Errani almost beat Schiavone the other day and that is not good enough. (2/10) Each-Way Petra Kvitova to win WTA Madrid @ 9.00 with Ladbrokes (1,2 1/2) (E-W)) Ladbrokes offer great conditions for the EW (others have 1/3 price for the final, they have 1/2) and this surely looks like value. Kvitova has the easier part of the draw and she has beaten Vera Zvonareva already. Now, it is Dominika Cibulkova next and then either Mattek/Li/Schiavone. She will be huge favourite against Mattek, Schiavone is not playing well and Li is definitely beateble. The final is anybody's guess, but she has already beaten Clijsters in the finals this year, so she has chances. Too big a price for the risk.