BKI Punter Posted December 10, 2011 Author Share Posted December 10, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks mate, appreciate it. :) I was actually surprised the price on Betfair didn't move after his run today, was getting ready to back, as no horse would've made that mistake, lost four positions and won. Pipe won it before with Our Vic and he has a remarkably similar profile to GE, and he looks all set to go down the same route. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log It's annoying, cause only reason I didn't stake more on Rubi was that I don't always get Irish racing right, and the main horses bar Rubi were ones that usually take turns to have their day. Thought he'd maybe done too much when he went clear, briefly seemed to think Joncol was going to stay on past him, but he had enough in reserve. Not a Gold Cup horse though and think connections have the wrong idea. Can't complain with a 3pt profit on the day. Staked: 187.0 Returned: 249.37 Profit/Loss: +62.37 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 12, 2011 Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Well done with Rubi Light mate, you got it spot on, never going to lose! :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 12, 2011 Author Share Posted December 12, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log cheers man, heard he drifted to 11/4 before the race too. Ladbroke Hurdle Desert Cry 1pt EW - 16/1 (Bet365) Desert Cry looks worth a little interest to me in this race. Rated 135 going into this season, he's only raced once and won a handicap at Haydock under top weight showing vast improvement on what he'd achieved the season before. McCain even said he didn't think the horse was particularly well in, and that he'd come on for it, and I think it's always good to know horses have surprised trainers. Any going will suit the horse so that's not an issue, and he's in the right hands to progress. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1.20 Catterick Crackentorp 2pt win - 3.2/1 (betfair) Has a penalty to deal with after beating Hawk Mountain at Market Rasen but this smart flat performer has every chance of doing so. Easterby yard are in very good form and conditions look ideal. The market is shaped by Bourne's first run over hurdles, but we've no idea what he'll be capable of. Crowning Jewell was held up for too long lto, but he's priced up as if he won that race. The third wasn't up to much and the fav won easily. I'd rather have the proven horse onside despite the penalty. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 13, 2011 Author Share Posted December 13, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log NR, may well've been good enough to win as well, didn't look a fantastic race. 2:35 Newbury The Giant Bolster 3pt win - 6/1 (WH) Just get the feeling TFR might want further, but is no doubt the class horse of the race. TGB was actually lowered a pound after running in the Hennessy, but after travelling well for a long way (hit about 6 IR, BSP was in the 20s), he failed to see out the distance. Back to three miles will suit, and he likes small fields. TFR likes bigger fields and has had two hard races in top company this season already. He doesn't have gear changes, he just keeps finding and galloping. Pasco hasn't won beyond two miles, and has never tried beyond 2m5f so stamina has to be a doubt. Carpincho has a lot to find even in receipt of weight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 14, 2011 Author Share Posted December 14, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Ladbroke Hurdle Desert Cry 1pt EW - 16/1 (bet365) Raya Star 1pt EW - 12/1 (William Hill) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:30 Ascot Chablais 2pt win - 4.4 (Betfair) Kumbeshwar 1pt win - 4.2 (Betfair) Fascinating novice chase on the card tomorrow and I think Henderson's unbeaten charge, Chablais, should be shorter. The Nicholls' horse is fav, was getting weight from Eradicate lto and won by a nose. Maybe he needed it, but I think the form is a bit dodgy. Frascati Park looks one of those horses that'll struggle in this grade, the same applies to Michael Flips and the former top class hurdler, Zaynar. Chablais was an expensive recruit and is currently unbeaten in three starts including a point to point. In his first race under rules he travelled strongly and seemed to blow up in the straight but still win. Dunno why he was put away for so long, but came back to debut over fences last month and won as he should after the market rival fell. The one thing you'd be worried about is that he jumped left, but you'd assume that's sorted as he remains on a right-handed track, with Henderson stating he'd prefer to go the other way for 'saftey's stake'. For an unbeaten Henderson novice he looks a big price and will apparently relish the step-up in trip. Kumbeshwar represents the Alan King yard, a high-class juvenile hurdler last season, couldn't have made a better start to his chasing career with an easy success at Hereford. He jumped well, responded and went clear when asked and was eased heavily. His main market rival didn't feature, but if re-finding his form from last year he has to be in with a big shout here. The trip is slightly worrying but he hasn't done anything to suggest it'll be a hindrance. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:55 Ascot Molotof 4pt win - 9/4 (WH) Hazy Tom has been backed into a ridiculous price now, so great value is there on Molotof who shouldn't be bigger than 13/8 imo. Both horses on upward curves, Hazy Tom unbeaten. Although his form was going to be franked at Cheltenham, he beat that horse over two miles which wouldn't have suited him. His form other than that, looks pretty moderate, and the market is formed on the basis that he's even better than it appears. Molotof has finished just behind Zarkandar on UK debut and won two races over hurdles this season after retaining novice status. Had to make the running lto, which didn't suit and flatters the second and third. He isn't well in at the weights, but I'm taking the gamble that Hazy Tom isn't as good as we're being told he is, and that Molotof has the ability to beat the rest comfortably. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Staked: 200.0 Returned: 264.37 Profit/Loss: +64.37 Stakes don't include antepost bets in the Ladbroke. Novice chase was horrible and should've left it alone. Never seen a market change so much! Zaynar burst back to form and it was nice to see him put in a decent performance. Don't think any of the novices will feature in big races. Molotof won well enough to give me a 6pt profit on the day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:10 Haydock Patesse 2pt EW - 9/1 (VC) Disappointed in the Greatwood, but the trip was probably too short and a testing 2m4f should be up his street. Races off 135 which doesn't look bad at all, same jockey onboard when he won impressively at Sandown, value for a lot more than the winning distance. If you take out his Greatwood run, he'd probably be a very strong fav here and I think 9/1 is way too big. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:05 Ascot Reve De Sivola 2.5pt EW - 6/1 (888Sport) Will love a soft ground three miles and drops down to a very low mark of 139 over fences, and will carry only 10-4 thanks to Neptune. He isn't the best jumper and hasn't made the transition to chasing in great style, but he's well handicapped on his talent and it's conditions like this he's bound to thrive in. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 16, 2011 Author Share Posted December 16, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:25 Ascot Lancetto 1pt win - 9.69 (Betfair) King Edmund 0.5pt EW - 9/1 (boyles) Lancetto is put into handicap company after a very nice start to novice chasing. Found Al Ferof and For Non Stop too hard to handle at Sandown but he beat the rest nicely and is interesting here with Geragthy booked. The worry has to be the testing conditions, but I think that's why a good price is offered. King Edmund always runs a good race but looks fairly handicapped here, and will win soon enough. He likes Ascot and takes to all conditions. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Well done with Raya Star & King Edmund BKI :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 17, 2011 Author Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Thanks mate. Patesse disappointed, but it was very testing at Haydock. King Edmund ran his usual honest race and won nicely, shame Lancetto didn't pick up. Reve has absolutely no gears and even if he ran off 150 today instead of 139, result would've probably been the same. Needs much longer trip. Desert Cry took the keenest hold I've ever seen thanks to the slow pace, but Raya Star, despite taking a hold himself, proved to be well handicapped off his featherweight and came through to win well. Will be on him again nto, don't think he'll be put up too much and will enjoy better pace. +14 and a bit on the day. Staked: 215.0 Returned: 294.03 Profit/Loss: +79.03 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mirage Posted December 17, 2011 Share Posted December 17, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Well done mate! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Aidymac Posted December 18, 2011 Share Posted December 18, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log RAYA!!! :clap Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Ta guys. 1:30 Taunton Tiger O'Toole 0.5pt EW - 14/1 (Bet365) Small bet because he has a lot to prove over fences, but this isn't a massively strong race and he's well in on what he achieved over hurdles last year and the trainer does well at Taunton. Might need a slightly longer trip these days, but the ground should be testing enough and if he jumps well, he should finish strongly. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 19, 2011 Author Share Posted December 19, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:30 Southwell Captain Scooby 1pt EW - 14/1 (PP) Kept backing him but he had no luck in running every time, then when I miss him he racks up a treble in a week. He enjoys five furlongs on a slow surface so has ideal conditions tomorrow, and taking into account the claim he's only 1lb above his last winning mark, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see him go close. Finished third that day at 20/1. 3:15 Kempton Captain Scooby 1pt EW - 8/1 (PP) He's back out tomorrow for the 3:15 at Kempton. Although track may not be ideal, he has a 7lb claimer onboard who landed a race for connections on Kames Park the other day. Running off 70 sees him very well handicapped, even taking into account the fact that he's best on a slower surface. 8/1 is a very fair price, and other bookmakers are considerably shorter. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Written in November: King George Captain Chris 2pt win - 8.25/1 (Betfair) High class horse with the stamina to win this. I think he's massive value at the price. I'm glad they side-stepped the Amlin for whatever reason. He'll be spot on for this race and although Long Run seems to love Kempton, I think he's starting to look more and more overrated. Captain Chris is a genuinely class horse, does not stop running on and is able to hold his position. Won the Arkle going away and then drew the sting out of Realt Dubh in Ireland. Was going to win the Haldon but unseated at the last. He looked beat but kept on, and you can't imagine he was fully tuned up. He was also carrying top weight. You've got to remember even Kauto couldn't win this off 149 back in 2005, and he'd had a similar amount of racing albeit it in France. There's no chance Master Minded will be able to cruise round here, if he's off the bridle in behind horses he'll fall into a hole. I'll probably save on Somersby if he goes, simply because I think he's got more stamina and will run on. Didn't like what I saw from Wishful in the PPGC, think he's dropping down in trip anyway. The rest I'm not too sure on, but I'm happy with the price for CC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 3:40 Kempton Knight's Pass 3pt EW - 9/2 (WH) Very highly regarded bumper horse, made a nice start over hurdles at Exeter after drifting badly in betting. Came with a winning run lto, but didn't see it through. Maybe was outpaced and being a bumper horse probably needs further than 2m anyway, so the step-up is ideal. For such a promising horse, a mark of 125 looks massively lenient. If he can't go close off this it'll be very disappointing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 2:20 Leopardstown Blackstairmountain 2pt EW - 9/2 (Bet365) Bog Warrior will be hard to beat but I didn't get the impression he'd want a drop in trip. Blackstair made an easy transition to fences bar one mistake, and looks a nice prospect. He looks an EW steal in this race, a few novices in here that are good horses but will always be below top class. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 25, 2011 Author Share Posted December 25, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:45 Wetherby Sarando 2pt EW - 8/1 (WH) Some classy novice form to his name, and he'll relish a soft ground three miles. Was going well in Hennessy before falling and would've surely played a big part, I think he's a huge price here and should be nearer fav. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Awesome day of racing all round, such brilliant finishes! Captain Chris looked likely to land a blow at one point despite not travelling great and jumping less than fluently at the start but couldn't go with the big guns. Need to watch it again though as I was cheering Kauto all the way to the line! Blackstairmountain won, wearing down Notus De La Tour. Missed the start so dunno what happened to Bog Warrior. Sarando drifted out to about 20 before the off so not surprised he ran badly, and Knight's Pass proved to be well handicapped winning nicely in the last. Staked: 234.0 Returned: 332.16 Profit/Loss: +98.16 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log 1:25 Kempton - Sprinter Sacre - 5/4 2:40 Kempton - Finian's Rainbow - 8/13 3pt win double with Bet365. Two small fields and I'm siding with the Henderson double. Sprinter Sacre looked awesome on chase debut and I think this track is going to suit him far better than Peddlers Cross. He didn't go for the CH so never got to prove himself at the top hurdle level which is why he's a fair price. FR will also be suited to Kempton, slight worry is that Wishful will want the lead as well but that horse has had a horrible year so far, and I'm not sure two miles is his trip. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Chepstow 2:45 Countrywide Flame 2pt EW - 3/1 (VC) Fav is too short and the Hinterland form no longer looks great. My selection lost by half a length to Secret Witness who's here, but was conceding weight. Off levels today and I think CF holds the strongest claims of the three. He's improving with every race and handles any ground. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevet1859 Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Spot on with both Knights Pass & Blackstairmountain BKI :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cpo Posted December 26, 2011 Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log yeh nice work today BKI :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 26, 2011 Author Share Posted December 26, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Cheers guys :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BKI Punter Posted December 27, 2011 Author Share Posted December 27, 2011 Re: BKI's Betting Log Nice profit of just over 7pts on the day with the double coming in. Countrywide Flame looked to have it in the bag as well but the winner battled well. Sprinter Sacre's going to win the Arkle, why oh why didn't I back it before today's race! I said as it was winning it should be no bigger than 2/1, 5/2 is widely available but we'll see. Finian's looked beat after his mistake but proved too strong in the end. Staked: 241.0 Returned: 346.26 Profit/Loss: +105.26 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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