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2011 Boxing Thread


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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

I think you're going by guess work a bit to much to be honest Pete. While I do think a Foster Stoppage is the most likely outcome I'm not going to go into a bet without knowing enough about the opponent. Therefore' date=' No bet from me. :ok[/quote'] Definitely think it's worth the risk, this looks a glorified showcase bout to me. I take your point but when so little is known about an opponent across the board then that is never generally a good thing. Weak puncher, decent-ish looking record on paper but never fought anyone, Foster's first defence; all looks set for an easy win in my opinion. Could be wrong though..!
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

I'm hoping to eventually get 21/20 or something of the sort for Acosta by tomorrow night... Another good price is 10/11 for the fight not to go the distance... Acosta can brawl as well as box' date=' so it wouldn't surprise me if a stoppage came his way... I'm not a Rios fan, and maybe that's hindering my decision here, but this looks a decent matchup for Acosta and hopefully somewhere will open with Evs or more.[/quote'] How predictable!? Prices up to 6/5 [sportingBet] and 11/8 [bet365] for Acosta, maybe lucky to get an extra 20p/£1 on there by the end of the night... Will carry on being patient here :ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

How predictable!? Prices up to 6/5 [sportingBet] and 11/8 [bet365] for Acosta' date= maybe lucky to get an extra 20p/£1 on there by the end of the night... Will carry on being patient here :ok
I like the 'not to go the distance' here - both good punchers and it looks certain to be a firefight. Rios is similar to Urbano Antillon and Acosta stopped him away from home.. we saw how hard that is to do when Antillon fought Soto last year. Not sure if I'll take it yet but the price is dropping so I'll have to make up my mind soon!
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Definitely think it's worth the risk' date=' this looks a glorified showcase bout to me. I take your point but when so little is known about an opponent across the board then that is never generally a good thing. Weak puncher, decent-ish looking record on paper but never fought anyone, Foster's first defence; all looks set for an easy win in my opinion. Could be wrong though..![/quote'] To be fair Im with Pete on this one. At the end of the day Im a punter and love boxing. If I know Im going to watch a fight I tend to have a tickle regardless. Not professing to know everything and I think some reasonable decisions (guesswork) can be made with a few assumptions. Not telling anyone to take it but your opinion is there and may benefit others who are watching the fight and fancy an interest bet. Not having a go at all J0hnny but as an incredibly broad example, if I fancied a horse to win a race I would back it - regardless if I had seen the rest of the field LTO - or ever for that matter. Not sure about anyone else but I use a staking plan. My max bet would be 10% of my roll which is 1000pts at present and I very rarely go max. In fact a lot of my bets are about 1-3% of that roll. In short I dont see any harm in an 'interest' bet for an event I am ging to watch.:ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

S.Foster to bt. E.Fegatilli by KO' date= TKO or DQ 8pts 2.38 StanJames This one looks pretty straightforward to me but I’m going in blind a little bit. Fegatilli has lost four times already and now faces his best opponent to date in Foster. He’s won his last 8 but it’s mostly filled with cans. There’s no footage of him anywhere apparently, which speaks volumes but also means we can only go on his record which is lacklustre to say the least. This bout looks very much like the Hatton-Belge one from a few months back, Foster being promoted by Hatton’s team, and I don’t see any problems whatsoever for Foster on home ground against a guy with no power. Fegatilli hasn’t fought even a 10 rounder for nearly 3 years and nicely fits the role of opponent for Foster here. Over 12 I’d expect the class difference to show and Foster’s confidence should be sky high after knocking out Kirakosyan. Foster has stopped two thirds of his opponents in total and can do it again here.
I'm on this too... Also taking 1.5 points on round 7-12 @ 4.33 [skyBet].. Foster Jr. has been given a second chance at a career that he nearly called a day on, and I feel he's training harder than ever and like Ryan Rhodes, is approaching a late kind of prime form here... I expect a late stoppage since Fegatilli hasn't fought a 12 rounder for yonks and his last fight was in April. :hope
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread - Brandon Rios (vs. Miguel Acosta) @ 21/20 [sportingBet] (4/10) Shortly after opening lines - Miguel Acosta (vs. Brandon Rios) @ 11/8 [bet365] (10/10) The prices changed as I expected, and I've covered it with an earlier flutter on Rios... Acosta can fight as a counterpuncher or a brawler, I expect the former tomorrow. People point towards the Peterson fight as a reason that Rios will wear down Acosta and be the victor here because "Peterson is a better boxer than Acsota, therefore Rios wins." method, but Acosta is a different type of boxer than Peterson. Peterson stands still and flurries in the center of the ring, and relies more on hand speed than footwork, whereas Acosta is the opposite. His footwork is very good as he displayed in the knockout wins over Urbano Antillon and Paulus Moses. He has a punishing right uppercut that is his money punch, which is difficult to neutralize if you're a come forward guy like Rios. I think that Rios' style is just made for Acosta, and that will be key here.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Yeah, virus or not that was not good from Foster. I think he's got some mental problems, there was always likely to be an excuse like that. The knockdowns were bizarre. Back to +144.42pts for the year. S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-12 (any method) 10pts 1.50 Skybet S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-6 7.5pts 2.75 Skybet S.Alvarez v M.Hatton Under 9 Rounds 7.5pts 1.91 Skybet Might as well take these now, can’t see any reason the prices would rise. Alvarez is already a few levels above Hatton who is stiff, slow and very ordinary. I don’t see any outcome other than Alvarez blitzing him into submission, Hatton doesn’t have the power to keep Alvarez from charging forward and throwing hard shots at him which will prove his downfall. I really don’t see what Hatton can do to even be competitive in this fight. I guess there is a danger this goes into the last quarter of the fight but I’m willing to take the risk. Hatton has been stopped before by a guy who had 10 fights in his entire career and was in trouble early against light hitting Nuzhnenko. Alvarez hits with real authority and isn’t backwards in coming forwards, he’ll take shots to get his off and with Hatton having little pop I just can see the bigger Mexican overwhelming Hatton early on.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

I backed fegatilli @ 9/1 at the end of the 8th rd to win by ko/tko/disq. :puke
Yeah I got on at 16/1.. never seen someone decked from body shots 4(?) times and recover to see out the fight. The whole second half of that fight was surreal, Foster kept going down but seemed to have a fair amount of energy left. Not sure he's ever going to be one you can trust with your money.
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Yeah, virus or not that was not good from Foster. I think he's got some mental problems, there was always likely to be an excuse like that. The knockdowns were bizarre. Back to +144.42pts for the year. S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-12 (any method) 10pts 1.50 Skybet S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-6 7.5pts 2.75 Skybet S.Alvarez v M.Hatton Under 9 Rounds 7.5pts 1.91 Skybet Might as well take these now, can’t see any reason the prices would rise. Alvarez is already a few levels above Hatton who is stiff, slow and very ordinary. I don’t see any outcome other than Alvarez blitzing him into submission, Hatton doesn’t have the power to keep Alvarez from charging forward and throwing hard shots at him which will prove his downfall. I really don’t see what Hatton can do to even be competitive in this fight. I guess there is a danger this goes into the last quarter of the fight but I’m willing to take the risk. Hatton has been stopped before by a guy who had 10 fights in his entire career and was in trouble early against light hitting Nuzhnenko. Alvarez hits with real authority and isn’t backwards in coming forwards, he’ll take shots to get his off and with Hatton having little pop I just can see the bigger Mexican overwhelming Hatton early on.
There was certainly something not right with Foster, but he did show us a lot of heart. Agree with you completely about the Hatton fight and will also be backing: S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-6 10pts 2.75 Skybet :ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Ricky Burns vs Joseph Laryea I don't think this one requires much reasoning to be honest. It's a complete mismatch. I fancy Burns to stop Laryea but it could go either way. Some books have Burns priced up as a 1/100 favourite so I was stunned to see the price at WH. I'm up to 1272pts from my original 1000pts bank so far and I'm going to put the maximum bet of 10% on this one.. Ricky Burns bt Joseph Laryea - William Hill - 2/9 - 100pts. Edit: Just read the OP from last year's Boxing thread and noticed some of the rules. I'm going to adjust my post to the standard 1000pts bank now as I was previously working with 100pts.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

There was certainly something not right with Foster, but he did show us a lot of heart. Agree with you completely about the Hatton fight and will also be backing: S.Alvarez to bt. M.Hatton 1-6 10pts 2.75 Skybet :ok
Johhny is the new 10pts stake instead of the 7.5 or as well as making it 17.5 in total? Also can you please not edit posts if possible -[ just quote it and add, if that makes sense?:ok Additionally regarding the staking I will work out as posted:ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

- Brandon Rios (vs. Miguel Acosta) @ 21/20 [sportingBet] (4/10) Shortly after opening lines - Miguel Acosta (vs. Brandon Rios) @ 11/8 [bet365] (10/10) The prices changed as I expected, and I've covered it with an earlier flutter on Rios... Acosta can fight as a counterpuncher or a brawler, I expect the former tomorrow. People point towards the Peterson fight as a reason that Rios will wear down Acosta and be the victor here because "Peterson is a better boxer than Acsota, therefore Rios wins." method, but Acosta is a different type of boxer than Peterson. Peterson stands still and flurries in the center of the ring, and relies more on hand speed than footwork, whereas Acosta is the opposite. His footwork is very good as he displayed in the knockout wins over Urbano Antillon and Paulus Moses. He has a punishing right uppercut that is his money punch, which is difficult to neutralize if you're a come forward guy like Rios. I think that Rios' style is just made for Acosta, and that will be key here.
Cmon Dafs man! You have been gere long enough to know the rules. We cant have the Rios bet at this time as we both know that price was well gone at the time of posting. If you are going to make a bet then have a saver let us know. Cant take an earlier price and say you backed it (not disputing you did) but for the purpose of the thread -[ these records are meant to be as accurate as posted:ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Good stuff johhny!:okEasy to come on here and say told you so:ok
I take no pleasure in seeing fellow punters lose to the bookies. :ok
Johhny is the new 10pts stake instead of the 7.5 or as well as making it 17.5 in total? Also can you please not edit posts if possible -[ just quote it and add, if that makes sense?:ok Additionally regarding the staking I will work out as posted:ok
The stake is instead of the 7.5. So 10 altogether. Cheers. :ok
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Bet No.

Post

Selection

Stake

P/L

Cum P/L

wrimc

3

37

Booth bt Arthur UD

10

-10

-10

4

55

Watson bt Crolla

21

-21

-31

5

73

Watson bt Odonnell

20

20

-11

LtfcPete

5

38

Booth bt Arthur various

15

8.5

8.5

6

43

Abraham bt Bozic stoppage

10

6.2

14.7

7

43

Abraham v Bozic -7.5

5

4.55

19.25

8

46

McDermott bt Olubamiwo (various with cover)

14.5

14.38

36.63

9

58

Crolla v Watson various

19

-19

17.63

10

65

Theophane bt Daws various

26

26

43.63

11

69

Gavin bt Lomax 7-12 and cover

10

16

59.63

12

70

Fury bt Nascinento stoppage

8

4.96

64.59

13

71

Jones/Donaire/Gavin treble

11

9.7

74.29

14

74

Jones bt Karass split

11.5

4.25

78.54

15

86

Foster bt Fegatilli stoppage

8

-8

70.54

DafsT

5

39

Booth and Mora will by Dec Double

10

-10

-10

6

96

Foster bt Fegatilli stoppage

9.5

-9.5

-19.5

7

53

Ramos/Valdez over 8.5/Chambers v Rossy +6.5 double

20

37.8

18.3

J0hnnyTightlips

37.8

2

44

Abraham bt Bozic stoppage

10

6.2

6.2

3

62

Jones bt Soto Karass Dec/TD

10

11

17.2

Superfoo

4

45&49

McDermott bt Olubamiwo (various with cover)

21

7.75

7.75

5

50

Crolla bt Watson

20

30

37.75

6

51

Chambers v Rossy +6.5/Decarie bt Alvarez Double

20

24.93

62.68

7

61

Hernandez/Cunningham by Dec - Double

5

-5

57.68

8

75

Jones bt Soto KarrassDec/TD with cover

60

45

102.68

9

87

Foster bt Fegatilli stoppage

10

-10

92.68

….

Total

187.72

Another tremendous month that shows profit:clap Good results from all and good reasoning and I dare say the strike rate was pretty good. LFCPete loses on only 2 drom 11 and Johnny keeps up his 100% strike rate. Jones beating Karass was the one most profit came from. Outsider McDermott punished Larry in 1 -[sadly 5 rounds too early for a couple of payouts but profit neverthelrss. Early prices taken on the ABraham kp served well for a couple. Lets make March profitable:hope
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Going to try and take advantage of March, which looks on paper like a straight forward month with not many surprises on the cards. - Vicente Escobedo (vs. Walter Estrada) x Zab Judah (vs. Kaizer Mabuza) x Saul Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ (vs. Matthew Hatton) @ 2.35 [sportingBet] (15 points) - Vicente Escobedo by decision (vs. Walter Estrada) @ 15/8 [sportingBet] (5 points) - Zab Judah by decision (vs. Kaizer Mabuza) @ 11/10 [skyBet] (7 points) - Kaizer Mabuza by decision (vs. Zab Judah) @ 5/1 [skyBet] (1.5 points) - Gary Sykes by decision (vs. Carl Johansson) @ 5/4 [stanJames] (5 points) Because I feel lucky :lol - Zab Judah by decision x Gary Sykes by decision x Saul Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ x Vicente Escobedo by decision @ 17.60/1 [sportingBet] (1 point) Vicente Escobedo vs. Walter Estrada Estrada is coming off his career best win over a shot to pieces Nate Campbell via eight round decision, and will face a younger fighter in Escobedo that he's struggled with in the past. No disrespect to Estrada, who fits in perfectly in the sport as a stepping stone, he's merely more than a bounce back opponent here for Escobedo, who's lost two of his last three against top 5 fighters. Escobedo likes to war, but I think Estrada has enough in him to stay on his feet here for ten rounds and make it competitive in the early stages of the fight. Escobedo only loses this if he disrespects Estrada. Saul Alvarez vs. Matthew Hatton I don't think I need a hell of a lot of reasoning here, as Pete and Johnny have already said everything there is about this fight. I would take Alvarez in rounds 1-6, but the odds have dropped to low for my liking there, as Alvarez might be there to put on a bit of a show for a couple of rounds before taking him out in the middle stages of the fight. To end it on a high, this fight is a farce and an embarrassment to boxing :D Zab Judah vs. Kaizer Mabuza Zab Judah is an odd guy with weird press releases. Don't know how many times he's "found himself" again and ready for another go at a title. He faces a live underdog in Kaizer Mabuza this Saturday, who demolished an unmotivated Kendall Holt to earn his shot at the title. Judah should win this, because Mabuza is as crude as they come, but I've straddled Judah by decision with Mabuza by decision because the style of the South African could be what breaks Judah in the latter stages, as the pressure intensifies and Mabuza keeps volume punching. Mabuza has a decent beard IMO, and I think that Judah's pop seems to have fizzed out a bit over the years. Still, a focused Judah is up there with the top 140s right now. Gary Sykes vs. Carl Johanneson Not sure what to make of this fight. I'm a fan of Sykes, and don't know what to expect from Johanneson since he's been out of the limelight from the Kevin Mitchell fight. I like Sykes here, and I think that 1/2 at SkyBet is good value. Sykes' power is underrated, but I don't think he has enough of it to hurt Johanneson at all here. Sykes by decision. Apologies Superfoo for not stating earlier that I was straddling the Acosta/Rios fight, and thanks for all the work you do tabulating the P/L totals :ok Good luck everyone :hope

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Good start to March with an Escobedo win yesterday, another one for tonight. Adrien Broner (vs. Daniel Ponce de Leon) @ 1.73 [bet365] (5 points) I just can't help but feel that this is a pure money grab and cashout from PDL. Campaigning at featherweight and being a Golden Boy fighter must be tough, but two risk his top 10 ranking for a fight with an up and coming prospect two divisions higher than his natural weight class seems desperate from me. But anyway, regardless of how you view Broner as a fighter, he's got the tools to beat PDL here. He's the bigger guy, got a good jab, is quick on his feet and got pop behind his punches. He hasn't faced anywhere near the level of competition that PDL will pose to him, but I still think that his style is kryptonite for PDL. *If you want to increase the odds, you can add Gary Sykes (4/9) or Zab Judah (1/2) to the price in a double or even a treble, but because I have selections including those fighters I'm leaving them out of this one.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Groves v Allotey Bit late here so want to get it up as part of a double with Sykes. Fancy Groves to get the business done inside the distance even though there are only 8 ROUNDS. dURING HIS CAREER THE African has only fought 2 people who have won a fight and he lost one of those. Brought in for Groves to look good and I think he will considering the jump in class for his opponent. 20pts double Groves bt Allotey soppage 4/7 Boyles Sykes bt Johanneson 4/9 Boyles Justify Sykes in a bit.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Sykes v Johanneson I think a bit too much has been made of Sykes ko loss in Prizefighter. As we know this is a different ball game, Sykes could well have been a little careless knowing it was only 3 rounds. I felt CJ was on the decline before his loss to Mitchell and unless he lands flush on Sykes I see Sykes workrate and busy punching being a bit too much. CJ has fought questionable opposition since the 2 year layoff after Mitchell and his fighting weight has never been below 138 in those, so he will be over half a stone less in this and will be making 130 for the first time in 3 years. I wonder how much CJ has left and wouldnt be surprised if Sykes caused a referee intervention late on despite only having 5 stoppages thus far in his career. Already on the double but also going 5pts Sykes bt Johanneson 7-12 5/1 Skybet

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread One bet for me tonight: Judah to stop Mabuza. I haven't seen anything of Mabuza, but I've seen plenty of Zab and going by Mabuza's record he's going to be completely outclassed. At 33 this is really Judah's last chance at breaking right back into the mix at 140 and spoiling the Bradley/Khan party. I think he's going to win and aim to look good whilst doing it. Judah to beat mabuza by KO/TKO etc. @3.75 (bet365) I'm really tempted to have a tickle at Alvarez to beat Hatton in the first half, but I can't make my mind up

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Whilst Im going to probably go for a similar bet, tread carefully there Pul. Zab was pretty fortunate last time out and of late seems like an 8 round fighter. But like i say I think Im gonna go Judah 1st 6:unsure Also, put your stake on if you want it in the table?:ok

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Judah v Mabuza Pretty difficult to weigh up in my opinion and money has shown for the dog Mabuza. I like Judah to win but am in no way as convinced as Paul. Zab can look amazing in the first 3 or 4 and indeed gave Floyd a good run at the beginning but late on he ALWAYS seems to fade, others have alludeed to negative energy used by Judah. Judah though can be exposive in those early rounds. His gas tank nearly let him down against Matthyse when decked late on in a win some many felt controversial with Argentinian coming on strong at a wilted Zab at the end. At 33 its deffo last chance saloon but Im not sure if he is not showing some wear and tear and despite sometimes looking great Zab has never beaten a 'world class' fighter except for maybe Spinks at the time. That said there is only Tszyu that has ever beaten him at light welter. Mabuza is undefeated in 9 but his best wins have come since his losses in cluding twice going to home territory as the dog and spoiling the party in his last two fights. He will bring pressure which Judah will not like. That said he has not fought in over a year since the Holt win and will get no favours on the cards on the liked Duvas show. Bit lost on what to bet here as I like Judah to win but would belooking at more 4/6 and his stamina late on does worry me. Tbh the Judah decision is my most favourable outcome but at 11/8 there are far too many intangibles. May also take a late ko for Maubuza but will see, just have the foolowing at the moment for what I see as a value bet. Recommended bets 5pts Judah bt Mabuza 1-6 7/1 SportingBet

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I take it it's too late to put my stake in?:lol Never mind. The Holt win and articles that had popped up here and there proclaiming him to be a live dog had clouded peoples judgement regarding Mabuza. He's not in Judah's league. This result has buggered things right up at LWW. I think the Khan/Bradley unification now won't happen and Khan will fight Judah. Bradley will probably move up to 147 again seeing as there's nothing left for him at 140.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

- Vicente Escobedo (vs. Walter Estrada) x Zab Judah (vs. Kaizer Mabuza) x Saul Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ (vs. Matthew Hatton) @ 2.35 [sportingBet] (15 points) LOSS - Vicente Escobedo by decision (vs. Walter Estrada) @ 15/8 [sportingBet] (5 points) WIN - Zab Judah by decision (vs. Kaizer Mabuza) @ 11/10 [skyBet] (7 points) LOSS - Kaizer Mabuza by decision (vs. Zab Judah) @ 5/1 [skyBet] (1.5 points) LOSS - Gary Sykes by decision (vs. Carl Johansson) @ 5/4 [stanJames] (5 points) WIN Because I feel lucky :lol - Zab Judah by decision x Gary Sykes by decision x Saul Alvarez by KO/TKO/DQ x Vicente Escobedo by decision @ 17.60/1 [sportingBet] (1 point) LOSS - Adrien Broner (vs. Daniel Ponce de Leon) @ 1.73 [bet365] (5 points) WIN
-5.24 because of Alvarez's inability to stop Hatton :spank
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