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2011 Boxing Thread


DafsT

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread :welcometofu and good stuff Jamie:ok Taken a bit of a sabbatical on this due to college and various other reasons but will hopefully get more involved again. Hope to update the tables in next week or 2. Hopefully post a couple of selections as well, though my internet is playing up and Im struggling to research as much as Id like but theres a couple of things I fancy coming up. Hoping to get my P/L going in the 2nd half of the year.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Olofabi v Dunstan This is not a tip as such but I think Dunstan is overpriced. Olafabi, famous over here for his ko of Enzo is a good operator BUT he seems to be very lazy in his fights. Well known for being a sparring partner for the Klitsckos (predominantly Vlad) he seems to that mentality to his pro competitive fights and can be outworked. That said his chin is solid and he has only lost to the busy Huck and an early loss to border contender Alan Greene. Everything is against Dunstan in this one. The quality of opponent is better and ideeally he would need the unlikely stoppage which considering Olafabis elusive style and chin is unlikely. Dunstan though is better than his display in Prizefighter and if he can find the energy to convincingly outwork the mainly countering Olafabi he has a chance. I admit this is slim but I still think he is a little better than a 10/1 dog simply due to Olafabis work rate. For interest purposes and a touch of loyalty I guess Im going to back Dunstan at the odds which are pretty large. Recommended bet 2pts Dunstan bt Olofabi Dec/TD 20/1 Skybet 1pt Dunstan bt Olofabi 10/1 VC

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Hi Gents..... New to the forum :ok I'm pretty into boxing, rugby, cricket and football and like a punt so I've decided to join this forum to see if I can pick up some decent moneymaking opportunities or take advice from others on what to leave alone.... and hopefully pass on tips to you all. Looking at Haye vs Klitschko, I think the styles match up pretty strongly in Klitschko's favour. Whilst Haye is fast and powerful, his output in his HW fights has generally been pretty low, and he can be tagged with jabs and right hands - if you watch the Ruiz and Mormeck fights this is pretty clear. Klitschko is deceptively quick and is far, far superior to any fighter David has ever shared the ring with. I can see a relatively sedate opening, with both men being wary of the other before Haye begins to tire in the mid-rounds and is halted late on. Prediction - Klitschko by 8th round stoppage. Bet - Klitschko in rounds 7-12, 11/4 with Skybet. :hope

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread David Haye 25(23)-1(1) v Wladimir Klitchko 55(49)-3(3) Well the fight we've been waiting for is only 5 days away. David Haye comes into this unification fight with the WBA version of the heavyweight championship and currently ranked at 3 by Boxrec behind Wladimir and brother Vitali. Haye has an impressive KO ratio at 92% but it is important to remember the vast majority of these where at Cruiserweight. The one defeat on his record was a stoppage defeat where he gassed badly to Carl Thompson 7 years ago. Since unifying the cruiserweight division and stepping up to heavyweight, Valuev (who in my opinion if it was not for his size would be knowhere near championship level) aside has yet to face a top contender, and let's not forget he only got a MD in that fight. Haye was also a proven amatuer once winning a World Silver Medal. He undoubtedly has the power and speed to trouble Klit, but there will always be the doubts about his stamina. He's only gone 12 rounds twice in his career, and in the fight against Valuev he was hardly made to fight every minute of every round. Moving on to Klitchko, he is the current WBO, IBF and IBO champion ranked number 1 by Boxrec and number 2 in the P4P list. He has a staggering 49 KO wins from his 55 wins. He has been fighting on the World seen for over a decade and has seen off most challengers in this time. He does have 3 stoppage defeats on his record, 1 of these however was due to gassing later on in the fight. His last defeat was also 7 years ago. Kiltchko also has the amateur pedigree being a former Olympic Gold medalist. Wlad is known for his robotic style and his concussive jabs. Summary I really fancy Wlad for this one. He has height and reach advantage and is naturally the bigger man. Also he has faught higher calibre opponents in the division. He also has the advantage of the fight being in Germany should the jusged scorecards be required. Im predicting a mechanical beatdown with Haye being jabbed to death. If Haye is going to win this fight, he has to get to Wlad early and dent his confidence. Recommended Bet With the magnitude of this fight alot of the value has been sucked out. A few bets that look interesting at the minute: Wladimir Klithcko Outright @ 8/13 (Coral) (I'm tempted to wait with this one as his price may drift with all the late patriotic money coming for Haye) Haye Round 1-4 @ 11/2 (SkyBet) Haye Round 12 @ 40/1 (Various) (eason for this is if this goes to the 12th, Haye will not want to rely on the judges and he has the KO power) ... and one for you Haye backers; David Haye Sports Personality of the Year @ 10/1 (Victor Chandler) (Should he win on Saturday, he will be alot shorter than this!)

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Thanks mate. Depending on who you are backing it might be worth thinking carefully about timing the bet. If you fancy a Haye win I'd get on now, because the patriotic betting always brings these fights closer. Hatton vs Mayweather was really close before the fight I recall. Most bookies are pretty similar on this fight I see. For more obscure fights that are likely to see less betting always have a look at Sportingbet. When the market opened they were offering 9/4 on Danny Williams being stopped last weekend. Needless to say this was quickly posted across the boxing forums and was bet down to 1/3 within a couple of hours.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread David Haye to beat Wladimir Klitschko @ 13/8 BET 365 Strength: 9/10 Both men look and sound confident in the build up this mega fight, however I'll go with my strong initial instinct (based on their styles and mindset) and go with Haye to do a number on Wlad. I think he'll knock him out but I've decided to just go with the outright to be safe, and I expect the odds to come in for Haye as the Brits pile on closer to the weekend, so I'll strike now. Haye for me, while at an obvious disadvantage - or a supposed disadvantage - in terms of height, reach, and weight, is a fighter and athlete that Wlad hasn't seen in all his years of being a heavyweight. He's either fought powerful stationary targets, or slippery feather-fists. Both types enable him to fight in his comfort zone, and go through his pre-programmed repertoire of jab, jab, jab - right hand - jab - grab- and grab some more, with the odd left hook. However he's fighting a boxer in Haye who has both athleticism and power ; a combo which I am certain will give him fits and as Haye said today, will make him 'malfunction' and come apart at the seams. When the fight becomes "unscripted" Haye will prosper and Klitschko's mechanical inability to improvise and give a punch to take one will be exposed. As he said himself he's not a "natural fighter" - his brother Vitaly is. How long Klitschko lasts will depend of course on how he handles Haye power, so there is a possibility that Wlad will only start to the crumble late on and survive to hear the bell. I think if that happens he will have been in survival mode for a while and Haye will get the verdict. However I expect a stoppage.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'd like to add a bit more to my previous post... David Haye Speed Power (Especially Big Right hand) Lunges forward with weak right jab Possible stamina issues Possibly vulnerable to the right jab Wladimir Klitchko Power Strong jab Vulnerable to a left hand Vulnerable against Southpaws Conculsion For Haye to win this fight he needs to tighten up defensively and avoid Wlads jab. His best chance his to get to Wlad early. I would not be surprised if the surprise tactics Haye claims to have instore would be to switch hit or even adopt a southpaw stance. Wlad on the other hand needs to keep Haye at bay and to make him work. He needs to pepper Haye with the jab which he seems vulnerable to. Do this and he'll wear him down. Revised Bets Wladimir Klitchko KO/ TKO/ DQ @ 11/8 (Blue Square) David Haye Round 1-4 @ 5/1 (Paddy Power)

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Sorry for the delays guys but I have been manic with college and then playing catch up on everything else. Anyway finally started to update the monthly tables and March is below. Another profitable month for the thread:clap Please, if you wish to include your selections in the table post a stake the bet and current odds available.

March

Bet No.

Post

Selection

Stake

P/L

Cum P/L

LFCPete

16

99

Alvarez stop Hatton (various)

25

-25

-25

17

125

Burns bt Laryea Dec and 7-12

10.5

0

-25

18

125

McEwan v Lee +9.5

7.5

5.03

-19.97

19

125

Foreman bt Wolak Dec

7.5

-7.5

-27.47

20

125

Martinez bt Dzinzuruk Dec

10.5

-10.5

-37.97

21

131

Cotto bt Mayorga Dec (with late stoppage cover)

7

0

-37.97

22

136

Afolabi bt Suda Dec

8.75

-8.75

-46.72

23

136

Klitschko bt Solis 7-12 (Dec cover)

14

-14

-60.72

24

136

Rigondeaux bt Casey 7-12 with other various

10.25

-10.25

-70.97

25

136

Bute bt Magee 7-12 (Dec cover)

10

12.5

-58.47

26

136

Walsh/Rigo/Klit/Bute accy

10

8

-50.47

27

138

Klitschko bt Solis Retired (exact method)

1.5

-1.5

-51.97

J0hnnyTightlips

4

102

Alvarez bt Hatton 1-6

10

-10

-10

5

103

Burns bt Laryea

100

22.22

12.22

DafsT

8

112

Judah/Mabuza decision

8.5

-8.5

-8.5

9

112

Sykes bt Johansson decision

5

6.25

-2.25

10

112

Escobedo bt Estrada Dec

5

9.37

7.12

11

112

Judah/Sykes/Alvarez stoppage accy

15

-15

-7.87

12

114

Broner bt Ponce DeLeon

5

3.66

-4.21

13

124

Vazquez bt Zappavigna Dec

4

6.4

2.19

14

124

Burns bt Laryea Dec

5

-5

-2.81

15

124

Dzinzuruk bt Martinez Dec

2

-2

4.81

16

124

Foreman Dec/Vasquez Dec double

10

-10

-14.81

Superfoo

10

115

Groves stoppage/Sykes double

20

25.4

25.4

11

116

Sykes bt Johansson 7-12

5

-5

20.4

12

119

Judah bt Mabuza 1-6

5

-5

15.4

13

126

Burns bt Laryea 7-9/10-12 split

6

13.5

28.9

14

128

Vazquez bt Zappavigna Dec

30

45

73.9

15

129

Cotto bt Mayorga Dec (with late stoppage cover)

31

20.5

94.4

16

130

Dzinzuruk bt Martinez

6

-6

88.4

17

141

Reed bt Ainscough KO/TKO/DQ

5

-5

83.4

18

141

Dilks bt Smyle KO/TKO/DQ

5

-5

78.4

19

141

Fielding bt Maxwell Dec/TD

5

-5

73.4

20

141

Webb bt Reid by Dec/TD

5

8.75

82.15

21

141

Reed win prizefighter

5

-5

77.15

22

144

Webb win Prizefighter

5

-5

72.15

wrimc

6

137

Walsh bt Kays Dec

5

-5

-5

7

137

Rigondeaux bt Casey 1-12

50

40

35

8

137

Klitschko bt Solis Retired (exact method)

2

-2

33

Total

50.59

DafsT

PaulM03

LtfcPete

Superfoo

wrimc

J0hnny

Jan

-18

-4.7

71.46

-3.25

0

10

Feb

18.3

0

70.54

92.68

-11

17.2

Mar

-14.81

0

-51.97

72.15

33

12.22

Total

-14.51

-4.7

90.03

161.58

22

39.42

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Forgot the totals...

DafsT

PaulM03

LtfcPete

Superfoo

wrimc

J0hnny

Total

Jan

-18

-4.7

71.46

-3.25

0

10

55.51

Feb

18.3

0

70.54

92.68

-11

17.2

187.72

Mar

-14.81

0

-51.97

72.15

33

12.22

50.59

Total

-14.51

-4.7

90.03

161.58

22

39.42

293.82

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

Good call but never looked like stopping Margarito? :eek The fight should of been stopped almost every second of the last 3/4 rounds. Getting in early with this one..... Wladimir Klitchko to beat David Haye via TKO, KO or DQ 11/8 sporting bet. Really don’t get where all the Haye optimism comes from, he laboured to a (controversial) split decision over Valuev by picking counter shots, if he needs to move and counter to avoid the punch power of Valuev then how on earth is he going ...to get through the jab of Wlad who is ten times faster than Val and hits 20 times harder? Haye has been put on his backside by Barrett and Mormeck so if Wlad lands anything half decent on him he is going to go. They all say they have a plan to beat Dr S and whenever they feel the first cross they spend the rest of the fight going backwards and any plan they had flies out the window. The British fans always get like this when a big fight comes up, starting to remind me of the time the whole country thought Hatton was going to beat Mayweather and Pacquiao. Odds-against for what is clearly a an odds on shot.
You putting a stake to that Matt?
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Only 3 bets made in April - all by myself and all losers:$

April

Superfoo

23

150

Hall v Donelly +8.5

10

-10

-10

24

150

Stieglitz bt Gevor Dec

10

-10

-20

25

150

Above double

10

-10

-30

DafsT

PaulM03

LtfcPete

Superfoo

wrimc

J0hnny

Total

Jan

-18

-4.7

71.46

-3.25

0

10

55.51

Feb

18.3

0

70.54

92.68

-11

17.2

187.72

Mar

-14.81

0

-51.97

72.15

33

12.22

50.59

Apr

0

0

0

-30

0

0

-30

Total

-14.51

-4.7

90.03

131.58

22

39.42

263.82

That was the first losing month, shame on me!
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Near enough held our own in May but again only 3 bets and all on Pac v Mosely.

May

Quackers

1

156

Pacquiao bt Mosely stoppage

10

-10

-10

Kevshat

1

160

Pacquiao bt Mosely UD

5

10

10

wrimc

9

161

Pacquiao bt Mosely RTD

5

-5

-5

Total

-5

DafsT

PaulM03

LtfcPete

Superfoo

wrimc

J0hnny

Quackers

Kevshat

Total

Jan

-18

-4.7

71.46

-3.25

0

10

0

0

55.51

Feb

18.3

0

70.54

92.68

-11

17.2

0

0

187.72

Mar

-14.81

0

-51.97

72.15

33

12.22

0

0

50.59

Apr

0

0

0

-30

0

0

0

0

-30

May

0

0

0

0

-5

0

-10

10

-5

Total

-14.51

-4.7

90.03

131.58

17

39.42

-10

10

258.82

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I agree with Matt's assessment of this fight. Too many people picking Haye are doing so either through blind patriotism or just listening to Steve Bunce's incredibly biased pro-Haye pieces. Even on the boxing forums, people who's opinion I respect are just assuming Haye will hit Klitschko once and he'll go over, conveniently forgetting Haye's glaring weaknesses. If someone can present me with a clear, concise argument as to why Haye will win this fight, without saying ''hit him once and......'' I'm all ears. This just reminds me of people picking Tyson before he fought Lennox. I see a similar outcome on Saturday.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Ola Afolabi 16(7)-2(0) v Terry Dunstan 24(14)-3(2) Only a short write up for this one; Afolabi's career is on the up whereas Dunstan's is on the decline - in fact he only returned to the ring in 2011 after retiring in 1999. Afolabi's most recent loss a UD by current WBO champ Marco Huck, his other defeat was earlier in his career. Dunstan on the other hand has been KO'd twice in his career including the infamous double knockdown v Thompson which sent him into retirement. I feel his come forward style will suit Afolabi who can be an effective counter puncher. Recomended Bet In order to squeeze some value dutch Afolabi to win in Rnd 5 @ 12/1 (Boylesports), Rnd 6 @ 10/1 (Various) and Rounds 7-12 @ 9/4 (Skybet) at a combined odds of 4/6. Or the lazy mans option of Afolabi KO/TKO/DQ @ 4/7 (Various)

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread

I'd like to add a bit more to my previous post... Wladimir Klitchko Vulnerable to a left hand Vulnerable against Southpaws Conculsion For Haye to win this fight he needs to tighten up defensively and avoid Wlads jab. His best chance his to get to Wlad early. I would not be surprised if the surprise tactics Haye claims to have instore would be to switch hit or even adopt a southpaw stance. Wlad on the other hand needs to keep Haye at bay and to make him work. He needs to pepper Haye with the jab which he seems vulnerable to. Do this and he'll wear him down.
Did anybody see the open training session today where Haye adopted a southpaw stance? Wether this was mind games or not is anyboys guess. But I predicted he would use this stance at some point in the fight yesterday, I also claimed Wlad was vulnerable to a left hand... Hayes said the left cross would be a big weapon of his come saturday...
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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'm sure it's mindgames. Haye's best punch is his looping overhand right, that would be gone adopting the southpaw stance. They're obviously aware that Wlad's attack comes from his jab, the southpaw stance offsets that to a degree, but then brings the lead right into play if Wlad uses it in a way that typical Steward fighters do. Wlad has the best punch of the two with his left hook - it's f**king murderous, but he doesn't often use it because he can beat people using his one-two easily enough anyway. If David starts leaping in with shots too much he'll get nailed at some point. David's best chance is to catch Wlad with a blind punch he didn't see. Balls to the unorthodoxy, just try and slip the jab and counter over the top. Brilliant jabbers can be offset by having the right in their face, or knowing the right will be in there if they aren't quite right. For me, watch Sugar Ray Leonard vs Thomas Hearns I. Hearns is the taller man, has the better jab and a big right hand. Haye fancies himself as a Leonard, but his left hook is nowhere near good enough to catch Wlad if he overreaches in with his jab. It wouldn't surprise me to see Wlad bang him out in the second (watch the second round of recent Klit fights - he always goes big). Haye really isn't that good/proven, Holyfield did a better job on Valuev than he did, and Ruiz was beyond shot at the time. Wlad is a beast - a truly awesome fighting machine.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Good stuff tofutez, leeds legend, matt and jamiedavies. Please though guys if you want bets in the table please stake your bets in accordance with thread. Not bothered if you dont, I just wont include it in the table. Either way your input is invaluable and appreciated.:ok

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread I'm copying over my blog post till I get permission. Tip: Klitschko to win 8/13 (BetFred) TV: SkySports Box Office est 10.15 PM Stakes: WBA,IBF,WBO Heavyweight Championships. Although I haven't been involved in the sport for as long as some, I can't help but spot the same old patterns and cliches that pop up in the sport of Boxing. In the build up to a big fight, we continually hear how confident fighter 'A' looks, or how we can something in someones eyes during press conferences. Journalists, during ultra hype mode, literaly try and convince us and themselves that one fighter actually has more than a chance in a particular match up, when in reality the classic indicators of form, styles and experience tell us otherwise. Two recent examples of this; Miguel Cotto vs Yuri Foreman and David Haye vs Audley Harrison shown that even the most articulate and knowledgable Boxing fans get caught up in the build up to a fight. Foreman in Max Kellermans words was a 'curosity', someone that had a great story, punters wanted him to win. In the case of Haye/Harrison, plenty of broadcasters were left with egg on their face as they attemtped to sell the fight to the casual viewer. This is another example of people betting with their heart rather than their head, in some cases it's just plain old patriotic gambling, the type Bookies really like. I would rather put to one side these distractions and focus on the match up itself, let's start with the respective approach of each fighter and how it will effect this fight. Klitschko in my opinion, is the best jabber in the sport (relevant as Ruiz landed far to many jabs on Haye) has one of the most effective defenses, perhaps has the best heavyweight trainer ever in Manny Steward who has masterminded many successful gameplans in the division, a brutal straight right hand, an excellent understanding of range and underated speed, ask Eddie Chambers. His detractors and previous opponents all say the same thing; get inside, hurt him, go to the body and so on. Not only do they fail to replicate these words into actions, they fail to even attempt to implement this tactics, usually because they freeze or have poor conditioning in comparision to Wladimir, this won't happen with Haye. But what will is the sudden reliastion of Haye's fans that the Londoner does not have the tools to beat Klitschko, he is not an inside fighter. He also relies on range, timing and mistakes from his opponent, take a look at the Maccarinelli bout. Haye obviously has speed and power, but will the most conservative boxer on the planet let him use these attributes? I think not. The fight will be a potshotting chess match, with a knockdown very likely and knockout likely. If you are wondering why I have gone for Klitschko to win only, it's because you will never get odds of above 1/2 on in a Klitschko fight, never. Take these odds, it's a safe bet and remember Klitschko can beat Haye in more ways than Haye can beat Klitschko.

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread Haye's conditioning isn't brilliant to be honest. He always looks in shape but is generally exhausted after four or five rounds, his legs completely gone. He's losing this fight, and losing big - and will look a prized clown after all the smack talk. And I can't wait :nana:clap:drums:cheers

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Re: 2011 Boxing Thread The grouped round betting market is up on Sportingbet for Bute vs Mendy. Rounds 1-6 is priced at 6/5 - get on it quick, it ought to be 1/4. It's yet another dreadful error by the traders at SB. Mendy was close to being blasted out inside a round by Sakio Bika, who was dominated by Bute four years ago. Bute has stopped his last five, generally late but this dude is terrible, and hasn't fought for a year. Despite being unbeaten he's not fought anyone of note, Bika aside. Footage of that fight is on YT.

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