staffy Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Good luck mate' date=' I admire you playing 1 table of full ring.. it's so slow it would make me go all in every hand![/quote'] I am doing other stuff as well. So not that bad. Can be slow though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge 173 hands played tonight and won $5.21. Got lucky holding KQ when AA slow played and I hit 2 pair on the river. We were all in on the turn though so affected my EV. (dont tell trev ffs) Overall 1243 hands played for a profit of $15.93 which is a bb/100 of 12.82. My all in EV is around $3.40 so I must be a very lucky player. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge 173 hands played tonight and won $5.21. Got lucky holding KQ when AA slow played and I hit 2 pair on the river. We were all in on the turn though so affected my EV. (dont tell trev ffs) :rollin:rollin:rollin Well done tonight, maybe you should change your username to 'lucky' :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Lets see if lucky can get lucky again tonight on table mothallah VI. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 5, 2011 Author Share Posted April 5, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Average night. Played 162 hands for a profit of $1.49 Overall played 1405 hands for a profit of $17.42 which is a BB/100 of 12.40. My All in EV is now around $5.00 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 6, 2011 Author Share Posted April 6, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Played 171 hands tonight was $3 down at one point finished $0.97 up. Overall played 1576 hands for a profit of $18.39 which is a bb/11 of 11.67. My all ev is a fraction under $6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Had a shocker so far tonight. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge My all in EV now -1 which gives you an idea. So according to that I am a terrible payer and cant even beat $0.05 level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I am a terrible payer and cant even beat $0.05 level. It's either that, or your sample size is still too small to read anything significant into ;) Any mathematicians able to tell staffy what the range is for his ev profit to, say, 2 standard deviations (that's 95% confidence?). I know you'll need extra info, but not sure exactly what..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I have played 250+ hands tonight Gaf and hardly had a card tbh. When I did I have TT and played it badly more through frustration and lost to KK. I even had him on KK or AA so should have folded. 2% PFR is very low for me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 7, 2011 Author Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge 293 hands played for a loss of $5.86 overall 1869 hands played for a profit of $12.53 which is a bb/100 of 6.70 Still happy with the bb/100 would like it to be 10 at these lavels but profit is profit. My PFR was very low tonight so know where I am going wrong just need to work out how to correct that. My all in ev is now just above 0 so at least i know I dont lose money. :tongue2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted April 7, 2011 Share Posted April 7, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge If you want you could send me all your HH files since you began this challenge to give you confidence in the things you're doing well and try and fix some leaks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Ok if you want to PM me your email address where you want me to send them to I will do that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge My all in EV now -1 which gives you an idea. So according to that I am a terrible payer and cant even beat $0.05 level. Well you've played less than 2k hands so far; to put that into perspective most online players play more hands than that in a short session, and for them it's normal to have a -5 BI session as long as they win at a good clip. For me a normal session can see me go from -2 BIs to +3 BIs, and then back to breakeven in 2 hours. I play more tables and a far more aggressive game though but you get the point. It is good to not be overconfident but then again you can't be too pessimistic. Some will say that you need to play 100k hands to find out whether you can be a winner at a stake but I would say 10-20k would give a very decent picture at nl5 (especially since you're 1 tabling right?). You might want to consider adding at least one more table though, I'm pretty sure you would be able to handle it as you are going to have alot of time still. And everyone is going to have some leaks in their game, so yea getting Nade to check those hands out would be a good idea too:ok As to why your PFR is too low, it's very important to look through your hands and identify areas where you would normally raise but decided to choose a more passive option. One main reason is playing scared due to decreased confidence from events like a downswing. If you see that it's just cos you're being dealt total rags then it's okay (since you're one tabling). Poker is all about dynamics though so your PFR should definitely not be as low as 2%; you're giving up far too many +EV spots here and there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Any mathematicians able to tell staffy what the range is for his ev profit to, say, 2 standard deviations (that's 95% confidence?). I know you'll need extra info, but not sure exactly what..... Just keyed in some of his data into a poker variance analyzer I got off the internet quite some time back. Using a standard deviation of 75, which is probably quite pessimistic given staffy's style of play, I am told that there is a 65% chance that staffy is a long term winner. However, at this standard deviation, you would need a sample size of just over 2 million hands to get within a 1ptBB/100 resolution of his winrate with 95% confidence. Double the SD to 150, and the sample size shoots up to 8 million. So as you can see, 2000 hands is really a small sample size, do not worry too much! If I used his all-in EV, and entered something like 0.1bb/100 as the winrate, there is a 50.2% chance that staffy is a long term winner. Once again small sample size though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 8, 2011 Author Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Thanks averick. I am going to start playing 2 games at the same time. I think I know where I am going wrong and at the moment that is pre flop. Need to raise more often instead of being to passive. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 8, 2011 Share Posted April 8, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge If you want you could send me all your HH files since you began this challenge to give you confidence in the things you're doing well and try and fix some leaks. That looks a fantastic opportunity Staffy - hopefully you'll learn loads (you should do) :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted April 9, 2011 Share Posted April 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Have had a look at the 3sessions you've given me Staffy and you have really good positional VPIP stats but you should raise your PFR. If you open nearly all broadways, some suited Aces and most pairs you can get your PFR to around 11/12%. That will make you harder to play against as you go into hands with the aggression so you'll be able to manage pots better and you'll be able to bluff if necessary. Your PFR is so low right now if people paid attention they'd know you always have a value hand post flop if you raise with 4% PFR. You should look to steal really often. Stealing is when you open from CO, BTN or SB - you can get this to 30% just by opening the range i said above plus a few more suited hands. Stealing is basically free money - people fold the blinds too often so you can take their blind either pre-flop or just put in a continuation bet on the flop. Some people have as high as 50% steal but the norm is between 30-40%. Will look through in more detail later on mate :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 9, 2011 Author Share Posted April 9, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Played a lot better this morning. Gone back to playing how I want to play as well. Past few days I was following a guide on what to play and where which I know is stupid. Played two tables. table 1 played 291 hands for a profit of $2.30 which is a bb/100 of 7.90. table 2 played 286 hands for a profit of $4.66 which is a bb/1oo of 16.29 Overall now played 2446 hands for a profit of $19.49 which is a bb/100 of 7.97 Now got over $60 in stars account so getting there. My All in EV is around $6.00 so a good session Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 11, 2011 Author Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Another good day today. Played 4 sessions today 2 tables at a time. Dealt 680 hands for a profit of $5.99 which is a bb/100 of 8.81 Overall now been dealt 3126 hands for a profit of $25.48 which is a bb/100 of 6.87 My all in EV is around $11.80 Stars balance now showing at $66.32 FPP balance is 2911 which is worth $25 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 11, 2011 Share Posted April 11, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Nice one mate, glad to see you getting back on track :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nade Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Have looked through the hands you've given me and you play really well, the only thing i can say is on the 56s hand where you flop trips you can raise a lot bigger on the river than $1.80 over their bet of $.70 - you can make it about $2.5 and still get calls - a general point is try to maximise your bets when you have the best hand as no matter what size you make it if people want to level themselves into calling with a weak hand then they'll do it anyway so you may as well make it as big as possible. Keep going :ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 12, 2011 Author Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Another winning day which is nice. Played 253 hands for a profit of $1.89 which is a bb/11 of 7.47. Overall played 2916 hands for a profit of $27.19 which is a bb/100 of 8.09 All in EV is around $14 balance on stars now stands at $68.21 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
averick Posted April 12, 2011 Share Posted April 12, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge great job mate, keep it up!:ok Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 13, 2011 Author Share Posted April 13, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Rubbish tonight lots of good hands outdrawn but thats life I guess. $5.67 down after 425 hands Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 14, 2011 Share Posted April 14, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Rubbish tonight lots of good hands outdrawn but thats life I guess. This is where you'll notice the "flip side" to EV ;) You didn't like it before because when your good hands held up, the all in ev didn't count the full win. However, when you lose with the best hand (when the money goes in), as you say happened last night, then you will still "get the win" in your all in ev and still show a profit. If you were getting all in last night with the best hand, then your all in ev should still have shown as positive, even though you lost money :ok (and over time, your all in ev will end up at about the same place as your actual winnings when your hands hold up minus your losses when you are outdrawn) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 15, 2011 Author Share Posted April 15, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Having a nightmare at the moment. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I have now played 5761 hands for a profit of $29.49 which is a BB/100 of 5.12. My All in EV is a little lower than I would like but I played terrible last night. Its around $12. (Still learning though):tongue2 My balance on stars is now $70 so the highest its been for a while. My FPP stands at 2976 which is worth $25 I am also 37.8% of the way to getting another free $10. All in all quite happy with the way it is going. Had a mare last night but I think it was my fault and not playing aggressive enough or laying down when I knew I was beat. Playing a minimum of 10000 hands in total before I consider moving up. If after that 10000 hands I have a BB/100 of 1 I would be happy but if balance is near $100 I will move up a level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 16, 2011 Author Share Posted April 16, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I think I have been very lucky recently as my all EV is around $5 now which is not good. I guess I am not quite defeating this level. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 16, 2011 Share Posted April 16, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Your EV is showing a profit. Why do you think that means you are not beating the level? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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