GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I think you're misunderstanding All-in ev staffy - I'll try and work out some examples in a minute and put them up..... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge How do I post a graph here. Just tried and it wont let me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge How do I post a graph here. Just tried and it wont let me. You need to take a screen print (If you have windows, then you probably have the "snipping tool" installed), save the picture, upload it to a hosting site like www.imageshack.us and then post the "Forum Code" in your post Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge OK forget the graph for now as its irrelevant. I really dont understand what I am doing wrong then, I dont feel I have been lucky in any pots and dont feel I have been unlucky in any pots. I have won hands with not the best cards but at the point the money has gone in I am always ahead that I remember. If this is wrong then whats the point in playing. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge And My other point if I gold to a bluff how does that show on your EV and if I win a hand with a bluff how does that show on EV. I give up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge If you dont go all in before showdown, then your all in ev and your actual winnings are the same. There is no difference. There is only a difference between your all in ev and your actual winnins where you are all in, and there are still cards to be dealt. If you bluff, and you win because your opponent folds, then your all in ev and your actual winnings are exactly the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I really dont understand what I am doing wrong then' date=' I dont feel I have been lucky in any pots and dont feel I have been unlucky in any pots. I have won hands with not the best cards but at the point the money has gone in I am always ahead that I remember.[/quote'] If you always get the money all in as a 70% shot, and you never lose, but win 100% of the time, then you have been lucky because your hand has held up more often than it should. Your all in ev is lower than your actual winnings because you have won more hands than you should. That does not mean that you were wrong to get your money in. Do you want to email me your hand histories and I can tell you where the differences are between your actual winnings and your all in ev (either here, or by PM if you prefer). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I think you're misunderstanding All-in ev staffy - I'll try and work out some examples in a minute and put them up..... I'm struggling to articulate all-in ev - I'm going to try and find an article elsewhere and reference that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
teaulc Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge does this help? Concept: Expected Value The term "Expected Value" (also referred to as "EV" or "Expectation") is used a lot in poker strategy discussions, and if you've wondered what it means but never dared to ask, this is the article for you! The term originates in math (specifically probability mathematics) and is used to describe the long-term average outcome of a given scenario. In order to calculate expected value, you take every possible outcome, multiply each by the probability of that outcome happening, and then adding those numbers altogether. Sounds tricky? Let's look at an example. If you have a die, ordinary randomized six-sided die, and apply the above reasoning to find out what the expected value of rolling the die is, you end up with this: Rolling a "1" has a probability of 1/6. Rolling a "2" has a probability of 1/6. Rolling a "3" has a probability of 1/6. Rolling a "4" has a probability of 1/6. Rolling a "5" has a probability of 1/6. Rolling a "6" has a probability of 1/6. Multiplying the values with their respective probability gives: 1 * 1/6 = 1/6 2 * 1/6 = 2/6 3 * 1/6 = 3/6 4 * 1/6 = 4/6 5 * 1/6 = 5/6 6 * 1/6 = 6/6 Adding them together gives: 1/6 + 2/6 + 3/6 + 4/6 + 5/6 + 6/6 = 3.5 Thus, your expected value of a randomized die is 3.5. What if the die was weighted, so that the number "6" had a 50% chance of coming up? Well, if all the other numbers still had a uniform distribution ("equal chance of coming up in regards to each other"), you get this: 1 * 1/10 = 1/10 2 * 1/10 = 2/10 3 * 1/10 = 3/10 4 * 1/10 = 4/10 5 * 1/10 = 5/10 6 * 1/2 = 3 The sum of which is 4.5. Do you see why all the other numbers now only have a 10% chance of coming up? How does Expected Value relate to Poker? Now, enough with the dice. We're poker players, let's focus on cards. Expected Value is the basis for most non-psychogical poker strategies. Like limping with medium pairs if the pot is not raised and there are other players who limp as well - that's a play that may have positive Expected Value. The poker dilemma, mathematically speaking, is to always make the decision that has the highest expected value (for the sake of stringency it might be worth pointing out that the highest expected value may in some cases be negative, but less negative than any other course of action). To explain how expected value relates to poker, let's work with a (relatively) common scenario. You're playing Texas Hold'em, and you've somehow found yourself heads-up on the river, holding these cards: A♥ J♣ And the board shows: A♣ 10♣ 5♦ 8♣ 3♣ You're in first position, the pot is $100, and the big bet is $10. Do you bet? Let's say, for the sake of argument, that your opponent can hold any two cards and will always fold if he doesn't have a club. Let's also stipulate that he'll call a bet with any club, and make it two bets if he has the K♣ or Q♣. Let's also say that in case you check, he will bet with any club and check with no clubs. Let's do the math. Since he can hold any two cards, each of the individual clubs is as likely to be in his hand (and let's pretend that he can't have two of them - because we know him well enough to know that he would have raised the turn if he did). Note: We do not bother adding in the times when he has no club at all, in these scenarios. Your opponent will fold if you bet, and check if you check in these cases, and you will then always win the pot uncontested. For the mathematically curious, this actually has implications on the expected value for the situation as a whole, but not for the specific purpose that we're discussing it here: Determining the correct strategy. Scenario 1: You bet! If he calls, we know that it will be with an inferior hand because he would have bet a better hand. There are 6 possible clubs that he will call with. So six times, you will win an extra $10. As there are 8 clubs available, the chance of him calling is 6/8 (six out of eight): $10 * 6/8 = $7.5 If he raises, we know that you have a worse hand, and you will have lost $10. -$10 * 2/8 = -$2.5 So your expected value of betting here is $7.5 + (-)2.5 = $5. Not bad. Scenario 2: You check, with the intention of calling if he bets. (As above, you can safely ignore all the times when he has no clubs) 6 times out of 8, you will win when you call his bet, and 2 times you will lose. $10 * 6/8 = $7.5 -$10 * 2/8 = -$2.5 Here, again, is your expected value $5. Okay, so checking is as good as betting in this theoretical situation. What if we check with the intention of raising if he bets? Scenario 3: You check, with the intention of raising if he bets In order to figure this out properly, we now need to stipulate that he will always re-raise with the nuts, so if he does have the K♣, he will re-raise you and you will fold. To avoid adding too much confusion, we will pretend that he will still call your raise with any other club. If he has the K♣ you will fold and lose $20: -$20 * 1/8 = -$2.5 If he has the queen, you will get a showdown, but still lose $20. -$20 * 1/8 = -$2.5 If he has any other club, you will win $20: $20 * 6/8 = $15. Sum: $15 - $2.5 - $2.5 = $10.8. Conclusion on Expected Value In this theoretical situation, your expected value is $6 higher if you check and raise, instead of betting out. To maximize your winnings, therefore, you should always check in this situation, and raise if he bets, because that will give you an average profit that's half a big bet higher than just betting out (or checking and calling). With the relatively small edges that are in effect for poker players, getting those extra 0.5BB in where you can is often the difference between a long term winner and a long term loser. Is this really applicable? Yes, yes it is. In fact, virtually all that is widely considered "correct" poker is based on calculations like these. Check-raising, bluffing, calling with a decent but not strong hand, they're all plays based on the expected value. Of course, no one (okay, almost no one) actually calculates the exact values in their heads right there at the tables, but the strategies we play by are dictated by these numbers. Understanding how it works is not necessary to learn how to play, but it's necessary in order to review and analyze your own decisions, which is a very powerful way to strengthen your own game: Look at a specific hand, ask yourself "how could I have won more?" and do the calculations. Good luck! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge PM where you want me to send them to. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Cheers Al - that's a good intro to ev, I think we just need to find the next step to illustrate how positive all-in ev is a good thing even if it is below what you are actually winning. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Cheers Staffy - you've sent me 636 hands. You made an actual profit of $8.25, but your all-in ev was only $1.60 (Still a profit). For 630 hands, your all in ev and your actual winnings were identical. So we're only looking at 6 hands for the difference. Hand 1: You were all in pre flop with AA against TT, risking $5.24 for a pot of $11.30. You should win 80.7% of the time and lose 19.3% of the time. On this occasion you "got lucky" and your aces held up, giving you the full pot. You made a profit of $2.07 more than you should have done. Think of it that the site has given you an extra $2.07, but that it isn't yours - in the future, the site will ask for this $2.07 back (maybe you will have AA v TT again, but the TT will win). Your "real earned" profit on this hand was $3.99. (The $11.30 you won, minus the $5.24 you put into the pot, minus the $2.07 that the site has "loaned" you). So your all in ev is lower than your actual winnings because you were lucky (your aces held up 100% of the time, when they should only win 80% of the time), BUT your all in ev was still a profit and that shows that you made the right decision to go all in with your hand on this occasion. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Hand 2 You called all in with QQ against JJ, pre flop, risking $3.80 for a pot of $7.90. You were lucky because your QQ won this hand 100% of the time when it is only due to win 81.97% of the time. You took the entire pot of $7.90, but this included a "loan" from the site of $1.35. Your "real earned" profit for this hand was $2.75 (The $7.90 pot minus the $3.80 you put in minus the $1.35 the site has loaned you). So it's still profitable, just not quite as profitable as the money you received. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I now feel depressed over all of this. If my EV is currently only $1 then I have been doing crap. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Hand 3 You went all in pre flop with AA against a micro stack who called with A8s, risking $0.40 to win $0.87. You were lucky because your AA won this hand 100% of the time when it is only due to win 88.03% of the time. You took the entire pot of $0.87, but this included a loan from the site of $0.10. Your real earned profit for this hand was $0.37 ($0.87 minus the $0.40 you put in minus the $0.10 the site loaned you). Hand 4 You went all in on the flop with TTT against QQQ and AKQJT. You risked $4.59 to win a pot of $13.84 3 handed in the main pot where you had a 4.9% chance of winning. You risked $0.16 to win a side pot of $0.32, 2 handed against the AKQJT which you had a 34.8% chance of winning. You were unluck to win the main pot 0% of the time, when you should have won it 4.9% of the time. You got lucky to win the side pot 100% of the time when you should only have won it 34.8% of the time. Overall, you won less in the hand than you should have done and you have repaid the site $0.09 of the loans it previously granted you Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I now feel depressed over all of this. If my EV is currently only $1 then I have been doing crap. You haven't won as much as you thought you had, BUT you've still made a profit! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge You haven't won as much as you thought you had' date=' BUT you've still made a profit![/quote'] He has won exactly what he though he has :ok It's all mumbo jumbo Staffy :loon Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Hand 5 You went all in of the flop with KJ on a KJ6 board against AKs (with flush draw) risking $5.01 to win a pot of $10.09. You were lucky because you won the hand 100% of the time when you should only have won it 55.2% of the time. You took the entire pot of $10.09 which included a loan from the site for $4.30. Your real earned profit on this hand was $0.75 ($10.09 minus the $5.01 you risked minus the $4.30 the site loaned you). Note - YOU STILL MADE A PROFIT ON THIS HAND even after you consider the loan from the site. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So are you telling me I should fold them hands as the risk was to high? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Final Hand, Hand 6 You went all in on the flop with 77 against KK on a board of 642 rainbow. You were unlucky because you won the hand 0% of the time when you should have won it 12% of the time. You repaid the site $1.08 of the loans it had previously given you. So to summarise: Hand 1: lucky - the site loaned you $2.07 Hand 2: lucky - the site loaned you $1.35 Hand 3: lucky - the site loaned you $0.10 Hand 4: unlucky - you repaid loans of $0.09 Hand 5: Lucky - the site loaned you $4.58 Hand 6: unlucky - you repaid loans of $1.08 The net position is that the site has still loaned you $6.93, which it will probably take back from you on some future occasion (for example by making your AA lose to TT) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So in other words noone can ever win. Apart from stars. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So are you telling me I should fold them hands as the risk was to high? Which hand? You were ahead in 4 of the 6 hands when the money went in, so if you knew what your opponent had, then you are definitely right to get it in - regardless of the outcome. (all in ev looks at what you should win, not what you actually do win) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So in other words noone can ever win. Apart from stars. But you won on hands 1, 2, 3 and 5. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So I should be happy that I am running with a bb/100 of around 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 2, 2011 Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge So I should be happy that I am running with a bb/100 of around 10. The way I look at it is that the actual figure of 10 BB per 100 is irrelevent. The important figure is your all in ev BB/100. Your all in ev is a profit of 16 Big Blinds. You have played 636 hands. So your all in ev BB/100 is 2.5. That's a profit. A profit is good :) However, I'm sure you can (and will) win faster than that - 636 hands is a miniscule sample. (all in ev is only looking at 1 type of luck - there are many different forms of luck on the poker table, and the other forms of luck are unmeasurable) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 2, 2011 Author Share Posted April 2, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Played another small session. PLayed 65 hands for a profit of $0.84 Overall showing 1070 hands for a profit of $10.72 which is 10.02 BB/100. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rebel Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Is the All-EV base on your hole cards only or what your hand is in each betting round Example Dealt: AsKs, you contribute 100 units to the pot, 1 caller - What is your All-in EV at this point Folp: 2h7hAd, I now have a pair of AA but there is a Flush draw and straight draw out there - put in another 100 unit into the pot, 1 caller - what is your All-in EV here? Turn: Ah, Improved to a set but now there ae flush possiblities on the board and still the straight draw - put in another 100 units into the pot, 1 caller - what is the All-in EV? River: Kh, Improved to a full house, have a flush beat and at worst will just just split the pot - put in another 100 unit, 1 caller - what is the All-in EV at this point. What is the over all All-in EV for this hand? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaF Posted April 3, 2011 Share Posted April 3, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge I'll start a new thread in the Poker STrategy forum and reply there rather than hijack Staffys thread. (any more :tongue2) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
staffy Posted April 4, 2011 Author Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Just started playing DaphneV1 a nice profit would be good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldric Posted April 4, 2011 Share Posted April 4, 2011 Re: 2011 Stars cash challenge Just started playing DaphneV1 a nice profit would be good. Good luck mate, I admire you playing 1 table of full ring.. it's so slow it would make me go all in every hand! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.
Note: Your post will require moderator approval before it will be visible.