Snooker: UK Championships

[Boycie]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Campbell is even worst. Instead 5-1 lead he is 2-4, just keeping loss frames after leading over 50 points :unsure

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Not my normal style but I'm taking a double. Don't like backing at anything less than 8/11 but I really like the look of these so putting them together for combined odds of 2.3 D.Dale to beat M.Selt, 1/2 SportingBet T.Ford to beat T.Drago, 8/15 SportingBet 3pts double Both these matches start this afternoon, concluding tomorrow, and I fancy the higher ranked players to come out on top, both of whom are PTC winners this season. Matt Selt had a good win in the last round, edging out the very talent Jack Lisowski but Dale represents a different challenge. Dale won their only previous meeting, a 5-1 scoreline at the Welsh Open, and I fully expect him to extend that head to head record. In the other match, Drago won 9-4 against Liam Highfield in the last round but I like Tom here. Both like to attack and score heavily where they can, that will suit Ford. Both Dale and Ford are rising back up the rankings, courtesy of their PTC performances and the fact they sit inside the top 10 on the PTC money list, whilst their respective opponents are both outside the top 50. Recent form also favours the market leaders, Dale reaching round 3 in the last 2 events and Ford reaching the last 16 in 1, whilst exiting the the other in the opening round; however it took the prowess of John Higgins to knock him out both times. Could do with this one to turn the recent tide and get lady luck back on side.

Solid as a rock double which duly obliges. Top stuff mate :clap. Now hopefully Holt can turn his match around :hope.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Dale/Ford double comes in comfortably for a 3.9pt profit. However, with Pinches outright loss factored in, I'm up to +6.15pts. Might have 1 in running tonight.

[Boycie]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Dale/Ford double comes in comfortably for a 3.9pt profit. However' date=' with Pinches outright loss factored in, I'm up to [b']+6.15pts. Might have 1 in running tonight.

nice :clap

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Cheers. I'll be supporting Holt tonight for you, Kev:hope M.Campbell to beat M.Joyce 3pts @ 13/8 Skybet Marcus resumes 5-3 down tonight so we need him to win the session 6-3 or better, something he's well capable of. Was ahead and had chances in nearly every frame this morning and undoubtedly should have been ahead, instead of going in 2 down. Joyce has had 2 wins to reach this stage, both 9-7, but I feel his run will end tonight. If Campbell can convert his chances into frames, he'll run out the winner before facing the Nugget in the final qualifying round. Campbell been in cracking form this term so far, 4th on the PTC money list including a win 4 events ago, where he actually beat Mark Joyce 4-1, ahead of victories against Kyren Wilson, Milkins, Trump, Doherty and Wenbo; some decent scalps there. As always with these in running bets, a good start is essential but if he can win 3 of the first 4 frames before the interval, I'd strongly favour him at 6-6 and, for those punters wishing to play safe, there'll be opportunities to lay off.

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Still any value in a 'confident' Ronnie at 3/1? Or have we missed the value since his convincing Premier league win?

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Still any value in a 'confident' Ronnie at 3/1? Or have we missed the value since his convincing Premier league win?

Not for me, Perry. Tough draw just to reach final as he'll have (most probably) Fu in the 2nd round, Ding in the quarters and either Selby or Higgins in the semi's. In his current form, he's more than capable of beating all of them but not at 3's for me:ok

[PerryPFC]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Not for me' date=' Perry. Tough draw just to reach final as he'll have (most probably) Fu in the 2nd round, Ding in the quarters and either Selby or Higgins in the semi's. In his current form, he's more than capable of beating all of them but not at 3's for me:ok[/quote'] Cheers for that Russ :ok

[Boycie]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Cheers for that Russ :ok

I agree with you Russ. If anyone thinks Ronnie should win in the end I'm quite sure it's better to follow him match after match. There are five matches and there is no chance that average odd will be under 1.30 and that is (almost) what you take with 3/1... imho :hope

[Boycie]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Too many wasted chances from Campbell (it seems from the livescore at least) and great comeback in the end from Joyce. But bad for Joyce is that he will play in first session tomorrow and question is how fresh and rested he will be mentally after this one. So far he qualify only once in his career for main draw at ranking tournaments and I think experience of Davis could be decisive factor in this one, even he didn't show something special in last matches.

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Right, the TV stage kicks-off tomorrow so time for a couple of outrights. 2pts - Mark Selby to win the 2010 UK Championship @ 12.5 with Betfair Selby started the season in blistering form in the PTCs and looked a cert for the Shanghai Masters until Ali Carter stopped him in his tracks in the semis. Since then, his form has dipped slightly but the longer format here suits him down to the ground. It's astonishing that a player of his class still has just the one ranking title to his name (the 2008 Welsh Open - the poor relation of the ranking titles as well) and that just has to change soon. He's used to going deep in major events now and seems to have the beating of most of his major rivals (Ronnie included), and he's at the stage where he needs to kick on and win a big one. Provided he sees off Walden in the 1st round he faces Maguire or Doherty in the 2nd and I can't see either of them getting the better of The Jester. John Higgins could await in the quarters but, despite his impressive return to the circuit, I wonder if Higgins has enough matchplay under his belt to see off a battler like Selby over 17 frames. All in all, that's not a bad route through to a potential semi-final and, at this price, I think Selby is value for the win. 2pts - Mark Williams to win the 2010 UK Championship @ 12.5 with Betfair Another player who started the season in fine form, Williams is the sort of character who will benefit from the all the extra tournaments around now. His game went stale a few seasons back and I think it was clear he'd lost interest in the sport, but last season showed that he's getting close to reproducing his very best snooker and he seems to have relished the PTCs, playing in all but the last 2 events (presumably so he can put in the practice hours for the big one :hope). I don't see anything for Williams to fear in his quarter of the draw with Ali Carter looking his likeliest contender for a semi-final place. After that, it could be a cracker with Robertson for a place in the final. All in all, 12.5 once again looks like a decent price.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships 2 outrights for me. 1pt ew M.Williams to win UK Championships 11/1 Stan James Mark Williams has been in decent enough form so far this season. He's won a PTC event and made the semi finals of the World Open where he looked a shoo in to make the final before a sturring Robertson comeback. He looked ok at times in the Premier League too. There isn't too many parts of this draw which has an easy feel about it but Williams quarter is one that does. Ali Carter needs to be shown respect but with a potential clash with his old mate Stephen Hendry maybe lieing in wait in the 2nd round I'm sure Williams will have worked hard coming into the event. He's won it twice so he knows what it's all about so I'll take Williams this week. 1pt M.Stevens to win 1st Quarter 16/1 Paddy Power Matthew Stevens is another who's gone fairly well this season. He's pushed himself up to officially number 16 in the rankings at present. That's no meant feat given the slump he's had with his game but like Williams he's coming through it. Stevens has been solid in the PTC's, qualifying for the finals and he made the quarter finals in Shanghai at the beginning of the season, only to lose to eventual champion Ali Carter in a deciding frame. His draw here could be a lot easier but even so I still think he's a big price. As a former winner he knows what this event entails. Ding's a tough 1st round draw but if he can get past that he has Mark Allen or Tom Ford which I think is winnable. Ronnie would like in wait for Stevens in the quarter final if both make it that far but even if he were to face Ronnie in the quarters I'd be happy to be facing him with a slip saying 16/1 in my hand. Stevens is a good player in the longer frame matches and at this price he might just be worthy of a punt here.

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships 3 for me on the opening day. 6pts J.Higgins (-2.5 frames) to beat S.Lee 3/4 Boylesports I'm really keen on Higgins' chances here. He's got the bit between his teeth with a point to prove after his enforced lay off. That lay off hasn't hampered his snooker though as he's reached a PTC final and won another PTC event in the short time he's been back. Stephen Lee is a frustrating character. He's got everything in place technically but between the ears something keeps letting him down. He's now at a stage in his game where he struggles to really compete with the upper echelons of the game. He's edging back to the top 16 but Higgins is another step up. I really believe we'll see Higgins go well this week and if he brings the form he's shown in the PTC's, and there's no reason he won't, then I think he'll win this quite comfortably. 9-6 or better does the job here and I'm happy to take the ultra consistent and tough Higgins to win by 3 frames or more. 4pts N.Robertson (-3.5 frames) to beat R.McLeod Evs Paddy Power Neil Robertson continues his purple patch of the last 12 months or so which has seen him move up to number one in the world and win the world title and the world open. He walked into Ronnie at his best in the Premier League last week but longer frane matches are fast becoming his territory. Rory McLeod is one of those players who plays well in the qualifiers in front of a man and his dog but when it comes to the TV he freezes. That's not good when you are about to face Robertson in this form. Robertson has played plenty of matches recently with the Premier League and he should come here with his cue arm suitably oiled. I think he'll win this 9-5 or better. 3pts S.Maguire vs K.Doherty - Over 14.5 frames 4/5 Blue Square I think we'll see a close match here. Ken Doherty has a 4-1 lead over Stephen Maguire and while I'm not sure if Ken's game is still at the level it once was, I think it's at a level where he'll be competitive. Rod Lawler pulled out all of Ken's competitive juices in the qualifiers which bodes well for him to keep this close. Stephen Maguire will be in a rare experience of being on one of the outside tables in this match and that too may make the match a bit closer. I think Maguire may well edge through in this match but I do think whichever way it ends that it'll be 9-6 or closer either way. Both are good, tough competitors which should means neither runs away with this so I'm happy to take over 14.5 frames here.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Update: Last bet before PL (Campbell) went down after looking nailed on to win, plenty of opportunities to lay off. That took me to +3.15pts with loads of bad luck to boot!! Since then, I've had 7 more bets (Kevshat can vouch for these) as follows: 2pts @ 6/4, Xiao Guodong to beat Judd Trump (4-4 in running) - Lost 2pts @ 11/8, Milkins to beat Stevens (4-4 in running) - Lost 2pts @ 7/4, Wattana to beat Gould (4-4 in running) - Lost 2pts @ 5/4, Wallace to beat Dunn - Won 2pts @ 2/1, McLeod to beat Wenbo - Won 2pts @ 11/10, White to beat Perry - Won 0.5pt treble on Wallace, McLeod & White - Won An awful 1st day but a brilliant 2nd day. Going into the final stages, I'm standing at +11.55pts.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships I'm struggling to find very much in the outright market so I'll stick with just one. S.Murphy to win UK Championships 1pt EW @ 11/1 Bet365 (1/2 odds 1-2) I fancy the 2008 winner to go deep into this one. For me, this bet is all about the draw and there was no way I was contemplating anyone in the top half with Selby, Ronnie and Higgins hidden in there. The bottom half looks easier. Smurf has been in decent nick, reaching the final of the Premier League in fine style, by taking 5 frames on the bounce against Marco Fu without him scoring a point. He then ran into an unstoppable Ronnie in the final so no shame in getting stuffed there. His draw sees him against Patrick Wallace first up, who played excellent in the qualifiers but will be no match for Shaun before another comfortable match up in Ryan Day or Mark King. No one else in the whole draw has such a easy run to the quarters, at least on paper anyway. Then it's possibly Robbo in the last 8, with Williams or Carter in the last 4. Robertson hasn't got a great record here so I'd take Shaun to win again, and I'd be happy to effectively be on him at 11/2 to beat his semi opponent. An intriguing and exciting tournament, I'll be cheering Murphy home.

[Spooner]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Yep same outright as you Russ. 2pts E-W S.Murphy to win UK Championships @ 11/1 Bet365 (2, 1/2) Very happy with the price on Murphy to win the UK Champs, he is in good form and showed that at the Premier League last weekend, ok he got stuffed by Ronnie in the final but no one can live with him when he plays like that. You can't take the price about O'Sullivan to win this tournament, if he does it will just be enjoyable to watch. Shaun's in the better half and should make the Quaters with ease, then it starts to get tricky but his playing well enough to go deep in this tournament and I think he could be UK Champ.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Onto the first day bets. D.Junhui (-2.5 frames) to beat M.Stevens 3pts @ 11/8 SportingBet I'm taking the holder here on the handicap at a price that seems a shade big. Ding was in super form last term taking the title, easily disposing of Dunn, Murphy & Maguire along the way, with closer victories against Carter & Higgins. Matthew Stevens is a decent player but not the force of old and was none too convincing in disposing of Rob Milkins in the final qualifying round. Ding has beat Matthew here before and clearly likes the venue. He's been in decent fettle the rare occasions he's played in the PTC events. Looking back at the UK scores last year, Stevens went 4-3 on Ronnie, before losing 6 on the bounce whilst Ding was 5-2 down against Mike Dunn before winning 7 on the trot. If Ding can get off to a decent early start, I expect him to kick on in the evening and record a comfortable opening round win of 9-6 or better. M.Allen vs T.Ford, over 1.5 century breaks 3pts @ 10/11 Paddy Power 2 players I like who both score heavily. This has to be season that the Irishman finally proves himself, as he has undoubted ability and he'll hope to start here. Tom Ford, meanwhile, is a future star, who qualified here with a 9-2 bashing of Gerard Greene. Ford has been in form on the PTC circuit and made the top 10. In terms of centuries, this should be an open game and we should get plenty of frames as I think it will be close. At last season's event, Allen lost out in round 1 to Stephen Lee on a decider but, amazingly, hit 4 tons along the way. A repeat of that and we'll be counting our money early doors, hopefully Tom can chip in too. M.Selby (-2.5 frames) to beat R.Walden 3pts @ 10/11 SportingBet As many will know, I'm a big fan of the Jester and not so of Walden. Selby has been in cracking form, finishing 2nd in the PTC money list with Ricky further down in the 20's. When Selby is on a roll, he can play some amazing stuff and he'll be keen to get off to a strong start in a half where Higgins and O'Sullivan await. I hope he'll take his PTC form forward to this and, if he does, he'll take this easily. Walden, meanwhile, has slowed down his progress and was a very lucky boy to make the final stages, struggling to overcome Liu Chuang 9-8 after being 7-4 down. That's hardly inspiring form so I'll take Mark at big odds, considering he's quite a bit shorter at other bookies. J.Higgins to beat S.Lee, first 6 frames 4pts @ 5/6 Paddy Power On similar lines to Kev here, I really think the Scot will come out firing and could be very difficult to stop. I've posted in the snooker threads before that Higgins is the fastest starter in the game and I very nearly took him in the first 4 frame market. However, this one gives us a little bit of breathing space and I'm taking him to be leading 4-2 or better after the first 6. Stephen Lee is a bit of a journeyman, capable of producing some good results but I'm uncertain over his ability to handle the pressure. In what will be a superb atmosphere, I think Higgins will really want to prove the doubters wrong whilst Lee could crack so a Higgins lead is the bet.

[sneej]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships M.Allen Vs T.Ford. - Allen total player centuries (0.5 centuries) OVER 5pts @ 1/2 Paddy Power Pretty much following on from Russ. I've seen Allen play many times and he is a big scorer and feel that the 1/2 on him to make a ton during the game is a steal. I like Russ's tip of over 1.5 combined although don't know enough about Tom to know whether he will comfortably be able to hit the big numbers and at the same time don't see much value in taking that punt if i'm relying on Mark to get two himself. Overall, should be some big numbers and this bet shouldn't be a problem.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

M.Allen Vs T.Ford. - Allen total player centuries (0.5 centuries) OVER 5pts @ 1/2 Paddy Power Pretty much following on from Russ. I've seen Allen play many times and he is a big scorer and feel that the 1/2 on him to make a ton during the game is a steal. I like Russ's tip of over 1.5 combined although don't know enough about Tom to know whether he will comfortably be able to hit the big numbers and at the same time don't see much value in taking that punt if i'm relying on Mark to get two himself. Overall, should be some big numbers and this bet shouldn't be a problem.

Good luck mate:ok Hope to see plenty more tips from you on here;)

[Pobby]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Has Jimmy hit form or is Hendry shot? The quotes on a Hendry win seem low to me.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Good call Sneej, that's the century bet up by frame 4. Just need one more now.

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Has Jimmy hit form or is Hendry shot? The quotes on a Hendry win seem low to me.

Jimmy was excellent in the qualifiers, beating Wicheard 9-1, Gunnell 9-4 and Joe Perry 9-6, including a 135 (I think). Was 7-2 up against Perry too, is in super nick. Hendry not breaking any records at present, has slipped a couple of places in the rankings to 13. I still make him fav but, without doubt, it's a no bet for me.

Good call Sneej' date=' that's the maximum bet up by frame 4. Just need one more now.[/quote'] ...and it's in. Back to back tons from Allen:ok

[western skies]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Good call Russ and sneej :clap

Has Jimmy hit form or is Hendry shot? The quotes on a Hendry win seem low to me.

I'd pretty much echo what Russ has said. Hendry has no real form whatsoever and is in danger of losing his top 16 place before the Crucible if he doesn't start putting some runs together. White has been playing very well in qualifying, but he does tend to suffer a bit in front of the cameras these days. I think it takes him such an effort to get there that he puts extra pressure on himself to perform and his form suffers as a result. All of which makes this match a no bet for me as well.

[sneej]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships nice one Russ :beerand thanks western Allen in fine form hitting the big numbers as usual - will look out for any more punts that catch my eye

[Boycie]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships What a day for opening.. "2010 Telford century fest" :drums For some reason I couldn't open PL in the morning again, shame cause I missed some great picks here again. :clap So far for me is more or less good. I backed Junhui, Robertson -3,5 and Higgins but unfortunately the last one was with highest stake. Junhui repeat performances from World open as he is fully concentrate, patient and clinical precise both with safety's and reds when he attack. For me he is on of favorites from shade even aggressive Allen could force him to show his very best. Robertson wasn't challenged at all but it seems that he is quite determined and stable and I am quite sure that he wont find some problems in next round against any of possible opponents. Same as Russ i expect Higgins to start strong but I didn't expect him to step on break so fast. In the end 4-4 doesn't look bad at all and I hope that he will be much more consistent tomorrow.

[sneej]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Right, going to get Sunday's selections up early: Just wanted to say congrats to all the winning picks today - have to admit i opposed your bet for Maguire v Doherty to be over 14.5 frames. Just though Maguire would be too strong for him and Doherty hasn't showed me much over recent times that he has the ability to put a decent stint in but nice winner nonetheless. For tomorrow: Carter V Joyce. Williams V Davis. 5pts Carter & Williams DOUBLE @ 31/20 Skybet Seems pretty straight forward. Out of all of the matches tomorrow these are my two most confident picks and should have too much for their opponents. Both Carter and Williams regularly run deep in ranking events and feel they will be hugely disappointed if they don't get their tickets to the 2nd round. Hendry V White. 3pts Jimmy White +2.5 Frames H'Cap @ 8/11 BlueSquare As mentioned above by some of you, Jimmy is in the form of his life in the run up to this tournament whereas Hendry is the complete opposite. Feel Jimmy will make a great game of this and have to admit i am tempted to take him outright but thought better to play safe on the h'cap - can afford him to lose 9-7 worse case scenario. Day V King. 3pts Over 14.5 frames @ 4/6 Stan James Think this is a real tight match up. Both seem to have frequent ups and downs in form but i feel both will fancy their chances and see it as an excellent opportunity to advance to the next round. Can see this being a real hard fought battle getting down to the nitty gritty and just can't see either player winning 9-5 or better. Also kind of fancy taking over 14.5 frames in the Fu v Hawkins match and maybe Trump to edge Cope perhaps but need to look at these in more detail - will post up tomorrow if i end up taking them. Best of luck - let the fortune continue :hope

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships

Carter V Joyce. Williams V Davis. 5pts Carter & Williams DOUBLE @ 31/20 Skybet

Hi mate, I'd check this. A 1/6 shot alongside a 1/3 shot isn't 31/20 (or 6/4). More like 8/15.:ok

[sneej]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Yea you're right matey...I'm used to decimals :)

[RussP]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships Firstly, I'lll post to say that in hindsight I shouldn't have posted up the 'update' from when PL was down. It's irrelevant, the bets are in the past, weren't posted up beforehand but the money's in the bank so that's all that matters. If I upset anyone by doing it, I'm sorry. Anyway, back to business and I'll keep separate P&L's for the qualifiers and the final stages. With bets posted on here, I finished +3.15pts for the qualifiers, not a bad return considering the final frame reversals I suffered. In today's openers for the tournament proper, I had 3 out of 4 winners with only Higgins letting us down after allowing a 2-0 lead to slip. Ding won comfortably, the Allen/Ford centuries was up inside 5 frames and Selby played some good stuff this evening after being held in the afternoon. This leaves us at +5.58pts after Day 1. Will sleep on my thoughts before posting up todays bets:ok

[kevshat]

Re: Snooker: UK Championships +1.4pts for me on settled bets so far but should be another 4pts at some stage tomorrow with Robertson so far clear. One early one for Sunday. 3pts B.Hawkins to beat M.Fu 5/4 Stan James These two could easily swap positions in the rankings before too long. Hawkins is chasing a place back in the top 16 and Marco Fu is beginning to start to cling on to his place. These two have met 6 times in the past and both have 3 wins each so it's not just the rankings that's close between these two. I like Hawkins here because he came through a tricky looking qualifying round against Fergal O'Brien who is always a tough nut to crack so to win that relatively comfortably is a good indication that he's playing well. Marco Fu's a decent player in the longer distance matches usually but aside from the Premier League, he hasn't done much in big tournaments for a while. Hawkins is a dangerous opponent and he's in good form this season so I'll take him here at odds against.