Bairn's Value Away Wins

[smw30]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Southend two up in 15 minutes :clap:clap

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Bairn - Just wondering how many historical games you look at. For instance if you're looking back at say 25 games just wondering if you could improve your return if you looked at only say 8/12 games. The reason for this if a team isn't winning but playing well over 25 games they may well be a bigger problem at the heart of their ability to win. Just wondering if you've given any thought to this. I'm always interested in trying to improve things even if returns are fantastic

I do go back quite a few games when calculating ratings, but these are weighted, so what happened in the more recent games has much more of an effect on ratings than what happened in games from several months ago. However, I do like your theory as to why this could improve things and think it is definitely worth looking into more. The processes for calculating ratings for every fixture from recent seasons do take a bit of time to put in place and to run, but I'll add this to the things I want to try out (on this systems and others). I might not get a chance to do this till the end of the season, but I'll post my findings here when I do.

[averick]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins If I'm not wrong, ROI for the month is over 100%!:clap

[Aidymac]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Astonishing ROI ... If this keeps up for another season, i would gladly give the man a payment for the system.. Keep up the good work :D

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
Tue 15th Dec	Cheltenham 0 - 2 Southend	3.5	+£25.00	+£207.70

Definitely on one of the best runs this system has ever experienced now! There is already enough in the bank to cover the worst losing run I came across in back-testing (13 matches).

[duka_al]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins You are David Copperfield....:clap

[Bagzi]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just noticed this thread, well done bairn1, keep up the good work. Exellent stuff! :clap

[winningbin]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn ! Have you ever seen lost 13-match string twice ? :) And did you calculate the ability for a lost 13-match string to appear ? I hope that the lost 13-match string just appear once we win around 10 matches, it would be profitable :D

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
Tue 15th Dec	Cheltenham 0 - 2 Southend	3.5	+£25.00	+£207.70

Definitely on one of the best runs this system has ever experienced now! There is already enough in the bank to cover the worst losing run I came across in back-testing (13 matches).

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Bairn ! Have you ever seen lost 13-match string twice ? :) And did you calculate the ability for a lost 13-match string to appear ? I hope that the lost 13-match string just appear once we win around 10 matches, it would be profitable :D

In the data I looked at (from 2007/08 onwards), the 13 match losing streak only occurred once. There were a few other losing streaks of 10+ matches, and a fair few losing months (so I guess I picked a good time to start documenting it on here!), but long term, the system has always shown a good profit, and betting to it in each of the last three seasons would've given you a healthy profit at the end of each season. Looks like there will be a few picks for the weekend - I'll post these later.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Fri 17th Dec | Brighton v Notts County | £10 at 5 (Coral or ToteSport) Sat 18th Dec | Bath City v Southport | £10 at 4.33 (Victor Chandler) Sat 18th Dec | La Coruna v Sporting Gijon | £10 at 4 (BetFred, Victor Chandler or Coral) Mon 20th Dec | Manchester City v Everton | £10 at 5.5 (SkyBet, BetFred or Victor Chandler)

[winningbin]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Bath City

-

Southport

Postponed ! :spank

Fri 17th Dec | Brighton v Notts County | £10 at 5 (Coral or ToteSport) Sat 18th Dec | Bath City v Southport | £10 at 4.33 (Victor Chandler) Sat 18th Dec | La Coruna v Sporting Gijon | £10 at 4 (BetFred, Victor Chandler or Coral) Mon 20th Dec | Manchester City v Everton | £10 at 5.5 (SkyBet, BetFred or Victor Chandler)

[hernancrespo]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Notts County postponed, frozen pitch.

[sodabrab]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn - Fair play to you on the system proving excellent. Just from looking at historic results do you only back away teams that match criteria which are above a certain price or do you consider all that match system regardless of price. For instance looks like cut off of cica 3.5 or am I reading something that's not true

[relf]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Wow, Everton won! :clap:clap

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Bairn - Fair play to you on the system proving excellent. Just from looking at historic results do you only back away teams that match criteria which are above a certain price or do you consider all that match system regardless of price. For instance looks like cut off of cica 3.5 or am I reading something that's not true

There is a lot of criteria that has to be met for the system, and I think one of these is the odds. I can't remember the exact cut-off point, but I think it's lower than 3.5 - it's just that most fixtures that match all of the other criteria tend to be at higher odds anyway.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Looking at the up and coming fixtures in the French league tomorrow night and the English leagues on boxing day, and unfortunately nothing fits in with the system. However, it does mean we can end December and 2010 on a high note. Though not quite sure how Everton managed it... corners = 0 v 11, shots = 4 v 25!

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
Sat 18th Dec	La Coruna 1 - 1 Sporting Gijon	4	-£10.00	+£197.70
Mon 20th Dec	Manchester City 1 - 2 Everton	5.5	+£45.00	+£242.70

[sodabrab]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Cheers Bairn - fair play and rest up during the christmas

[smw30]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins This gonna carry on into the new year? Let's hope so :ok

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

This gonna carry on into the new year? Let's hope so :ok

Had a bit of a break over the festive period, but will be back v soon with any selections that meet the criteria.

[smw30]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Look forward to it fella :clap Spurs tonight look like a good away bet to me. Not great value mind.

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Two picks for the weekend... 08/01/2011 | Tranmere v Walsall | Away Win | 3.7 (Bet365) 09/01/2011 | Santander v Sp Gijon | Away Win | 4.36 (Pinnacle)

[Eliaz Ace]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Excellent system! You ripping the bookies atm lets hope this continues! Any chance you can PM the formulas? Cheers mate:cheers

[a1ehouse]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins I'll be stepping on the bandwagon this weekend :hope Good picks so far bairn :ok

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Possibly a bit unlucky as both picks were on top in terms of shots on target, shots off target and corners, but two losing bets nonetheless...

Date	Match	Odds	P/L	P/L Cum
08/01/2011	Tranmere 3 - 3 Walsall	3.7	-10	+£232.70
09/01/2011	Santander 1 - 1 Sp Gijon	4.36	-10	+£222.70

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Excellent system! You ripping the bookies atm lets hope this continues! Any chance you can PM the formulas? Cheers mate:cheers

I'm not quite sure how to send you a PM, but if you let me know I'll do this.

[Grex]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

I'm not quite sure how to send you a PM' date=' but if you let me know I'll do this.[/quote'] I don't think you can send/receive PMs until you have 50 posts or more.... you are on 41 posts, Eliaz is on 11 posts, so the only way you can communicate is for one of you to make your email address public..... which you may not be happy with.

[sodabrab]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Bairn - Just a quick point,I've been doing some analysis on your system. Not too sure if you've looked at this but corners appear to be a much more important factor for some leagues e.g. league 1 and 2 in the UK and other factors are much more important for other leagues e.g. shots on target championship. Not too sure if you've noticed this with your analysis to date. But I suggest you could up your long term return if you were to look into some of your parameters in a little more detail.... not that you need to really but I'm always looking for the extra edge with systems. Interested in your thoughts

[winningbin]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

I'm not quite sure how to send you a PM' date=' but if you let me know I'll do this.[/quote'] me too, is there any chance to share your fomula details ? My email: somethingcrazy [at] hushmail.com :) to spammers out there: My email is just for contact with Bairn :) and then I will not use it anymore, so no need to send spams :dude

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins

Bairn - Just a quick point,I've been doing some analysis on your system. Not too sure if you've looked at this but corners appear to be a much more important factor for some leagues e.g. league 1 and 2 in the UK and other factors are much more important for other leagues e.g. shots on target championship. Not too sure if you've noticed this with your analysis to date. But I suggest you could up your long term return if you were to look into some of your parameters in a little more detail.... not that you need to really but I'm always looking for the extra edge with systems. Interested in your thoughts

Thanks for this - sounds v good. I hadn't really thought about it at all, but it does make sense to adjust the way ratings are calculated for different leagues. I've already got plenty of ideas lined up to try (on this and other systems), but I think I'll have to put these aside till the end of the season and hopefully have more profitable systems in place for next year!

[bairn1]

Re: Bairn's Value Away Wins Just one pick for the weekend... 15/01/2011 | Chesterfield v Stevenage | Away Win | 4.07 (Pinnacle) The system could possibly be improved to either take into account cup matches, or (as an easier option) ignore fixtures directly after cup matches. I'll add this this to the list of things I want to look at, but in the meantime, here's hoping that Stevenage's good result they were due wasn't just in their cup win on Sunday!