UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

[Jase82]

	Wednesday 20 October 2010	Home	Draw	Away	BPP
	FC Barcelona v FC København (19:45 BST)	1.16	7	15	106.67 %
	FC Schalke 04 v Hapoel Tel Aviv (19:45 BST)	1.4	4.41	10	104.10 %
	FC Twente v Werder Bremen (19:45 BST)	2.5	3.5	3	101.90 %
	Internazionale v Tottenham Hotspur (19:45 BST)	1.66	3.75	5	106.67 %
	Manchester United v Bursaspor Kulübü (19:45 BST)	1.16	7	15	106.67 %
	Olympique Lyonnais v Benfica (19:45 BST)	2.02	3.6	4	102.28 %
	Panathinaikos v Rubin Kazan (19:45 BST)	2.4	3.5	2.92	104.37 %
	Rangers v Valencia (19:45 BST)	2.91	3.26	2.4	106.71 %

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Rangers - Valencia An early one for me because I expect price on Valencia to drop. The main reason being the fact that "The Scottish champions have failed to win any of their last five home encounters with Spanish opposition since a 1-0 UEFA Cup first round defeat of CA Osasuna in September 1985. Their overall record against Liga sides at Ibrox is W3 D3 L4." (info from uefa.com) Rangers are doing well in their league, but in my opinion Valencia is much better than most teams in SPL. Valencia @ 2.20 Ladbrokes

[Lennox]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October One very early one for me too. Inter Milan v Tottenham - Inter -1AH @ 2.280 with Pinnacle (8/10) I spotted this line a couple of weeks ago at 2.30 and with the price starting to fall just slightly, I've decided to get involved. This is my biggest bet of the season by far and in my opinion the odds on Inter simply to win at 1.70 are very generous. At Champions League level, there's no comparison between Inter and Spurs, particularly at the San Siro. No-one here needs me to talk them through the Inter line-up. It's packed with quality and determination and there's a real tactical intelligence throughout the squad. Having dropped points at FC Twente in their opening game, Inter will be looking to get their second consecutive home win, and one which would leave them with little to do to secure their place in the last 16. Rafael Benitez is a genius at this level and will relish taking on old "get-it-wide-and-in-the mixer 'Arry" on the Champions League stage. I can't imagine they have much in common when it comes to football philosophy. Spurs have achieved some impressive results in the last 15 months, but I can see them struggling here. Their only player of genuine CL class, Rafael Van der Vaart, misses this one through suspension, and they've looked shaky at the back, especially down the flanks. I've been weighing this up a lot and really cannot see any other outcome than an Inter win. I'm prepared to play the -1AH line with high confidence I'll at least see my stake returned. Mustafa - I'm still weighing up the Valencia -0.25 line. Living in Scotland, I see Rangers most weeks, and on Wednesday they'll look to park the bus in front of their goal and not give anything away. It's worked for them twice this season in the Champions League, but they'd have to ride their luck a lot to pull it off again. I think Valencia will win and will probably take the line.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October I think that Bursaspor can produce a sensation here. Man. United are very poor at the moment and @ 1.16 it is a joke. Their price was the same against West Brom. and they failed to win. Bursaspor is much better than West Brom. and the only reason they are priced so high is because of their name. The same thing happened last season when Rubin played Barcelona. Even though Bursaspor lost their opening home game to Valencia 0-4, I think they are strong and well organised team. Last year Turkish team ended United's 23 game unbeaten run at Old Trafford. For Bursaspor it is the last chance after losing firts two games. Conclusion: With odds @ 1.16 and considering Man. United current form I see there is a value in backing Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 (various) or Bursaspor @ 15.00-18.00 (various)

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

One very early one for me too. Inter Milan v Tottenham - Inter -1AH @ 2.280 with Pinnacle (8/10) I spotted this line a couple of weeks ago at 2.30 and with the price starting to fall just slightly, I've decided to get involved. This is my biggest bet of the season by far and in my opinion the odds on Inter simply to win at 1.70 are very generous. At Champions League level, there's no comparison between Inter and Spurs, particularly at the San Siro. No-one here needs me to talk them through the Inter line-up. It's packed with quality and determination and there's a real tactical intelligence throughout the squad. Having dropped points at FC Twente in their opening game, Inter will be looking to get their second consecutive home win, and one which would leave them with little to do to secure their place in the last 16. Rafael Benitez is a genius at this level and will relish taking on old "get-it-wide-and-in-the mixer 'Arry" on the Champions League stage. I can't imagine they have much in common when it comes to football philosophy. Spurs have achieved some impressive results in the last 15 months, but I can see them struggling here. Their only player of genuine CL class, Rafael Van der Vaart, misses this one through suspension, and they've looked shaky at the back, especially down the flanks. I've been weighing this up a lot and really cannot see any other outcome than an Inter win. I'm prepared to play the -1AH line with high confidence I'll at least see my stake returned. Mustafa - I'm still weighing up the Valencia -0.25 line. Living in Scotland, I see Rangers most weeks, and on Wednesday they'll look to park the bus in front of their goal and not give anything away. It's worked for them twice this season in the Champions League, but they'd have to ride their luck a lot to pull it off again. I think Valencia will win and will probably take the line.

Agree with this one mate, been thinking about this game since the FC Twente game when I won a few quid on Spurs but really saw in that game that Spurs, imo, do not have what I would call a Champions League mentaliity, by this I mean that they do not have the tactical experience to go very far in this comp..in short they are just too weak at the back, the situation with King is v.concerning with Spurs and after Harry's comments this morning I think he realises this is the beginning of the end for him, he or Spurs cannot continue with the present situation and both recognise this, its significant because this means they will line up with Gallas and prob Bassong at the back which is an untried partnership and further Harry has also expressed some concern about Gallas playing 3 games a week, his comments all have the sound of a manager trying to get some funds out of the board. Benitez has also come out and said he needs more players in Jan as they are overly reliant on Eto currently who scored again at the weekend, they are doing alright in the league dropping points against Juve at home and losing to Roma away which is no great disaster, beat a pretty weak Bremen 4-0 last time out and it is logical for them to try and win the home games to secure qualification as quickly as poss..they have a very strong base that has continued from last season, as Mourinho does at all clubs who employ him. I am somewhat hesitant because of the image of unreliability that I have of Inter, the match at home to Dynamo Kiev last season is still fresh in my mind, I have them as def favourites for this one though. The injury problems are certainly a concern with Milito, Cambiasso, Goran Pandez, David Suazo and McDonald Maringa on the sideline, but they should have enough strength in depth to beat Spurs at home. The straight price of 1.7 at various bookies appeals as does the -1AH price of 2.33 on betchronicle.

[Jr23]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October You guys are way over- and underrating Inter and Tottenham here..Inter got a win thanks to Samuel Etoo wonder goal, they did controlled the game vs Cagliari, but had only few more good chances , but that was about it, overall it was not a good performance at all..Inter are short of strong midfielders such as Cambiasso(Motta can be used a substitute now, but is still not ready, probably Stankovic and Zanetti takes over the midfield positions)...and attacking midfielders, Biabany and Coutinho are doing their thing, but they are very inexperienced and not Tevez-like-build animals, against strong, physical side such as Tottenham they will struggle even more..and they will probably play again, because Pandev is coming from an injury and Milito will watch it on TV. Tottenham might be without Rafael VDV, but they can use Kranjcar for example, he was MOM in his latest Euro2012 match against Israel and theres still lots of quality in this squad..I mean wins 4-1 vs Twente, 2-1 vs Aston Villa and latest away win 2-1 vs Fulham away(their first this season in EPL) shows they are no pushovers..especially against weakened Inter side..So I would think twice before I choose Inter -1AH for example..:hope to you anyway If you decide to go for it.

[IAmGooner]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Agreed on Inter. Not convinced at all and couldnt consider a handicap bet, maybe an outright win but I think I'll stay clear of this one. Not the same side as they were under Mourinho but saying that the defence is still highly experienced and powerful, so i dont see Spurs getting too much joy in attack with crouch likely on his own. Van Der Vaart is a big loss too, alot of Spurs players are rookies at this level, he would have helped I think. All in all, no bet on that one. Should be interesting to watch though.

[Lennox]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Interesting to read arguments on both sides of the coin, guys. I agree to an extent that the -1AH line does seem a little hopeful or over-confident. But I think Inter will win, and with a guaranteed stake return for just that, the price is just too opportunist for me to ignore. The Benitez factor can't be underestimated for me. He left English football under something of a cloud and with a slightly dented reputation, and for those reasons I reckon he'll have his players right up for this one. Spurs can be very good at times, they were swashbuckling against Twente at home, but this is a whole new level for most of their players and manager. HastGill1 made some excellent points about their defence. I also think Inter will get a lot of joy out of full-backs Alan Hutton and Benoit Assou-Ekotto. We'll see what happens, though. Good luck to all who have a play!

[El Ninyo]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

I think that Bursaspor can produce a sensation here. Man. United are very poor at the moment and @ 1.16 it is a joke. Their price was the same against West Brom. and they failed to win. Bursaspor is much better than West Brom. and the only reason they are priced so high is because of their name. The same thing happened last season when Rubin played Barcelona. Even though Bursaspor lost their opening home game to Valencia 0-4, I think they are strong and well organised team. Last year Turkish team ended United's 23 game unbeaten run at Old Trafford. For Bursaspor it is the last chance after losing firts two games. Conclusion: With odds @ 1.16 and considering Man. United current form I see there is a value in backing Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 (various) or Bursaspor @ 15.00-18.00 (various)

I think completely the opposite and I would say that Manu -1 would be more likely.

[Kosher Readies]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

I think that Bursaspor can produce a sensation here. Man. United are very poor at the moment and @ 1.16 it is a joke. Their price was the same against West Brom. and they failed to win. Bursaspor is much better than West Brom. and the only reason they are priced so high is because of their name. The same thing happened last season when Rubin played Barcelona. Even though Bursaspor lost their opening home game to Valencia 0-4, I think they are strong and well organised team. Last year Turkish team ended United's 23 game unbeaten run at Old Trafford. For Bursaspor it is the last chance after losing firts two games. Conclusion: With odds @ 1.16 and considering Man. United current form I see there is a value in backing Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 (various) or Bursaspor @ 15.00-18.00 (various)

United are too short I would agree with that although I watched Bursaspor against Rangers and they were awful, absolutely no urgency. Bursaspor +1.5 is evens at Betfair so I might consider that as I expect United to struggle but just about see it through. One bet that did catch my eye is Both teams to score at 2.12 with Betfair, Uniteds defence have been very sloppy recently and have conceded a lot of goals so I might go with that.

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

I think completely the opposite and I would say that Manu -1 would be more likely.

Man. United were leading 2-0 against West Brom. at half time and drew. i personally do not see them putting many goals against Turkish champions. But that's my opinion. I do not see Bursaspor losing against this Man. United side, which did not show a good performance recently, and they should not be priced @ 1.22. Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 Ladbrokes

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Inter are pure garbage. Give your money to charity rather than consider backing them on any kind of handicap. Inter's performances in Serie A are no better than what Liverpool have been doing in the EPL. They have just been extremely lucky to steal a few results. All their most important players are injured, and the team lacks any kind of spirit or balance. They look disjointed and unhappy under the guidance of the Spanish waiter. Spurs will come away with something here I am convinced. Inter are a vile price, the manager is not liked, and they don't have the stomach for the fight against an English club for sure. 1.7 on Inter winning outright is a disgusting price, 2.3 on the handicap plainly absurd. 0-0 for me is the bet at 12/1 with William Hill.

You are forgetting Benitez. He usually does much better in Champions League than in domestic one. 1 Champions League title with Liverpool and 1 final in 3 years. Not many teams have the same result in recent years. The only ones that come to mind are Man. United, Barcelona and Milan.

[John Anthony]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Rangers - Valencia An early one for me because I expect price on Valencia to drop. The main reason being the fact that "The Scottish champions have failed to win any of their last five home encounters with Spanish opposition since a 1-0 UEFA Cup first round defeat of CA Osasuna in September 1985. Their overall record against Liga sides at Ibrox is W3 D3 L4." (info from uefa.com) Rangers are doing well in their league, but in my opinion Valencia is much better than most teams in SPL. Valencia @ 2.20 Ladbrokes

Agree totally with this one so much so that I am taking Valencia -2 hc available at 9/1 with WillHill Watched Valencia against Barca lost 2-1 but played superbly well and could consider themselves a lil unfortunate not to come away from the Nou Camp with something against a full strength Barca. I think we may well see something similar to what Sevilla acheived at Ibrox last season. This is a game that is important to both sides and Rangers need three points here if they are seriously looking to progress through the group. Valencia are a team that can hurt Rangers here. They play 4-5-1 system without the ball as soon as they are in possession they change to 4-3-3 in an instant with Mata and Pablo Hernandez joining up with the front man from out wide. Mata and Hernandez are classy players both in the Spanish National set up they ooz speed, directness and precision passing and thrive in these sorts of games where they are given freedom to express themselves when in possession breaking forward. I think they will prove to be a real handful for Rangers in this game, being too clever, quick and sharp for Rangers rear guard. I think this one will end up being a widely open game and if Valencia score first as Rangers push for a goal themselves can see them being caught out time and again. Sevilla benefited last season to this effect and imo this Valencia team is a better counter attacking team again to Sevilla last season. They already trashed Bursaspor 0-4 on the road can see similar scoreline occuring of 0-3 or 0-4. Can not see past 3 points for Valencia and going to play this game as follows: Valencia -2 9/1 willhill 1/10 stakes Valencia -1 16/5 willhill 3/10 stakes Valencia 6/5 willhill 5/10 stakes :hope

[Lennox]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Inter are pure garbage. Give your money to charity rather than consider backing them on any kind of handicap. Inter's performances in Serie A are no better than what Liverpool have been doing in the EPL. They have just been extremely lucky to steal a few results. All their most important players are injured, and the team lacks any kind of spirit or balance. They look disjointed and unhappy under the guidance of the Spanish waiter. Spurs will come away with something here I am convinced. Inter are a vile price, the manager is not liked, and they don't have the stomach for the fight against an English club for sure. 1.7 on Inter winning outright is a disgusting price, 2.3 on the handicap plainly absurd. 0-0 for me is the bet at 12/1 with William Hill.

Not sure I'd describe the current European champions and a team two points off the pace in Serie A having conceded just 3 goals as "pure garbage", but this is a forum for opinions and we're all entitled to one. I don't think Spurs are good enough at the back to keep out Eto'o, Sniejder and co on their own patch for 90 mins, so I'd be interested to hear more of your reasoning for a 0-0 draw. Good luck with it, though.

[El Ninyo]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Man. United were leading 2-0 against West Brom. at half time and drew. i personally do not see them putting many goals against Turkish champions. But that's my opinion. I do not see Bursaspor losing against this Man. United side, which did not show a good performance recently, and they should not be priced @ 1.22. Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 Ladbrokes

Bursaspor were playing really good last year. But still if one of the big teams like Galatasaray, Fenerbahçe and Beşiktaş had been good too, then Bursa could not be the champions. Those three teams were awful the last year. This continue the same this year too. Galatasaray and Fenerbahçe were eliminated from the European Cups. Only Beşiktaş seems to play good but still they are at 13 points after 8 games. And by the way also most probably our manager will be sacked this week. So in this chaos Bursaspor seems good as looking to the league table. But they are very weakend than the last year. They are very very inexperienced at European Cups and they seem like little children shaking because of excitement while playing Champions League games. That West Brom you mention had beaten Arsenal at Emirates. I watched that game live and I can say that they are a good solid team. If Bursaspor to beat Man Utd that means they should play the best football of the club history. I can not see that. You said a "Turkish Team" had beaten Man Utd the last year. That is Beşiktaş with 13 league titles, 7 cup titles, 11 super cup titles and with hundreds of games played at European Cups. I would not even compare them with Bursaspor who played only four games at Europe at 1974 and 1986 before this year. And also need to mention that Bursaspor does not have a deep squad to play both at Europe and Turkey. So for me, the only way Bursaspor can win this game is if Man Utd play really really bad and Bursaspor play %100. Otherwise it will be Manu -1 or -2. Bursaspor will try to defend and get a draw but if they concede a goal that will continue. Anyways, good luck with your bet :ok

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

You guys are way over- and underrating Inter and Tottenham here..Inter got a win thanks to Samuel Etoo wonder goal' date=' they did controlled the game vs Cagliari, but had only few more good chances , but that was about it, overall it was not a good performance at all..Inter are short of strong midfielders such as Cambiasso(Motta can be used a substitute now, but is still not ready, probably Stankovic and Zanetti takes over the midfield positions)...and attacking midfielders, Biabany and Coutinho are doing their thing, but they are very inexperienced and not Tevez-like-build animals, against strong, physical side such as Tottenham they will struggle even more..and they will probably play again, because Pandev is coming from an injury and Milito will watch it on TV. Tottenham might be without Rafael VDV, but they can use Kranjcar for example, he was MOM in his latest Euro2012 match against Israel and theres still lots of quality in this squad..I mean wins 4-1 vs Twente, 2-1 vs Aston Villa and latest away win 2-1 vs Fulham away([b']their first this season in EPL) shows they are no pushovers..especially against weakened Inter side..So I would think twice before I choose Inter -1AH for example..:hope to you anyway If you decide to go for it.

You just cancelled a good win away to Stoke?

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Man. United were leading 2-0 against West Brom. at half time and drew. i personally do not see them putting many goals against Turkish champions. But that's my opinion. I do not see Bursaspor losing against this Man. United side, which did not show a good performance recently, and they should not be priced @ 1.22. Bursaspor DNB @ 10.00 Ladbrokes

I find it difficult with your logic. In one pick you reckon Chelsea would like to secure top spot in the Group early so that they can concentrate on the League till February. In Manchester you are expecting a shocker based on the WBA game and a Besiktas previous win... Don't you think SAF would also love to secure the top spot early and concentrate on EPL, where United find it hard at the moment? Bursa also dropped points recently, and from what I have seen from highlights played as juniors vs Valencia, and could not convert good opportunities away to Rangers in a 50/50 match... There is only one thing that makes Bursa dangerous - what can they possibly lose with no point so far, at Old Trafford!? But then again, how many teams went there with the same attitude??!! If your pick wins, that will make you a prophet here for a while, yet with that reasoning of yours, well....What I know is odds don't often lie, they are what they are for a reason.

[Brettfair]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Yiddo just ruined our chances :(

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

I find it difficult with your logic. In one pick you reckon Chelsea would like to secure top spot in the Group early so that they can concentrate on the League till February. In Manchester you are expecting a shocker based on the WBA game and a Besiktas previous win... Don't you think SAF would also love to secure the top spot early and concentrate on EPL, where United find it hard at the moment? Bursa also dropped points recently, and from what I have seen from highlights played as juniors vs Valencia, and could not convert good opportunities away to Rangers in a 50/50 match... There is only one thing that makes Bursa dangerous - what can they possibly lose with no point so far, at Old Trafford!? But then again, how many teams went there with the same attitude??!! If your pick wins, that will make you a prophet here for a while, yet with that reasoning of yours, well....What I know is odds don't often lie, they are what they are for a reason.

Well in the past two weeks or so Blackpool @ 11.00 or something beat Liverpool away, Azerbaijan @ 10.00 beat Turkey at home, so anything can happen, and Man. United @ 1.22 with inconsistent performance, Rooney unsettled. Anyway, I gave my view on this game and might be wrong and Bursaspor will get trashed by United 3-0 or 4-0, but there are no week teams in Champions League. I might be calculating it wrong, so please correct me Man. United @ 1.22 - 100/1.22 = 82% Draw @ 6.00 - 100/6.00 = 16.66% Bursaspor @ 15.00 100/15 = 6.66% So, I do not think that Man. United have 82% chance of winning this one, and Bursaspor has closer to 10% chance of winning here in my opinion.

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Well in the past two weeks or so Blackpool @ 11.00 or something beat Liverpool away' date=' Azerbaijan @ 10.00 beat Turkey at home, so [b']anything can happen, and Man. United @ 1.22 with inconsistent performance...

You are right about one thing - anything can happen. Does that mean your next pick is Spurs to thrash Inter 3-0 away and FC Copenhagen to beat Barca? At the start of my post I wrote that I struggle with your logic in view of your Chelsea pick. And now the things are getting worse as your examples are not based on CL games and the actual play of each team in THAT competition - your pick is based on a draw which took place in EPL with WBA. To follow such pick means that Shakthar will beat Arsenal by at least 2 goals - certainly you do not rule this out either??? After all WBA beat the Gunners a week before they drew at Old Trafford. I do not mind your choice as it is your money. I certainly mind your reasoning, it won't mislead many, but it makes no sense. This game is of no interest to me before I see who plays for Man Utd - a line-up similar to the one against Rangers could mean one thing - dull play until SAF makes changes in second half.

[ultravires]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October A lot of interest in the Inter - Spurs game. I agree with some of what a lot of people have said. Inter have not been playing well so far this season, but this is certainly accentuated by how well they played last season. The whole team played well and I think a few players gave their best seasons we will ever see them play. Benitez hasn't so far been able to do the same with these players. He has shown smart judgement by putting Eto'o through the middle. To suggest he is unpopular at the moment can't be true - he is the only player winning matches. They have been a little lucky at times (like this weekend just gone) but they are a great group of players still. I haven't watched much of tottenham this season so am wary of judging too strongly. They will obviously come to defend and counter-attack. I therefore presume it will be a 4-5-1 with Crouch alone up front. Inter have the definite advantage in the key areas. Lucio and Samuel will eat Crouch alive IMO. He is tall sure, but I'd be very surprised if these two can't handle him comfortably. Lennon may cause a few issues but is far too inconsistent to be relied on. Maicon vs Bale will be interesting and a pretty even contest I imagine. Importantly, Eto'o who is on fire, will be playing against Kaboul and Gallas? That is a promising match-up for him and I'd say that will probably be the deciding battle. I'd guess Inter will see a lot of the ball and face counter-attacks from time-to-time. Inter, as we know, have a great D game and I'm confident of them handling everything Spurs give them. Inter can afford to press with a high line due to Crouch's lack of pace so I think it really will be A trying to break down B. Inter themselves aren't shit hot up front recently so I don't expect them to be free-scoring at all. I'll hope for a rise in the Inter price, and I will need a slight rise to take them. Instead of that I really like the price on the unders. Under 2.5 - 11/10 - Bet365 - 4/10

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

You are right about one thing - anything can happen. Does that mean your next pick is Spurs to thrash Inter 3-0 away and FC Copenhagen to beat Barca? At the start of my post I wrote that I struggle with your logic in view of your Chelsea pick. And now the things are getting worse as your examples are not based on CL games and the actual play of each team in THAT competition - your pick is based on a draw which took place in EPL with WBA. To follow such pick means that Shakthar will beat Arsenal by at least 2 goals - certainly you do not rule this out either??? After all WBA beat the Gunners a week before they drew at Old Trafford. I do not mind your choice as it is your money. I certainly mind your reasoning, it won't mislead many, but it makes no sense. This game is of no interest to me before I see who plays for Man Utd - a line-up similar to the one against Rangers could mean one thing - dull play until SAF makes changes in second half.

My main reasoning here is based on the fact that Man. United has been inconsistent so far, and if Sir Alex decides to play unsettled Rooney Man. United will be playing 10 against 11. As for Barcelona - Copenhagen game I don't think it will be an easy one for Barcelona. Copenhagen won their first 2 games in the group and defeated Rubin, which Barcelona was not able to defeat in 3 games. Anyway, that's reasoning for another thread.

[nicko]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

I definitely think there are worse bets than opposing Manchester United at the odds on offer. There are very real signs the team is starting to age badly' date= manager included, and the younger players do not look capable of stepping up at the moment. Couple that with the terrible form of Wayne Rooney and you have a recipe for more disasters along the ways this season. The defense is a big concern they are shipping goals for fun on an almost weekly basis. Their confidence is shattered. On current form, I find it hard to believe there is any opposition Man Utd are 82% certain to beat in the Champions League. Punters will keep coming back for more though on the basis of their remarkable form through the 90s and 00s. Odds do not reflect the true chances of a team winning or losing. Almost always the big teams will be grossly under priced due to weight of money forcing the odds down. I have no doubt United's price is far too skinny given their current form and I would not touch it with anyone's money.

Now, I fully agree with this kind of reasoning - please see above ( worse bets ), and I tend to disagree with the second bit ( the defense ). Fact is we need to observe certain trends in each competition. I am not saying the form of Man Utd is EPL should be fully ignored, but the Champions League is a different stage, I can give you many examples. And IF the 0-0 vs an all-defending Rangers could be ignored, it is hard to ignore a clean sheet vs an attacking Valencia - correct me if I am wrong, but all Valencia had from the so called 100% chances was 1) a mistake from VDSaar and 2) a free header delivered to Soldado... IF we follow Mustafa's reasoning then United should thrash Bursa - United beat Valencia who previously beat Bursa, mind you not just beat them - gave them a lesson. OR we can go the other way ( again by Mustafa's logic ) - Man Utd had a 0-0 with Rangers, Bursa lost 1-0 to Rangers, so the game is defo Under 2 Goals. I only wish it was that easy. The reasons I started this were : -- Mustafa gives reasoning, which without being irrelevant, is far from adequate in a different competition. A Spurs team losing at home to Wigan gives Werder a great game away - how's that for a current form? How does it fit with that logic.... -- stats and records are only there to be broken. Like I said - if Mustafa's pick is right, then he is my new prophet here :ok

[HastGill1]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

It's well reported in Italy the players are unhappy with the coach. Eto'o is not popular with his teammates since Benitez has given him permission to stand around and wait for the ball while the rest of the team are expected to do all the chasing and tackling. Chivu has threatened to quit he's so unhappy with the Benitez regime. Everyone is playing for selfishly for themselves. Time and again chances to give a teammate and easy shot on goal are passed up as Inter players attempt shots from ridiculous angles and range. Once in awhile one of those shots hits the target, and even more infrequently they find the back of the net. Inter are lacking their steely midfielder Esteban Cambiasso and top finisher Diego Milito. I think you'll be surprised how comfortable Tottenham will be keeping a clean sheet on Wednesday night. All the ingredients are there for the bookies to enjoy another profitable night opposing a so-called European giant.

Your reasoning carries little logic and from your username I can guess you are hardly impartial! Milito has been poor this season before getting injured and although they are prob over reliant on Eto currently they are a strong home side who could easily take Spurs apart. Spurs, as I put in my previous post, are not a strong european side imo they are too poor defensively, massive injury problems at centre back and no settled defensive line-up. I would be personally staggered if they kept a clean sheet if they have conceded 2 against Bremen and 1 against Twente, both inferior sides to Inter. They do not yet have the tactical nous for games like this.

[Brettfair]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

A lot of interest in the Inter - Spurs game. I agree with some of what a lot of people have said. Inter have not been playing well so far this season, but this is certainly accentuated by how well they played last season. The whole team played well and I think a few players gave their best seasons we will ever see them play. Benitez hasn't so far been able to do the same with these players. He has shown smart judgement by putting Eto'o through the middle. To suggest he is unpopular at the moment can't be true - he is the only player winning matches. They have been a little lucky at times (like this weekend just gone) but they are a great group of players still. I haven't watched much of tottenham this season so am wary of judging too strongly. They will obviously come to defend and counter-attack. I therefore presume it will be a 4-5-1 with Crouch alone up front. Inter have the definite advantage in the key areas. Lucio and Samuel will eat Crouch alive IMO. He is tall sure, but I'd be very surprised if these two can't handle him comfortably. Lennon may cause a few issues but is far too inconsistent to be relied on. Maicon vs Bale will be interesting and a pretty even contest I imagine. Importantly, Eto'o who is on fire, will be playing against Kaboul and Gallas? That is a promising match-up for him and I'd say that will probably be the deciding battle. I'd guess Inter will see a lot of the ball and face counter-attacks from time-to-time. Inter, as we know, have a great D game and I'm confident of them handling everything Spurs give them. Inter can afford to press with a high line due to Crouch's lack of pace so I think it really will be A trying to break down B. Inter themselves aren't shit hot up front recently so I don't expect them to be free-scoring at all. I'll hope for a rise in the Inter price, and I will need a slight rise to take them. Instead of that I really like the price on the unders. Under 2.5 - 11/10 - Bet365 - 4/10

We're honestly not the kind of side that sits back trying to frustrate the opposition in the hope to nick a goal, we'll go to the San Siro to attack. Although we'll lineup in a 4-5-1 we don't really have any "out and out" defensive-minded midfielders - well we do, but Palacios won't play. Huddlestone and Modric like to get on the ball as much as possible, we'll get the ball out wide to Lennon and Bale at every opportunity and Jenas(it'll either be him or Kranjcar) will support Crouch as much as he can. We're not in a good state at the back, Corluka is out of form at the moment so Hutton will continue at right back, he attacks well (as Italy will know) but defensively I'm not convinced. Left back will be Ekotto, that's fine, but at CB we're missing King, Dawson, Kaboul and Woodgate(if I can count him) Gallas and Bassong are still solid players but an untried partnership so Eto'o could really run them ragged. I do find that we're quite underrated in that people write us off before we've even kicked a ball because we're not used to CL football but we don't have a great record away to the top sides in general(infact it's a shameful record which I don't feel the need to repeat ;)) This coupled with our defensive problems I'd be inclined to take Inter -1 AH as mentioned on the first page.

[John Anthony]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

We're honestly not the kind of side that sits back trying to frustrate the opposition in the hope to nick a goal, we'll go to the San Siro to attack. Although we'll lineup in a 4-5-1 we don't really have any "out and out" defensive-minded midfielders - well we do, but Palacios won't play. Huddlestone and Modric like to get on the ball as much as possible, we'll get the ball out wide to Lennon and Bale at every opportunity and Jenas(it'll either be him or Kranjcar) will support Crouch as much as he can. We're not in a good state at the back, Corluka is out of form at the moment so Hutton will continue at right back, he attacks well (as Italy will know) but defensively I'm not convinced. Left back will be Ekotto, that's fine, but at CB we're missing King, Dawson, Kaboul and Woodgate(if I can count him) Gallas and Bassong are still solid players but an untried partnership so Eto'o could really run them ragged. I do find that we're quite underrated in that people write us off before we've even kicked a ball because we're not used to CL football but we don't have a great record away to the top sides in general(infact it's a shameful record which I don't feel the need to repeat ;)) This coupled with our defensive problems I'd be inclined to take Inter -1 AH as mentioned on the first page.

Got to say I'm a massive spurs fan myself and not touching this game for obvious reasons. I agree with your thoughts and having watched inter with interest as late the one thing that is worrying is the form Eto is hitting at the moment. He is really looking like his old self now he has been pushed back into the central striking role and scored a beautiful goal on the weekend. But they played Cagliari and Cagliari had their fair share of chances and could have easily got something out of the game hitting the bar and Julia Cesar making a couple of good saves. I'm hoping Bassong being Eto's international buddy will know how to Eto works and mark him out the game - but hope means nothing in terms of confidence. Van der vaart absence is such a huge blow for us in this one he has been outstanding to say the least so far for spurs and was key in the Werder game before he went off. I think Harry Redknapp will tell the players this is a freebie for us this game no one expects us to get anything here so go out and play with freedom and express yourselves. Think we can definately expect to see goals in this one as in any spurs game of late. Hutton defensively at right back is a weakness there to be exploited but not sure if Inter have that someone on the left alot of their play tends to go either through the middle in Sneijer or on the right with Maicon. Maicon against Bale is going to be very interesting to watch and Bale has the opportunity to show that he is one of the best left sided players in the world at this moment in time. If Kranjaer does start he will be eager to prove his worth to Harry having such limited playing time since VDV arrived but if the International matches are anything to go by he certainly is not lacking in confidence or form. All in all looking forward to this game with great interest we can give Inter a good game imo any points in this one will be big bonus to us. Not sure on the result, but I wouldn't write us off at your peril we can deliver when needed 1-0 away win at Man City got us here in the first place and alot of people were writing us off in that game that was away. Beating Arsenal and Chelea both 2-1 at end of last season again against the odds. We have waited a long time for this tournament and hopefully the team will rise to the occasion :hope:hope:hope Spurs to win :loon

[Kozzin Benson]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

Agree totally with this one so much so that I am taking Valencia -2 hc available at 9/1 with WillHill Watched Valencia against Barca lost 2-1 but played superbly well and could consider themselves a lil unfortunate not to come away from the Nou Camp with something against a full strength Barca. I think we may well see something similar to what Sevilla acheived at Ibrox last season. This is a game that is important to both sides and Rangers need three points here if they are seriously looking to progress through the group. Valencia are a team that can hurt Rangers here. They play 4-5-1 system without the ball as soon as they are in possession they change to 4-3-3 in an instant with Mata and Pablo Hernandez joining up with the front man from out wide. Mata and Hernandez are classy players both in the Spanish National set up they ooz speed, directness and precision passing and thrive in these sorts of games where they are given freedom to express themselves when in possession breaking forward. I think they will prove to be a real handful for Rangers in this game, being too clever, quick and sharp for Rangers rear guard. I think this one will end up being a widely open game and if Valencia score first as Rangers push for a goal themselves can see them being caught out time and again. Sevilla benefited last season to this effect and imo this Valencia team is a better counter attacking team again to Sevilla last season. They already trashed Bursaspor 0-4 on the road can see similar scoreline occuring of 0-3 or 0-4. Can not see past 3 points for Valencia and going to play this game as follows: Valencia -2 9/1 willhill 1/10 stakes Valencia -1 16/5 willhill 3/10 stakes Valencia 6/5 willhill 5/10 stakes :hope

Couldnt agree more with the above post. Valencia are a quality team in a quality league who play against quality opposition most weeks. Rangers are in good form you cant argue with their recent results in the league. In my opinion though the scottish league is far below the spanish league in standard. Valencia will want to get 3 points after their late loss at home to man utd. They were unlucky to lose this match & had man utd chasing the ball for much of the game. Rangers will find it hard to keep up a high tempo for 90mins & with the home crowd willing them to close down the opposition at all times i think they will tire from having to chase the ball & the game. I dont expect valencia to win by 3 or 4 but i can see a valencia win & think that 2.2 on betfair is good value. Good luck all! :ok

[Psychic]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October Totally agree. Valencia should have too much for Rangers to deal with despite the home side's good start in the group. They are a quality side.

[stewstardust]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October FC Barcelona - FC København I might be considered an idiot, but i really feel that København has a chance of getting something at Camp Nou. København is really setting everything a light at the moment. They are crushing everything in the danish league and have had a fantastic start to the group stage. They just gave OB( second in the danish league last year and EL group participant this year) an abosolute thrashing this weekend. They won 5-0 and could easily have scored 3 or 4 more. Playing the finest football a danish club team have played since Brøndby 20 years ago. Futhermore they have only lost one game this season. Against Rosenborg away. That was over 2 months ago. They have a belief in themselves right now that is incredible. They have only conceded one goal in the last 7 games(including Rubin Kazan home and Pana away). Ironically against a low level team in the danish cup. Easy now, some might say :0) . Yeah, i know this game is at another level for København. But after having seen some of things that have been said by Barcelona management and players, I really think that Barcelona is underestimating København. And that would be a mistake against a team who is on a roll like København is. If Barcelona play at the level we all know they can, then København will lose. But if Barcelona drops slightly in their performance, København is good enough to take advantage atm. FC Barcelona - FC København (0-1) 2 @ 5.75 http://www.bwin.com

[Mustafa]

Re: UEFA Champions League > Wednesday 20th October

FC Barcelona - FC København I might be considered an idiot, but i really feel that København has a chance of getting something at Camp Nou. København is really setting everything a light at the moment. They are crushing everything in the danish league and have had a fantastic start to the group stage. They just gave OB( second in the danish league last year and EL group participant this year) an abosolute thrashing this weekend. They won 5-0 and could easily have scored 3 or 4 more. Playing the finest football a danish club team have played since Brøndby 20 years ago. Futhermore they have only lost one game this season. Against Rosenborg away. That was over 2 months ago. They have a belief in themselves right now that is incredible. They have only conceded one goal in the last 7 games(including Rubin Kazan home and Pana away). Ironically against a low level team in the danish cup. Easy now, some might say :0) . Yeah, i know this game is at another level for København. But after having seen some of things that have been said by Barcelona management and players, I really think that Barcelona is underestimating København. And that would be a mistake against a team who is on a roll like København is. If Barcelona play at the level we all know they can, then København will lose. But if Barcelona drops slightly in their performance, København is good enough to take advantage atm. FC Barcelona - FC København (0-1) 2 @ 5.75 http://www.bwin.com

Good reasoning and :welcome I was actually thinking the same about this one and might follow you on this one.