Robinnho

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)

Pegula loss caused me dearly on my accumulator with football and basketball bets! (Already won last night)

For me Dimitrov to win a set is highly probable and @2 is good value..... hope Djoko is not pretending to be "slightly" injured.

For me Dimitrov to win a set is highly probable and @2 is good value..... hope Djoko is not pretending to be "slightly" injured.

Murray vs Kokkinakis, they're still playing at nearly 4am in the morning Melbourne time!? (If I looked it up correctly) . That is bonkers lol.

Martina Trevisan to beat Anna Karolina Schmiedlova at 1.91 with William Hill
Schmiedlova did well to qualify here, but I think that she's the worse player of the two by a fair enough margin, so I wouldn't have Trevisan above 1.60 or so. Her 2023 record is not great, to be fair, but she's had to face much stronger opponents than Schmiedlova, and she even managed to beat Sakkari in the United Cup.
Richard Gasquet to beat Ugo Humbert at 1.80 with William Hill
The two met here last year, and Gasquet won in 4 sets as a huge underdog. He's the favourite this year, and rightfully so. Humbert has gone missing last year, and he hasn't started this year all that well, either, while Gasquet is having the time of his life, just free-rolling and beating much stronger players on paper. He'll certainly fancy his chances against his compatriot again.

Been following the qualifiers for the Australian Open and I noticed the young starlet that is Sara Bejlek made it through to the first round.
Anyone who remembers the US Open thread, will remember I went all in on Bejlek to win her quarter, the tournament and first round matchup. Unfortunately she then proceeded to lose said first round matchup lol.
Though, I am keeping the faith. She won all her qualifiers as the underdog in the betting and looking at the rankings of players she did beat she certainly excelled herself.
Now, more than likely she loses in the first round again, this time against fellow Czech countrywoman Krejcikova. But you never know in sport so with her progressive profile and admittedly my complete blind faith in the Bejlek I have backed her to win at 4.50 and also gone with her to win her quarter at 151.00
Also, after reading comments on here having slight doubts about Miss Swiatek, I have decided to oppose her and go with Miss Niemeier at odds of 8.00
All prices Bet365
Other than that, I will be following the excellent posters on here, so i wish you all good luck and here's to enjoying some top quality tennis action.

Having watched a significant amount of warm up matches, in both ATP and WTA I do like Pegula and Badosa to go very close to being Aussie open champs. Pegula is just rock solid.  Actually a very interesting article in the Guardian regarding her story.  https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2023/jan/13/jessica-pegula-mine-might-not-be-an-underdog-story-but-its-a-cool-story    Pegula's demolition of Swiatek  was a proper klaap, 2 and 2, bringing an emotional "snot en tranne"  (in Afrikaans means Snot, tears and Misery session. from Swiatek which was surprising for me.
OK, her dad is a billionaire, but this is someone who has gone through a lot in her journey to be #3 in the world.  I think Badosa has serious talent. Some of the ball striking versus Dart in the United cup was brilliant. Was a good match. Achilles is a vulnerability on the serve.
I have 4 underdogs that I like in the 1st round. At the odds around 10.5 - 13  to 10 I only need around a  46% strike rate to win.
Bouzkova to beat Andreescu   (1.02)
Lestienne to beat Monteiro     (0.98)
JeanJean to beat Podoroska   (0.80  JeanJean was dog earlier)
Mertens to beat Muguruza    (Evens)
I am using variable staking, but all of these 4 have the same stake. Let's call it 3.5 units. Will post my (underdog system) pics on the forum throughout the Aussie open and will keep a running tally.  In the warmups it went 39 bets, 112.2 units bet, returned a profit of 32.3 units for a 28.8% profit and a strike rate of 64% . My average odds where 1.03 or 10.3 to 10. If you divide 1 by 2.03 you get the implied probability. SO I need to beat a strike rate of 49% which I am doing easily.
We'll see what happens but I am confident.

Looking forward to the Aussie open tomorrow.
I do have some early round betting in the majors that people tend to disagree with. But my feeling is that in certain situations you must take the overwhelming odds on the overwhelming favorites, in small parlays for small medium stakes. The parlay below gives 12 to 10 which is fine for me. I really don't feel that there is much danger with these picks. Also, understand that over a best of 5 set match, the favorites percentage of winning increases by about 5%. It is just harder for a weaker player to maintain a winning standard for the 3 sets required for the win. So I prefer to make these types of parlay's in the ATP because of the 5 set matches.
Multibet (4) 2.20 2:0   1.26  Pegula, Jessica v Cristian, Jaqueline Adina  Correct Set Score  Aus Open Singles (W)   2023-01-16 02:00 Wawrinka, Stan1.21  Molcan, Alex v Wawrinka, Stan  Winner   Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-16 06:30 Evans, Daniel  1.11  Bagnis, Facundo v Evans, Daniel  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Rublev, Andrey  1.30 Rublev, Andrey v Thiem, Dominic  Winner Aus Open Singles (M)  2023-01-17 02:00 Parlay gives 16 to 10
 Multibet (6) 2.60 Tiafoe, Frances1.13 Altmaier, Daniel v Tiafoe, Frances  Winner  Aus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-16 03:15 Auger-Aliassime, Felix1.08  Pospisil, Vasek v Auger-Aliassime, Felix Winner Aus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 07:45 Tsitsipas, Stefanos1.16  Tsitsipas, Stefanos v Halys, QuentinWinnerAus Open Singles (M)2023-01-16 10:00 Berrettini, Matteo1.30 Berrettini, Matteo v Murray, AndyWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kokkinakis, Thanasi1.22 Kokkinakis, Thanasi v Fognini, FabioWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00 Kyrgios, Nick1.16 Kyrgios, Nick v Safiullin, RomanWinnerAus Open Singles (M) 2023-01-17 02:00    

Krejcikova is in better shape to face Kasatkina but she is scheduled to play a double before her single match.

Jiri Lehecka to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.67 with BetVictor
Really fancy Lehecka in this spot. Both have struggled slightly in recent matches, but Lehecka has been punching on the main level, while Monteiro had some issues even with a pretty unknown player. The Czech's ceiling, you have to feel, is much higher than Monteiro's, and he also beat the Brazilian quite handily when the two met last year.

Barbora Krejcikova to beat Darya Kasatkina at 1.70 with Unibet
Krejcikova looked more than decent to me against Riske, and I'm not quite sure how much to trust Kasatkina at present. With the situation around her and not-so-great form book, she really needs to get some easy wins against lesser or at least average opposition, but she's not getting any luck draw-wise in that regard.

Tsitsipas is the most overrated player. To lose from Ivashka is something not shocking. I mean i don't trust Tsitsipas any more against any player. And especially on grass, he looks weak player. Dozens would beat him on grass. Zero progress in the last three years on his game. Actually is moving backwards than forwards. And i hate his father. If he doesn't fire his idiot father for ever, don't expect anything from Tsitsipas. 
I am out of any betting involvement this week. 

For the ATP I think it is Tsitsipas who will like to take a rest and freshen up before the GS.  So Ivashka got a chance to beat him at a great value.

I presume Badosa and perhaps Sakkari too decided to give themselves a few days off before Wimbledon to rest up and recharge. Although that said, with Badosa you're never quite sure, as she has had some shocking losses at times this year for a player who's considered to be top 5 in the world. 

Despina Papamichail (+4.5) to beat Natalija Stevanovic at 1.83 with Pinnacle
I'm not quite sure why Papamichail isn't getting any credit for her big win over Lys, she's constantly underrated by the bookies, but she's had some decent results recently. Stevanovic had a good win in the first round, but +4.5 looks off to me.

2 picks for Wimbledon qualifying matches tomorrow:

KUBLER-4 GAMES HANDICAP OVER TIRANTE @ 1.75 pinnacle
Kubler has 33-10 record this year, and winning 14 out of his last 16 matches, and he is playing a clay court specialist.

GRENIER-BARRANCO 2:0 sets @ 1.5 (several bookies)
Grenier has good serve and a good game for grass, in general, playing vs another clay court specialist (Barranco).


 

Katerina Siniakova (+1.5 sets) to beat Simona Halep at 2.41 with Pinnacle
Something just isn't clicking with Halep, she's good in patches and bad in patches, and she had a very disappointing Sunday when she lost against Haddad Maia. If she's still in a bit of a slump, Siniakova can certainly steal a set, as she did against Andreescu last time out. Given the odds, I much prefer the set handicap over the games handicap, as Siniakova can produce a meltdown in the decider.

Constant Lestienne to beat Marius Copil at 2.15 with Unibet
I think Constant seems to have himself a good opportunity here. Marius is well past his prime.

We've got plenty of action this week, including Wimbledon qualifiers, and one thing that I'd probably want to point out is that there are no points for the Grand Slam due to the exclusion of Russians/Belarussians. That means that perhaps the motivation factor of players wanting to focus on the Wimbledon will be slightly different this season than previously. Now, there's obviously way more money in the Grand Slam than in these minor tournaments this week, but it's something to keep in mind.
Marta Kostyuk to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 2.25 with Unibet
Krejcikova has played just a single match since February, and she was utterly without fitness in the French Open, so I think it's not too fair to have Kostyuk as the underdog here, especially since she was crushing it nicely yesterday.

@money44 So post them!?

Oh that's a bit being wrongfooted if you want to bet since both players are prone to errors and lapses in concentration so that's a match I wouldn't have my money at and imo Jelena is the better player on grass of those two.

I agree with you that McNally chance of winning is about 50-50 and not what the odds suggest but what put me off in this bet is that Vekic had a day off yesterday whereas McNally played 5 sets of tennis - 3 in Single and 2 in Doubles.

I agree with you that McNally chance of winning is about 50-50 and not what the odds suggest but what put me off in this bet is that Vekic had a day off yesterday whereas McNally played 5 sets of tennis - 3 in Single and 2 in Doubles.

Caty McNally to beat Donna Vekic at 2.31 with Pinnacle
While I'm aiming to back Vekic at some point as the underdog on grass, I can't have her as the fav against McNally, who's had only one poor performance on grass so far this season, losing against the in-form Alexandrova. Vekic can be incredibly shake herself, and I see this as essentially a coin-flip.