Robinnho

Brandon Nakashima to beat Maximilian Marterer at 1.61 with Unibet
The odds are pretty short, but I saw Marterer yesterday against Fabbiano and there wasn't anything I liked. He served average for such a big man and he wasn't finishing points when he should be, low on confidence. Nakashima has certainly looked better than him in recent times and is the better player overall as well, so I think there's slight value even in this price.

Just a heads up - some of the matches might get moved indoors if it rains. Some bookies void that, etc. It's probably best to wait for live betting today if you can stay up long enough. 

Elena Rybakina to beat Barbora Krejcikova at 1.50 with William Hill
Krejcikova has won today against Lauren Davis (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) in a match where the czech player was priced at 1.28 due to how bad Davis was in 2020 (7-13). She played in Abu Dhabi, where she won against Loeb but then lost against Putintseva, both in 2 sets. I never expected such results from her in Singles but I have to say that where she has achieved better results is on clay, where she reached the 4th round of RG in 2020. She did well also in the AO, beating Bondar, Lepchenko and Vickery in the qualy and Kanepi (7-6, 2-6, 6-3) in the 1st round, but then she was destroyed by Alexandrova (1-6, 3-6). Rybakina still has not played any singles match here but she played in Abu Dhabi where she won against Stefanini, Xiyu Wang and Kasatkina, all of them in straight sets, and then lost against Sabalenka in a 3 set match. She was impressive in 2020 (29-10), playing 5 WTA Finals (Shenzhen, Hobart, Saint Petersburg, Dubai and Strasbourg). Yesterday she played a doubles match along Shvedova, losing it by 6-4, 6-2 (vs Jurak/Stojanovic). Krejcikova is doing well but Rybakina is just too good for her. 

Last one for me.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (+1.5 Sets) to beat Garbiñe Muguruza at 1.90 with Pinnacle
I was waiting to see the odds for this match and I think Pavlyuchenkova is a little bit underrated. Muguruza has destroyed Van Uytvanck (6-2, 6-0) while Pavlyuchenkova has destroyed Doi (6-1, 6-4) and Sevastova (6-0, 6-3). None of them has been really tested yet. As I said before, Muguruza reached the Final in the AO the last year, beating Pavlyuchenkova on the way in the QFs (7-5, 6-3). It was a close match, Pavluchenkova played well but her second serves were well attacked by Muguruza (3-21...). I don't expect this to happen again. I think this will be a long match and I think the russian player can win the match or take a set, at least... I know I have said several times how good Muguruza looks but I think the same from Pavluchenkova and Australia is where she feels better (she has reached the QFs of the AO 3 times in the last 4 years, not bad at all...).
@vvararu yep, tell the name of the players that she beat on that winning streak ?

Aryna Sabalenka to win the 2nd quarter at 2.10 with bet365
Taking a look at this market this is the one i like the most for this tournament.
In the 1st quarter Halep is priced at 1.66 but she will have to face Swiatek or Alexandrova and she can lose against them, especially against the pole, who already beat her in the Final of RG by a 6-1, 6-2, so IMO there is no value on her at all at 1.66.
The 3rd quarter is the most unpredicatble because we have Svitolina (2.30) and Mertens (2.62), or even Ostapenko (6.50) and Garcia (8.00), who IMO can beat the first 2 players if they have a good day.
In the 4th quarter we have Naomi Osaka as the most favorite player (1.90) but I see some players there that can beat her, as Gauff (4.00), the player who pulled her off the AO in 2020 in 2 sets, or Konta (6.00).
In the 2nd quarter we have 2 big favorite players, Sabalenka (2.10) and Muchova (2.30), and then we have Kasatkina (8.50). Sabalenka is currently in a 15 winning streak. That winning streak started in Ostrava (Gauff, Sorribes, Brady and Azarenka). Then was Linz (Paolini, Voegle, Dodin, Krejcikova and Mertens) and finally Abu Dhabi (Hercog, Tomjlanovic, Jabeur, Rybakina, Sakkari and Kudermetova), where only Rybakina was capable of taking a set from her. Tomorrow she will play against Kanepi, the giant killer. Kanepi ended the last year winning a lot of matches but that was because she played ITF tournaments. If we take a look at how she did in big tournaments we'll see first round loses in Brisbane (vs Bouzkova), AO (vs Krejcikova) and two second round loses in the US Open (vs Jabeur) and RG (vs Mertens). She has struggled against Sharma in her first round here so I expect Sabalenka to beat her. In her second match she will face Kasatkina or Hercog. To be honest, I'm more afraid of Kanepi than these 2 players. Hercog was one of the players she beat in Abu Dhabi (7-6, 6-2) and Kasatkina lacks the power and the serve that is needed to beat the current version of Sabalenka. The final player she will face is Paolini or Muchova, most likely Muchova. I don't think Muchova is in a good form right now... She did nothing remarkable in 2020 and even she was very poor in Australia, losing in Brisbane in the first round against Riske (2-6, 4-6) and in the second round in the AO, against Bellis (4-6, 4-6). She has destroyed McNally (6-1, 6-1) in her first round here. Let's see if that winning streak can last at least for 3 more matches... 
@K8a It's very important to do well in these preparation tournaments to have a good run in the big one. 

Sure! I am also more on betting football & basketball and occasionally tennis, (ice) hockey, handball, American football....... so I know what you mean.  The biggest difference between football/basketball and tennis betting is a team sport and an individual - here talking about "single" only - sport.  A team sport betting involve more factors on the outcome of the match, more players, coach decisions in tactics on all players as a team, substitutions, etc, etc. and in football the "red card" thing with less player/s on the field causing unequal competition and the "penalty" thing decision by refrees especially in additional (used to called "injury") minutes.
So at the end of the day, there is no easy pick due to the "well managed" handicap system.  In tennis, a 2-1 (best of 3 sets) or a 2-0 is a win.  In football/basketball a 1 goal/point, 2 goals/points............... is a win.  So when you think you see a strong team/player vs a "weak" team/player, there is still this handicap to clear.  You can't be betting on 1.10 to 1.20 win because in the long run, you will loose!  This is because of the conspiracy "theory" which is easy to "fix" 1 point, 2 point.......... as long as it is a win and in football a draw for a "strong" team which does not need to win.  So it is down to your luck NOT to be involved in these "conspired" matches unless you are a big time punter with insider info. These "conspiracy" things are facts as there are players/refrees caught and fined, jailed and/or banned.............. and shot (to deaf).  This thing even happened in the FIFA World Cup venue selection committee!
These are just my perspective.
 

Garbiñe Muguruza (-4,5 Games) to beat Alison Van Uytvanck at 1.83 with bet365
Last one. Muguruza's 2020 was impressive. She ended with a 23-7 record, including a Final in the AO, beating Svitolina, Bertens Pavlyuchenkova and Halep, all of them in straight sets. She started well this year, destroying Mladenovic (6-2, 6-4) and Sasnovich (6-1, 6-4), and lost in the third round against one of the most in form players righ now, Sakkari (5-7, 4-6). IMO the return of Conchita and her new mentality makes her a clear candidate to win everything here. Van Uytvanck is not at her best. She ended 2020 with a negative record (9-12). She has never achieved good results in Australia. In 2020, she was destroyed by Ferro (2-6, 1-6) in the AO, in the 1st round. She never has won a match in the AO or even a set (7 consecutive defeats by 2-0) and she has some big loses as a double 6-0 (vs Azarenka). As I said, looks like she never liked Australia conditions... I think this is one of those matches where the spaniard destroys her opponent, letting her with only 1-5 games won.

Vasek Pospisil (-2,5 Games) to beat Thiago Monteiro at 1.72 with bet365
At first I have to say that Pospisil is one of the players that has been under a strict quarantine and this is one of the reasons why he's priced at these odds against Monteiro. IMO, even under these circunstances, Pospisil should win this one without problems. Pospisil had an impressive 2020. He reached the Final in Montpellier, beating Bedene, Shapovalov, Gasquet and Goffin. In the US Open he won against Raonic and Bautista and he reached the Final in his last tournament (Sofia), beating Marchenko, Struff, Millman and Gasquet, and losing the Final against Sinner (4-6, 6-3, 6-7). Monteiro has played 2 matches on this surface this year. He won against another clay court player, Bellucci, and lost against Isner, in Delray Beach. In 2020 he played 14 matches on hard with a 7-7 record but all those victories were against clay court players (Mayer, Coria and Clezar), low ranked players (Kozlov and Rai Ajeet) and a 15 years player (Nawaf). His only remarkable victory was against Norrie. I just can't imagine Pospisil losing this one, despite his lockdown.

Sure! I am also more on betting football & basketball and occasionally tennis, (ice) hockey, handball, American football....... so I know what you mean.  The biggest difference between football/basketball and tennis betting is a team sport and an individual - here talking about "single" only - sport.  A team sport betting involve more factors on the outcome of the match, more players, coach decisions in tactics on all players as a team, substitutions, etc, etc. and in football the "red card" thing with less player/s on the field causing unequal competition and the "penalty" thing decision by refrees especially in additional (used to called "injury") minutes.
So at the end of the day, there is no easy pick due to the "well managed" handicap system.  In tennis, a 2-1 (best of 3 sets) or a 2-0 is a win.  In football/basketball a 1 goal/point, 2 goals/points............... is a win.  So when you think you see a strong team/player vs a "weak" team/player, there is still this handicap to clear.  You can't be betting on 1.10 to 1.20 win because in the long run, you will loose!  This is because of the conspiracy "theory" which is easy to "fix" 1 point, 2 point.......... as long as it is a win and in football a draw for a "strong" team which does not need to win.  So it is down to your luck NOT to be involved in these "conspired" matches unless you are a big time punter with insider info. These "conspiracy" things are facts as there are players/refrees caught and fined, jailed and/or banned.............. and shot (to deaf).  This thing even happened in the FIFA World Cup venue selection committee!
These are just my perspective.
 

....and you can now oppose that for an easy profit. Edit: Just for the record, I don't think that there's any value whatsoever in backing Li Tu at around 1.50. I'd rather be on Sousa at the current odds.

Li Tu to beat Pedro Sousa at 2.10 with Bet365
Bet365 have opened at 2.10 for Li Tu and I can't have that at all. He should be the slight favorite in this match imo. He's already played a good Australian event where he beat Polmans in the finals and you'd have to rate Polmans somewhat above Sousa on hard courts. Sousa can be great on clay, but he's yet to play a match this year and he had a poor showing in Australia last year, so I expect some issues for him. We're taking a player that's had plenty of match practice against decent opposition against a clay-court guy that will play his first match of the season. 2.10? I'll have some.

I agree with this pick for the tennis played by Kostyuk and not so much about the "seconded" thing.  Kuder may be more experience and mature than the young Kostyuk who is not so consistent and blows hot and cold.  The most important is her desire to win and targeted to reach the top-50 this season.  Tennis wise, the underdog's odds does not suggest her chance of winning but in my opinion closer to 50-50.   

Kudermetova to beat Kostyuk at 1.73 with William Hill
I like how is paid Kudermetova, I was expecting something different... I have nothing much to say, she is better player and she has faced better players (Kontaveit, Badosa and Svitolina). Today she has won against Svitolina after losing the first set and I liked so much what I have seen from her. I haven't liked what I have seen about Kostyuk. She has played a lot of points with too much precipitation, looking for fast winners. She has played a horrible first set (6-0) and could have lost the whole match against Sorribes.
EDIT. When I started writing this she was paid at 1.73 in William Hill, but has dropped to 1.57...
1.61 with bet365 still has value imo

I can also see mager taking a set off christian harrison(IMO the italian is the better player anyway). Mager was solid and resilient against querrey so I don't think he'll go down easily here. And another one that I've bet on is isner - korda over 21,5 games (which was the lowest line available on Unibet). Korda was able to back up his serve against a good returner in tommy paul so normaly he should be able to hold it against isner no problem , while isner will just be himself and servebot like usual. The only problem with this one is that Korda seemed to have a knee problem against paul so that's maybe something to keep in mind..

Rybakina (+4.00 Games) to beat Sabalenka with Marathonbet
Sabalenka is in a 12 winning streak or something like that...but I expect a hard match for her and I wouldn't be surprised to see her losing despite the odds. Both players have won their matches without dropping a single set. Sabalenka has more power but I see Rybakina more consistent and her serve is more reliable, this will be a nice match to watch... 
The +3.5 Games is paid at 1.90 at most bookies

Reading about your suffering while watching tennis workwomen with a huge number of UE, we must agree that female tennis needs at least 10 new Iga Swiatek, she should be cloned immediately ?

of course a WTA  match had to ruin my bet( luckily I cashed out for a bit more money that I bet). Kudos to sakkari though she is in great form. I've placed a bet on svitolina taking a set (done ) and tiafoe winning against fratangelo. Now I don't have 10/10 confidence that tiafoe will win , but I certainly feel he is the superior player that has played at a far higher level than fratangelo for a while now. Fratangelo won a couple of matches against francis but they were a long time ago and I think things have changed since then.

I have also watched part of Gasanova (against Karo P) and Sorribes (against Pera) last matches.  Especially Sorribes' match, it is not possible to stay watching for,  I think more than 4 hours especially if you are not betting.  The match took like more than 3 1/2 hours to complete - the longest match in 2021 so far.  Like Darko08 described Sorribes is a wall, she is nothing special but her persistence and fighting spirit is spectacular.  Playing with players about her standard, she can put the ball "inside the court" most of the time - consistency - and almost every point won came with long rallies.  Gasanova may have played well to beat Karo P in 2 sets but I could see Karo's rustiness and non-readiness to compete, putting many balls "out of the court" - unforce error.
In conclusion, it is not impossible for Gasanova to beat Sorribes especially the latter played the last double match of yesterday but it will take another big performance to break down the "wall" and persistence of Sorribes and/or an off day for Sorribes.  As I could see the excitement of Gasanova in every point she won (n her previous matches), it showed that she is still "green" and a novice in the WTA  tour.  Therefore it will be difficult for her to hold her nerves if points have to be won through hard-earned long rallies as compared to her previous matches.

I have also watched part of Gasanova (against Karo P) and Sorribes (against Pera) last matches.  Especially Sorribes' match, it is not possible to stay watching for,  I think more than 4 hours especially if you are not betting.  The match took like more than 3 1/2 hours to complete - the longest match in 2021 so far.  Like Darko08 described Sorribes is a wall, she is nothing special but her persistence and fighting spirit is spectacular.  Playing with players about her standard, she can put the ball "inside the court" most of the time - consistency - and almost every point won came with long rallies.  Gasanova may have played well to beat Karo P in 2 sets but I could see Karo's rustiness and non-readiness to compete, putting many balls "out of the court" - unforce error.
In conclusion, it is not impossible for Gasanova to beat Sorribes especially the latter played the last double match of yesterday but it will take another big performance to break down the "wall" and persistence of Sorribes and/or an off day for Sorribes.  As I could see the excitement of Gasanova in every point she won (n her previous matches), it showed that she is still "green" and a novice in the WTA  tour.  Therefore it will be difficult for her to hold her nerves if points have to be won through hard-earned long rallies as compared to her previous matches.

Sorribes (vs. Gasanova) + Svitolina (vs Alexandrova) at 1.85 with bet365
I add this one. Gasanova has achieved the bigger wins of her career but I can't see her winning against Sorribes. Gasanova victories against Pliskova and Barthel are impressive but Sorribes' style is completely different and I think the russian has neither the quality nor the consistency required to beat Sorribes. I know how dangerous can be Alexandrova on fast courts but Svitolina is better player and her game here has been more convincing.

Mate, I have never seen Gasanova but i know Sorribes really well and can be really frustrating playing against her... she's a wall. I would not give too much importance on that victory against Pliskova because they are completely opposite players. 

Rybakina to beat Kasatkina at 1.53 with betfair
It is a little bit hard to predict at this point of the season but I like how is Rybakina priced for this one. As we all know Kasatkina is just a shadow of the player she was in 2018. Her last 2 years have been extremely disappointing and I still haven't seen any sign to think this will change now. Rybakina is one of the most improved players of the last 2 years. Her first 2 months of 2020 (just before the pandemic started) were just brutal, playing 3 Finals (Shenzhen, Hobart and Dubai) and beating players like Kenin, Pliskova (2 times), Martic, Mertens,... The surface favors Rybakina's game and her serve is a massive advantage so I expect her to win this (I think she should be priced at 1.40).

This match is cancelled.

Dominic Thiem to beat Novak Djokovic at 2.32 with Pinnacle
Novak Djokovic covered the -3.5 handicap against Zverev, but he's going to face a much harder task against Thiem. Thiem has played consistently well when it mattered so far and it's not tough to see that he was saving himself when he was facing Rublev yesterday. I get why Djokovic is the favorite here, but I'd honestly take everything above 2.00 on Thiem. He's been the better player and Djokovic hasn't played like the world's number one for quite some time now, so no reason to have him as such a big fav imo.