Wildgarden

IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now

Great end to the week, winners at 6.02 & 10.0
€218 profit on the places
Place Bank is now €1,103
€952 profit on the wins
Win bank is now €5,771
 

Nice rating ....I didn't like that whitehaven due to his 10lb rise ...I thought he was poor value because of that ...but sometimes they keep winning lol

Lost
what a bummer ... first two races won
3rd race - only 4 runners and my horses were 1st and 2nd Favourites and finished 3rd and 4th .... ?
this month - +469.88

A few near misses again yesterday, one win and down slightly on the places.
Place Bank +€885
Win Bank +€4,819

Here's todays selections to close out the week for us

13:10 Newmarket Ropey Guest 16:15 Newcastle Great Colaci 16:20 Uttoxetter City Never Sleeps 16:20 Uttoxetter Chatelier 17:15 Newcastle Neon City 17:45 Newcastle Nubough 20:15 Newcastle Be Proud  

this month + 489.88
Going to try 'the BH bet' on some small field races. Probably won't win enough for a cup of coffee if the favourites all go in but I'm avoiding anything odds-on
1.00 Weth - Shan Blue 5/4 and Hold The Note 7/4
1.10 Newm - Ainsdale 6/5 and Ventura Lightning 7/2
3.30 Newm - Waters Edge 2/1 and Kryptos 9/4
prices bet365 bog
8 x 2.50 trebles

Always tomorrow ? £400 up last month going to be £300 odd down tomorrow if I can’t find a bigun ??

1.55 Wetherby. Say The Word (9/1 bet 365). Looked very game when runner up at Huntingdon on heavy ground last season. Off the same mark tomorrow and a slight increase in trip + the uphill finish at Wetherby should suit (and won't mind any more rain). Was weak in the market and didn't show much on reappearance but does look a bit of a barrel so probably just needed the run.
Never traveling or looking like getting involved ?

Wetherby 2.10  Two For Gold 3/1

255 newm 
Duke of kondicote  277
Mutamaded 274 
Speed company  272 
Close race .....Duke of kondicote has some strong form coming into this but mutamaded ran a stinker on all weather last time ...a return to turf should very much suit and looks way overpriced at 33/1 ...top 2 for me 
Duke of kondicote 10pt win 3/1 bet365 
Mutamaded 5pt ew 33/1 betvic 

We should have had a nice day on the place backs but Perfect Moment let us down at 4.48; despite trading into 2.5 to win from 20.86 BSP it failed to place. That gave us a small loss on the places.
Place Bank +€1,032
Takeonefortheteam won at 8.01 which was nice
Win Bank +€5,397

Todays selections

13:15 Lingfield Mariance 13:36 Stratford Skeaping 13:45 Lingfield Hellyn 16:06 Stratford Phoebus Lescribaa 17:30 Chelmsford Boy In The Bar 18:00 Chelmsford Love Dreams 18:30 Chelmsford Reponse Exacte 19:00 Chelmsford Rockesbury 19:45 Southwell Six Til Twelve  

Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers

Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

415 Lingfield - three c's 11-2 betvictor 
Made good ground after being put wide around the turn lto and down in class and distance with Boughey trainer with decent hit rate on all weather, get price whilst it's still there.

415 Lingfield - three c's 11-2 betvictor 
Made good ground after being put wide around the turn lto and down in class and distance with Boughey trainer with decent hit rate on all weather, get price whilst it's still there.

In a sprint race I don't think weight is as such an influence more the class grade and speed rating imo

this month +529.88
Fak 1.02 - Plenty in the Tank 11/8 and Duc de Bourbon 9/2
Fak 1.32 - Wicked Willy 13/8 and Princeton Royale 9/4
prices Ladbrokes bog
4 x £5 doubles

Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.

All odds Bet365:
1.02 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Rock The House @ 25/1
This one is the yard's second string here but I think he's capable of running better than a 25/1 shot after a couple of promising efforts in bumpers. Traded as low as 2/1 in the run despite being sent off at 20/1 on debut, just fading late on and shaped as if in need of the run when returning recently - not beaten too far having made the running. Should strip fitter now and his only half-sibling is a 134-rated jumper so there's hope in the pedigree too and all in all I just think 25s is a bit big.
1.15 Nottingham - 1pt e/w So I Told You @ 10/1
Headstrong sort but does have plenty of ability and definitely it's the right move to bring him back down to a mile after some efforts over middle distances. Still pulled his chance away at Windsor last time under similar conditions to these but that was a small field affair and there's optimism that a better gallop today will help him settle a bit better and less demanding ground can help conserve enough energy for the business end. Big price if he can put it all together today.
1.40 Taunton - 1pt e/w Solstalla @ 18/1
Seems a big price considering she won really well two starts back and suffered a cut to her leg last time out. She's run well on all previous visits to Taunton and whilst not thrown in at the weights, looks capable of bouncing back under ideal conditions so long as there's no lasting damage.
2.02 Fakenham - 1pt e/w Talking About You @ 20/1
Appreciate he has a penalty to carry here but the drift out to 20/1 seems huge if he's good to go here. He's nothing special but knows his job and has hacked up in a juvenile hurdle already in his career. Did the donkey work for a couple of good horses two starts back and was bogged down in soft conditions last time having raced keenly on the front end. That's how he races but he'll know his job here more than a lot of his rivals, he's likely to jump off in front, the better ground suits and if there's a track for a free-racing front runner, it's Fakenham, so 20/1 looks huge if a little disconcerting. 
2.20 Nottingham - 2pts win Show Palace @ 11/2
Surely today is the day for Show Palace. Been threatening to win all season but a combination of being chinned late on, not having any sort of run, injuring his leg and coughing in its last four runs have stopped him from doing so. Has dropped another couple of pounds in the handicap. has absolutely perfect conditions here and so long as he's not still suffering from any of those ailments, should go very close indeed.
2.40 Taunton - 1pt e/w Comeragh Lad @ 66/1
This is a poor race and whilst not showing a great deal at Exeter last time, Comeragh Lad is bred to stay and that was evidenced in some fair runs in the point to points over 3 miles. Wasn't beaten a million miles over 2m2f on its run over hurdles and now goes handicapping off a lowly mark up in trip which promises to suit. In a weak race I thought he had some scope to improve for the stamina test and is worth a quid at huge odds.

Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
If I was playing the Nott'm race I  would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
ATM No bet for me in either race .
G'Luck with your selections

Its my last day off work and I've rated the hcaps and they are all too close ....these 2 races popped up from the class system so I thought what the hell a bit of interest this afternoon once I've got my jobs done lol ......I'm just interested to see how they run ...they are both tough races but the ratings give them lively chances if they can both translate back to all weather which is a big factor ...I'm sensing a case of seconditis ?....nooooooooo

150 nott
Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 
Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

445 Kemp 
Lynn's boy  233 
Top time  232 
Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 
Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 
2pt win double with above race 

Place bank +€1,283
Win bank +€5,421