Tiffy
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Posts posted by Tiffy
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Some good predictions on here folks, thanks
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Celtic V Kilmarnock BTTS NO 1.57
Crystal Palace V Wet Spam BTTS YES 1.83
£10 double please
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11 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
I never have rose tinted specs when backing Palace, business is business and price is the only thing that matters when I make a play. I've only backed Palace twice this season: +0.50 @ Burnley and +0.75 @ Newcastle, both were good selections but had no luck whatsoever. Note how many times I warn people off backing us in certain situations over the years.
Palace top 10 finish @ 7.00 was also a good selection, not many could have foreseen the shower of shit circus that was to follow. When you make long odds bets, lots will crash and burn, that one just crashed and burnt spectacularly.
Appreciate your input on Brighton but I am still none the wiser. It's a difficult one to figure out but that's ante-post betting for you - it's all about timing and decisions aren't as clear as match betting in my experience.
Yes I agree, antepost is very tricky. I've done a couple long shot accas, more for fun really.
I'm always happy to give my input on the Albion, and I'm now going to see if I end up looking clever or a plonker by the end of the season!
Good luck against Wet Spam tmrw, I am tempted to go for BTTS, as it is a must win for both teams.
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22 hours ago, Mindfulness said:
Thanks for replying.
It is hard to put a number on these things sometimes, Brighton have performed well so far and a lot of stats back this up - I don't think you have been flukey.
Really I want to know whether you think this can be sustained?
Well, there is the million dollar question! And I think it can, for the following reasons.
Brighton are consistent, much more so than with any other manager in the past. Last season we didn't hit a barren spell. We just plodded in the same manner all season. Yes we lack firepower, but expect that to changed in January. We have carried on from last season, and improved.
Does Hughton have a plan B? Well, who knows, his plan A works well, and there is good back up on the bench. He surprised me against WHU , by starting with Bong and Izquierdo, meaning that he was planning to play a more attacking game away from home. Probably sensing that the game was there for the taking if we got the first goal.
I agree with you that Hughton is shrewd with his purchases, he knows how to organise a team and has good experience. My main concern is that you really lack firepower and at some point that may start to show. A barren spell maybe difficult to overcome as it will drain confidence and spirit (which is high for now) and Hughton may not have a plan b.
Brighton are 3.5 for relegation right now so markets are basically saying you only have a 28.6% chance of getting relegated this season. It just seems strange to me as you are only 3pts off the relegation zone with 29 games to play + weaker squad and less EPL experience than the teams below you.
Am I just being bitter and biased here or is this clear value play???
Haha, yes, I think you have hit the nail on the head, and letting your emotions get to you. Is it value? I don't know, perhaps? If you think it's value, then go for it, it may well happen.
I think there is more chance of that, than your antepost "Palace in the top 6 " bet that you had. But at the time it was a reasonable choice, (and the price shortened) even before the season had begun.
I wouldn't back us to go down at 3.5, or to stay up at 1.36. You are right, the season is only a quarter gone, and there are 29 games left. Although we are 3 points off relegationn, we are 4 points off a European place.
I really think that you need to start looking at Brighton with the glass half full, and leave those rose tinted specs off when backing Palace.
So, this reply probably doesn't help, but I think we will stay up.(just) And I think we can maintain consistency.
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So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up?
You didn't spot my deliberate mistake (ahem)
Just doing the maths again
If we average 1.2 pts per game, over 38 games that will equal 46 pts
Based on past seasons, that will put us anywhere between 8th - 13th. So, would that be 100% chance of us staying up?
I suppose it would, based on the team performing at their current level.
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On 22/10/2017 at 11:08 PM, Mindfulness said:
Serious question: In percentage terms what do you honestly think Brighton's chances of getting relegated are this season?
I'm not sure really. I don't know if I can work it out into percentage terms (not clever enough!)
From how we have started the season, our form suggests we will avoid the drop. I don't think any relegated team in previous seasons has done as well as we have after 9 games.
I have been impressed with our style of play. Typical Hughton really, well organised, hard to beat, good shape, preserve the point you start with & look to nick all 3. Even the games that we have lost, we have done reasonably well, and have not conceded more than 2 against Arsenal, Man City & Leicester. (Our only 3 defeats)
We are taking points off the teams around us, and if we can continue like this, and acan dd a striker in January, then I can't see us going down. There are other teams on the slide, and I think it will be harder for them to arrest their downward spirals. (As was the case with Villa & Sunderland last season)
Bournemouth should reverted to type, Huddersfield were never would beaters last season, Wet Sham are struggling without Payet, and with their new stadium. Stoke and West Brom could be running out of steam too.
Brighton has a fantastic Chairman, a maths genius who uses algorythims when selecting players to buy. He hasn't bought a turkey yet!
I always look at a table, and if a team has less points than games played, they aren't doing well in my opinion. We have Played 9, gained 11 points (unlucky too not to have 4 more points from the Watford & Everton games). We average 1.2 points per game, so we should end the season with 39 points if we can carry on as we are. That should be enough to keep us safe. And I can't see any reason for it to not carry on.
Of our games played,in the current table, our points gained
Top 6 - P3 PTS1
Mid table - P2 PTS 6
Bottom 6 - P4 PTS 4
So in percentage terms, would that equate to 60-70% chance of us staying up?
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HUD V MAN U (2) 1.33
£5 single please
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1 minute ago, andrewcalo said:
There should be a few away wins this week, not many draws, based on my spasticatrd system.
Haha, missed you on here recently!
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Wet Spam V Brighton
Everyone seems to have us down for a speaking here! But as with the EVERTON game, it is a game where we should be looking to come away with something. WHU are below BHA on goal difference and there is a confidant mood that actually we will be good enough to avoid a thrashing. BHA just lack the quality going forward, and their counter attacks broke down too easily last week. But defensively they are solid, although Duffy could be a doubt, he is in the squad and should be included.
Form suggests it will be low on goals, and I can't see anything other than a low scoring affair. Friday night football doesn't tend to produce too much excitement either.
Here goes
As in the EVERTON game, I think it will be a game which will open up more in the second half...
MOST CORNERS IN 2nd HALF 1.91 WH (I have done this one)
MOST GOALS 2nd HALF 2.1 B365
Then again I could be completely wrong!
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On 13/10/2017 at 0:52 PM, Tiffy said:
BRIGHTON V EVERTON
Having watched Brighton's first 3 home matches, I can honestly say I am impressed with the way they have been playing. CH has them well organised, excellent defensively and quick on the counter attack. It is only a lack of decent firepower that has let us down so far.
Our only loss at home has been to Man City, and the 2-0 score line seems a standout result, especially when you consider it took them 70 mins to score, and then we scored their second goal.
We then beat WBA 3-1, in a comprehensive victory, and Newcastle 1-0, in a tight game.
i'll be expecting another tight game on Sunday against Everton. The match has been sold out for weeks, and the fans are expecting something from the game., a point at least, although with confidence high, 3 doesn't seem unrealistic at the moment.
Brighton have to beat the teams around them, and all That separates them from Everton is goal difference. They both have the same P7 W2 D1 L4 record.
I'd be confident in backing Brighton to get at least a draw. Shane Duffy got MOM. for ROI against Wales & pundits are calling for Dunk to be called into the England squad. Murray should be fit & raring, and I think he gave us an extra threat when he came on against Arsenal. Brown should be fit & ready too. I think it will be tight and low on goals.
BRIGHTON DNB - 2.2
UNder 5 1st half corners 2.0 (landed in the Newcastle game)
Not a bad weekend for me. A shade away from landing the first, and won the second. There were 3 first half corners! EVERTON looked woeful to me, and were booed by their fans. They even joined in the "getting sacked in the morning " chant after Brighton took the lead.
Sometimes you can watch a team, and tell by the way they play, what sort of a season they are in for.
EVERTON had a throw in, in line with the Brighton 6 yard box. Now, most teams would launch the ball into the box, as you need to get the ball near the goal to score. EVERTON threw it back to the halfway line, and passed it back to the keeper. They were booed by their fans!
They are in in for a tough season. Koeman could be the next manager to go!
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15 hours ago, betcatalog said:
I do not think they will be threatened with excellent offensive lines, while Nice has defensive problems, I expect open match with phases and goals, I expect many goals
OGC NICE vs SS LAZIO ROMA @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.92The two teams are fighting open and easily accepting the goal, today I am expecting a game with many final attempts and goals, they can score from at least one goal
SV ZULTE WAREGEM vs VITESSE ARNHEIM @@ Both team to score, odds 1.57Closely defending the Swedes, Athletic Bilbao away from Spain loses by its strength, I expect a very good match with a few goals
OSTERSUNDS FK vs ATHLETIC BILBAO @@ +2.50 Under, odds 1.78You're posting some decent tips recently, I really enjoy reading them, especially the translation!
Good luck tonight with these
- betcatalog and andrewcalo
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On 14/10/2017 at 10:47 AM, Mindfulness said:
Haha yes, that's great! Very funny. These things are great aren't they when fans take the p out of their own clubs.
Congrats on your win at the weekend, probably the standout result of the weekend, and an absolute coupon buster!!!!!!
Season starts now!
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I wanted to take BRISTOL City on a corner handicap last night, but couldn't find a market with either B365 or WH. Does anyone know a decent bookie offering corner markets?
it finished 9-0!
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Today's selections (notll UK)
SHANGHAI SIPG TO WIN & over 3.5 goals (Just finished whilst I was typing 3-3!, Results kill me, need to stick to goals only!)
BRENTFORD V MILWAALL - BTTS & O2.5
BRISTOL ROVERS V MKD - BTTS & O2.5
CELTIC V DUNDEE - Most goals in second half 1.9 (Think it will open up in 2nd half)
£5 returns £79
Have them all as singles as well
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12 hours ago, Alastair said:
Is there not a rule limiting you to staking half your bank ?
If that's the case, I'll have a 7.50 treble please
Thanks for letting mr know if so!
EDIT - It lost thanks to Bristol Shitty!
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BRISTOL CITY V BURTON (1) 1.36
BOLTON V SHEFF WEDS (2) 1.95
PLYMOUTH V SHREWSBURY (2) 2.1
£15.65 Treble please
(Or 7.50 if I can only bet half of my bank)
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BRIGHTON V EVERTON
Having watched Brighton's first 3 home matches, I can honestly say I am impressed with the way they have been playing. CH has them well organised, excellent defensively and quick on the counter attack. It is only a lack of decent firepower that has let us down so far.
Our only loss at home has been to Man City, and the 2-0 score line seems a standout result, especially when you consider it took them 70 mins to score, and then we scored their second goal.
We then beat WBA 3-1, in a comprehensive victory, and Newcastle 1-0, in a tight game.
i'll be expecting another tight game on Sunday against Everton. The match has been sold out for weeks, and the fans are expecting something from the game., a point at least, although with confidence high, 3 doesn't seem unrealistic at the moment.
Brighton have to beat the teams around them, and all That separates them from Everton is goal difference. They both have the same P7 W2 D1 L4 record.
I'd be confident in backing Brighton to get at least a draw. Shane Duffy got MOM. for ROI against Wales & pundits are calling for Dunk to be called into the England squad. Murray should be fit & raring, and I think he gave us an extra threat when he came on against Arsenal. Brown should be fit & ready too. I think it will be tight and low on goals.
BRIGHTON DNB - 2.2
UNder 5 1st half corners 2.0 (landed in the Newcastle game)
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12 hours ago, StevieDay1983 said:
Thanks Stevie D, I'll have a look when I get 5 mins and do some research
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I see the ISL is starting soon, and there is no thread that I can see.
If the IPL is anything to go by, it should be an exciting league to follow.
I was talking to a relative of Teddy Shringhams new assistant (can't remember his surname, but he was Big Sams assistant at Palace), and he was saying that Robbie Keane is the marquee signing for Sherinhams team ATK. They also have Carl Baker & Jussi Jaskeleinen (excuse spelling)
Brighton's heroic ex right back, Indigo Calderon has also joined up.
Dont know if it is a betting market to avoid, due to corruption, but I can see goals if nothing else.
Lets get a thread going, some,ELO ratings & get this thing out there!
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Accrington V LUTON BTTS & 02.5
MKD V Bradford BTTS & O2.5
Shrewsbury & Wigan to win
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On 04/09/2016 at 5:45 PM, StevieDay1983 said:
Wow, this England game is making me fall asleep. Tempted to back a 0-0 finish now with my mortgage!
I backed "most goals in 2nd half" at 2.0.
England take an age to get going, but should get there in the end, especially at home!
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Accrington V LUTON BTTS YES 1.67
Italy V Macedonia BTTS NO 1.3
Georgia V Wales U2.5 1.53
£10 treble please
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My luck turned last weekend, and I have started getting into my groove
It will probably revert back to the usual sh1te this week!
This weekend I like the look of QPR V FUL to be an entertaining game , so I have gone for over 9 corners & BTTS
Aston Villa To win to nil. -- Bolton are due a result sooner or later, but I think Villa are finally getting going and should be too strong at home.
Cardiff V Derby, -- given the opinions of the Derby fans & a look at the stats of both teams I fancy Cardiff to win, and also have the most corners.
Preston V Sunderland, - Home team going well and playing attacking football, against a team on the slide. Another match where I fancy the home team to win & also have the most corners.
Luton V Newport - Neither team score a lot, so I fancy a tight game here. Possibly U2.5 & Undef 10 corners
Tnere, I have said it now! Bring it on.......
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Man Utd (1) 1.17
Cardiff (1) 2.2
Aston Villa (1) 1.5
£10 treble please
Division 5 - Week 3 Selections
in Football Tipster Competition
Posted
All U2.5
CHELSEA V MAN UTD 1.62
SOUTHAMPTON V BURNLEY 1.57
SWANSEA V BRIGHTON 1.53
10 treble please