StevieDay1983

Aston Villa vs Birmingham
It's the Second City derby this weekend when Aston Villa play local rivals Birmingham in this midday kick-off tomorrow afternoon at Villa Park. Both teams have long term aspirations to return to the promised land of the Premier League and there may even be small hopes that they can gatecrash the promotion race this season.
Aston Villa have started to settle down a bit under new manager Dean Smith. Having lost 2 of his first 3 games, the former Brentford gaffer has now guided his side to back-to-back wins in the league. Both were convincing and both wins came with a clean sheet.
Birmingham are once again proving a very dangerous team to play without quite breaking into the play-off positions. Garry Monk has seen his team only lose 1 of their last 13 league matches. Unfortunately, the Blues have drawn 9 of their 17 matches in the Championship this season. Had those draws been turned into victories then Birmingham could be in a very different situation right now.
The head-to-head record offers little hope to Birmingham fans and should fill Villa supporters with confidence. Villa are undefeated against Birmingham in their last 12 league meetings. The last defeat coming in March, 2005 when Birmingham won 2-0 in a Premier League fixture. Oh, how times have changed!
2018 has been a good year for seeing goals at Villa Park. Aston Villa last failed to hit the back of the net on home soil almost a year ago with it last occurring in a 0-0 draw against Millwall in December last year. So backing them to carry on that run makes sense here in what is likely to be a hot tempered affair. Especially considering Birmingham have conceded 6 goals in their last 2 league games.
I'm going to have to back Villa for the home win here. Derby games are always tough to make a call on but Birmingham have hit a bad run at the wrong time. Goals are now being leaked and Villa appear to be gaining in confidence. Birmingham have also failed to score in 7 of their last 12 league meetings with Villa. I can certainly see a business-like 1-0 or 2-0 win for Villa here.
Aston Villa to Win @ 1.91 with BetVictor
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.90 with Bet365

I think I need to stick to bets in spurs games!  At least my Alli to score tip came in

Stoke cost me a very nice 35/1 acca but I did manage to lay them in running as everyone else was at least 2 up!

Rotherham vs Sheffield United
The Championship throws up a derby match of sorts this Saturday lunch time when a struggling Rotherham welcome high-flying Sheffield United to the New York Stadium for this 12:30pm kick-off. It's always fun predicting derby matches when the form book goes out of the window!
Rotherham are sat in 19th place in the league table right now and it's been a frustrating couple of months for the Millers. Paul Warne's side are still arguably exceeding expectations by being outside the bottom three but 6 draws in their last 8 league games has left their fans wondering what could have been.
Sheffield United are probably the big surprise package this season. Chris Wilder's men have stormed their way to 4th in the table and they had previously led the way in the Championship. However, a run of inconsistent results over the past month or so has seen them drop off a bit.
The head-to-head doesn't make good reading for Rotherham fans. Their team has won just 1 of their last 12 league games against Sheffield United. Interestingly, that single victory did come in the last home meeting between these two sides back in 2013.
A whopping 71% of Rotherham's goals this season have come from set pieces so that's where they will look to hurt United. United haven't scored in their last two league matches. The club hasn't failed to score in the league for three games in a row since September 2013.
This is a hard one to call. At face value, it would make sense to back United for the win. Rotherham are a tricky side to beat at home and are going on a decent run of five league games without defeat. I can see them taking something here if they play to their potential against a United side that aren't quite at the races right now.
Rotherham Double Chance @ 2.19 with MarathonBet
BTTS @ 1.91 with Betfred

Hell of a shout there, @waynecoyne! Well done on that one. Astute research coming good. 

Watford and Liverpool are both attractive and both teams score with ease and can score from one goal and make sure both teams score
WATFORD FC vs LIVERPOOL FC @@ Both team to score, odds 1.70

Thanks StevieD. I can see us getting something, as we can grind a result out these days. 
I've gone for the CORNERS though! 
Cheers

Coventry vs Peterborough
League One continues its charge into the festive season this week with two teams harbouring promotion aspirations coming up against each other this Friday night in a 7:45pm kick-off at the Ricoh Arena when Coventry host Peterborough. Who will come out on top?
It's a tough one to call. Coventry are still defying the odds under Mark Robins. An inconsistent start to the season levelled out into a fine run of form that saw the Sky Blues win 5 league games on the bounce during October. A respectable 1-1 draw at home to Accrington Stanley and then a narrow 1-0 loss away to Burton have ended that run but neither result gave reason to think Coventry will go off the rails.
Peterborough are the Championship and League One yo-yo team. Too good for the third tier but too bad for the second tier. So it's understandable that they're in the thick of the play-off action right now. Steve Evans has guided his side to 4th in the league table and just 4 points off the top spot. 6 wins from their first 7 league games saw them set the pace for the season but inconsistency has crept in. The Posh have now won 2, drawn 1, and lost 2 of their last 5 league games.
This match has got a draw written all over it. Coventry boast the superior head-to-head record with 4 wins, drawn 1, and losing just 1 of their past 6 matches against Peterborough in all competitions. However, Posh have the second best away record in the division with 7 wins, 1 draw, and 1 defeat on the road so far this season.
I'm going to back a low-scoring draw here. Coventry have been finding it harder to hit the back of the net with each passing game over the past few weeks. Peterborough have seen over 2.5 goals scored in just 1 of their last 6 league games. I'm not sure this will be leading the highlights reel on the weekend.
Draw @ 3.68 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.03 with Matchbook
@Papa Lazarou, @freestylerx, @allyhibs, @iBetting, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @kulikTS, @golakeh1, @Unnamed, @willie82, @dogmeister, @TheEdge, @JJG, @allthethings, @Mindfulness, @the bastardian, @teddybear3011, @Marek76, @salmonman, @Unnamed, @mij0sim, @jazzman02, @Bobby Vegas, @Teodore, @Tiffy, @nenri981, @MangoTheThird, @Johnmccain, @Papa Lazarou, and @sajtion, are you guys plotting any bets for this weekend's games?

St Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
An in-form St Johnstone side welcome positional rivals Kilmarnock to McDiarmid Park on Saturday for this 3pm kick-off where both sides have a chance to make a huge statement this season by claiming victory and keeping up with the title pace heading into December.
St Johnstone are sat in 5th place with 23 points from 13 matches. It's now 5 wins on the bounce for Tommy Wright's men and it's also five consecutive clean sheets. They are one of the best performing teams in the whole of Europe so backing them at home seems like the obvious choice.
Kilmarnock had been doing well during September and October but form has dipped heading into November. It's left Steve Clarke's men in 4th place with 24 points from 13 games. However, with two draws and one defeat in their last four league games they'll very much be wondering what could have been seeing as they are just 2 points off the league leaders Celtic.
I'm torn between opting for a draw here and actually going all the way to back a St Johnstone win. I guess it would be a fool that bets against a team playing so well at home but then this is the sort of fixture than can put a stop on a run of positive results.
Granted, St Johnstone have won just 1 of their last 6 league games against Kilmarnock and Kilmarnock have lost just 1 of their last 8 league games. I think a draw seems more realistic but the football enthusiast in me is taking the gamble and going for the home win!
St Johnstone to Win @ 2.70 with Unibet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.67 with BetBright

Brentford vs Middlesbrough
I'm going to continue this weekend's trend of covering the televised games in the Championship. The third preview up this week is Brentford versus Middlesbrough that will take place at 5:30pm at Griffin Park. Both sides in need of a win here after substandard results of late.
Brentford have really struggled with life after Dean Smith. The Bees appointed Thomas Frank to succeed Smith on 16th October. Since then it's been just 1 win and 4 defeats for Brentford in the league. It's a run of results that has seen them plummet down the table to 15th place and just 5 points above the relegation zone.
Middlesbrough continue to remain in the promotion hunt. Tony Pulis will have hoped his team would be higher in the table at the moment with the club tipped by many as title winners but he can't complain. 2nd place is still automatic promotion and they're only 2 points behind league leaders Norwich. The frustrations will be drawing 3 of the last 4 league games.
It's been a tough time for Brentford in the head-to-head meetings with Middlesbrough. In fact, the Bees haven't secured a win in the league since December, 1938. That was before Adolf Hitler invaded Poland! Frank's side have also notched up just 7 points from their last potential 30 points in the league. Admittedly, some of that run was down to Smith so maybe these issues have been a long time coming.
I appreciate Brentford won their last home game 2-0 against Millwall but that was a freak result compared to their other games under Frank. Is it a work-in-progress or is this the beginning of a painful decline? I think Middlesbrough are destined to go up this season and this will be another win in the bag. Their defence is too resolute having conceded just 2 goals in their last 7 league games and 8 goals in 17 league matches in total. I'm expecting a vintage 1-0 or 2-0 win for the Boro.
Middlesbrough to Win @ 3.25 with Betfred
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.75 with Unibet

Brighton V Leicester
some good posts on here this week
I couldn't call the result of this game, but what I have noticed is that since the tragedy at the Kingpwer Stadium a few weeks ago, Leicester have stepped up the ante to honour their Chairman.
Brighton don't tend to get the most corners in a game, even at home, and I think that will most probably follow here.
Leicester's last 2 matches have ended up 24-7 in their favour (corners)
Brighton's last 3 matches have seen them lose 20-6, on corners
I'd be tempted to back Leicester Most Corners - @ 1.8
Also LEICS  -1 Corner Handicap @ 2.3
 

i have bought harvey barnes goal minutes at 11 with spreadex (currently 12).
He has scored 6 in 17 games for west brom and often seems to score late on which would be ideal if it happens tonight.

The two teams had a good undefeated run before the break and won several places on the scoreboard. Lion, who is always capable of the better and the worst, regardless of the opponent, is the highest one at this time. Today, however, he will try to give a good joy to his fans and will win, even temporarily, to the second place on the scoreboard in Shabiona. Possible confrontation, but it can have a spectacle and many goals
OLYMPIQUE LYONNAIS vs AS SAINT ETIENNE @@ +2.50 Over, odds 1.50

Everton vs Cardiff
The next game up for Cardiff in the Premier League is a tricky away tie against Everton this Saturday afternoon in a 3pm kick-off at Goodison Park. If I'm being honest, I'm not overly optimistic about this one. The Toffees are finding form and our away record is terrible so this could be a painful one for us.
Marco Silva's side only won 1 of their first 6 league matches but things have started to click recently. The Toffees have only lost 1 of their last 6 league games in a run of results that has propelled them to 9th in the Premier League. Their most recent result was a creditable 0-0 draw away to Chelsea and it could be argued they could even have stolen all three points at Stamford Bridge.
Neil Warnock's men have also started showing a more competitive edge. It took the Bluebirds 9 league games to win their first match of the 2018/19 Premier League season. A 4-1 defeat to Liverpool was a harsh score-line given Cardiff had a chance to snatch a draw at 2-1 down. The 1-0 loss to Leicester was also a rare underwhelming performance. However, the 2-1 win against Brighton in their last game was a pragmatic display against a resolute Seagulls side that shut up shop after their sending off.
Unfortunately, I can't see us taking anything from this game. Everton have lost just 1 of their 6 home league games this season where as Cardiff have failed to win a single game away. Their only point was a 0-0 draw against a 10 man Huddersfield side. My correct score prediction is 2-1 here. I think we'll give it a go but will fall just short against a side that is simply more experienced and more capable at this level.
Everton HT/FT @ 2.20 with Ladbrokes
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.90 with Blacktype
@Mindfulness, @Pep004, @MaliMisko12, @betcatalog, @sajtion, @godofhorses, @Tiffy, @waynecoyne, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @Duke_Tm, @dogmeister, @Arkadi Manucharov, @derbent, @fat, @allyhibs, @6avin24, @discipline, @the bastardian, @Bronxie, @Bett, @KikoCy, @teddybear3011, @markus808, @allthethings, @Kenton Schweppes, @vasilli07, @Dylan Lynch, @neilovan, @JKos, @zemo91, @kulikTS, @mrclubbie, @Judeksi, @Henind666, @Teodore, @kilkenny1, @newjack, @PokerWolf1, @Dave1X2, @real55555, @jazzman02, @Ameer13, @Gedkip, @mcsilks, @MangoTheThird, @Roy The Boy, @DonPaulo, @Duckets, @sjuesju, @dylanphan, and @AndreBR, what do you guys think about this preview and the other betting ahead of this weekend's games?

Ipswich vs West Brom
Ah, back to the grind of the Friday night Championship games. These matches haven't really been too kind to me so far this season but I'm hoping that will change with this match between a struggling Ipswich and an inconsistent West Brom in a 7:45pm kick-off at Portman Road.
Ipswich have endured a tough old campaign so far. The era of Paul Hurst was short-lived. It was an interesting experiment but was doomed to fail with the lack of funding the manager received from the board. He was replaced by Paul Lambert who has steadied things slightly with two draws since he took charge. The Tractor Boys are now rock bottom of the Championship and 5 points adrift of safety. It's looking grim.
West Brom had appeared to have found their feet in the Championship after a slow start. Just 2 wins in their first 5 league games wasn't great but going their next 7 league games unbeaten saw them rise up the table. Darren Moore's team then hit a bump in the road with 3 defeats in their next 4 league games before a rampant 4-1 win at home to Leeds last match. That win has moved them to 5th place and just 5 points off the league leaders Norwich.
The Suffolk hosts don't have a brilliant record against the Baggies coming into this game. It's just 1 win in their last 9 meetings with the Midlands club. However, their last meeting was way back in 2010 so a lot has changed since then. Unfortunately, for Ipswich, it's probably changed for the worse for them!
I'm expecting goals here. West Brom have scored 37 goals in the league so far this season. That's the most number of goals scored after 17 games of an English second tier campaign since Southampton in 2011/12. What a team the Saints had back then as well. The likes of Morgan Schneiderlin, Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana, Jack Cork, Luke Shaw, and James Ward-Prowse all tearing it up in the Championship.
It's also interesting to note that the Baggies haven't kept a clean sheet at Portman Road since 1980. That's 19 visits to Ipswich in a row where they have conceded at least one goal each time. However, Ipswich haven't won at Portman Road since April so we'll see which way the goals flow.
One of West Brom's weaknesses this season is dropping points in games they're expected to win. Losing 2-1 at home to Bolton on the opening weekend, drawing 1-1 away to Birmingham, and losing 1-0 away to both Wigan and Hull. Will this be another underwhelming display? I'm not sure they'll destroy Ipswich. Lambert has tightened things up but both of their two draws have been against fellow strugglers so it's hard to read anything into those games. I think Moore's team should just have too much but it could be closer than many are expecting.
BTTS @ 1.91 with Betfred
West Brom to Win @ 1.95 with BetVictor
@waynecoyne, @sajtion, @arvee, @canaries91, @Mindfulness, @betcatalog, @Magic0024, @malabgd, @CloughandTaylor, @Tiffy, @Gidds, @chris50, @PokerWolf1, @teddybear3011, @skyblues88, @allyhibs, @Icongene, @KikoCy, @willie82, @Neubs, @Papa Lazarou, @kulikTS, @Valkovets, @Pipoca, @padman, @Marek76, @silver fox, @neilovan, @HastGill1, @jazzman02, @andypaps28, @Kenton Schweppes, @rangers234, @newjack, @Kane91, @yossa6133, @The Sexless Innkeeper, @Xcout, @Wanderer89, @four-leaf, @trevor8, @OppoArchitizerLady, and @the bastardian, what bets are you guys all lining up for these games this weekend?

Hi Stevie
it was a good point, especially for the manager but we had zero attacking ambition.
I didnt understand what was going on with the trumpeter who was drowned out by the fans.
I hate these sort of games and usually get them wrong.
It was good to see that mardy little twat wilder's miserable face after the game.
I think we are in for a relegation battle and think United will be top 6-they just lack a bit of quality at the top end. 

Done a small stakes treble on Forest, Norwich and Stoke, was around 15/1. 

Bristol City +0.75 at around 2.00 worth chancing away at Leeds. Both my STR and xG ratings slightly favour Bristol City. In a Championship match between two sides of equal ability (ie separated by home advantage) the away side should be priced at around 3.50 so for me the value lies with the visitors

A game that Chelsea are capable of loosing but Sarri's team are light years ahead on key goal metrics and ELO - the technicals favour Chelsea. Despite this, I was expecting both teams to be on a 0 AH line for this game, and that's how they've been priced.
It's a bit of an awkward fixture: weird derby with either side capable of winning, comming off the back of international break. Personally I wouldn't be confident in backing any 1X2 or AH selection with the prices as they are.
GL if you decide to play.

Think Fulham are too high. Now with Ranieri a new Coach and he´s a good Coach to made the weak Fulham Defensive better. So offensive i think Fulham have some Class, but defensive at the Moment with 31 Goals against them absolut terrible. Now with International Break he have time to change something and also they have for me a little advantage, because they Play against Southampton who have with 8 own Goals a terrible Offensive. So for me i think Fulham is a good Choice...

Good Afternoon Everybody
 
Brighton 2 Leicester 1. Brighton are 21/10 to win this one with betvictor I think that is great value they are not a bad side at home with plenty of work, endeavour, and some pinches of quality in there. Obviously Leicester will not be pushovers but I expect Brighton to nick this with the odd goal in three. BRIGHTON TO WIN 21/10 BETVICTOR
 
Everton 2 Cardiff 0. Cardiff will be up after that win before the international break, but I feel Everton at Goodison will be to much for them, but I don't see a hammering, I edged for 2-0 over 2-1 here which I may regret. EVERTON TO WIN 2-0 6/1 BET365
 
Fulham 1 Southampton 2. Fulham this month for me have  caught up in that "the manager is not up to it" web that newly promoted clubs tend to believe and fall for, I think the manager change that can so often inspire victory in a new managers first game but I don't see that here, even though Southampton are poor I think they will nick it. OVER 2.5 GOALS 24/25 MARATHONBET 
 
Man United 2 Palace 1. Think United will edge this but they seem to be on wobbly legs defensively, with anyone looking like they can score against them, however I think the quality of United will shine through, Martial has hit a nice little patch of form and United seem to be settling down a little bit therefore I think they will win this one with a nervy finish. BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 21/20 BOYLESPORTS & SPORTINGBET 
 
Watford 1 Liverpool 3. Now this will be a little tougher than the scoreline suggest, Watford seem to be right up for the big games at home, and I think this could be a bit end to end which will suit Liverpool and their flying forward tactics. LIVERPOOL TO WIN 3-1 12/1 BET365
 
West Ham 2 Man City 4. Am I being hopeful that the hammers will get 2?? probably but I see City being comfortable say 3-1 4-1 up and West Ham snatching another, City are head and shoulders above everyone with only Liverpool close in my opinion. OVER 4.5 GOALS 27/10 UNIBET & 888SPORT
 
Spurs 2  Chelsea 2 . On paper easily the game of the week and even as I am typing this I have not put  a score in, I think amongst the big games this season this is probably the hardest to call I think the two sides are very evenly matched and that will probably reflect in the result, I digress as I have still no idea what I want to put. I have ended up going for 2-2 and I am not sure why........2-2 12/1 BETVICTOR, BET365, BETSTARS & 188BET
 
Bournemouth 2  Arsenal 3. Think another tough one to call here but I see the reds of Arsenal having just to much for the Cherries here, and edging home by one goal in a high scoring game, Both sides like the attacking side of the game more than they do defending and I think this will play a big part in the score. OVER 4.5 GOALS 3/1 BETVICTOR, UNIBET, BETSTARS, 188BET & SPREADEX
 
Wolves 2 Huddersfield 0. Just because they are at home I believe Wolves will see this one out, Huddersfield are in no rush to score goals it seems and I see no change here, with Wolves attacking players doing all the damage they need to creep back up the table. WOLVES HALFTIME/FULLTIME 11/8 CORAL & LADBROKES
 
Burnley 1 Newcastle 0. Not the most thrilling of teams here which is why I have gone for a 1-0 home win, which means it will end up 3-3 . No seriously I see Burnley Scoring early and then hanging on for dear life to there lead, and Newcastle are not the most potent in front of the onion bag. BURNLEY HALFTIME/FULLTIME 4/1 LADBROKES, BETVICTOR & CORAL
 
Good hunting everyone, and if I have helped in any way you are very welcome and if I haven't, please sip a beer it could be worse  

Chelsea are as big as 2.7 with Marathon.  Spurs a similar price so the bookies don't really know what to expect from this one.
I agree with the bookies this is a difficult game to call and even as a spurs fan I can't really form an opinion on this one.  Spurs have lost at home to Man City and Liverpool, and on that basis I don't think I agree with you that we have showed up against the big teams, as spurs were well beaten in both games even if the score line didn't reflect that.
Gun to head, I would say a draw as I think both teams are fairly evenly matched.  There's only 1 point between them after 12 games which backs the theory the teams are fairly equal in ability.  Spurs are 'due a draw', being the only PL team not to draw yet this season.
Dele Alli has a great scoring record against Chelsea.  He should be back and fit after hardly featuring during the international matches, so maybe for fun Alli anytime scorer could be worth a go at around 4.8 with William Hill.

I'm going to take a major punt this weekend and say that Liverpool and Man City are worth taking on.  Main reasoning as in my post above (and @Mindfulness post on Watford) and that basically this is as good a time as any (after the international break) to take on Man City.  West Ham can blow hot and cold, but have the players to make the game competitive, while Watford have been playing well all season, and Liverpool have been stuttering a bit and have a big CL game on Wednesday to think about.
Watford +1 at 2.7 and West Ham +2 at 2.2 (both betfair) are my bets.  Also very small stakes on the double at 5.94

You're a braver man than me Stevie, I can't put money on this Scotland team, not with McLeish in charge.

Scotland vs Israel
The final night of UEFA Nations League matches will see Scotland take on Israel in a winner-takes-all clash at Hampden Park in a 7:45pm kick-off tonight. Victory for either side will see them progress to League B and a draw will also deliver that outcome for Israel. Huge pressure on the home team here but so much to gain.
Scotland defied the previews of a few of us on here by absolutely destroying Albania away in their last game to give themselves a great opportunity to earn promotion to League B. Before the game on Saturday it seemed that Alex McLeish's side were facing humiliation with a potential elimination to League D that would result in Nations League games against the minnows of European international football next time around. Thankfully, results went in their favour so they avoided that fate.
Israel have been a mixed bag so far in this competition. Andi Herzog has seen his side lose away to Albania but then pick up wins at home against both Albania and Scotland. A point here would confirm their place in League B and potential matches against the likes of Germany, Croatia, and Czech Republic.
Before their 4-0 win over Albania, I was ready to write Scotland off. I have no idea where that result came from. McLeish has kept the wolves from the door for one more game but they will need a result here to convince people that the win in Albania was anything but a one-off.
Israel aren't the best performing side on the road. Herzog's men have failed to even score in 3 of their last 4 away matches. You can also realistically expect there to be a limit on goals here. Scotland have seen less than 2.5 goals scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive home games. That is a theory emphasised by both teams scoring in just 2 of Israel's last 12 matches. I reckon Scotland might do it. It'll be close and a stereotypical Scottish heartbreak seems the most realistic outcome but I want to show @allyhibs and his countrymen some faith after sacking them off last time around.
Scotland to Win @ 1.83 with Bet365
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 1.73 with MarathonBet