Valiant Thor
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Posts posted by Valiant Thor
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Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?)
As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them
14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp
28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
- vikki37 and richard-westwood
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2
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Double post
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42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Interesting though your take on value.....we differ slightly because In every race there are about 3 or 4 donkeys....i get rid of those then base my value on what's left ....its never been a problem as 99 times out 100 the donkeys finish no where and its makes the race easier to rate cos i take them out at the start so in a 28 runner race I'll be rating 22 etc then i base the value on that but that's just me lol
Im not interested how a horse ran in the past or who it beat and didnt beat, Im only interested in how it will run on average against the others today
The "value" as you put it is not based on the books price per say , Its based on the numerical differences in the ratings (Z-score) so the more accurate the ratings the more accurate the price , as long as every horse is rateable then the z-score (std dev, mean ,blah blah blah etc etc) tells you how they should fare on average against one another in that race that then changed from a %age to odds gives an indication of how the different horses should be priced according to the difference in the ratings
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2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I really enjoy your ratings and as you said when our horses match ...they usually run pretty well but that's to be expected given the volume of form on both sides ......I'm rating the sodexo gold cup saturday currently for the forum it's this weekend big race ....will you be rating ?? It's a very very hard race do woukd be very interesting what comes up
Yes ,I'll be rating it.
Wont be till Sat though as ground on the day is taken into consideration and at this time of year it can turn in the blink of an eye so nearer the race the better plus ratings alter with withdrawals etc etc
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:
220 chep
Galileo silver 288
Arkyn 285
Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances
Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365
Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365
This is one of the races Ive done as well
I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT
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WEEK 7 Roundup
8 form 14 (57%) again for selections this week
Some great games to watch but unfortunately the NAP & NB bets had a blowout,though the SAINTS did manage to win their game ( Cowboys..dear oh dear..how bad)
All selections still in profit
Selected bets clinging on to profit
NAPS go into the red
NB Still in profit
ATB
VT
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32 minutes ago, LeMale said:
I missed the race, but 6th place. I have to say that it appears they do not send through race reports like other company, which is disappointing, so will have to wait and see what they say next week.
Watch the race on sportinglife
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2.50 Ayr GENERAL BUX @ 2/1 B365
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
Jollys Cracked it came 5th (En Meme Temps 6th)
EW Doubles
24pts staked
76.04 returned
52.04pts profit (233.5% ROI)
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4 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
So we both have point of principle and jollys cracked it now ....let's see how they run lol
I havent backed PoP
Still got the doubles running
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18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Caius non runner ...I'll replace with jolts cracked it at 12/1 who looks overpriced and was 5th on list ..now 4th
Point of Principle moves up to 3rd now Caius a NR after race re-rated
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13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Well rated in the first race .....hope you backed nutsxwell ...was a big price... old grange was 4th but still ew so he ran well . .....other race is interesting too to see how they run ....only negative for caius is the ground ..I thinknideally wants good and soft is an unknown ?
Yep
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1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:
When our rating matched on the flat the selections combined weren't a million miles out
I dont bother with twig hopping that much but Ive done these 2 races as a comparison
Seems we both have OLDGRANGEWOOD & CAIUS MARCIUS possible ew double ??????
I put Fizzy Feet as my nap of the day in the comp not because its my best bet of the day, but just I couldn't be bothered looking through the card
Now Ive rated the above might as well do cross card 1pt ew doubles 5 places skybet seeing as Ive made the effort
cross card EW doubles 24pts staked skybet
Ive put in the odds I got from sky as the previous were best odds available at assorted books
Thats part 1 sorted (Imperial Presence party pooper )
CAIUS MARCIUS a NR now so get a ew single on NUTS WELL and the other 2 placed horses.
1 of the last 2 come in as well ( greed is good )
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18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
Old roan chase aintree
Oldgrangewood 366
Crievehill 361
Itchy feet 360
Oldgrangewood is a fair few points ahead in this tricky race ....seems to run well first time up and may well improve on a good season last year ...shoukd run well ...
Crievehill is 7lbs above his last win but that was a good race and 7lb is only 3 lengths so is still capable of running a big race in a race like this ...chances
Oldgrangewood 10pts ew 8/1 bet365
Crievehill 5pts ew 20/1 bet365
46 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:340 ain't
Caius Marcius 344
Mohayyed 342
Point of principle 340
Clever as a fox 337
Clever as a fox is an improving type and could run well today but the top 3 here are all 14/1 so look very good value ...I'll try small wins and hope they spring a surprise
Caius Marcius 5pt win 14/1
Point of principle 5pt win 14/1
Mohayyed 5pt win 14/1
All generally available
When our rating matched on the flat the selections combined weren't a million miles out
I dont bother with twig hopping that much but Ive done these 2 races as a comparison
Seems we both have OLDGRANGEWOOD & CAIUS MARCIUS possible ew double ??????
I put Fizzy Feet as my nap of the day in the comp not because its my best bet of the day, but just I couldn't be bothered looking through the card
Now Ive rated the above might as well do cross card 1pt ew doubles 5 places skybet seeing as Ive made the effort
cross card EW doubles 24pts staked skybet
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1.57 Aint ITCHY FEET @ 3/1 B365
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9 hours ago, ipswich45 said:
interesting to see you've gone for Jets to beat the Bills from what ive seen from NFL Redzone on sky so far been poor at best , Patriots should beat 49ers but expecting that to be a close game and im glad someone agrees with me Dallas to beat Washington (identical odds) when i did selections in Coral earlier i believe Seattle @ Arizona game is now the `late late' game Sunday
All selections are computer generated from a basic program I wrote years ago that does it all automatically, all I do is post the selections.
No injuries / suspensions etc are taken into account just number crunching.
I personally just dutch bet the NAP & NB every week and any profit (if any) I make at the end of season lump 50% of it on the prediction for the super bowl
Last season ended with 2.38pts profit on the season (14% ROI)
That gave 1.19pts going on the Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.9 which returned 2.26pts
Giving the total of 3.45pts profit on the season ( 20% ROI)
G'Luck whatever you back
VT
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4.10 Chelt PIPESMOKER @ Evens B365
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5.10 Wolv FROW @ evens Hills
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4.55 Font SEASIDE GIRL @ 13/8 B365
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BOG
in At The Races
1 hour ago, LeMale said:Ah BOG......... a distant memory
There's more than 1 way to skin a cat,
If the average of the other books is greater than your extra place race price (which they usually are), take sp instead of the price then you'll get the better price not quite BOG but usually better than the price they offer pre race on the extra place races.- kroni, Point the way, LeMale and 1 other
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4
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12.55 Yar GLESGA GAL @ 15/8 Hills
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2.20 Ponte THE GRAND VISIR @ 13/8
Naps - Tuesday 27th Oct
in NAP of the Day Competition
Posted
1.20 Chepstow EVERGLOW @ 9/4 B365