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Valiant Thor

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Posts posted by Valiant Thor

  1. 42 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    Interesting though your take on value.....we differ slightly because In every race there are about 3 or 4 donkeys....i get rid of those then base my value on what's left ....its never been a problem as 99 times out 100 the donkeys finish no where and its makes the race easier to rate cos i take them out at the start so in a 28 runner race I'll be rating 22 etc then i base the value on that but that's just me lol

    Im not interested how a horse ran in the past or who it beat and didnt beat, Im only interested in how it will run on average against the others today
    The "value" as you put it is not based on the books price per say , Its based on the numerical differences in the ratings (Z-score) so the more accurate the ratings the more accurate the price , as long as every horse is rateable then the z-score (std dev, mean ,blah blah blah etc etc) tells you how they should fare on average against one another in that race that then changed from a %age to odds gives an indication of how the different horses should be priced according to the difference in the ratings
     

  2. 2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    I really enjoy your ratings and as you said when our horses match ...they usually run pretty well but that's to be expected given the volume of form on both sides ......I'm rating the sodexo gold cup saturday currently for the forum it's this weekend big race ....will you be rating ?? It's a very very hard race do woukd be very interesting what comes up 

    Yes ,I'll be rating it.
    Wont be till Sat though as ground on the day is taken into consideration and at this time of year it can turn in the blink of an eye so nearer the race the better plus ratings alter with withdrawals etc etc  :ok

  3. 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

    220 chep 

    Galileo silver  288

    Arkyn 285 

    Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 

    Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365

    Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365 

     

     

    This is one of the races Ive done as well ;)
    image.png.598e4935e6d1b3400df545b2623452fa.png
    I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
    I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
    Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
    GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps :hope
    but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
    G'Luck VT :ok

  4. WEEK 7 Roundup
    image.thumb.png.249eead43d977d0c582b6899f3bfdb62.png
    8 form 14 (57%) again for selections this week :D
    image.png.0f249a6c841b58a039c42ac3d9b90a16.png
    Some great games to watch but unfortunately the NAP & NB bets had a blowout,though the SAINTS did manage to win their game ( Cowboys..dear oh dear..how bad)
    image.png.45aac80cb29b5f0f4d8a2ee394831ffc.png
    All selections still in profit :cigar
    Selected bets clinging on to profit :cigar
    NAPS go into the red :@
    NB Still in profit :cigar
    ATB
    VT :ok
     

  5. 18 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    Caius non runner ...I'll replace with jolts cracked it at 12/1 who looks overpriced and was 5th on list ..now 4th 

    image.png.1b89f4e9cffd7bedaa7a65a355b4d5e4.png
    Point of Principle moves up to 3rd now Caius a NR after race re-rated :ok

  6. 13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    Well rated in the first race .....hope you backed nutsxwell ...was a big price... old grange was 4th but still ew so he ran well . .....other race is interesting too to see how they run ....only negative for caius is the ground  ..I thinknideally wants good and soft is an unknown ?

    Yep
    image.png.f7284c23770cc9b390ed7ff1b1a44acd.png

  7. 1 hour ago, Valiant Thor said:

     

    When our rating matched on the flat the selections combined weren't a million miles out ;)
    I dont bother with twig hopping that much but Ive done these 2 races as a comparison
    image.png.e788f764209946a9b913d277fab5b70d.png  image.png.ab3cc80ac011efcf37d87b5a62a4459a.png
    Seems we both have OLDGRANGEWOOD & CAIUS MARCIUS possible ew double ??????
    I put Fizzy Feet as my nap of the day in the comp not because its my best bet of the day, but just I couldn't be bothered looking through the card :lol
    Now Ive rated the above might as well do cross card 1pt ew doubles 5 places skybet seeing as Ive made the effort
    cross card EW doubles 24pts staked skybet :ok
     

    image.png.9ee07367463f8fb99682deeb5c937216.png
    Ive put in the odds I got from sky as the previous were best odds available at assorted books
    Thats part 1 sorted (Imperial Presence party pooper :@ )
    CAIUS MARCIUS a NR now so get a ew single on NUTS WELL :D and the other 2 placed horses.
    :hope 1 of the last 2 come in as well ( greed is good :lol )

  8. 18 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    Old roan chase aintree

    Oldgrangewood  366

    Crievehill    361 

    Itchy feet   360

    Oldgrangewood is a fair few points ahead in this tricky race ....seems to run well first time up and may well improve on a good season last year ...shoukd run well ...

    Crievehill is 7lbs above his last win but that was a good race and 7lb is only 3 lengths so is still capable of running a big race in a race like this ...chances 

    Oldgrangewood 10pts ew 8/1 bet365 

    Crievehill 5pts ew 20/1 bet365 

     

     

     

     

    46 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    340 ain't 

    Caius Marcius  344 

    Mohayyed 342 

    Point of principle   340 

    Clever as a fox 337 

    Clever as a fox is an improving type and could run well today but the top 3 here are all 14/1 so look very good value ...I'll try small wins and hope they spring a surprise 

    Caius Marcius 5pt win 14/1 

    Point of principle 5pt win 14/1 

    Mohayyed 5pt win 14/1 

    All generally available 

    When our rating matched on the flat the selections combined weren't a million miles out ;)
    I dont bother with twig hopping that much but Ive done these 2 races as a comparison
    image.png.e788f764209946a9b913d277fab5b70d.png  image.png.ab3cc80ac011efcf37d87b5a62a4459a.png
    Seems we both have OLDGRANGEWOOD & CAIUS MARCIUS possible ew double ??????
    I put Fizzy Feet as my nap of the day in the comp not because its my best bet of the day, but just I couldn't be bothered looking through the card :lol
    Now Ive rated the above might as well do cross card 1pt ew doubles 5 places skybet seeing as Ive made the effort
    cross card EW doubles 24pts staked skybet :ok
     

  9. 9 hours ago, ipswich45 said:

    interesting to see you've gone for Jets to beat the Bills  from what ive seen from NFL Redzone on sky so far been poor at best    , Patriots should beat 49ers but expecting that to be a close game  and im glad someone agrees with me Dallas to beat Washington (identical odds) when i did selections in Coral earlier      i believe Seattle @ Arizona game is now the `late late' game Sunday 

    All selections are computer generated from a basic program I wrote years ago that does it all automatically, all I do is post the selections.
    No injuries / suspensions etc are taken into account just number crunching.
    I personally just dutch bet the NAP & NB  every week and any profit (if any) I make at the end of season lump 50% of it on the prediction for the super bowl
    Last season ended with 2.38pts profit on the season (14% ROI)
    That gave 1.19pts going on the Chiefs -1.5 @ 1.9 which returned 2.26pts
    Giving the total of 3.45pts profit on the season ( 20% ROI)

    G'Luck whatever you back
    VT :ok
     

  10. 1 hour ago, LeMale said:

    This is a joke!!! First they say BOG is now only available after 0900hrs on the day of the race, now no BOG at all on a race where they offer extra places or money back. I assume this is a rule for everyone and they're not just stopping me personally? 

    Ah BOG......... a distant memory :lol
    There's more than 1 way to skin a cat,
    If the average of the other books is greater than your extra place race price (which they usually are), take sp instead of the price then you'll get the better price not quite BOG but usually better than the price they offer pre race on the extra place races.

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