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Valiant Thor

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Posts posted by Valiant Thor

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    formatting

    Its not as straight forward as it seems at first glance proceed with caution

    Id concentrate on the most valuable race of the day as a trial to see how it pans out (paper test)
    Today's is the 2.00 at Wincanton

        rating Odds TOTAL Selections
    127 The Kings Writ  0 9 9  
    125 Poppa Poutine  2 6.5 8.5 x
    125 Oscar Robertson  2 3.75 5.75 x
    122 Truckin Away  5 13 18  
    120 Ede'iffs Elton  7 4 11  
    120 Favori De Sivola  7 6.5 13.5  
    116 Putdecashonthedash  11 9.5 20.5  
    		                                                                                                       
               
               
               
               
               
               
               

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    wrong price

    1 hour ago, Wildgarden said:

    anything easy thats available than trying to duplicate? could tie in with ratings see if improves performance / can u provide example never done this myself

    OR is a weighting method in handicaps ,in flat racing there should be a  14lb difference between top/bottom weight anything over 14lb is out of the handicap.
    ***THIS IS ONLY AN EXAMPLE OF LINEAR WEIGHTING AND NOT THE CORRECT WIN RATIOS***

    image.png.80360170282929defd0018f592e41fcb.png 

    Say top OR wins 33% of its races .. so  0 = 33%
    1lb less wins 28% of its races so -1 = 28%
    Etc Etc

    If you take the top weight as 0 then -1 every lb below  top weight provides your rating anything greater than -14 is out of the hcp so classed as -14
    the win % gives you your expected break even price
    Take Todays 5.30 @ Kemp

    image.png.baca400dd25b073c8e640bd3148356f7.png


    The above Its pretty self explanatory .
    the red circled number on the top row is the sum of the win%'s  which should then be divided into the win % of each horse to make overall % of all runners to1.
    1 would then be divided by the new %'s to give the Min Odds
    Divide the min odds by 1+your REALISTIC profit margin Range (mim/max) and there is the price you should be looking for
    IE
    Arousing  .33/1.03 = .32 = MIN Odds  =3.12 if your min req edge is 15% then you would multiply 3.12* 1.15 =3.58 so anything above 3.58 would give you your required profit
    as it happens it won @ 4.00 happy days :cigar

    All you need to do is find the correct Win% per pound for each rating and there you have it

    ATB
    VT:ok

    Racing Chat - Tuesday 8th March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    38 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    Just a question - do the early prices or prices on the morning of the event better reflect market confidence in a certain horse?  Maybe it doens't matter?

    Sp is the best indicator of W.O.M / public opinion  , The closer to 1.00 the more accurate the market confidence.
    This leads to the problem of finding EV as you never know what the sp is until the off.
    Therefore its good practice to price the races up yourself with an achievable profit margin built in (15% ish), the more accurate your pricing is the better chance of making a profit , only then taking a bet on if it is equal to or better than your expected price.

    Rating and Poisson distribution

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    . It does involve the use of the dreaded possion but one has to start somewhere!

    There's not that much wrong with Poisson, does what it says on the tin so to speak
    Its just people tend to take its result as "carved in stone" and are surprised when everything doesn't turn out hunky dory.
    That's why models should be checked with other methods (chi etc) for validity

    Zero Inflated poison is a better model for football IMO as it takes into account the additional amount of 0 goals that occur
    maybe that model would be better suited to AGS as there's more times they have 0 goals than 1+ goals

    G'luck
    VT :ok

    Rating and Poisson distribution

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    posted itself whilst doing draft

    @harry_rag

    I'd had a couple of bottles of Marques de Caseres last night so didn't really have my thinking head on
    Basically what you want to predict is the probability of a binary (yes/no) event occurring.
    Logistic Regression would be the easiest model you should be looking at (IMO)

    P(scores) = 1/1+a X^b
    a & ^b are adjusted parameters that give the best fit to the model

    ie
    say the book give 4.0 (3/1) for Player A to score anytime
    if the bookies odds for scoring were 100% correct then the model would be  P(A scores) = 1 / 1+X or 1/4 = 25%
    But by putting your past data into a log reg model it may give you factors 1.1 for a & 1.3 for ^b
    This would then give the model P( A scores) = 1/1+1.1*(3)^1.3
    P(A scores) =1/1+1.1*4.17 =1/5.58 = 18%
    this would mean the bookies overestimate the chance of Player A scoring @ 25% to his actual chance of 18% giving a negative edge
    Ex Value = 3*0.18 - 1*0.82 =0.54-0.81 =-0.27 or -27%

    There are plenty of vids on youtube to help set up Log Reg

    ATB
    VT:ok

     


     

    Rating and Poisson distribution

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, harry_rag said:

    Any thoughts on the best distribution(s) and/or reading matter specifically from an anytime goalscorer perspective?

    I must admit its not a subject Ive come across much in my reading
    Its a very select market thats for sure.
    Depends on what data you have and how much you have of it.
    GS'rs can go an age between goals then have a run of a lot all at once hence a lot of outliers (not good)
    So I suppose linear weighting would be the way to go , but that works best on high scoring games , baseball ,Nfl, basketball etc
    Monte Carlo simulation is another track which would fit the data but due to the lack of goals scored even over a season its not enough.
     

    Take a look @ THIS SITE  (Tonys a top sports modeller)
    Its an aussie football site but there could be a few models on player score ratios somewhere in there you can adapt your data to fit
    In the meantime I'll have a look on a few of my portable drives to see if I have any any thing vaguely related to CG scorer models :unsure

     

    ATB
    VT :ok

     

     

     

     

    Rating and Poisson distribution

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted

    12 hours ago, Charon84 said:

    Going to order the book. Read same type of book for betting on horses while ago...good stuff.

    Personally I wouldn't bother its not really what your looking for. ( Junk for the masses )

    12 hours ago, Charon84 said:

     Additionally; I like messing around with data and Excel.

    THIS IS A BETTER BOOK FOR WHAT YOU WANT
    With this you'll learn how to set up in excel some of the more common models you need in an easy to follow plain English format ( Not math heavy ).
    Distributions Models
    Poisson
    Zero Inflated Poisson
    Negative Binomial
    Geometric
    Uniform
    ( unfortunately no Bivariate Poisson)
    It also shows you how to set up Chi tests for each Model to check which one is performing best @ the present time. ( models are dynamic rather than static )

     

    Sorry to rain on your Parade but...
    Poisson didn't work in the 80's when I was first experimenting with it and still doesn't work now . ( Dont even go there for CS prediction with any of them )
    With sports betting you first have to think about it logically ...
    1] If a simple distribution method that every man and his dog can use could find value bets , (would then become over bet and hence no value)
    2] Bookmakers have better models and more information than you could ever have,so would adjust accordingly therefore no value
    On a less negative note
    Some models are better @ pointing you in the right direction than others ( which is what they should be used for & not as " set in stone predictions" ),
    Of the above I would rank in predictive order for W-D- L success -
    Zero Inflated Poisson
    Uniform
    Poisson

    Enjoy yor model building

    ATB
    VT :ok

     

    Racing Chat - Wednesday 2nd March

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    make bold

    53 minutes ago, alexcaruso808 said:

    Where did you get the info about how far the horse has travelled?  The Racing Post app used to display such info, but it seems they updated it and the info is no longer available.  

    The info is still there
    Click on the 3 Blue Dots at the top in RP app
    Go on signposts
    Long distance travellers

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