Valiant Thor
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Content Count
3786 -
Joined
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Last visited
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Days Won
11
Posts posted by Valiant Thor
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7 hours ago, Villa Chris said:
Simply The Betts is the class act but could get pegged back carrying top weight.
@ 9/2 I wouldn't touch it with stolen money
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Dont think I'll be playing in this race , there's only about 5 horses from the 16 that shouldn't win it whatever happens,( but its racing so you never know )
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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
4 races worth rating @ Donny
12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )
Staked 100pts
Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)
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4 races worth rating @ Donny
12.55
Revich 7pts ew @ 17
Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
1.30
No bets
2.05
Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
3.15
Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
1 winner profit
3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )- justice, richard-westwood and vikki37
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3
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WEEK 8 UPDATE (The less said the better
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Only 5 winners from the total selections 35.7%
The NAP , NB & a selected bet all missed the spread
Selected bets & Naps in the red
While all selections & NB cling on to a profit .
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5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
100pts staked Skybet
Out of all the 5 runners Lord Sparky was the one I most expected to at least place![:\](https://forum.punterslounge.com/images/smilies/ohwell.gif ":\")
Bad day at the office with a loss of 30.74pts
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I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
100pts staked Skybet
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20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
Byron Flyer just missed out on the 4 places paid as did Mister Malarkey on the 5 places paid
Valtor seemed to make a bad landing 3 or 4 out dropping away quickly after that
With Teqany a NR I got an ew single on Regal Encore which virtually returns my stake on the races so no harm done .
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WEEK 8 ( sorry its late 1 game played but it wasnt a bet so no harm done )
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IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
20pts staked
Update
Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now
- The Equaliser, BBBC, richard-westwood and 2 others
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4
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1
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9 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)
Using RPR TR I get
Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple
G'Luck
D o C a NR now
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12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
255 newm
Duke of kondicote 277
Mutamaded 274
Speed company 272
Close race .....Duke of kondicote has some strong form coming into this but mutamaded ran a stinker on all weather last time ...a return to turf should very much suit and looks way overpriced at 33/1 ...top 2 for me
Duke of kondicote 10pt win 3/1 bet365
Mutamaded 5pt ew 33/1 betvic
We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)
Using RPR TR I get
Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple
G'Luck
D o C a NR now
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7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners) 4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable markResults
Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown
)
ATB
VT
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6.30 Chelm RESPONSE EXACT @ 4/1 B365
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Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important
Here are all today's qualifiers
Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
Therefore....
At my expected odds (All runners) 4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark- vikki37, yossa6133, The Equaliser and 2 others
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5
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1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:
Same as yesterday both mugged by an outsider but on a normal day they would have won so they ran well
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9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
445 Kemp
Lynn's boy 233
Top time 232
Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about
Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic
2pt win double with above race
mugged again
Illes Memories missed the break so there was no danger there, winner wasnt even on he radar
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3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
Out of the 4 from Kempton Lady Pendragon ew is the best option in the lucky last
But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
That didn't go according to plan
5pts ew Lady Pendragon 8/1 in the last @ Kemp
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3.32 Fakenham JACKSON HILL @ 11/4 B365
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Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch
6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
Out of the 4 from Kempton Lady Pendragon ew is the best option in the lucky last
But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.- Wildgarden and vikki37
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2
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1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:
150 nott
Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew
Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places
1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:445 Kemp
Lynn's boy 233
Top time 232
Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about
Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic
2pt win double with above race
Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
If I was playing the Nott'm race I would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
ATM No bet for me in either race .
G'Luck with your selections
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4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:
Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?)
As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them
14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp
28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
Thanks to Cross Fire a NR 28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run -
13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Bummer ...nicely rated though ...he hadn't run for 18 monthes so couldn't account for that
If GS hadn't have been a green rated (downgraded to orange now
) I would have backed Spectator but thats life , swings and roundabouts.
Be nice if a few of my others pop in to make up for it
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7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
220 chep
Galileo silver 288
Arkyn 285
Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances
Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365
Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365
Unlucky there Richard
As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:This is one of the races Ive done as well
I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps
but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
G'Luck VT
Spectator wins @ 22/1
Paddy Power Gold Cup
in At The Races
Posted
I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least.
If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.