Valiant Thor
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Posts posted by Valiant Thor
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On 8/4/2022 at 9:58 AM, Valiant Thor said:
Royal Parade is the lowest forecast fav (RP) and has the best Fav > 2nd Fav differential (which imo is a better indicator than just being fav)
Meet time Horse F-Fav 2nd F-Fav Fav 2nd Fav Differential Yarm 14.40 Royal Parade 1.33 6.00 > 75% 17% 351% Brigh 14.20 Inspirited 1.44 5.50 > 69% 18% 282% Yarm 14.10 Bresson 1.50 4.50 > 67% 22% 200% 44 minutes ago, Yalwen said:I am wondering how you calculate the ‘price differential’ to such precision as 267%. Would you be prepared to show us how as I don’t think I have come across it before.
Royal Parade (75% / 17% -1) * 100 = 342%
The reason why its 351% in the above post is due to not rounding in excel
ODDS INVERSE 1.33 0.751879699 6.00 0.166666667 -
Double post ?
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12 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
The 1st selections is Bresson in the 2.10 at Yarmouth
Why would that be ?
What betting forecast are you using for your datum?Royal Parade is the lowest forecast fav (RP) and has the best Fav > 2nd Fav differential (which imo is a better indicator than just being fav)
Meet time Horse F-Fav 2nd F-Fav Fav 2nd Fav Differential Yarm 14.40 Royal Parade 1.33 6.00 > 75% 17% 351% Brigh 14.20 Inspirited 1.44 5.50 > 69% 18% 282% Yarm 14.10 Bresson 1.50 4.50 > 67% 22% 200% ATB
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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
What I decided to do today was look at the AE for the various price bands based on best bookies price which has shown that, at 2.75 or bigger, the selections are break even at worse even if you just took that price.
I think this is the part you may be getting what I said mixed up.
We'll cut your data down to 3 imaginary games A,B,C with 2 winning
You go through all your data with each individual Bookie and find the worst one (lowest A/E) this will then be the book which have offered the lowest odds overall. (hardest to beat, Most accurate)
You would then use this book as your datum (take all your odds from this book only to make your A/E)
If you are still getting positive returns similar to the one you did with best odds, then great.
You then take the teams which in this case is PP have selected @ 2.75 and look up the prices in the other books which you know by picking the worst book will have better prices
Your getting +EV of approx 3% just by constructing your model from the worst book.The idea is to try to get as near to break even as possible using the worst performing book as the datum or your model
so your virtually guaranteeing + EV on most bets.If the worst book doesnt produce a near break even or +EV then move up to the next one etc
NEVER make your model using best prices
Where are you going from there , nowhere , your trying to add a %age that doesnt exist
You go on BF and pinch an odd point or 2 extra, if your model is from the worst odds your getting the 2 points your pinching on top of the EV 3% from the others -
1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
Might it be worth setting a minimum price point, e.g. stop backing the 2.5 or less selections?
If that is your base starting point then Yes
1 hour ago, harry_rag said:Should I set the maximum edge as "best" price +10%? There are examples where my target price is looking for an edge greater than 10%. IF matched, such selections would have an ROI of 17% compared to "only" 11% with a 10% edge. So I'm thinking I'll get matched more if I'm less ambitious in terms of the edge I'm looking for on the exchange but still be taking bets that have a decent AE!
Where is this mythical 10% coming from, are you saying 9% or 8% would not be good enough or 11% would be too much?
An 'edge'/'value' can only exists after the event/events have occurred , you can not manufacture it by attaching some numerical significance to it, Its like gravity everyone knows its there but no one can explain how it works or manufacture it.
I have my bot set @ estimated price >1% to<30% anywhere between the 2
Why 1% thats because my estimated price is what Im willing to look to invest in and anything above that should create profit over time
Why 30% top , Its because from past calculations my algo has deduced that profitability reduces significantly when above this mark. ( on my personal selection/pricing methods)
ie book prices are rarely that far out of sync with reality or its just variance (sh*t happens)All I know is that at this moment in time its running @ 16% yield with a numerical edge of 18%
I cannot say which had the most edge or whether they were down to variance or even from which bets the edge derived, all I can do is group them together to give it a number. -
1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
It poses the question, if one wanted to keep it simple, might the best approach be just to try and back all players with a best price >2.5 with a 10% edge added!
If >2.75 is beating the market then where/what are you going to add this 10% extra edge too.
If 2.75 top price has your added 10% then its 3.03 (2/1) , you cant get from a market whats not there
This is the problem with frequentist thinking , by trying to force another 10% onto 2.75 (36%) more money will be made , it will not .The better option would be to take your above example and run it through all the bookmakers you use and find the Book with the worst return and use this as your metric, then if you are still getting a positive return @ 2.5> then you know another book will be giving a better price and therin lies your inbuilt 'value'.
ATB
VT
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1 hour ago, harry_rag said:
So it pays no regard to the odds of the winners and the jockey could even show a negative return to level stakes but have a positive AE (and vice versa).
No a positive return should at least break even and visa versa
Its the concept of value "win more than the %age chance and you make a profit"1 hour ago, harry_rag said:Without the rounding I get your example’s AE as 1.39.
If you find a single winner that wins 1.39 of a race I'll pay you myself ? its binomial they either win or lose
1 hour ago, harry_rag said:The rounding seems to dilute the accuracy, flattering those who are rounded up and understating those who are rounded down.
Wrong way round
Rounding down to 3 would give 5/3 = 1.66-1 = gives 66% above par
Rounding up to 4 would give as above 5/4 =1.25-1= only 25% above parIF Jock x only won any 3
Rounding down to 3 would give 3/3 = 1-1 = 0 = par
Rounding up to 4 would give as above 3/4 =0.75-1= -25% below par1 hour ago, harry_rag said:Do you consider this a particularly valuable metric or just a minor part of the toolkit?
Im not averse to Frequentist probability ( because its happened x number of times in a sample it will carry on at that rate till hell freezes over, making x the chance of it repeating ad infinitum), it is handy and good enough for solving little puzzles like above.
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8 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
I don't think using favourites will really add anything. There is a very wide range of odds for favourites. you cannot compare a 2/1 favourite to a 4/1 favourite.
Yes you can just use the inverse of the odds
Its the same whether they're Favs or Rags -
3 hours ago, harry_rag said:
Just to check my understanding of AE (had to google it but it seems to be what I was more familiar with as "EV").
So if female jockeys have an AE of 0.95 does that mean you'd get 95p back for every £1 you staked on a horse ridden by a female jockey?
And if male jockeys have a positive AE does that mean you'd make money blindly backing every horse with a male rider?
I'd have expected horses ridden by women to show a worse return than those ridden by men (most of the rides on the better horses will no doubt go to men and most of the top 20 jockeys are men) and I just wondered how big the gap was. The notion of backing every horse ridden by men and making a profit seems a bit bizarre.
It may be that I have an incorrect understanding of AE or that there are different ways of calculating it!
Just sum the inverse of the Horses odds (rounded to nearest whole number ,you cant have .x of a win)
Then divide the total into his actual wins, thats your AE in a nutshell.
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38 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Tbh ...its really easy ....I've listed the courses and adjustment on 1 a4 paper ....the class rating on another and all I have to do then is,read across both pages
Whats paper
- Budgie 65, MCLARKE, richard-westwood and 1 other
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Why not rate the courses by grade
You then only have 4 standards to fit to your algo,
...'KISS'... (KEEP-IT-SMALL & SIMPLE ) while building , you can always expand on it later.Grade 1
Aintree
Ascot
Ayr
Cheltenham
Doncaster
Haydock
Kempton
Newbury
Newcastle
Newmarket
SandownGrade 2
Chepstow
Fontwell
Lingfield – Turf
Newton Abbot
Wetherby
Salisbury
ThirskGrade 3
Folkestone
Huntingdon
Leicester
Market Rasen
Nottingham
Plumpton
Stratford
Uttoxeter
Warwick
Wincanton
Windsor
WorcesterGrade 4
Bangor
Carlisle
Cartmel
Exeter
Fakenham
Hereford
Hexham
Kelso
Ludlow
Perth
Sedgefield
Southwell
Taunton
- MCLARKE, Budgie 65 and alexcaruso808
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2 hours ago, Zilzalian said:
Just looking at yesterdays results
Beve 2 favs won both odds on 5 favs lost
Carl 1 fav won Odds on 6 favs lost
Hayd 1 JF won 6 favs lost
Leic 1 fav won odds on 6 favs lost
Nott no favs won 6 favs lost
Sand no favs won 7 favs lost
I fail to see the relevance of the above.
39 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:What's your take on that ?...just one of those annoying blips considering a fav strike rate shoukd be 25-30%?...or bookies setting up false favs ??
Taking in all JT favs as favs (hence 9 favs @ Haydock and only 7 races)
Fav to runner ratio still shows that Favs outperformed their chances of winning by +2.67%
While non favs under performed by -0.36% -
7 minutes ago, Yalwen said:
So, this is what we call progress, I suppose.
I used to put up the RO78 (rule of 78) system selections on the now defunct Gummy Racing board
Then when I first started up my blog I used to put up them up there too until I moved on to better things.
I suppose we have to move with the times or else become a dinosaur, & we all know what happened to them. -
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On 6/22/2022 at 10:23 AM, harry_rag said:
Probably not, simply because the previous post on the thread was over 16 years ago! I’ve no idea if the system is still in operation (or what it is/was) but I think you’d be better off doing some Googling.
Michael Wray was from NZ, he used to upload his spreadsheets and ratings weekly.
Back in the early 2000's if anyone remembers the Football Association spat the dummy out and tried to sue anyone putting up the up and coming fixtures for the Leagues as they said they were their "intellectual property".
Michael got a letter from the Football Association marketing board threatening to sue for non payment of the use of their so called "intellectual property" so rather than risk getting sued he stopped posting them up.Ps the Rating system was ok , (back top rated if so many pts clear blah,blah,blah) but nothing you couldnt knock up yourself in an hour or so using football data spreadsheets and a few stats.
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I personally use GRUSS Software as my bot,
You set your betting parameters via EXCEL only (you CANT use Microsoft 365 (Excel online) or any of the free spreadsheets (ie open office , google sheets or numpy))
You can do anything you want from your above post, all depends on your EXCEL/VBA skills as all your doing is setting a BACK / LAY trigger for the bot to follow,
you can set it to back unmatched bets @ SP in play or just back @ sp
( why anyone would want to back at SP when you have no Idea what the price is is beyond me, unless 'between' parameters are set like >X & <Y which can also be done)You can manually trade using grid or ladder interface if that's your thing.
You can dutch bet , green out etc etcYes you do have to have your computer on all the time its running (I have mine on its own dedicated mini pc similar to this, fixed to the back of my telly and hardwired into router, it runs 24/7 and it's linked to all my other bits and bobs , main puter , phone ,Kindle ,Ipad etc so can check it/remote operate it whenever I need )
As I think your paying per link to Betfair (£6pm), I surmise you'd need 2 separate links for 2 accounts
GRUSS do a free bot for Betdaq with some restrictions on info available like no OR etc, but you can use it to have a play around learn how to set triggers etc.There's a forum as well so you can get some ideas on there .
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1 Winner ~ 3 2nds ~ 1 3rd & 1 nr so close again but no cigar
31/05/2022 19:49:00 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit cum_ep sp_Profit cum_sp 0 14.20 Brighton Mr Fayez 9-2 3.68 4.33 l 4.33 -1.00 -1.00 -1.0 -1.0 1 15.10 Newbury Merlin's Beard 9-11 5.31 6.50 l 9.00 -1.00 -2.00 -1.0 -2.0 2 15.50 Brighton Wisper 9-2 3.94 2.25 w 2.20 1.25 -0.75 1.2 -0.8 3 16.40 Newbury Rajmeister 9-9 3.81 9.00 l 7.00 -1.00 -1.75 -1.0 -1.8 4 16.55 Brighton Street Parade 9-9 6.10 5.50 l 3.50 -1.00 -2.75 -1.0 -2.8 5 17.29 Yarmouth Hi Ho Silver 9-1 6.04 15.00 nr 0.00 0.00 -2.75 0.0 -2.8 6 18.22 Thirsk Redzone 9-9 4.35 12.00 l 13.00 -1.00 -3.75 -1.0 -3.8 Update date selections winners return cum_ret yield cum_yield st_rate cum_st_rate 0 2022-05-18 9 3 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 0.33 0.33 1 2022-05-19 14 3 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 0.21 0.26 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10 0.18 0.24 3 2022-05-21 12 0 -12.00 -8.75 -1.00 -0.19 0.00 0.17 4 2022-05-22 5 3 7.50 -1.25 1.50 -0.02 0.60 0.22 5 2022-05-23 6 1 -2.00 -3.25 -0.33 -0.06 0.17 0.21 6 2022-05-24 8 3 6.50 3.25 0.81 0.05 0.38 0.23 7 2022-05-25 9 1 -6.75 -3.50 -0.75 -0.05 0.11 0.22 8 2022-05-26 11 2 -1.25 -4.75 -0.11 -0.06 0.18 0.21 9 2022-05-27 6 3 3.70 -1.05 0.62 -0.01 0.50 0.23 10 2022-05-28 10 2 6.00 4.95 0.60 0.05 0.20 0.23 11 2022-05-30 7 0 -7.00 -2.05 -1.00 -0.02 0.00 0.21 12 2022-05-31 6 1 -3.75 -5.80 -0.62 -0.05 0.17 0.21 -
7 Selections today 3 cl4 ~ 1 cl5 ~ 3 cl6
Lets see how these go31/05/2022 08:17:37 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 0 14.20 Brighton Mr Fayez 9-2 3.68 4.33 1 15.10 Newbury Merlin's Beard 9-11 5.31 6.50 2 15.50 Brighton Wisper 9-2 3.94 2.25 3 16.40 Newbury Rajmeister 9-9 3.81 9.00 4 16.55 Brighton Street Parade 9-9 6.10 5.50 5 17.29 Yarmouth Hi Ho Silver 9-1 6.04 15.00 6 18.22 Thirsk Redzone 9-9 4.35 12.00
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39 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:
Whether it is logical or not the selections in the naps table make a profit Wed to Sat and a big loss Sun to Tue.
So your saying its because of the days ?
I got wet when I went out on a Monday once , nothing to do with the rain it must have been because it was Monday,
I'll stay in well Friday next time then I wont need a brolly
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Three losers two 2nds & 2 3rds so a bad day @ Blackrock with a 7pts loss ?
30/05/2022 19:42:30 Time Meeting Horse Ex_Odds B365 Result sp ep_Profit cum_ep sp_Profit cum_sp 0 13.15 Lingfield Cu Chulainn 9-10 6.31 7.50 l 11.00 -1 -1 -1 -1 1 17.15 Redcar So Grateful 10-11 6.35 4.50 l 4.50 -1 -2 -1 -2 2 18.00 Ayr Red Force One 9-6 2.46 3.00 l 2.20 -1 -3 -1 -3 3 18.10 Windsor Winnetka 8-11 3.61 17.00 l 15.00 -1 -4 -1 -4 4 18.30 Ayr Cathayensis 10-2 24.50 2.25 l 2.38 -1 -5 -1 -5 5 18.40 Windsor Just That Lord 8-9 4.59 10.00 l 8.50 -1 -6 -1 -6 6 19.10 Windsor Prejudice 8-11 4.46 11.00 l 7.50 -1 -7 -1 -7 Update date selections winners return cum_ret yield cum_yield st_rate cum_st_rate 0 2022-05-18 9 3 3.50 3.50 0.39 0.39 0.33 0.33 1 2022-05-19 14 3 -1.00 2.50 -0.07 0.11 0.21 0.26 2 2022-05-20 11 2 0.75 3.25 0.07 0.10 0.18 0.24 3 2022-05-21 12 0 -12.00 -8.75 -1.00 -0.19 0.00 0.17 4 2022-05-22 5 3 7.50 -1.25 1.50 -0.02 0.60 0.22 5 2022-05-23 6 1 -2.00 -3.25 -0.33 -0.06 0.17 0.21 6 2022-05-24 8 3 6.50 3.25 0.81 0.05 0.38 0.23 7 2022-05-25 9 1 -6.75 -3.50 -0.75 -0.05 0.11 0.22 8 2022-05-26 11 2 -1.25 -4.75 -0.11 -0.06 0.18 0.21 9 2022-05-27 6 3 3.70 -1.05 0.62 -0.01 0.50 0.23 10 2022-05-28 10 2 6.00 4.95 0.60 0.05 0.20 0.23 11 2022-05-30 7 0 -7.00 -2.05 -1.00 -0.02 0.00 0.21 -
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2 hours ago, MCLARKE said:
You are probably right although my analysis doesn't include details of the class of the race. I may look at including this in the future.
You have to ask yourself if all those races were run on a Wed to Sat rather than Sun to Tues with the same horses/jocks/trainers they'd make a profit
there's absolutely no logic in that at all.
ODDS ON SELECTIONS TRIAL
in At The Races - Racing Forum
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It is