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Valiant Thor

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Posts posted by Valiant Thor

  1. 9 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Interesting stats in this race for the last 7 years includes :-

    There have been 60 runners that have carried more than 11 stone and only 1 has won. This reduces the field from 17 to 8.

    There have been 48 runners whose last run was over 35 days ago and only 2 won. This reduces the field to 5.

    There have been 75 runners that have not won over the course or distance before and only 3 have won. 

    This leaves just the 1 horse, COOLE CODY, currently available at 20/1.

    I came to a similar conclusion but using paired comparisons linear algebra (remember simultaneous equations at school) rather than collinearity from 7 races which I'm not a lover of to say the least.
    If you can find it out there in the ether somewhere, read the 37 Circles of Hell this will change your mind about the way you look at trend analysis.;)

  2. 4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

     4 races worth rating @ Donny
    image.png.2716fd699e81b6dc8408ac3324a1be59.png

    12.55
    Revich 7pts ew @ 17
    Punchbowl Flyer 9.95pts ew @ 12
    1.30
    No bets
    2.05
    Chamade 12pts ew @ 10
    Moll Davis 9.95pts ew @ 12
    3.15
    Torcello 7pts ew @ 17
    Strawberry Rock 4.10pts @ 29
    100pts staked @ Skybet no BOG
    1 winner profit
    3 placed money back ish (depending which 3 place )

    image.png.bde1664d11d1e1c3e85aaf752e895711.png
    Staked 100pts
    Returned 157.36pts (11.24pts @ 10/1 as some odds had changed between posting and placing bets)  :ok
      image.png.b9ff56abcf3700c2f893c546ffb5bb7f.png

  3. WEEK 8 UPDATE (The less said the better :$ )
    image.thumb.png.171d9b9f8e667b4f48a74b0ff56fb92d.png
    Only 5 winners from the total selections 35.7% :$
    image.png.b9bbdc78bff71075d106ad6373cb23db.png
    The NAP , NB & a selected bet all missed the spread :@
    image.png.3a0786cbc5fe214652fa64a7cdb95507.png
    Selected bets & Naps in the red
    While all selections & NB cling on to a profit .
     

  4. 5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
    Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
    At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
    Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
    But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
    Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
    100pts staked Skybet
    image.png.92427e757826413885a63b974375a87d.png

    image.png.0c3355b0c7903f87a3ddd05b486690b3.png
    Out of all the 5 runners Lord Sparky was the one I most expected to at least place :\
    Bad day at the office with a loss of 30.74pts :$

  5. I have 5 horses today which according to my ratings have a slight edge.
    Rather than backing them ew Im dutching the win and ew for equal profit win or place.
    At the win prices 1 win is expected & at the ew prices 2 places are expected
    Any win or place returns approx 34.60pts so a single win returns 69.20pts and likewise 2 places that is the expected minimum return (loss of 30%) at the prices.
    But Im expecting at least a minimum of 3 or possibly 4 will creep into the frame due to a couple of 4 place races (profit of 3.8% or 38.4% respectively) those are my expected targets.
    Then again it could all go belly up but no risk no reward.
    100pts staked Skybet
    image.png.92427e757826413885a63b974375a87d.png

  6. :D

    20 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    image.png.a9abb3435109865c4ea2721219a5f32b.png  image.png.1458d1d31023c349648e2985989655b5.png

    IMO Sebastopol is a shot to nothing @ 5.5 4 places with Sky bet & the same for Valtor 5 places skybet
    So a 6pt EW Double for the above 2 with Sky
    4 x 1pt ew cross doubles Teqany & Byron Flyer with Regal Encore & Mister Malarkey with Skybet as well
    20pts staked
    Update
    Sabastapol & Tequany NR's now :eyes

    image.png.8afc0163841f602159df05de2218d297.png  image.png.41b9ea09f291d3ec7a9e340090f70b52.png
    Byron Flyer just missed out on the 4 places paid as did Mister Malarkey on the 5 places paid :eyes
    Valtor seemed to make a bad landing 3 or 4 out dropping away quickly after that :(
    With Teqany a NR  I got an ew single on Regal Encore which virtually returns my stake on the races so no harm done .:ok
     

  7. 12 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    255 newm 

    Duke of kondicote  277

    Mutamaded 274 

    Speed company  272 

    Close race .....Duke of kondicote has some strong form coming into this but mutamaded ran a stinker on all weather last time ...a return to turf should very much suit and looks way overpriced at 33/1 ...top 2 for me 

    Duke of kondicote 10pt win 3/1 bet365 

    Mutamaded 5pt ew 33/1 betvic 

    We compare ratings .. so heres mine for you (its a no bet race for me)
    image.png.92d5da3c4a66c646e75fc8a2bda571c2.png
    Using RPR TR I get
    image.png.1d3caa86e41f560b181d59245b79d655.png
    Hope D o C doesn't get mugged like your last couple :hope
    G'Luck :ok
    D o C a NR now :eyes

  8. 7 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important :eyes
    Here are all today's qualifiers
    image.png.8abf3c7a28b12d83bbe1c5f98dd4b946.png
    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

    Results
    image.png.c3feb1b4554e3fcaaca30ab1ccfe2aa9.png
    image.png.4047bc3ffd1b52855d9c9dac6ccdba22.png
    Though a small sample it seems RPR's is a reasonable medium @ pointing you in the direction of winners though the ROI is something to be desired backing blindly.
    Restricting bets to the ones that have an expected Edge return a better ROI on both Non BOG & BOG early prices in both cases SP is a non starter, which reinforces the idea of making your own tissue .
    My own database doesn't have RPR saved so I cant back test a large enough amount of data to say whether the above is the norm or just noise, but if you dont make your own ratings it could be worthwhile investigating RPR's a bit deeper .
    I might even fire a bot up on Betdaq and let in run on small stakes for a month & see how it fares (at least it will give me something to do in lockdown :lol )
    ATB
    VT :ok

  9. Was having a discussion last night with a mate of mine and he asked me how good RP top rated were and would they be a profitable betting medium backing the top rated only?.
    As Ive never used them I wouldn't know but I would imagine like most Top rated / betting Favs a SR of around 30-35% should be achievable,whether a profit can be gleaned from this is a different story, any man and his dog can hit 30+% by backing favs or Top rated blindly but its a way to the poor house.
    Ive priced up the Top Rated horses from the races with full RP ratings pre off and noted the price available , so thought Id put them up as someone might have an interest .
    Lets see how it goes , will put the evening ones up later as the missus has kindly found me some jobs to do which apparently are more important :eyes
    Here are all today's qualifiers
    image.png.8abf3c7a28b12d83bbe1c5f98dd4b946.png
    Even though this is a small sample size certain parameters should still be there or thereabout to add some credibility to the RP ratings accuracy
    Therefore....
    At my expected odds (All runners)  4 or 5 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At the early book odds (All runners) 5 or 6 winners would be an acceptable mark
    At my expected odds with an expected edge (14 runners) 2 or 3 winners would be an acceptable mark

  10. 9 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    445 Kemp 

    Lynn's boy  233 

    Top time  232 

    Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 

    Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 

    2pt win double with above race 

    mugged again :(
    Illes Memories missed the break so there was no danger there, winner wasnt even on he radar :eyes

  11. 3 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    image.png.072e010836c8956330aafb3cfc715a9d.png
    Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch :eyes
    6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
    Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
    But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.

    6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
    That didn't go according to plan :$
    5pts ew Lady Pendragon 8/1 in the last @ Kemp :hope

  12. image.png.072e010836c8956330aafb3cfc715a9d.png
    Not much of interest at all for me today , though these are about the best of a bad bunch :eyes
    6 x 1pt win doubles 2.20 & 2.50 Nott
    Out of the 4 from Kempton  Lady Pendragon  ew is the best option in the lucky last
    But depending how the Nottingham bets fair I might go on BF and dutch the 4 from Kempton place only , 1 out of the 4 placed would give a profit.

  13. 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

    150 nott

    Tricky little nursery .....only 6 runners but faustus ran really well on soft last time and looks really  fairly treated for his hcap debut based on that ....I'll play ew 

    Faustus 10pt ew 17/2 willh 2 places 

     

    1 hour ago, richard-westwood said:

    445 Kemp 

    Lynn's boy  233 

    Top time  232 

    Toptime is fav and beat Lynn's boy 2 runs back ....but Lynn's boy seemed to improve on the soft turf last time and if he can translate that back to all weather today then he could give this fav plenty to think about 

    Lynn's boy 10pt win 9/2 betvic 

    2pt win double with above race 

    image.png.6691b25fca45083bbb3e3fca1774201a.png
    Picked a couple of strange races there Richard
    If I was playing the Nott'm race I  would be dutching my 2 selections for the win
    Bit of a difference of opinion in the Kemp race Id be taking Illies Memories ew @ 6/1
    ATM No bet for me in either race .
    G'Luck with your selections :hope

  14. 4 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    Might as well stick these up as Ive rated them (have you rated any of these races Richard?)
    image.png.85664df120e679fbe5a7bfd6890179a6.png
    As Ive made the effort to rate them seems a waste not to back them
    14 * 1pt ew doubles @ sp
    28pts staked on the yellow highlighted extra place races
     

    image.png.0f79e23f7c3d68259733867428262ff5.png

    Thanks to Cross Fire a NR  28pts staked 30.72pts returned, (better than losing I suppose)
    Highjacked , Galileo Silver , Let Me Be all placed Sea of Mystery still to run

  15. 13 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:

    Bummer ...nicely rated though ...he hadn't run for 18 monthes so couldn't account for that 

    If GS hadn't have been a green rated (downgraded to orange now :lol) I would have backed Spectator :\ but thats life , swings and roundabouts.
    Be nice if a few of my others pop in to make up for it :lol

  16. 7 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

    220 chep 

    Galileo silver  288

    Arkyn 285 

    Galileo silver looked strong in defeat last time and no shame in that run ....has a big fitness edge now and richard johnson takes the ride .......arkyn is an outsider but has run well on soft in the past and has run some good races over 2m4/5 so if he can last home has ew chances 

    Galileo silver 6pt win 3/1 bet365

    Arkyn 3pt ew 16/1 bet365

     

    Unlucky there Richard :(
    As soon as Spectator pulled alongside I thought game over fo GS

    5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    This is one of the races Ive done as well ;)
    image.png.598e4935e6d1b3400df545b2623452fa.png
    I have GS as a top rated green (shoo in ) but the negative edge puts me off in a 15 runner field ( I dont make money backing my neg edge bets to win only,green or not).
    I would have been tempted with a 20:80 bet on this 20%win 80% place around the 5/1 mark.
    Spectator & KK Lexion are both above Arkyn but its was so long ago since they ran they were in a race with dinosaurs, so thats a bit off putting and would throw Arkyn into the mix for a place.
    GS should have you @ the payout window barring any mishaps :hope
    but @ 3/1-7/2 not my cup of tea.
    G'Luck VT :ok

    image.png.5bc0c8d21e933b69dda39dc9747b55f7.png
    Spectator wins @ 22/1

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