Jump to content
** March Poker League Result : =1st Bridscott, =1st Like2Fish, 3rd avongirl **
Download the PL Forum App!
** Cheltenham Tipster Competition Result : 1st Old codger, 2nd sirspread, 3rd Bathtime For Rupert **

Valiant Thor

Regular Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    4,023

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    15

 Content Type 

Posts posted by Valiant Thor

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, MCLARKE said:

    I have analysed my bets over the last few years and on Sundays I have lost money. This is probably related to the lower quantity of racing on Sunday.

    I may start to have a break on Sundays or restrict myself to just one bet.

    All my betting selections are automated to eradicate any emotion in the choice , so whether its Mon,Wed or Sun makes no difference (boring maybe but its how i like to do things, easier to quantify)
     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Wildgarden said:

    class 1 2-7 runners shows 111% but hardly any bets each year

    The amount of bets is irrelevant its about return on investment,
    People are putting £1500 in ISA's for 12 month to make £15 pa if they're lucky
    When inflation is around 3% theyre basically investing to lose money and theyre told its a good deal because its tax free, so how does that work (and thats like one bet in relative terms).
    People who are serious about "betting" should look at it more of a business IMO, anyone can sell stuff for less than its worth and then go bust, others seek the value and make money the same as anything be it stocks , business , betting they're all just a numbers game.

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    format

    22 hours ago, MCLARKE said:

    Perhaps they are not overbet purely because of the fact a lot of punters will not back them because of the misconception that odds on represents poor value. I hope that this misconception continues as it means the rest of us can make money,

    The same conclusion was derived by an actuary E.L Figgis in an audit for the Royal Commission on Gambling back in 1950,1965,1973 and published in their report in 1978

    Quote

    Figgis’ evidence for 1950, 1965 and 1973,
    using starting prices, demonstrates that for the shortest odds examined – i.e.
    0.4 to 1 (5 to 2 on) or less – the average pre-tax return varied from 97.2 per
    cent in 1950 to 108.1 per cent in 1965 and to 108.5 per cent in 1973.
    Calculations of the returns in 1975 and 1976, performed for the Royal
    Commission on Gambling, found rates of return of 112.1 per cent and 107
    per cent, respectively.

    Similar findings were published by Henery in 1985 covering uk flat racing
    Also in the Ladbrokes Pocket Companion (1990) in a trial from 1985~1989 placing bets of odds under 1/2 or shorter yielded a positive return of 6.5%

    From at least 1950 to present day this has and does still exist, so It amazes me you still read the crap "you cant make money backing favs" bandied around by punters who cant see the wood for the trees or think they know better than the market.
    Like you say "it means the rest of us can make money" and long may it continue. ;)

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    Update

    5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    Only 2 to chose from today and unfortunately both in same race. :\
    Some don't like backing 2 in a race but I look at it as purely a math algorithm and a 34.6% roi IF SUCCESSFUL seems fine by me.
    B365 prices correct @ time of posting
    image.png.eaecb99b818431c060aac43e5c691533.png
    12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY
    7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL

    12.82pts...SHE'S A NOVELTY...LOST...2nd
    7.18pts.....GINGER DU VAL......WON...26.92
    STAKED...20...RETURNED...26.92...PROFIT...6.92
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +93.51
     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor

    11 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +85.22
    image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
    B365
    image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
    WIN ONLY 5.75pts
    PLACE ONLY 14.25
    place needed for small profit

    NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
    I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

    WIN ONLY 5.75pts...LOST...2nd
    PLACE ONLY 14.25...WON...21.37
    STAKED...20...RETURNED...21.37...PROFIT...1.37
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +86.59

     

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +85.22
    image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
    B365
    image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
    WIN ONLY 5.75pts
    PLACE ONLY 14.25
    place needed for small profit

    NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
    I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

    Now 11/10 :loon
    Its a runaway train

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor
    Add NB

    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +85.22
    image.png.b2970b1dde15900b510ff7ff49d0ef1a.png 
    B365
    image.png.12e9a9688c02cc5d604e9cbf71740c5b.png
    WIN ONLY 5.75pts
    PLACE ONLY 14.25
    place needed for small profit

    NB..3.75 was freely available by several books when first posted unfortunately all books are now around 3.5 or less, which I have no control over.
    I calculated sp to be around 3.00 to 3.25 so still some meat left in the sandwich so to speak (if it wins).

    £20 Daily Challenge - All Welcome

    in At The Races - Racing Forum

    Posted

    5 hours ago, Valiant Thor said:

    The two  +10% EV I had for today are now both NR's :\ so brought in a couple of reserves with a lower +expected value ( I dont normally back them unless I've estimated them to be in my goldilocks zone of  +10% > +25% ev )  but these are still IMO just over +5% ev mark, so see how they go.
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +75.22
    image.png.2e09fb20f84bf68476272f79c6c101e1.png
    10pts...FAUVETTE
    10pts...ZIGGY
     

    10pts...FAUVETTE...WON...30
    10pts...ZIGGY..........LOST....2nd
    STAKED...20...RETURNED...30...PROFIT...10
    AUG  +62.14
    SEPT +85.22

    Anytime Goalscorer Experiment

    in Betting Systems & Strategy

    Posted · Edited by Valiant Thor

    15 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    I think, with a big enough sample, I can get a better handle on using the spreads to frame a "true" fixed odds price.

     

    12 hours ago, harry_rag said:

    Thanks. 10,000 bets would be a stretch (I'm not as young as I was)

    Run a monte carlo simulation in excel,

    You could do an estimated 10000 random sims for a year over a random 10 year span (100000 trials) on a decent computer in about 10~20 mins

×
×
  • Create New...