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Valiant Thor

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Posts posted by Valiant Thor

  1. 1 minute ago, Tedthewolf said:

    Very unlucky Skybet where paying 8 place  it may be  worth watching out for which  bookie pays the most place in these big  field handicaps👍

    Sly bet dont like me, neither do PP or else Id have used them, so I have to use whats available .If it had been a decent bet I'd use my lads account but for the sake of £10ew
    not worth bothering.

     

  2. Top Rated (with expected positive edge) in extra place races. (BETFRED)
    2.55 Ham Josiebond   7/1
    4.30 Ham Talk Now.....jt TR  10/1
    4.30 Ham Rosemay....jt TR   13/2
    7.00 Wolv Point In Time 11/1
    8.00 Wolv Plansina  11/1
    possible ew doubles ????????

  3. The 3 flat green tops (extra place races) got some reasonable priced placed horses but the twig hoppers failed to deliver which is no surprise really and just reinforces why I dont take much interest in twig hoppers :\
    In hindsight, taking the rated flat runners with a positive edge in an ew Trixie would have produced a nice payout (mainly thanks to the 50/1 shot :lol) but overall Im pleased with the outcome,it will be interesting to see how the parameters get adjusted now its run some live data.
    image.png.086e34e0aa810f6b7864b369330bdd04.png
    Will put the other results up if Hamilton eventually finishes before it gets dark :eek
    image.png.f8028ebc1542610ef792f9b63f430b6f.png

    Of the other Hcaps only 3 had a positive edge 1 placed @ 20/1 (extra place with skybet) the other 2 lost @ 7/1 & 15/2
    4 winners but non had a positive edge.
    Off to watch my NFL bets make some money :hope :lol

  4. 3 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    I always respect your opinion, however, I do feel that you could be missing out with the in-running angle of doubling or trebling of requested odds.  As you rightly say, anything can happen in racing after the off but quite often favourites drift out during the race only to come back in when they they get back into the race. Sure, a horse can fall at the first fence or rise up in the stalls at the off on the flat and blow its chances but on balance I feel that it could well be a value angle to exploit.  

    I hope that you are keeping well and have noticed that you have had a good run of recent winners that should be appluaded

     

    Laoise 50/1 second in the 2.05 Ham (green top) looks promising ;)

  5. 4 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

    Very Interesting.  I am rapidly coming to the conclusion that the big boys have sorted out all the in-runnig lay odds in their favour; I've even seen a horse being beaten by a head and not matched for a lay bet at 2.04.  I do realise that you abhor "lay" betting BUT where I believe that punters may well score is to set up an in-running WIN bet on a horse at 2 to 3 times its available price at the off.  For example, Nahaarr in the 3.40 Ayr Gold cup yesterday was matched at 90/1 in running according to the commentator on ITV yesterday.  The only reason I mention this is because it seems to me that quite a number of your 100 rated exp odds are greater than the odds available now.  It occurs to me that if you backed them on Betfair in running and pressed the "keep" button that they may well be matched during the race and could show a decent profit in the long run.  Just a thought.  

    These are not live on BF yet ,this is a trial.
    The rating predictions should get more accurate the more it 'learns' ,therefore making the exp odds more accurate.
    All my bets cancel @ the off as anything can happen in running and if your perceived odds are wrong scalpers will have a field day and I don't intend to feed the leeches

  6. Been spending most of my time on Kaggle lately and and Ive been quite impressed with the ease of use and results from XGBoost which seems to be the go to ML tool atm so Ive had a little play fired in some parameters and  given it a whirl on the 8+ runner hcaps to see how it fares today 🙏.
    Ive incorporated an expected price algo in to give some idea of an expected edge if any against the horses price, +/- 10% of book price would be a reasonable expectation of the horses ratings accuracy at this early stage ( ie if Exp Odds is say 5.00 but price is 21 (320% edge) it does not mean massive value as the difference in odds is more likely due to missing data rather than a cock up by the bookies 😉)
    Anyway Ive stuck them up for the maiden trial and see how they fare (Green tops are the extra place races which are the ones I'm mainly interested in for a possible future betting medium)
    All top rated are normalised to return max of 100 for ease of calculation with my pricing algo (Could just as easy be set to anything but 100 suits as its the Datum used for all of my other stuff ).
    image.png.322aba49cf93c6d8fde23f12a7df4271.png

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