four-leaf

Alexandrova @1.66 bf
Watched Kalinskaja playing in Osaka and she looked really out of shape, then she lost in Guangzhou in the 1R to Hruncakova… Alexandrova not the most reliable player, but the H2H (4-0 Alexandrova in straight sets) and the recent form of Kalinskaja make me lean toward Alexandrova here…

Misaki Doi (+5.5) to beat Petra Martic at 1.83 with Bet365
I don't exactly expect Doi to have enough to defeat Martic, but she's already played in the conditions and she will have some support at least, while Martic has no match practice since the US Open. Their previous meetings are rather old, but Doi covered this line in both losses, so at least they don't speak against this bet.

Camila Giorgi to beat Mayar Sherif at 1.57 with Unibet
This looks like a great opportunity for Giorgi to finally get a win on the board, Sherif should lack the skills to do well in the Guadalajara conditions, where it's really hard to control the ball. Giorgi needs to control one or two balls to win a rally, while Sherif needs a fair bit more than that.  
Harriet Dart to beat Jule Niemeier at 1.93 with Unibet
Niemeier looked like a big talent at one point, and she might still come back to do something, but she's been very up and down so far this season, mostly down. She tends to snowball performances well, but she's without much practice here, while Dart got a decent match against Savinykh in during the qualifiers, which should serve her well. I'd also say that she's the fitter of the two, and the Guangzhou conditions look like one of those in which fitness can play a role (in the qualifiers, both Volodko and Golubic looked tired after less than 2 hours).

San Diego - Kenin to beat Navarro - 1.96 on Betfair
Even strapped up a determined Kenin should beat Navarro. Navarro has been on fire this week but is still prone to mental lapses and got bageled last match by Sakkari who is slumping big time. She'll need to be right on her game and Kenin to struggle with her injury more than she has this week to pull off the win here. 
Navarro lost her only WTA semi final without a fight and she was close in odds to this. I can see Kenin taking this.
 

Just one of those games where it ends up looking like I thought the question was "name the only player who ISN'T going to score a goal"!
Good day yesterday, very much less so today, all part of the normal variance that can still drive you mad as a punter.

As the match is going on now and it's 0-3 for us (Sweden) it might happen to be a case of being satisfied and Forsberg get's substituted in second half. To bad if it happens otherwise I'd say it's certainly a wise bet beforehand.

Bellingham at 4/1 to score in a few places doesn't look bad. Would have seemed decent last season and he hasn't exactly gone backwards at Madrid.

Not much screaming "back me" in tonight's games. Taken McTominay at 4/1 with Uni and small double at 16/1 on him and McGinn. Calhanoglu for Turkey at 3.8 a system bet.

17/5 Lisakovich for Belarus looks decent and is a "B" system bet for me. Must be getting on given how long ago "Lucky Number" was in the charts but I'll take a chance regardless.

29/10 Forsberg for Sweden also; seems to score more like a striker than a midfielder when playing for the National team.

Last one for now; matched on Saka at 3.85. One of those players you want to back if he's not "too short" and usually end up regretting not backing even when they do look a bit short.

Keys - Sabalenka was such a rollercoaster, lol. Haven't slept just to watch Sabalenka lose the first set 6:0 and win with 2 tiebreaks after that, hehe. Sabalenka had like 15 unforced errors in the first set and thought the match is over.

Alcaraz -5.5 Games vs Medvedev @ 1.91 Bet365 (NAP)
I believe this is a terrible match up for Medvedev. He managed to get past Rublev in straight sets despite being a break down in all 3 sets. He struggled regularly on serve being broken 5 times. Both matches this season have been won comfortably by Alcaraz. The conditions in New York may suit Medvedev a little more compared to Indian Wells & Wimbledon but if he sticks with the same tactics he used in those matches there will only be one winner.
On both occasions Medvedev opted to sit way, way back on serves. This allowed Alcaraz to continually either come to the net or use drop shots & Medvedev had no answer. I expected to see something different from him when the two met at Wimbledon but if anything he stood even further back! He may well change things up but is he able or want to? Some players have certain styles of play & either can’t or choose not to deviate from this. For me Medvedev simply has to change his style in this. He just can’t beat Alcaraz with those tactics bar a complete off day from Carlos.
Another big issue is the Medvedev 2nd serve. A great indicator for me as to how well someone is playing is how well the 2nd serve is performing. Not only has he been serving an awful lot of double faults his winning % on 2nd serves has been poor. He won just 29% against Rublev & 41% in both of his matches before that. If you compare those stats to Alcaraz who won 57% against Zverev, 60% against Arnaldi & 70% vs Evans. This is further shown by both matches played between them this year. At Wimbledon Medvedev 30% compared to 57% for Alcaraz. Indian Wells was 41% to 58% in Alcaraz’s favour. Medvedev will have to serve incredibly well with a high 1st serve % way above 60% to stand any chance of an upset.
This is the evening match so conditions will not be as hot but still very humid. Medvedev has been complaining about the heat so this will not help his cause. Based on how the 2 matches between these players went this year I simply have to back Alcaraz to reach another US Open final. It would have to either take something very special from Medvedev or a complete off day from Alcaraz, neither of which I see happening.

Daniil Medvedev (-1.5 sets) to beat Andrey Rublev at 1.78 with Unibet
I'm looking forward to this match, and I think that Medvedev will be able to take it relatively cleanly more often than not. Draper started to look tired against Rublev near the end of the third set, while Medvedev had a tougher test against De Minaur and was able to improve his level to come through, and he's certainly been the better player of the two for quite some time now. The H2H is 6-2 in Medvedev's favour, 2-0 in Grand Slams (3-0 and 3-0).

3.70 are terrible odds for this. Just by using the Betfair Exchange, multiplying all odds would lead to a value which is about 9 % higher (and there might be better odds available on specific bookmakers, sometimes). Let me explain... The individual available odds right now (I know that some of the lines might have change a little, but let's ignore this here) are: 1.44 (Tiafoe), 1.54 (Muchova), 1.43 (Medvedev), 1.30 (Sabalenka). For each value, due to the fee for winning bets, we need to apply the simple operation 1 + (odds - 1)* 0.98, leading to 1.431 * 1.529 * 1.421 * 1.294 = 4.025.
I've been doing this for years, being profitable over thousands of bets. Low single-digit percentages are a realistic average (per bet) return on investment, certainly not 10 % or more. Picking individual profitable bets is already hard enough. By betting on accumulators you guys are making sure to basically have no chance of being a winning player, even over medium samplesizes! Better try to pick individual valuebets which often can be found on exchanges (but also look for other bookmakers).  
 

That's a great example of recency bias. The only reason Ostapenko beat Swiatek was because she played a once-in-a-blue-moon match of very low unforced errors - she was always likely to revert to type sooner rather than later and probably sooner with an opponent like Gauff who makes very few unforced errors and keeps the ball in play which makes Ostapenko think she has to go for it to win points.

I'll go with her to win a set and over  on Zverev - Sinner

Jelena Ostapenko (+1.5 sets) to beat Cori Cauff at 1.77 with Unibet
Gauff certainly doesn't look unbeatable to me here, she's had her fair share of struggles, and she wasn't particularly clinical in the match against Wozniacki. Ostapenko managed to beat the American 2-0 in the Australian Open earlier this season, and I'm sure she can trouble her again here, she just has that match practice in her now to do so. Good odds for the set handicap imo.

Ben Mertens (+2.5 frames) to beat Shaun Murphy at evens with Unibet
Here's my contribution for tonight. Belive it or not but Mertens who's 18 already has taken Murphy to the brink of defeat in last years CL and I belive in this Belgian guy. Leclerq didn't win today and so will Ben fail or impress? I think he's gonna impress the shit out of us and Murphy.

I'll probably go with Sabalenka like you, Medvedev and I'm wondering about a third match to add. What do you think about Zheng to win a set or Pegula? 
There are also 2 matches that look good on 1.30 odds in Austria Chall that look like a safety bet. Rodionov and Cobolli. Flavio Cobolli is 30/20 W/L this season playing against Sels who is 3/19 W/L this season. Rodionov should not have problems as well against Ejupovic but don't know how many of you need 1.30 odds.
 
 

These are my picks for today:
Medvedev - De Minaur: > 35,5 Games @ 1.73 | 2/10 👎
Note: What a pitty, that the single sets were so clear (2:6, 6:4, 6:1, 6:2), b/c 3 more games would have done it...
Kombi {Alcaraz (-2,5) - Arnaldi
             Tiafoe - Shelton} @ 1,93 | 2/10
Cirstea - Muchova (-2,5 Games) @ 1,96 | 2/10

Rodionov should be a save pick as part of a combination.
I just picked him myself in a single bet:
Ejupovic - Rodionov (-4,5 Games) @ 2.05 | 1/10 👎
Another interesting Match could be this pick:
Oberleitner - Miedler @ 1,98 | 1/10 👎
And: Sorry if this ist too OT as this thread is about the US Open. I just answered @sterziyskii, because I am from Austria... 😉 

Jelena Ostapenko (+6.5) to beat Iga Swiatek at 1.80 with Bet365
So, Ostapenko has been struggling so far, while Swiatek seems to be as dominant as ever. And yet, +6.5, with Ostapenko leading the H2H record 3-0? And yes, that does include a reasonably recent 2022 win in Dubai, so it's not just about some old matches. Ostapenko has a playing style that can take anyone - even Swiatek - out of the comfort zone, and I think that this line should be covered most of the time.

My plays from the US Open today:
Acca @ 2.11 Pinnacle (NAP)
Alcaraz -1.5 Sets x Medvedev -1.5 Sets x Sabalenka -1.5 Sets x Kasatkina +1.5 Sets
I would be shocked if Alcaraz or Medvedev dropped more than a set and both should really be winning in straights. Sabalenka has looked very good so far and meets a player she beat 6-0 6-2 at the same tournament last year. Not expecting such an easy win but should still win 2-0. Kasatkina faces Minnen who has done very well to get to this stage but Kasatkina is just simply the better overall player. I would be shocked if she does not win at least a set.
Daniil Medvedev 3-0 @ 1.80 William Hill (NB)
Baez has now won 12 matches in a row but this should be the end of the line. On clay he may have the chance of an upset but on a hard court Medvedev should win this one comfortably. Until recent weeks the results for Baez on hard courts were pretty grim reading. This year he has lost to Garin 7-6 6-3 in Miami, 6-1 6-2 to Fritz in Indian Wells, 6-4 6-4 6-4 to Kubler at the Aussie Open, 7-6 6-1 to Shelton & in 3 sets to Martinez. Overall Baez has won just 13/37 matches on hard courts & 7 of those have come in the last 2 weeks. He now faces a player who loves the surface and has an impressive 75% win record winning 252/335 matches on hard courts. At 1.80 there is just about enough value for me on this to make a play.
Samsonova vs Keys
Over 22 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle
Over 10.5 Games 1st set @ 3.70 Pinnacle
I'm expecting this to be a very close match. Wouldn't at all be surprised with a 7-5/7-6 set scoreline meaning this could be won in a straight sets win. However, I do feel there is every chance this goes long. They have played each other twice before with both going to 3 sets. The first of these on grass in 2021 went the way of Samsonova 7-6 2-6 7-6 & the most recent going the way of Keys 6-3 3-6 6-3 in 2022. Both players possess big serves & there is sure to be some heavy hitting & winners in this one. Weather is also getting hotter so that will help to speed up the balls and neither of these players are known for wanting long rallies.
Other plays today:
Carlos Alcaraz Under 18.5 Games @ 2.12 Unibet
Jarry vs De Minaur Over 38.5 Games @ 2.04 Pinnacle
 

Face-palm level of badness there.
Peyton Stearns to beat Katie Boulter at 1.73 with Bet365
Stearns looked good against Tauson, though that result shouldn't be overestimated due to Tauson falling away physically in set two. Still, Stearns was pumping herself up, she's beaten Boulter already in this season, and she's going to have the same or even better crowd support as against Tauson.