Tennis Tips - September 18 - September 24

[CzechPunter]

[CzechPunter]

Camila Giorgi to beat Mayar Sherif at 1.57 with Unibet

This looks like a great opportunity for Giorgi to finally get a win on the board, Sherif should lack the skills to do well in the Guadalajara conditions, where it's really hard to control the ball. Giorgi needs to control one or two balls to win a rally, while Sherif needs a fair bit more than that.  

Harriet Dart to beat Jule Niemeier at 1.93 with Unibet

Niemeier looked like a big talent at one point, and she might still come back to do something, but she's been very up and down so far this season, mostly down. She tends to snowball performances well, but she's without much practice here, while Dart got a decent match against Savinykh in during the qualifiers, which should serve her well. I'd also say that she's the fitter of the two, and the Guangzhou conditions look like one of those in which fitness can play a role (in the qualifiers, both Volodko and Golubic looked tired after less than 2 hours).

[four-leaf]

Thanks Czech I do a double on that

[sterziyskii]

As I played Dart +1.5 sets and a couple of Chall matches, cashed out my first bet for today.

Wondering what to combine Giorgi with? Thinking about Stearns or Collins maybe

[CzechPunter]

Daria Saville (-3.5) to beat Anna-Lena Friedsam at 1.81 with Unibet

Rebecca Marino (+2.5) to beat Viktorija Golubic at 1.83 with Bet365

Saville should just outlast Friedsam in the Guangzhou conditions, I don't think Friedsam is anywhere near regular WTA level anymore unfortunately, while I didn't like Golubic in the qualifiers. Her serve is very attackable, and she seemed to struggle a bit physically as well. Marino can serve big and attack serves as well, which could prove to be the right strategy against Golubic in this encounter. 

[sterziyskii]

Piros, Gianessi and Tabilo at 2.50.

Piros and Gianessi are the much better players overall. About Tabilo, I have never watched Boyer but the surface is Tabilo's favourite one - clay and also the tournament is in Chile 

[Stanimal]

Guys, i have a question for you. 

It is illegal betting on tennis being live at matches? 

I saw today that there are some chances to get some money betting on games. 

Edited September 19 by Stanimal

[Swami]

1 hour ago, Stanimal said:

Guys, i have a question for you. 

It is illegal betting on tennis being live at matches? 

I saw today that there are some chances to get some money betting on games. 

Yes, if you get caught you might have some hard times. Anyway, it’s a well known activity, search for “courtsiders tennis betting” on Google and you’ll find all the informations you might want to know

[Swami]

Maybe Arango + games in Guadalajara? Yesterday she was really solid vs. Potapova, and the Colombian was raised in Medellin, that is 1500 m. high, so no problem for her with playing at this altitude…

[CzechPunter]

Greetje Minnen to beat Harriet Dart at 1.50 with Bet365

I backed Dart against Niemeier in the previous round and I was happy with the outcome, but I wasn't particularly happy with how Dart played. She was very lacklustre, with plenty of double faults, while Minnen looked much better against Parry.

[CzechPunter]

Emiliana Arango (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sakkari at 2.60 with Unibet

Arango is playing the tournament of her life in Guadalajara, and the fact that she managed that comeback against Townsend should allow her to play without fear against Sakkari. She's not as good, no doubt, but Sakkari has been very shaky under pressure almost all season long, and I don't think it's unrealistic for her to lose a set here, not at all. 

[Swami]

4 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Emiliana Arango (+1.5 sets) to beat Maria Sakkari at 2.60 with Unibet

Arango is playing the tournament of her life in Guadalajara, and the fact that she managed that comeback against Townsend should allow her to play without fear against Sakkari. She's not as good, no doubt, but Sakkari has been very shaky under pressure almost all season long, and I don't think it's unrealistic for her to lose a set here, not at all. 

Arango took a MTO in the 3rd yesterday (and actually after that she won 3 games in a row and the match lol) and it looked like she was struggling with serve after. I don’t think she can compete with Sakkari today, Maria might not play well lately, but the conditions in Guadalajara cause her no problem, she says she really enjoy playing there, and because of the very weak draw she has a chance at winning the all thing, I see her going trough in straight sets vs. Arango, but good luck!

[Swami]

Garcia @3.05 bf

Caro is the last big hitter standing, all the others -Alexandrova, Keys, Kostyuk…- lost pretty badly, clearly the conditions in Guadalajara don’t suit ballbashers, not easy to control the shots… but tbh I don’t understand the odds here… Vika played well yesterday, but Kudermetova is a walking bye lately… while in the previous match vs. Yastremska she was awful… Caro really needs points in this last part of the season and she will be 100% focused, as she showed vs. Sasnovich and Baptiste. H2H 3-1 Garcia. I can see a clear value in these odds

[Torque]

1 hour ago, Swami said:

Arango took a MTO in the 3rd yesterday (and actually after that she won 3 games in a row and the match lol) and it looked like she was struggling with serve after. I don’t think she can compete with Sakkari today, Maria might not play well lately, but the conditions in Guadalajara cause her no problem, she says she really enjoy playing there, and because of the very weak draw she has a chance at winning the all thing, I see her going trough in straight sets vs. Arango, but good luck!

You have to wonder how many more lives Arango can possibly have. She's more accustomed to conditions, but it helps when you have opponents who implode and as much as Sakkari is capable of that it feels like this is where Arango's luck runs out.

[CzechPunter]

Magda Linette to beat Yulia Putintseva at 1.91 with Bet365

I didn't see Linette's match against Masarova, but she was seriously good against Saville, and she also outlasted Burrage after dropping her first set in the event against her. Putintseva has had a much easier route here, beating the incredibly struggling Tauson and then the not-so-great-anymore Maria. Linette likes the courts, and she can hit Putintseva off the court in ways that Maria can't. I would have her at 1.70 here at most.

[sterziyskii]

Kenin at 1.36-1.40 against Dolehide. Garcia to win a set against Sakkari at 1.45 and Grigor -1.5 sets at 1.40. Combined all 3 - 2.80. 

Kenin hasn't played like this in a while and I don't think she will be having problems in this one. Watched Garcia and I'm pretty sure she will at least win a set, but I think she might win this one. She is really aggresive and her serve is doing well.

Watched Grigor at the friendly tournament in which he lost the final against Rublev. He was doing well and I think he will go over Varillas  pretty easy.