four-leaf

Missed that you wanted my opinion on the game but I was on -3.0 Patriots but it's kind of late to say that now. I hope you made the right decision and backed Patriots -3.0.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Ilya Marchenko at 2.10 with bet365
I like Kenny today again. He already has beaten Ilya on indoor hardcourt in france before in Rennes back in 2012 on the challenger circuit in straight sets. He played well yesterday so I fancy his chances again today.
Richard Gasquet/Malek Jaziri under 20.50 games at 1.90 with bet365
I simply like this line because Malek usually is not good enough to play against top quality opponents like Richard. Especially not in france in a tournament against top quality french opposition. Richard comes into this well rested from his davis cup performance while Malek also has played a few matches since last friday in best of 5 sets twice beating the swedes Patrik Rosenholm and Isak Arvidsson and then a three set match against Tristan Lamasine where he turned the match around after losing first set 6-1. If something similar happens in first set today there likely is no way back for Malek as Richard is quite good when it comes to shutting the door against lesser opponents. I also remember a few months ago I think in octobre when Malek had won 2 matches in Metz and got taught a lesson by Gilles Simon losing 7-6 6-0. Malek is running into some big problems today of how to handle the previous champions smart tactical play from the baseline. Malek might make a tie-break but should be going down in at least one set by a double break. If he makes a tie-break the bet might be lost since I don't count on something like 6-0 6-1 happening for sure. 7-6 6-2 is not enough but I'll have to hope for Richard to close the door early on and never allow Malek into the match.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Ilya Marchenko at 2.10 with bet365
I like Kenny today again. He already has beaten Ilya on indoor hardcourt in france before in Rennes back in 2012 on the challenger circuit in straight sets. He played well yesterday so I fancy his chances again today.
Richard Gasquet/Malek Jaziri under 20.50 games at 1.90 with bet365
I simply like this line because Malek usually is not good enough to play against top quality opponents like Richard. Especially not in france in a tournament against top quality french opposition. Richard comes into this well rested from his davis cup performance while Malek also has played a few matches since last friday in best of 5 sets twice beating the swedes Patrik Rosenholm and Isak Arvidsson and then a three set match against Tristan Lamasine where he turned the match around after losing first set 6-1. If something similar happens in first set today there likely is no way back for Malek as Richard is quite good when it comes to shutting the door against lesser opponents. I also remember a few months ago I think in octobre when Malek had won 2 matches in Metz and got taught a lesson by Gilles Simon losing 7-6 6-0. Malek is running into some big problems today of how to handle the previous champions smart tactical play from the baseline. Malek might make a tie-break but should be going down in at least one set by a double break. If he makes a tie-break the bet might be lost since I don't count on something like 6-0 6-1 happening for sure. 7-6 6-2 is not enough but I'll have to hope for Richard to close the door early on and never allow Malek into the match.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Ilya Marchenko at 2.10 with bet365
I like Kenny today again. He already has beaten Ilya on indoor hardcourt in france before in Rennes back in 2012 on the challenger circuit in straight sets. He played well yesterday so I fancy his chances again today.
Richard Gasquet/Malek Jaziri under 20.50 games at 1.90 with bet365
I simply like this line because Malek usually is not good enough to play against top quality opponents like Richard. Especially not in france in a tournament against top quality french opposition. Richard comes into this well rested from his davis cup performance while Malek also has played a few matches since last friday in best of 5 sets twice beating the swedes Patrik Rosenholm and Isak Arvidsson and then a three set match against Tristan Lamasine where he turned the match around after losing first set 6-1. If something similar happens in first set today there likely is no way back for Malek as Richard is quite good when it comes to shutting the door against lesser opponents. I also remember a few months ago I think in octobre when Malek had won 2 matches in Metz and got taught a lesson by Gilles Simon losing 7-6 6-0. Malek is running into some big problems today of how to handle the previous champions smart tactical play from the baseline. Malek might make a tie-break but should be going down in at least one set by a double break. If he makes a tie-break the bet might be lost since I don't count on something like 6-0 6-1 happening for sure. 7-6 6-2 is not enough but I'll have to hope for Richard to close the door early on and never allow Malek into the match.

Kenny de Schepper to beat Ilya Marchenko at 2.10 with bet365
I like Kenny today again. He already has beaten Ilya on indoor hardcourt in france before in Rennes back in 2012 on the challenger circuit in straight sets. He played well yesterday so I fancy his chances again today.
Richard Gasquet/Malek Jaziri under 20.50 games at 1.90 with bet365
I simply like this line because Malek usually is not good enough to play against top quality opponents like Richard. Especially not in france in a tournament against top quality french opposition. Richard comes into this well rested from his davis cup performance while Malek also has played a few matches since last friday in best of 5 sets twice beating the swedes Patrik Rosenholm and Isak Arvidsson and then a three set match against Tristan Lamasine where he turned the match around after losing first set 6-1. If something similar happens in first set today there likely is no way back for Malek as Richard is quite good when it comes to shutting the door against lesser opponents. I also remember a few months ago I think in octobre when Malek had won 2 matches in Metz and got taught a lesson by Gilles Simon losing 7-6 6-0. Malek is running into some big problems today of how to handle the previous champions smart tactical play from the baseline. Malek might make a tie-break but should be going down in at least one set by a double break. If he makes a tie-break the bet might be lost since I don't count on something like 6-0 6-1 happening for sure. 7-6 6-2 is not enough but I'll have to hope for Richard to close the door early on and never allow Malek into the match.

2 PICKS FOR TODAY:

MONTPELLIER TSONGA over 13 GAMES VS. HERBERT @ 1.96 pinnacle
SOFIA DIMITROV over 12.5 GAMES VS. JANOWICS @ 1.74 pinnacle
Expect wins for the favorites, but in the first matches after Aus. Open, expect relatively close matches against good fast court players.

 

Dustin Brown to beat Marin Cilic at 4.33 with bet365
Dustin was just awsome in the match against GG-Lopez and he should give Marin a hard time in this match. He reached semi finals in Montpellier last year so he's got some points to defend and judging by the way he was playing against GG-Lopez he will most likely be able to take out the out of form croat who hasn't played since losing 3-1 to Dan Evans in Aussie open.
Thomaz Bellucci to beat Janko Tipsarevic at 1.72 with bet365
Thomaz reached the final in Quito last year so he's got points to defend and he's given Janko some hard times before beating him twice, on clay in the Gstaad final 2012 and once on the hardcourts of Indian wells 2009 and also giving him a good match on grass losing in 3 in Stuttgart 2012 when Janko was top 10. Grass is a surface Thomaz absolutely dislikes but still he gave Janko a good match so Janko is an opponent that seems to fit him so I'll take him to beat the serb again. Not mutch to say about Jankos last match against DG-Traver since DG-Traver retired at 4-1 down but Janko probably would have won it by 5-6 games and maybe he would have needed some more court time also to be absolutely ready to face this harder round 2 opposition. Thomaz received a bye into round 2 and his form is not very good either but he's only played two matches so far this season losing both on hard court. I might be wrong but still I think he can beat Janko.

Dustin Brown to beat Marin Cilic at 4.33 with bet365
Dustin was just awsome in the match against GG-Lopez and he should give Marin a hard time in this match. He reached semi finals in Montpellier last year so he's got some points to defend and judging by the way he was playing against GG-Lopez he will most likely be able to take out the out of form croat who hasn't played since losing 3-1 to Dan Evans in Aussie open.
Thomaz Bellucci to beat Janko Tipsarevic at 1.72 with bet365
Thomaz reached the final in Quito last year so he's got points to defend and he's given Janko some hard times before beating him twice, on clay in the Gstaad final 2012 and once on the hardcourts of Indian wells 2009 and also giving him a good match on grass losing in 3 in Stuttgart 2012 when Janko was top 10. Grass is a surface Thomaz absolutely dislikes but still he gave Janko a good match so Janko is an opponent that seems to fit him so I'll take him to beat the serb again. Not mutch to say about Jankos last match against DG-Traver since DG-Traver retired at 4-1 down but Janko probably would have won it by 5-6 games and maybe he would have needed some more court time also to be absolutely ready to face this harder round 2 opposition. Thomaz received a bye into round 2 and his form is not very good either but he's only played two matches so far this season losing both on hard court. I might be wrong but still I think he can beat Janko.

Dustin Brown to beat Marin Cilic at 4.33 with bet365
Dustin was just awsome in the match against GG-Lopez and he should give Marin a hard time in this match. He reached semi finals in Montpellier last year so he's got some points to defend and judging by the way he was playing against GG-Lopez he will most likely be able to take out the out of form croat who hasn't played since losing 3-1 to Dan Evans in Aussie open.
Thomaz Bellucci to beat Janko Tipsarevic at 1.72 with bet365
Thomaz reached the final in Quito last year so he's got points to defend and he's given Janko some hard times before beating him twice, on clay in the Gstaad final 2012 and once on the hardcourts of Indian wells 2009 and also giving him a good match on grass losing in 3 in Stuttgart 2012 when Janko was top 10. Grass is a surface Thomaz absolutely dislikes but still he gave Janko a good match so Janko is an opponent that seems to fit him so I'll take him to beat the serb again. Not mutch to say about Jankos last match against DG-Traver since DG-Traver retired at 4-1 down but Janko probably would have won it by 5-6 games and maybe he would have needed some more court time also to be absolutely ready to face this harder round 2 opposition. Thomaz received a bye into round 2 and his form is not very good either but he's only played two matches so far this season losing both on hard court. I might be wrong but still I think he can beat Janko.

Well done with Brown there, @four-leaf!

Dustin Brown to beat Marin Cilic at 4.33 with bet365
Dustin was just awsome in the match against GG-Lopez and he should give Marin a hard time in this match. He reached semi finals in Montpellier last year so he's got some points to defend and judging by the way he was playing against GG-Lopez he will most likely be able to take out the out of form croat who hasn't played since losing 3-1 to Dan Evans in Aussie open.
Thomaz Bellucci to beat Janko Tipsarevic at 1.72 with bet365
Thomaz reached the final in Quito last year so he's got points to defend and he's given Janko some hard times before beating him twice, on clay in the Gstaad final 2012 and once on the hardcourts of Indian wells 2009 and also giving him a good match on grass losing in 3 in Stuttgart 2012 when Janko was top 10. Grass is a surface Thomaz absolutely dislikes but still he gave Janko a good match so Janko is an opponent that seems to fit him so I'll take him to beat the serb again. Not mutch to say about Jankos last match against DG-Traver since DG-Traver retired at 4-1 down but Janko probably would have won it by 5-6 games and maybe he would have needed some more court time also to be absolutely ready to face this harder round 2 opposition. Thomaz received a bye into round 2 and his form is not very good either but he's only played two matches so far this season losing both on hard court. I might be wrong but still I think he can beat Janko.

I completely agree. I've had my thoughts on Khachanov too so I'm taking him to win.

I like Khachanov today, maybe as the whole season so far.... Having bet on almost all Khachanov matches this season I'm a bit frustrated at how he's managed to lost especially two of them. Against Lu at 1.90 a match in which he was in complete control and had a set and break lead, he lost the second and third set in TB and in the last one he had a MP but he couldn't convert it. Then again Troicki this weekend, he had a 4-0 lead in the last TB and somehow he lost it too. Against big Ivo he lost 2-0 with two TB so yeah it can be said that he has some issues when going to a TB. Tonight he faces the one and only Benoit Paire in Montpellier. Conditions here are a bit fast which will help Khachanov powerful serve. Paire has held his serve just 71.3% of times on hard court in the last 52 weeks while he's broken 20.4% that makes a total of 91.7% which is really low for a top 50 player. However we know Paire and he can put an excellent perfomance out of nowhere it just depends on his mood. He's a former finalist here but in that run he beat mediocre oposition with the exception of Simon. On the other hand, Khachanov has a powerful serve which should be favoured by this conditions. His hold+break stats are over the 100% mark so based on that he should be favourite here. He played a 5-setter on friday against troicki and he was cramping by the end of the 4th set. The match lasted 4;30 that's a lot but given he's had four days to rest I think that wouldn't be a major issue. He's got a better serve than Paire for sure and he's a good backhand and forehand although sometimes he misses some incredible shots... I suppose the only reason why Khachanov is underdog is because he played 4.30 on friday.. Also the match will be played on GreenSet surface, especially used for indoors tournaments and Paire has not a good recent record on that surface as he lost in first round in Antwerp Rotterdam Montpellier and Metz last year against the likes of Millot, Mathieu, Darcis and Dodig.... If I don't stake a full 5 units on this bet is because I prefer to be a bit cautious regarding Khachanov fitness and bad TB record. Still I'm happy to back Khachanov at odds of over 2. 
3.5 units on Khachanov to win at 2.05
 

Alex De Minaur to beat Frances Tiafoe at 2.50 with bet365
Alex kickstarts the season with a win to qualify for his first ATP tournament at home in Brisbane. I like what Alex has shown so far and he will be poised to proceed up the rankings this season. He has got a good game and Frances didn't make anyone happy at the end of last season. He didn't finish the season in optimal ways as Alex did.

Looking forward to Liquid's preview for tomorrow's game. I found today's game a bit awkward at times with the several oscillations. Stan injured at the end of 2nd set, looked down and out and then he demolishes Roger for the next two and just when it seems like he might run away with the match, he gifts a game away on his serve and BOOM Match Over. Any chance at all that this was played to script by Roger and Stan, of course the idea seems absurd, but the match and more so the end result very much seemed like it. 

Last semi of the Aus Open, Dimitrov will try to reach his first GS final while Rafa will try to reach his fourth final in Australia. My bet for this semi is mainly based on form. Dimitrov has just played superb this season. He's unbeaten so far and he's faced some good opposition. In Australia he got a bit lucky because Nole was eliminated early so he didn't have to face him. He's lost just two sets, one against Chung which was probably his worst set in the tournament and the other against Istomin who played really well for the first two sets. Then he's beaten comfortably Gasquet and Goffin. He's been serving well during this tournament. 
Nadal has been playing well too this season. I'd say is the best he's played on hard court for the last two years. He's recovered confidence and he's been serving well in Australia. He's beaten Monfils, Raonic, Zverev in his route to the semifinal. It seems Raonic had some issues and was quickly beaten after missing 6 set points in the second set. 
Rafa leads H2H 7-1 (4-1 on hard) but last match (beijing 16) was won by Dimitrov. It's true Rafa wasn't playing like he's doing now but Dimitrov as well is playing much better. 
Odds on Dimitrov are around 3. I think the match will be closer than what the odds suggest. H2H and superb semifinal record gives Rafa an advantage. But Dimitrov's form is just amazing and I'd give him more than 30% of chances to win this match. 
2.5 units on Dimitrov to beat Nadal at 3.00 

Jennifer Brady to beat Mirjana Lucic-Baroni at 2.50 with bet365
I think we have a new Shelby Rogers kind of player here. Jennifer has so far played good enough tennis to take out the tricky Heater Watson in a tight decider 10-8 and after that upsetting Elena Vesnina in straight sets and now facing the experienced croatian veteran Mirjana Lucic-Baroni who's played 2 three set matches so far in the tournament. Mirjana is the smallest favourite in the 4 matches on monday so I think if I have to pick an underdog for monday Jennifer is the one who might be worth a try.

The rest is from the WTA AO Qualifiers. I might be self-destructing ahead of the Grand Slam, but I'm not going to ignore value when I think it's there.
Perez to bt. Majeric at 2.10 with Skybet
Perez in a very solid form going into this and home conditions seem to be doing wonders for her as well, so I like her at evens against someone who has very little experience in Australia and who hasn't played in 2017 yet.
Morita to bt. Boserup at 3.50 with Skybet
A tad risky, but let's go for it at this price. Boserup is nothing special in my eyes, while Morita is much better when she's on. She was injured for quite some time, but she seems to be back by the looks of things and the retirement vs. Schiavone was apparently just to not make things worse ahead of this. Morita also won the previous meeting between the two, so worth a shot at 3.50.
Hozumi to bt. Zidansek at 2.50 with BetVictor
Some people see Zidansek as a big talent and I wouldn't disagree, but she has very little hard court experience and also very little Australia experience, so Hozumi should have every chance of winning this imo. Not only does she play in Asia a lot, but she also plays almost exclusively on hard courts.
Kuwata to bt. Shinikova at 2.62 with Bet365
Not a huge difference between the two in my opinion and Kuwata should feel much more comfortable in the conditions as well, especially if the weather gets hotter. Looks like a coin-flip to me really, so I'll go with the premium price.
 

Monica Niculescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Kirsten Flipkens at 2.25 with Pinnacle
I still think Monica is in good enough form to beat Kirsten here in straight sets. Both times when Monica has beaten Kirsten it's been done in straight sets so it leads me to belive Monica will be to hard for Kirsten again and win this in straights. Monica is a really tricky opponent with her slice shots all the time and my thought is that Kirsten will again have some problems with it. It's always hard to adapt to Monicas style of play. Any player can struggle against it. Even if Kirsten knows Monica very well I don't think she will manage to take a set here. To me Kirsten is acctually not in her best singles form at the moment. Her doubles result says nothing really and getting past Jaimee Fourlis in the Hobart first round 7-6 6-4 is no greater accomplishment.

Monica Niculescu to beat (-1.5 sets) Kirsten Flipkens at 2.25 with Pinnacle
I still think Monica is in good enough form to beat Kirsten here in straight sets. Both times when Monica has beaten Kirsten it's been done in straight sets so it leads me to belive Monica will be to hard for Kirsten again and win this in straights. Monica is a really tricky opponent with her slice shots all the time and my thought is that Kirsten will again have some problems with it. It's always hard to adapt to Monicas style of play. Any player can struggle against it. Even if Kirsten knows Monica very well I don't think she will manage to take a set here. To me Kirsten is acctually not in her best singles form at the moment. Her doubles result says nothing really and getting past Jaimee Fourlis in the Hobart first round 7-6 6-4 is no greater accomplishment.

Mchale vs Radwanska 6.55 Pinnacle
 
McHale is showing nice form here. She already won in style for matches. The American is a player, who is capable to stun Top 10 players and will give everything in every ball. Aga didn't look very well last week. She was destroyed by Riske, who is weaker player than McHale. I can't belive how they are giving such odds for McHale (I would put max 4.00 for her)