four-leaf

I will be on over 29.5 games @ 1.9 in the game between Struff and Federer tomorrow.Struff was serving nice in the last round and i for one,think that we are bound to see at least one tie break here.Struff is talented enough to take a set off Roger and given the surprises we've seen so far i am more than happy to giv this bet a go @ odds that generous.Federer to win but not in straightforward fashion.
over 29.5 games @ 1.90
over 3.5 sets @ 3.50
both with bet365

Carla Suárez Navarro to beat Timea Babos at 1.83 with Paddypower
Carla has a nice 3-0 record in this matchup beating Timea at all 3 of the different surfaces. I don't see Timeas last win as something to put to mutch attention at. She probably didn't do mutch except playing a solid enough match and let Coco do the rest with hitting wild forehands and serving awful since I can't think of any other way the match went because I don't see Timea outhitting Coco. The way I see it Timea without some help is otherwise not good enough to outclass a top 10 opponent. Carla can win this match by being solid from the baseline which is exactly what she built her game on the last few years. Even if Carla beat Timea 3 times when she was a top 10-20 player I think she can do it again.
Anett Kontaveit to beat (-4.5) Mona Barthel at 2.10 with Paddypower
Sometimes Paddy can offer way to big prices on some handicaps like this one. Bet365 is just at 1.90 on the same handicap. Mona has opened the season with back-to-back loses in straight sets by being outclassed twice by Varvara Lepchenko in Auckland and Hobart, and Mona is more of a clay specialist since all her 4 titles except Hobart 2012 have come on slow surfaces so I doubt the courts in Melbourne suits her game. If Kontaveit plays to her normal standard she can win this with a few games to spare. Anyway the 2.10 offered by Paddy is what makes me consider this. No special bet unless I get over evens which I have.

Marta Kostyuk, how good is this 15 year old? She's although quite lucky to have come through in straight sets. She's even supported by Ivan Ljubicic and Fed. To get to third round at 15 years old is as good as Martina Hingis was at 15 years old as she was the last 15 year old to reach third round. But she'll be out next round most likely since it's gonna be Elina Svitolina or Katerina Siniakova. But credit to her for beating Shuai Peng and winning three matches in 3 sets in the qualies. Very strong.

Olivia Rogowska to beat Marta Kostyuk at 2.50 livebet with bet365 
Watching Marta Kostyuk play right now. She's a great ballstriker. Not mutch value in backing her to win before the match. Should have backed her before her last match against Shuai Peng but I didn't see that coming. Knowing more about her now. She's still 15 and turns 16 this summer. Ranked as junior no.2 and WTA ranking 521 with career high 491 last season and she's already won an ITF title beating 5 top 400 players in straight sets. This junior girl is coming strong, she'll be someone to watch out for in the future if she continue developing like this. She's going skyhigh in the rankings compared to american Whitney Osuigwe who is junior no.1 but still outside the WTA 1000 rankings.
She's just beaten Shuai Peng in straight sets but she may come as a bit to heavy favourite in this match.

Second round starts tonight, i'll bet on the players I mentioned a couple of days ago with a couple of extra bets that i found interesting. I fancy Shapovalov to beat Tsonga and I also like the bet on "to be a tiebreak? Yes" My bookie offers me 2.50 which I find an interesting price, both are more serve orientated players and this surface is a bit faster than normal hard courts. So I think there's a nice chance that the match features a tiebreak. On the other hand, I like "to be a tiebreak? No" on simon-PCB, both players are good returners, break serve lots of times, so i expect quite a few breaks in this match. I had considered Simon to win but the price is not attractive to me anymore. And finally I've decided to back Harrison to continue his run down under.
I would have liked to bet on NO TIEBREAK on Schwartzman-Ruud but my bookie doesn't offer that option. I'm having also a small bet on Seppi to reach SF. His section is really open now so why not trying a big longshot?
For wednesday I placed an early bet on Gojow.... to win a set against Zverev. He just didn't look solid today, Fabbiano failed to serve for the set twice!! 
4 units on Harrison to beat Cuevas at 1.63
3 units on "To be a tiebreak? No" on Simon-PCB at 1.95
2.5 units on Shapovalov to beat Tsonga at 2.52
2.5 units on "To be a tiebreak? Yes" on Shapo-Tsonga at 2.50
2 units on Istomin to beat Edmund at 2.87
0.5 units on Seppi to reach SF at 40
It feels like it could well be a clean day with full of winners or a solid 0-5 to start the second round.
Good luck to everyone

The problem is that McDonald doesn't have a reliable serve, so he'll have to win nearly all the points the hard way. He's a better HC player than Novak and he's got an incredibly good attitude, but he's got exactly zero experience and I therefore wouldn't rule out a 6-1/6-0 set. Kinda looks like 50/50 to me whether it's going to be a complete rout or not, I'm slightly leaning to Dimitrov crushing Mackie, but the odds you have are well above evens, so they look fine from where I'm sitting. I have zero trust in McDonald at this level right now, however.

Carla Suárez Navarro to beat Timea Babos at 1.83 with Paddypower
Carla has a nice 3-0 record in this matchup beating Timea at all 3 of the different surfaces. I don't see Timeas last win as something to put to mutch attention at. She probably didn't do mutch except playing a solid enough match and let Coco do the rest with hitting wild forehands and serving awful since I can't think of any other way the match went because I don't see Timea outhitting Coco. The way I see it Timea without some help is otherwise not good enough to outclass a top 10 opponent. Carla can win this match by being solid from the baseline which is exactly what she built her game on the last few years. Even if Carla beat Timea 3 times when she was a top 10-20 player I think she can do it again.
Anett Kontaveit to beat (-4.5) Mona Barthel at 2.10 with Paddypower
Sometimes Paddy can offer way to big prices on some handicaps like this one. Bet365 is just at 1.90 on the same handicap. Mona has opened the season with back-to-back loses in straight sets by being outclassed twice by Varvara Lepchenko in Auckland and Hobart, and Mona is more of a clay specialist since all her 4 titles except Hobart 2012 have come on slow surfaces so I doubt the courts in Melbourne suits her game. If Kontaveit plays to her normal standard she can win this with a few games to spare. Anyway the 2.10 offered by Paddy is what makes me consider this. No special bet unless I get over evens which I have.

Meh.
For Wednesday:
Elise Mertens to beat Daria Gavrilova at 1.95 with Unibet
Elise Mertens is 8-1 so far in this season, with that record including one win over Gavrilova (the sole loss came against Kerber). She's on a tremendous streak and she started her AO run with a very easy win, so she doesn't seem to be tired after that long week in Hobart. Gavrilova will have the home advantage on her side and that could work in her favour, but I'd have Mertens around 1.70 here honestly. She's just the better player in the better form.
Kaia Kanepi (-3.5) to beat Monica Puig at 1.83 with Bet365
Puig somehow managed to get past Stosur after the Australian choked, which was kinda predictable given her record in Aussie events, but Kanepi should be way too strong honestly. She's back with a vengeance after a long injury break, 6-1 in this season, losing only against Pliskova - and she was very competitive even in that match. Puig can have patches of brilliancy, but Kanepi is much more solid and accurate, so she should take this in the end. Controlled aggression has always been better than senseless one.
Belinda Bencic (-4.5) to beat Luksika Kumkhum at 1.80 with Bet365
Yep, I'm going to jump on the Belinda bandwagon after seeing her against Venus. Kumkhum has a strange habit of getting big wins out of nowhere in Australia, she even managed to beat Kvitova here a couple of years ago, but I think that overwhelming chances are that she won't have enough to challenge Bencic, who's learned to avoid silly mistakes during her injury break. If Bencic is on song, this could be over very quickly.

Marcos Baghdatis to beat Andrey Rublev at 3.25 with bet365
Marcos was just his usual self when he destroyed Yuki Bhambri. You know what you get from Baggy, a throughout solid performance. The old fox can easily teach this young gun a lesson. I'm one of those who doesn't get surprised that he could destroy Yuki Bhambri. Don't know what's up with Rublev but he needs more experience to prevent things to happen like dropping a 5-2 lead as he did against David Ferrer where he was double break up in fourth set. I'm all over Baggy here, he's to consistent for Andrey. The bookie have got it all wrong here.
Denis Shapovalov to beat Jo-Wilfried Tsonga at 2.62 with bet365
I agree with LePapo here. Denis should be to strong for Jo-Willy again.

He was linked with the Stoke job. That's now speculation that's gone away but it's surely been a distraction. That said, maybe him staying could galvanize the players against Barcelona.

First thing that comes up in my head is Espanyol to beat Barcelona 

Filip Krajinovic has withdrawn and Matteo Berrettini has takes his spot and at least one more player is out since Peter Polansky comes in as a lucky loser but I don't know who he replaced.

Cedric-Marcel Stebe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.50 with bet365
Gonna have a try on C-MS here. He retired in Doha first round after losing first set to Andrey Rublev and Max lost in the same event in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in qualifiying. None of these guys are big time hardcourt players especially not Max since all he's done is winning a few challengers on clay. I'll regret myself if I don't pick C-M to win if he wins and I didn't pick him so I have to take this bet. Head-to-head it's 1-0 C-MS after he won in straight sets on clay in challenger Sibiu in september last season. C-MS is underdog here because he retired in his last match in Doha and in Antwerp first round in october last season. I'll take my chances with C-MS and hope he is 100% otherwise he'll probably retire.

Bhambri vs. Baghdatis - Bhambri to win @2.10 with Bet365
The first bet I took on this forum lost, so hoping for better luck now. Bhambri has come through qualifying and is very used to the courts and heat which is a big factor in Melbourne. He's a great retriever and decent shot maker. He was former junior number 1 and now he's making his way back up after several injuries, talent level a top 50 in my opinion. He's a pretty cool, casual guy. Against him Grand Old Daddy, who's won a match in the exhibition but I don't count it much. He's very up and down in matches and I don't think can last 5 sets in his first match of the year. Towards the end of last year, his level of play had dropped appreciably and I can't see it getting any better. It may be a long match, but Yuki should prevail in the end.  

The draw is complete and tomic will have enough time to count his millions lol. These qualifiers/Lucky losers change nothing so i'll stick to my analysis. I've found unibet pays 25 on simon to reach SF and thats a pretty good deal. I'll have one bet on harrison to reach SF at 50, i think he won't get past cilic in an eventual match but i'll ride my luck with just half a unit. In the second quarter i think anderson is the best bet if you want to oppose dimitrov and kyrgios. And finally i'll try with goffin to win his quarter
0.5 units on Simon to reach SF at 25
0.25 units on Harrison to reach SF at 50
1.5 unit on Anderson to reach SF at 10
1.5 unit on Goffin to reach SF at 7
For tonight I fancy a couple of players. Cuevas is clearly a clay court player and it seems he doesn't like conditions here, last year i saw him tanking against schwartzman so he's not to trust on hard courd imo. Youzhny is not the same player he was a few years ago but he can still hit a ball. I'd call this match 50-50 but odds favour cuevas so i'm betting against the house in this match.
And I like millman, he's been playing some decent tennis, should have beaten dimitrov in brisbane (although it's true that dimitrov played a horrible match) and should've beaten muller in sydney just that he choked the first set and then it was all over. Also i like the fact that aussies overperform in front of their public. Coric has lost his three matches here (Dolgo Ramos Chardy) so at 2.10 i'm happy to bet on millman
And finally I think Istomin has a decent chance to progress, only issue is that he retired in his last match but i think it was more a precaution than other thing. He faces herbert who is mainly a doubles player. If istomin plays like he did in Brisbane i think there's nice value on him. 
I'm considering +10.5 games SET 1 shapo-tsitsipas but i havent decided yet.
Good luck for everyone during this fortnight

2 PICKS FOR WTA AUSTRALIAN OPEN:
KERBER-FRIEDSAM 2:0 SETS @ 1.45 pinnacle
SVITOLINA-JOROVIC 2:0 SETS @ 1.3 pinnacle
expect two easy 1st round wins for the favorites who already showed some great form in 2018.

Cedric-Marcel Stebe to beat Maximilian Marterer at 2.50 with bet365
Gonna have a try on C-MS here. He retired in Doha first round after losing first set to Andrey Rublev and Max lost in the same event in straight sets to Matteo Berrettini in qualifiying. None of these guys are big time hardcourt players especially not Max since all he's done is winning a few challengers on clay. I'll regret myself if I don't pick C-M to win if he wins and I didn't pick him so I have to take this bet. Head-to-head it's 1-0 C-MS after he won in straight sets on clay in challenger Sibiu in september last season. C-MS is underdog here because he retired in his last match in Doha and in Antwerp first round in october last season. I'll take my chances with C-MS and hope he is 100% otherwise he'll probably retire.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with Bet365
Going to follow you on that one, fully agree with what you've said. McDonald also played three tough sets yesterday, while Ymer just two easy ones, which could play a role if this goes to 4/5 sets.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with bet365
Finally Elias gets another chance to win a gs match after 4 previous main draw failures. He's been playing solid throughout the qualifiers and solid enough in Doha qualifiers only losing to in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas. Here's gonna be a another solid performance by Elias and this time he can finally win a gs match. Elias experience in best of 5 sets is superior to Mackies since he's only played one of those in his career losing in 5 sets to Jan Satral in USO first round 2016. Elias is the best swedish player so therefore he's been picked to represent sweden on a number of occasions in Davis cup and has played 4 times in gs main draw after he qualified 4 straight times in 2015. Elias should win this match if he plays as he's been doing since november.

Elias Ymer to beat Mackenzie McDonald at 1.90 with bet365
Finally Elias gets another chance to win a gs match after 4 previous main draw failures. He's been playing solid throughout the qualifiers and solid enough in Doha qualifiers only losing to in-form Stefanos Tsitsipas. Here's gonna be a another solid performance by Elias and this time he can finally win a gs match. Elias experience in best of 5 sets is superior to Mackies since he's only played one of those in his career losing in 5 sets to Jan Satral in USO first round 2016. Elias is the best swedish player so therefore he's been picked to represent sweden on a number of occasions in Davis cup and has played 4 times in gs main draw after he qualified 4 straight times in 2015. Elias should win this match if he plays as he's been doing since november.

first slam of the year starts in a couple of days and the draw is already out. Nadal is the top seed and his quarter looks quite easy IMO. It's true he hasn't played a competitive match since london, but he has some easy opponents for the first rounds so i think that'll help to get some rythm before the latter stages. he also has a good record here, having lost mainly against top 10 opposition and the only one in his quarter will be cilic. He was easily  beaten by nadal last year in shanghai which is one of the fastest tournaments on tour and he has a 1-4 h2h against rafa on hard court. Odds on him to reach SF are around 4.5 and to me that represents zero value. Maybe a big longshot can be Harrison, he had a good run in brisbane and he was playing quite well and at odds of 50 it looks a bit generous to me, the only problem is he might face cilic in R3 and the h2h is 4-1 to cilic. Simon can be another dark horse, he showed some form in Pune and he has a decent record here. 8 of his last 9 losses here have been against top 10 opposition, he has a good h2h against cilic and he's at 15 to reach SF. So if one wants to oppose nadal i think the best options would be simon and harrison with the idea to hedge the bets if they reach a decisive match against rafa. Cilic would be an interesting option but not at those odds, maybe at 8 i might be tempted.
Then the second quarter looks a bit more open than the first one. Dimitrov Kyrgios Anderson and Sock are the main seeds. My bookie makes kyrgios favourite to reach SF, he's playing abolutely good tennis now but tbh i couldn't have a bet on him given his fitness issues and his mentality. In brisbane i had a bet on him to win the tournament but every match was a torture. He gave away the first set just to win it easily in 3. But in a slam you just cant give away sets. Also in brisbane he had some issues on his knee... Then Dimitrov who is looking to improve his last year result here when he reached semis and lost in 5 against rafa. But odds on him look short to me given he'd probably face kyrgios/tsonga and rublev who beat him in the us open before facing  anderson or sock. Tsonga had a good 2017 he won 4 tournaments but i don't know whats the issue with him that he manages a way to choke a match or to underperform in a big match like he did against stan last year here. He might face shapovalov who beat him last year in usa, then he might face kyrgios, then dimitrov and then anderson/sock. My bookie pays just 15 and to me that's surely no value. In the lower part of the quarter we have sock and anderson. I don't consider pouille given that he's never won a match here, he's mainly a hard court indoor player and his hold and break stats are nothing special. Sock and Anderson are at 10 to reach semis which looks about right to me, especially for anderson. It's true that he faces a tricky first round opponent like edmund but the british has a poor record against top 20 players (6-22) Sock didn't look well in auckland and he said he was a bit rusty. He faces sugita in 1R and then probably big ivo. Not the players you would like to face to start getting some rythm.
The Q3 looks a bit tricky, we have lots of concerns regarding djokovic fitness, although he's said he's ok. If he is near his best physical shape, then odds on him to reach SF are massive value. Djokovic in australia is sth similar to what rafa is in france or roger in london. Zverev looks like a threat but he's not proven in best of 5 conditions. Stan hasn't played a match for a while and he decided yesterday that he'll play the aus open so i don't expect much from him. Thiem has a nice draw to reach at least the fourth round but i think 6.50 to win his quarter is quite short. And finally RBA who has achieved some great results here he has a nice 3-0 h2h against thiem. The problem is he faces verdasco in 1R and thats a tricky one. Odds on him offer some value to me, he's currently at 12 to reach semis so if he manages to get past verdasco and odds don't drop significantly he might be a good option to oppose djokovic.
Finally the Q4, unless some miracle from raonic it seems that RF will reach at least the quarterfinals, so that section of the draw is dead to me. In the higher section of the draw we find goffin delpo berdych as the main seeds and some good young players like tiafoe khachanov and deminaur. Thing is that almost with the exception of goffin, these players are pack in one half of the section, so it'll be a bit tough for delpo or berdych to reach the fourth round, meanwhile goffin has a more than accessible way to the fourth round. So between him at 7 or delpo at 6, i fancy goffin to play agaisnt federer for a spot  in the last four. He beat him last year so i think all psychological issues should have disappeared. He's shown a great level of tennis recently and he has a nice opportunity to reach his first SF in a grand slam.
I'll just wait the qualifiers to be placed as tomic might change things a little bit
it's been a while i havent written here, I would like to read some of your thoughts about the draw and who you consider can go deep down under

Angelique Kerber to win Australian open at 15.00 with Betsson
Kerber is steamrolling right now and should do well in the first grand slam. She had an awful 2017 so she should be better this season if her form keeps rising like it has since the season started.

I have a small stake on a fourfold that goes like this...
Fabio Fognini to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80
Fabio can play really good when he wants to and he wants to play really good this week and when he does that he is the better player in this matchup.
Alex de Minaur to beat Benoit Paire at 1.90
Alex de Minaur continues to surprise until no one is surprised anymore. Anyway I got him totally wrong in his previous match. Feli Lopez had no answers at all. Alex beat Benoit last season in Sydney in 3 sets and now he is even more dangerous so I think Alex wins again. 
Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.00
David has nothing to collect here except his bags and ticket to Melbourne. He's played well in Auckland before David winning it 4 times but that doesn't count when J-M is on the other side of the net and he's won Auckland once and should do it a second time.
Angelique Kerber to beat (in 3 sets) Camila Giorgi at 4.00
Angie should have a hard time in this match since Cam is playing so good right now and just blows everyone off the court and she can blow Angie away to for a set at least but Angie should be able to win this matchup for a third time since it's 2-0 head to head with Angie winning in 3 sets last time they played.
Total odds: 27.49 with Paddypower

I have a small stake on a fourfold that goes like this...
Fabio Fognini to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80
Fabio can play really good when he wants to and he wants to play really good this week and when he does that he is the better player in this matchup.
Alex de Minaur to beat Benoit Paire at 1.90
Alex de Minaur continues to surprise until no one is surprised anymore. Anyway I got him totally wrong in his previous match. Feli Lopez had no answers at all. Alex beat Benoit last season in Sydney in 3 sets and now he is even more dangerous so I think Alex wins again. 
Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.00
David has nothing to collect here except his bags and ticket to Melbourne. He's played well in Auckland before David winning it 4 times but that doesn't count when J-M is on the other side of the net and he's won Auckland once and should do it a second time.
Angelique Kerber to beat (in 3 sets) Camila Giorgi at 4.00
Angie should have a hard time in this match since Cam is playing so good right now and just blows everyone off the court and she can blow Angie away to for a set at least but Angie should be able to win this matchup for a third time since it's 2-0 head to head with Angie winning in 3 sets last time they played.
Total odds: 27.49 with Paddypower

We all have our ups and downs and you did so well last week! Like CzechPunter said, chin up!  win or lose, we are (well, most people here) are thankful for your previews, insights, predictions and effort. Thank you and good luck with your bets in the coming weeks.