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CzechPunter

January 8 - January 14

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Kirsten Flipkens to beat Kristyna Pliskova at 1.91 with BetVictor

Pliskova did surprise everyone a bit last week, but Flipkens is going to be a very different proposition than the likes of Ostapenko and Bogdan. It will be a clash of styles, really, with Pliskova going for her shots and Flipkens trying to upset her rhythm with all kinds of slices and neutral shots. If Pliskova gets her rhythm on quickly and confidently, she is going to win this, but Flipkens knows the conditions well after the qualifiers and she also has a 2-0 record against the Czech, so I'd have her as the favourite in this match. Looks like 60/40 to me.

Karen Khachanov to beat Yuichi Sugita at 1.60 with Unibet

Khachanov beat Sugita 6-4 6-2 last week and, honestly, this could just be more of the same. Sugita will want to turn things around, of course, but the performances he put in during the Hopman Cup were far from convincing, while Khachanov managed to trouble both Sock and Federer in that tournament. I fancy Khachanov quite strongly here - he could even take the title if things go his way.

Fabio Fognini/Rajeev Ram to beat Viktor Troicki/Jan-Lennard Struff at 1.72 with Bet365

First of all, Troicki and Struff aren't exactly doubles specialists. Secondly, they are both out of the singles and there's a Grand Slam tournament just around the corner, so the motivation factor isn't likely to be that great. Ram is a doubles specialist and Fognini plays doubles very regularly, so I'd have this pair closer to the 1.40 mark here.

Paolo Lorenzi/Mischa Zverev (+1.5 sets) to beat Jean-Julien Rojer/Horia Tecau at 2.23 with Sbobet

The match line is certainly playable at 5.00, but I prefer the set handicap for safety reasons, especially since both Lorenzi and Zverev are in Sydney primarily for the singles. They are capable volleyers, however, and they've played some good matches together, even taking a set off Kontinen/Peers at the end of the last year. Rojer and Tecau will be playing for the first time in 2018, so there might be some rustiness as well - and, well, even one break could be enough for them to lose a set.

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ITF USA F1

Christopher Eubanks to beat Karue Sell at 1.61 with bet365

The 21 year old Christopher has been serving really well this week. I backed him against Guillermo Olaso and Alex Sarkissian and now he comes up against the 24 year old brazilian world number 691 and he's ranked 347 himself with only a season as a pro. We will probably see Christopher rise a lot in the rankings this season if he continues the way he's been doing this week. He comes from Atlanta and at home in Atlanta last season he upset Taylor Fritz and Steve Johnson to reach the quarters where he lost to Ryan Harrison who came up short in the final against John Isner. Christopher is 2.01cm tall and serves naturally pretty well not leaving many breakpoints to his opponents and he's been doing just that this week. He did well yesterday by beating Kaichi Uchida who is ranked 351 and Kaichi who served very good only droped serve once in the match at the end of third set which cost him the match. Christopher is a player you don't get many chances to get back against if you get broken and Karue is ranked over 300 places lower in the rankings so I think the Atlanta native should win this in at least 7/10 times on hardcourt in the US. Only a small warning should be issued about Karue who is yet to drop a set this week but Christoper is something entirely different to come up against compared to what he's faced this week. The american to win unless he gets outplayed to mutch in the rallies but I honestly can't see that happening in his own serve so as long as he serves as good as in previous matches this week he should win.

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1 hour ago, four-leaf said:

What do you say Czech? Shouldn't Christoper win? I don't say he's gonna win in straight sets but win he should.

He's definitely the favourite, but I have to admit that I don't know all that much about Karue Sell, I think that I'm actually yet to see him play.

On another note - Dolgopolov is now dropping big against Fognini, which *might* mean that the Italian is injured/having some problems. I'm not going to cancel my doubles bet above, but be careful.

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Petra Kvitova - Mirjana Lucic Baroni (+4,5 games) 2 with Betway @2,20

I read an interview with Mirjana Lucic a couple of weeks ago in Croatian papers where she said that she never felt so good at the beginning of the season both physically and mentally.Last week in Brisbane she beat Maria and the lost to Cornet but I think these two matches were just some kind of additional preparation for competitive tennis in the following weeks.She loves to play "Down Under" and will probably do her best to repeat last season`s record at AO.

This is going to be the first match of the season for Kvitova after she retired from the tournament in Brisbane due to a virus (I read that on her twitter page).We all know how good Kvitova can be but taking all the facts into consideration I don`t think this will be a walk in the park for her.I expect Lucic to cover this handicap and I won`t call it a miracle if she takes a set or even wins.

 

Edited by ivanhoe

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3 hours ago, ivanhoe said:

Petra Kvitova - Mirjana Lucic Baroni (+4,5 games) 2 with Betway @2,20

I read an interview with Mirjana Lucic a couple of weeks ago in Croatian papers where she said that she never felt so good at the beginning of the season both physically and mentally.Last week in Brisbane she beat Maria and the lost to Cornet but I think these two matches were just some kind of additional preparation for competitive tennis in the following weeks.She loves to play "Down Under" and will probably do her best to repeat last season`s record at AO.

This is going to be the first match of the season for Kvitova after she retired from the tournament in Brisbane due to a virus (I read that on her twitter page).We all know how good Kvitova can be but taking all the facts into consideration I don`t think this will be a walk in the park for her.I expect Lucic to cover this handicap and I won`t call it a miracle if she takes a set or even wins.

 

Will take this, Karen Khachanov to win and Christopher Eubanks to win in a nice treble to start the week.

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Elise Mertens to beat Beatriz Haddad Maia at 1.57 with BetVictor

2-2 today, with the doubles bets both losing in TBs/STBs, which is kinda unlucky. There probably was something wrong with Fognini, but Lorenzi/Zverev had a mini-break in their TB and didn't convert, which is a shame. Anyway, I don't see all that much for tomorrow, but I will go for this one. Elise Mertens is defending the title in Hobart and, judging from her current form, she could definitely go for. She was brilliant during both the Hopman Cup and her match against Nara, so I have her as a big favourite against Haddad Maia, who doesn't have any weapons that she could use to beat attacking players that are in the zone. Unless Mertens misfires, this will be hers.

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She`s not in her prime - definitely.I agree with you she won`t get as fas as last year but,if injury is not serious enough and depending on the draw,I`ll stick with her in preliminary round(s).

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Donna Vekic to beat Marketa Vondrousova at 2.25 with bet365

I think Donna is the better player here and should win this if she has any top 50 ambitions this season. Marketa is heavily overrated since she won that Biel title last season. I don't see any reason why Donna shouldn't be able to win this. Marketa is also still 17 years old and does have problems to win matches. She is struggling to win and should do so also in this match. I may be totally wrong about both these players but Donna has a lot more experience to count on and that could be a decisive factor. I would be surprised if Marketa sails to a comfortable victory. In fact I think it could be the opposite outcome where Donna sails to a comfortable victory.

Czech what's your opinion? Have I missed something about Marketa?

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Katerina Siniakova to beat Alison Riske at 1.84 with Unibet

Katerina is the better player and still sits as only a small favourite. Head to head it's 2-0 to Katerina and 4-0 in sets between them and the matches where played in Tokyo quarters 2016 and Shenzhen final 2017. Seems like we have Katerina as only a small favourite because she comes from a final otherwise the odds would probably be lower on Katerina. If it isn't that reason I don't know why she's priced at 1.84 and I'm taking it because I don't think this bet is a trap.

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@four-leaf Yes, actually, I think that you've missed the fact that Vondrousova is a potential GS winner, she really is one of the most talented youngsters on the tour at the moment. I'm really not sure that she's that overrated, but the fact that she's so young does mean that she's going to lose matches that she should be winning etc. The odds look fine to me, not sure that there's value on Vekic, but I'll be cheering for her, as I have a pre-season pick on her to do well in 2018. She can definitely win and she's only a small underdog, but that's what the odds are suggesting as well, so there you go. Vekic can out-hit her, but Vondrousova should win most longer rallies, hard to say what's going to happen, it's not as clear-cut as the Flipkens-Pliskova match-up was, for example.

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Ramkumar Ramanthan to beat Bradley Klahn at 1.75 with Marathonbet

Wouldn't be surprised to see this drop to something like 1.5, Ramanathan is a class above Klahn imo.

Jozef Kovalik to beat Gastao Elias at 1.93 with Marathonbet

Elias hasn't played yet in 2018 + Kovalik has a great record against him, something like 4-1, winning the only previous HC encounter.

Joao Souza to beat Andrea Collarini at 1.99 with Marathonbet

Souza did well in Pune, can serve, and has already played in 2018. Better hard court player as well.

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3 hours ago, CzechPunter said:

Ramkumar Ramanthan to beat Bradley Klahn at 1.75 with Marathonbet

Wouldn't be surprised to see this drop to something like 1.5, Ramanathan is a class above Klahn imo.

Jozef Kovalik to beat Gastao Elias at 1.93 with Marathonbet

Elias hasn't played yet in 2018 + Kovalik has a great record against him, something like 4-1, winning the only previous HC encounter.

Joao Souza to beat Andrea Collarini at 1.99 with Marathonbet

Souza did well in Pune, can serve, and has already played in 2018. Better hard court player as well.

What happened with the Ramathan - Klahn odds? 

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Not sure, first they went down a bit and now they are at 2.25 or so. I was betting on them going down, didn't happen, who knows, maybe someone knows something about Ramanathan being injured. The other two picks went the other way, Kovalik now at 1.67 generally and Souza even 1.40, so I've got 2/3 right in terms of movements.

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CiCi Bellis to beat Agnieszka Radwanska at 2.50 with Paddypower

CiCi beat Aga in Dubai last season in 3 sets and she's defenitely on course to do it again. She's playing good tennis while Aga is not anymore. The fact that Sachia Vickery managed to beat Aga easily in Auckland last week speaks volumes. CiCi is a better player and just because Aga beat Jo Konta doesn't mean she will win this.

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John Millman to beat Gilles Muller at 1.72 with bet365

Gilles hasn't been playing good tennis since Wimbledon. John has been playing good tennis since US open and that I saw last week in Brisbane when he took a set in his match v Grigor Dimitrov and crushed Peter Polansky in round 1. Now he's received a wild card for Sydney and it seems as he will make it count. Gilles is the defending champ in Sydney. To start the season he lost to Hyeon Chung in straight sets and if he's not playing well he will have problems against a motivated aussie.

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Alexandr Dolgopolov to beat Fabio Fognini at 1.48 with Unibet

Alexandr has a 5-0 lead in the head to head against Fabio. Alexandr is 3-1 to start the season and Fabio is playing his first match this year. Bad for Fabio and Alexandr should win this.

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2/3 yesterday, Ramanathan won despite rising odds, Souza lost despite a big drop, so there you go, don't trust the odds movements at all costs. Shame that Souza lost honestly, as he won the first set, but what can you do.

Tereza Martincova to beat Luksika Kumkhum at 3.80 with 10Bet

Kumkhum is the obvious favourite, but 3.80 on Martincova is crazy. Definite value regardless of the result.

Paolo Lorenzi (+3) to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80 with Marathonbet

Lorenzi has done really well in Auckland so far, beating Thomspon and Ramos in straight sets. Before that, he took a set off Monfils in Doha, so he really has some form at the start of the season. Medvedev is more talented, but he looked very tired in his match against Donaldson and I'm not sure that he'll want to exert himself to the limit with the GS just around the corner. All in all, this should be a tight match, so I'll go with Lorenzi on a solid games handicap.

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I wont have any bets now but I'll give some thoughts on some of the matches in Sydney, Hobart and Auckland, challenger Bangkok and Aussie open qualies.

Adrian Mannarino to beat Fabio Fognini

Adrian have a 2-0 lead on hard outdoor without dropping a set to Fabio, he's good enough to take it again.

Feli Lopez to beat Alex de Minaur

Feli is a top 50 player and cruised past Diego Schwartzman so he should win this since I don't consider Alex to be at top50 level yet.

J-M Del potro to beat Karen Khachanov

J-M in 3, Karen have to many issues to deal with here. For example he won't get that many chances to break serve. J-M have played well in Auckland before as he won the tournament in 2009.

Donna Vekic to beat Heather Watson

Donna is a small underdog here and I can't chew on that. She should be the favourite to win.

Elise Mertens to beat Monica Niculescu (rematch from last seasons Hobart final which Elise won)

Elise have had a good start this season and looks set to continue that way.

Alison Riske to beat Mihaela Buzarnescu

Alison is the better player on this particular surface and Mihaela is not experienced enough to win a match like this.

Angelique Kerber to beat Dominica Cibulkova

Angelique will keep on rolling. If she plays as she's done previously she will win this.

Emil Ruusuvuori to beat Yusuke Takahashi

18 year old Emil is on the rise. Has won the junior masters title in China and after that continued to win his first ITF pro title. He was ranked no.4 as a junior. Yusuke was only ranked 32 as a junior. Small underdog currently but it doesn't matter since I think Emil will win.

Irina Bara to beat Sesil Karatantcheva

I rate this as a 60/40 match and Irina as clearly the better player right now.

 

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17 hours ago, four-leaf said:

Bad betting by me lately. I think I'm going to give it a rest until next week unless something I feel I really have some good chance to win at comes up.

We all have our ups and downs and you did so well last week! Like CzechPunter said, chin up! :) win or lose, we are (well, most people here) are thankful for your previews, insights, predictions and effort. Thank you and good luck with your bets in the coming weeks. :cow

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0/2 yesterday, meh. Not giving up on the pre-AO just yet, however. One pick only though.

Sara Errani to beat Yafan Wang at 1.93 with Marathonbet

I don't think that Errani is going to reach her former peak, but she's on a decent comeback trail and I think that she's still better than Wang, especially now that she's out to prove a point after that doping scandal. Wang is nothing special imo and I'd have Errani at about 1.53 here.

 

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I have a small stake on a fourfold that goes like this...

Fabio Fognini to beat Daniil Medvedev at 1.80

Fabio can play really good when he wants to and he wants to play really good this week and when he does that he is the better player in this matchup.

Alex de Minaur to beat Benoit Paire at 1.90

Alex de Minaur continues to surprise until no one is surprised anymore. Anyway I got him totally wrong in his previous match. Feli Lopez had no answers at all. Alex beat Benoit last season in Sydney in 3 sets and now he is even more dangerous so I think Alex wins again. 

Juan-Martin Del Potro to beat (-1.5 sets) David Ferrer at 2.00

David has nothing to collect here except his bags and ticket to Melbourne. He's played well in Auckland before David winning it 4 times but that doesn't count when J-M is on the other side of the net and he's won Auckland once and should do it a second time.

Angelique Kerber to beat (in 3 sets) Camila Giorgi at 4.00

Angie should have a hard time in this match since Cam is playing so good right now and just blows everyone off the court and she can blow Angie away to for a set at least but Angie should be able to win this matchup for a third time since it's 2-0 head to head with Angie winning in 3 sets last time they played.

Total odds: 27.49 with Paddypower

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