richard-westwood

3.45: Epsom Dash 

 

Heaven's guest  99.03
Miracle of medina 99.01 
These two are a little clear of the rest currently at this early stage with the top rated representing fahey so warrants serious attention especially as currently both are 33/1 !! ..... the essence of value bets so easy choice for me 
Heaven's guest  10pts win 33/1 bet365
Miracle of median 10pts win 33/1 bet365 

Chester vase thurs
Cunco  99.15
The anvil  99.09 
This looks a strong bet here but can't rule out the anvil who is a big improver and o brien can never be discounted in big races ...prices 4/1 and 7/1 there's room for profit
Cunco 10pts win 4/1 pp
The anvil 5pts saver 7/1 bet365

Chester cup 
Who dares wins   99.12
Sir chauvelin  99.09 
Tough race and hard to call especially with jump horses in the mix but percentages suggest these two could run well under these conditions so the 11/2 and 20/1 look good value so worth a play 
Who dares wins  12pts win 11/2 bet365
Sir chauvelin 8pts win 20/1 bet365 

3.00 Chester weds 
Sir maximillian  99.07
Spring loaded   99.07
El astronauts   99.03
Unusual joint top rated rated here and with both drawn low at Chester they make huge appeal at 9/2 and 10/1 so ill play on this one
Sir maximillian 12pts win 9/2 will h
Spring loaded 8pts win 10/1 boyles

Churchill   99,15
Rivet    99.13
Eminent  99,12
Al wakair  99.11
Wide open race and Churchill undoubtably will be the one to beat but if the ground comes up good then undoubtably the value bet would be rivet at 33/1 ....didn't run to his best in comeback run but ran about 85% so that will have him spot on now for this and fitness is a big advantage ....wants goid ground ideally so a bit of rain before Saturday would be ideal but at 33/1 he's way overpriced anyway so easy choice for me 
Rivet 10pts ew lads 33/1

Rated this 
Dawson city  99.01
Blakemount  98.98 
Open race as you'd expect but these two are available at 33/1 and 50/1!!.....look fantastic value so easy ew bets for me 
Dawson city 10pts ew 33/1 lads
Blakemount 10pts ew 50/1 bet365 

Bookie is the enemy fella 

Desperately trying to find time to invest in this but doing 60 hours at work at the mo so just popping in when I can for time being until things settle 
4.00 ling 
Varvosisn stands out here ...recorded a 76 over CD one run back and 7f probably didn't suit last time looks nicely treated and return to 6f very muchnin favour ...8/1 with lads looks very decent value 
Varvosian 2pts ew 8/1 lads 

Spring Mile and Lincoln Double
(3 x 4) 12 bets EW Doubles
Spring Mile
Nimr 6/1
Holiday Magic 25/1
Sacred Act 9/2
Lincoln
Gabrial 22/1
Donncha 10/1
Dolphin Vista 14/1
Master Carpenter 22/1
 

Do love a good bumper race and i feel trainer Alan King would be a little disappointed if his runner in the last at Stratford cant get Competitive, the horse in question was once with Sean Doyle but has been shipped over the water and is now under the care and attention of Alan King
The 5yr old has been at Barbury Castle since the autumn of last year and has yet to score for Mr King, he has however won a couple of P2P's but this is now his third run under A.K and he'll now be expected to contribute towards his new digs.
Mr King does have another horse in this race but jockey Wayne Hutchinson would have had first choice and the fact he's keeping loyal to this fella pretty much gives us all a little clue on his chances.
17:35 Stratford - Talkischeap  Win Bet
 + Small Cheeky Rev F/c with his other runner 
 
 

Would not be a big surprise if Fahey & Hanagan won the Spring Mile and Lincoln!
Bu i  will go for a roughie e/w its the Hannon second string EMELL 33/1 1/5 6 places ran well in this last year lighter weight this time around will come on for recent run on flat interestng Jock booked Timmy Murphy he is no Graham Lee on the flat but he is very capable Jock imo. Emell looks overpriced to me and looks to have a really good place chance and who knows with a bit a luck ...

Your 33/1 on Dolphin Vista looks fantastic @richard-westwood. I quite fancy him myself at the current prices with 14/1 available on Betfred and a generous 5 places.
Dolphin Vista is still relatively lightly raced and has been gelded over the winter so is very much open to improvement. Fahey reports him working really well and the fact he's the choice of Paul Hanagan backs this up. Fahey boasts a fine record in the months of March and April with an A/E winners of 1.25 and a healthy strike rate of 17% so I wouldn't be worried about backing his first time up this season.

Just a different angle for anyone who's interested ...I rated The average win prize money each horse has won in last twelve months and compared it to the average overall to give a class rating for each horse 
Yuften  6.29
Your fired  2.20
Dream walker  1.75
Gabriel  1.65
Oh this is us 1.57 
Well you can see why yuften is now fav for this race on paper hes way above these on class ratings ....doesnt mean hes gonna win but food for thought nonetheless ...will be interesting to see how he performs as a result 

Just a different angle for anyone who's interested ...I rated The average win prize money each horse has won in last twelve months and compared it to the average overall to give a class rating for each horse 
Yuften  6.29
Your fired  2.20
Dream walker  1.75
Gabriel  1.65
Oh this is us 1.57 
Well you can see why yuften is now fav for this race on paper hes way above these on class ratings ....doesnt mean hes gonna win but food for thought nonetheless ...will be interesting to see how he performs as a result 

London wins 11/8...holding at +103.5...just waiting for a nice price one 

Anybody lookin forward for the Grand National as I am?

Picking the Lincoln winner by the trends:
22 Runners to start with:
Last 10 winners ages between 4 & 6:
This gets rid of 7 runners
Gabrial, Top Notch Tonto, Dream Walker, Emell, Heavens Guest, Gorge Cinq, Highland Colori
15 Left
9/10 Winners had won between 3 and 6 times and at least one in Class 3 or higher
We lose three more
Battle Of Marathon, Bravery, Lucy The Painter
12 Left
8/10 Winners won over a mile
We lose 4 more
Zhui Feng, Steel Train, Eddystone Rock, Withernsea
8 Left
All 8 left rated higher than 97 and carry more than 9st
7/10 Winners drawn 8 or over.
We lose 2 more
Third Time Lucky (1), Oh This Is Us (2)
6 Left
You're Fired, Yuften, Donncha, Instant Attraction, Master Carpenter and Dolphin Vista.
6/10 Winners not had prep race on AW

We lose 2 more
Yuften, You're Fired
4 Left
8/10 Winners had won a race worth at least £11,000
We lose 2 more
Donncha, Instant Attraction
 
Only 2 Left so will back both EW
Master Carpenter 33/1 Bet365
Dolphin Vista 16/1 BetVictor

 

1st and 3rd quality art wins easily

I love the Lincoln .....anything can win smothered loads of value on offer ....same this year so may as well go for gold and try for the big win .....the two that caught my eye are instant attraction who's 3 length beating in the royal hunt cup is very good good form and the the ground was probably a bit too soft that day he would be better on good soft so if he gets that ground Saturday then the current 33/1 will look a joke.....the other that catches the eye is dolphin Vista who looked a progressive type last year ..has ample staying power and represents fahey who will be aiming one at this race and p hanagan taking the ride looks very interesting too ....33/1 is way overpriced 
Dolphin Vista 10pts win 33/1 bet365
Instant attraction 10pts 33/1 bet365

820 chelm 
Noble act 72
Himalayan queen 70 
Fredericka  70
Atalante  67
Fredericka beat Himalayan queen last time but looks exposed and that was the latter's first run so could do better now ....atalante won well last time but this is much harder and first time in hcap so unknown ...Noble acts time is over 7f ...steps back down to 6f and talented claimer takes off 5lb too so respected....prices 10/1 and 14/1 on top 2 look excellent value 
Noble act 3 pts win 10/1 lads 
Himalayan queen 3pts win 14/1 lads

915 wolv tonight 
David's beauty  71
Tassaaboq  65
David's beauty has been posting some fast times of late and his 6th last time is better than it first appears hence his huge price tag of 11/1 ....that looks very good value in this open race ...I'll try ew 
David's beauty 4pts ew 11/1 bet365

Hope Mr Mullins Can win his first Gold Cup
Djakadam  
I'll be there 
Yaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!   

Brown advisory stable plate 
Ballykan and Thomas crappier have both posted really strong efforts lately and come here at least firing on all cylinders ....priced at 14/1 and 33/1 they look excellent value for a good run 
Ballykan 10pts win 33/1 bet365
Thomas crapper 10pts win 14/1 pp