SIG's AW Sprint Ratings

[SIG]

It's been a while since I've been on here  Hope everyone is doing good?

I've been busy over the past few months refining my speed ratings and the entire process of compiling them. If any of you remember my original thread speed ratings, you will recall that the ratings themselves were pretty spot on. However they were very time consuming to produce - It was taking me several hours to work through just 2 or 3 races and I working 70 hour weeks at the time. 

Unfortunately I couldn't refine the process and continue to produce the ratings at the same time (and I had a holiday to pay off and the last few payments on my bike to make!) so I kept going with the old process until around October last year. I took a couple of months off to recharge and have been back at it again since the new year. 

The last few months have been spent stripping the entire process back and rebuilding it from the ground up. It is still a WIP but this version has performed well in back testing and I am happy with how involved this set of ratings are to produce now. It takes me around 90 minutes to work through a 12 runner race, a third of that time is spent updating my database as it went largely untouched since last year. I'll update it as I go over the next couple of months and eventually we'll reach a point where I can reduce the time spent per race to around an hour.

I'll post my selections up here along with my final analysis probably the day before with any updates to follow up until the off. Any comments are welcomed as I'm posting here in the hope of generating a bit of discussion, to help get my head back in the game. I've been buried in databases and formulas for the past few months and to be honest I haven't even watched a race since October. I think it could take me a week or nine to get my old pace analyst cap back on, start to see what the numbers are really saying and noticing the finer details 

I'll run a 100pt bank with 1% stakes so we can track the P&L and see how we get on over the next couple of weeks.

Cheers, 
SIG

[SIG]

11th April 2017 - Selections

2:30 Lingfield - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. TEAM MEETING - Only one previous run. Different class of pace. Distance should suit. Hasn't run since Nov 16.
2. LADY CRISTAL - Draw in stall 2 suits. Early pace to outside suits style. Potential stamina concern at distance?
3. ATLANTA BELLE - Fastest over C&D. Wide draw doesn't suit. Expect early pace. Stamina concern at distance.
4. TAWAAFOQ - First AW run. Should find position chasing early pace setters. Unknown danger. Hasn't run since Oct 16.
5. ANGEL OF DARKNESS - Early pace. Distance should suit. Unknown danger.

Not a great deal of data to work with here and a difficult race to breakdown. I will take a chance and eliminate Team Meeting and Tawaafoq for reasons of conditioning. Neither has raced since the end of last year so I will work on the assumption that both need this run. The speed figures are tight across the top five are tight but I think the handicap will be just too much for Angel of Darkness. Hidden Stash doesn't have the same pace as the rest of these which leaves Lady Cristal and Atlanta Belle. Both have stamina concerns, the more concerning of the two being Atlanta Belle who is also drawn in a poor position out wide. Lady Cristal is drawn well in stall 2 and has two excellent horses on either side to set her early pace against. I don't think she can win from the front so I hope the jockey allows her to chase the leading pack. There is every possibility she will run out of steam over the last 100 yards but by then she should hopefully have done enough. However we will know well before then if Team Meeting has any conditioning concerns or not.

LADY CRISTAL - 1pt Win @ 20/1

4:00 Lingfield - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. BORN TO FINISH - Rear runner. Fastest over C&D. Powerful late finisher. Different class of pace. Distance should suit.
2. BALLESTEROS - Draw in stall 4 should suit. Different class of pace. Potential stamina concern at distance?
3. BERTIE BLU BOY - Draw in stall 3 should suit. Not in same class as 1 &2. Distance should suit.
4. VARSOVIAN - Fastest over C&D. Draw not a disadvantage. Not in same class as 1 &2. Distance should suit.

More data available here to work with which has allowed us to breakdown this race much easier. I have spent time trying to figure out how Born To Finish could be beaten in this one. He is well ahead of the rest of the field, the only runner who maybe has the potential to challenge him is Ballesteros. At any rate he is the only one capable of offering any opposition in this race although he has stamina concerns so against a big finisher like Born, it is potentially optimistic opposition at best. 

BALLESTEROS - 1pt Win @ 11/1

Cheers,
SIG

[Sir Puntalot]

25 minutes ago, SIG said:

It's been a while since I've been on here  Hope everyone is doing good?

I've been busy over the past few months refining my speed ratings and the entire process of compiling them. If any of you remember my original thread speed ratings, you will recall that the ratings themselves were pretty spot on. However they were very time consuming to produce - It was taking me several hours to work through just 2 or 3 races and I working 70 hour weeks at the time. 

Unfortunately I couldn't refine the process and continue to produce the ratings at the same time (and I had a holiday to pay off and the last few payments on my bike to make!) so I kept going with the old process until around October last year. I took a couple of months off to recharge and have been back at it again since the new year. 

The last few months have been spent stripping the entire process back and rebuilding it from the ground up. It is still a WIP but this version has performed well in back testing and I am happy with how involved this set of ratings are to produce now. It takes me around 90 minutes to work through a 12 runner race, a third of that time is spent updating my database as it went largely untouched since last year. I'll update it as I go over the next couple of months and eventually we'll reach a point where I can reduce the time spent per race to around an hour.

I'll post my selections up here along with my final analysis probably the day before with any updates to follow up until the off. Any comments are welcomed as I'm posting here in the hope of generating a bit of discussion, to help get my head back in the game. I've been buried in databases and formulas for the past few months and to be honest I haven't even watched a race since October. I think it could take me a week or nine to get my old pace analyst cap back on, start to see what the numbers are really saying and noticing the finer details 

I'll run a 100pt bank with 1% stakes so we can track the P&L and see how we get on over the next couple of weeks.

Cheers, 
SIG

 back SIG.   Did you get lost in the outback?  

[Trotter]

Cheers Sig ............very interesting write ups

I'll watch your two races later on with interest

I keep meaning to get back into doing speed figures and concentrating on the AW because I was pretty successful two or three years ago when I spent time on it

I think the AW does lend itself to speed figures with a relatively standard surface and largely the same group of horses running multiple times over the winter

[SIG]

20 hours ago, Sir Puntalot said:

 back SIG.   Did you get lost in the outback?  

Ha no, I was just finding that 168 hours in a week was not enough to squeeze everything in.

Things aren't quite as hectic now and the new system is saving me several hours every day so hopefully it performs like the old without too much tweaking...

Cheers,
Sig

[SIG]

11 hours ago, Trotter said:

Cheers Sig ............very interesting write ups

I'll watch your two races later on with interest

I keep meaning to get back into doing speed figures and concentrating on the AW because I was pretty successful two or three years ago when I spent time on it

I think the AW does lend itself to speed figures with a relatively standard surface and largely the same group of horses running multiple times over the winter

Cheers Trotter. I've been fairly successful as well over the past few years with my ratings focusing on AW sprints up to 7F. What really changed the game for me was when I started to analyse the pace of the runners in depth and began breaking down the races. That is when I understood the true value of a good set of speed ratings. 

Cheers,
SIG

[SIG]

11th April 2017 - Results

2:30 Lingfield - LADY CRISTAL - 2nd 
4:00 Lingfield - BALLESTEROS - 11th 

Cheers,
SIG

Edited April 11, 2017 by SIG

[SIG]

12th April 2017

5:45 Kempton - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. NASRI - Fastest over C&D. Early pace. Potential stamina concern at distance?
2. MAMBO SPIRIT - Wide draw doesn't suit. Potential late pace.
3. ENCAPSULATED - Potential stamina concern at distance?
4. COMPTON PRINCE - Potential stamina concern at distance?
5. NEW RICH - Inconsistent. Not suited to course?

Sketchy data on some of these runners and a first class handicapping effort has made this a difficult race to breakdown. There is literally nothing separating the figures across the top five. Nasri is just top of the speed rankings and has been quickest over C&D in recent times but there is a question mark over his late race stamina at this distance, especially since I expect the early race pace to come from him. I think the wide draw will be a disadvantage for Mambo Spirit and will give her all the more to do. I have stamina concerns over both Encapsulated and Compton Price and last of the top five is New Rich, who is an inconsistent sort and his recent figures at C&D put him just outside the frame. The only angle into the race I can find is that fact that the Kempton bias at 6F is slightly for low drawn front runners. Nasri is drawn in the middle but there isn't much early pace to his inside. His early pace should give him a chance to find a good position at the front and set the pace. The danger to this is that there is quite a lot of potential late race pace from a number of runners and if he is forced into a race for position early, then I see him tanking after the 5F mark and losing pace over the final furlong. 

A class 6 lottery of a race that really should be avoided but we'll give it a go. 

NASRI - 1pt Win @ 13/2

Cheers,
SIG

[Jimmy2shoes]

Some good reading fella and it's always good when people are a little more committed than others 

We all know backing winners is never easy, we get back what we put in and it's always about them and us, Bookie & Punter 

[SIG]

32 minutes ago, Jimmy2shoes said:

Some good reading fella and it's always good when people are a little more committed than others 

We all know backing winners is never easy, we get back what we put in and it's always about them and us, Bookie & Punter 

Cheers Jimmy. You make it sound like the bookie is the enemy! They've been quite good to me over the years, especially those nice folk on the exchange 

Cheers,
SIG

[SIG]

12th April 2017 - Results

Ridiculous!!! I was watching them trying to load Go Amber and knew the hold up was going to cause problems. They definitely should have reloaded all the runners or at least disqualified Go Amber as that delay (3-4 mins?) was not fair! Then finally the race starts, I see Nasri NOT leave his stall and then my live feed cut so I couldn't even watch the race! 

5:45 Kempton - NASRI - 11th 

Cheers,
SIG

[SIG]

13th April 2017

4:40 Chelmsford - Speed Rankings & Runner Analysis
1. HURRICANE ALERT 
2. FUEL INJECTION
3. AUTUMN TONIC
4. MIGHTY ZIP

The early prices and I have seriously different views on how this race will play out. My two top rated, Hurricane Alert in stall 8 and Fuel Injection on the inside both like to get to the front and should get away clean as they are surrounded by slower starters. However there are several horses in this race who like to led so I see this one going off at a blistering pace. However all of the fast starters have a stamina concern at the pace I expect this race to be run. This could suit Autumn Tonic who prefers to track the lead pack and make his move after the midway point. He is dropping down in distance after proving himself to not quite be a 6F sprinter and if he takes to the poly surface, I think his stamina advantage will prove to be key in the closing stages.

AUTUMN TONIC - 1pt Win @ 6/1

I'm also will be looking for place market or a small each way bet for my top two who are currently at 12/1 and 20/1!

Cheers,
SIG

[Jimmy2shoes]

1 hour ago, SIG said:

Cheers Jimmy. You make it sound like the bookie is the enemy! They've been quite good to me over the years, especially those nice folk on the exchange 

Cheers,
SIG

Bookie is the enemy fella 

[Snert]

I've been using speed ratings for a few years now and I only back a horse based on my ratings.

I haven't posted here for a long time as I've been otherwise engaged and have been working on my speed ratings.

Apart from the likes of the Grand National I just don't back a horse now unless my speed ratings are good.

I agree with Trotter that the a/w is ideal for speed ratings but I think this winter just finished was very poor for the quality of races.

Although I still did OK there were far too many poor quality races for my taste.

Over the years i have improved my method of working out my ratings ( I think ) and use a spreadsheet to compute them now.

I find I can do a meeting of say 4 races of interest with 12 - 16 runners in around half an hour to 40 minutes  -  I ignore any race of over one mile.

I concentrate on races up to a mile but I am thinking of Knocking this back and concentrating on the sprints - although I haven't kept a record of which races have done best for me - has anyone ?

I've found that in most races there are too many horses that have similar ratings.

The hard part is to not back anything in these races unless one of them has a compelling advantage - which is not very often - I've lost count of the number of times I've looked back on a race and thought - there's no way I should have backed anything in this race because there were too many horses with similar ratings.

The old method of looking through past form just does not work for me.

I rely on my numbers - if the rating says bet - I bet - regardless of ( almost ) anything else.

I'll be putting up any of my selections in the naps competition but they will certainly not be every day - might be only once a week.

I think the hard part is to be disciplined, and NOT to bet unless your speed ratings give a definite advantage to a particular horse.

I still bet most days even though I know I shouldn't, but I keep my stakes small unless it's a good bet on my ratings.

Remember - the bookies want you to bet on every race but you only have to bet on the races that you want to.

Cheers