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BillyHills

Scottish Grand National - Ayr, Saturday

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The jump season is fast approaching the finishing line but the big races keep coming.

This week we have the Ayr Scottish Grand National meeting and then its on to Punchestown next week and then we have the  final day at Sandown on the 29th.

 

Scottish National

A tough race to weight up and if you look at the past winners you will soon notice a couple of things. Firstly the price of the winner, although we have had the odd surprise (66/1 and 40/1) the majority have in fact come from the first half dozen in the betting.

Another interesting point is that only 3 horses have won in the last dozen years with a rating over 140 and only 2 have carried more than 11st since the great Grey Abbey lumped 11st 12lbs around here in 2004.

 

Previous Winners this century;

58f7246dee5f8_ScreenShot2017-04-19at09.3

 

Key trends

10/10 Winners previously won over 3m+.
9/10 Winners ran within 45 days.
8/10 Winners either Irish or French bred.
8/10 Winners carried less than 11st.
8/10 Winners rated 143 or lower.
7/10 Winners aged between 7-9
6/10 Winners placed last time out.

 

:ok

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Really very strongly fancy VICENTE to retain his crown i had him well backed to win the English national where he fell at the first backed him for this at 14/1  e/w when betting first opened will probably be the only one i  back in the race if he doesnt tip up must  surely go very close. There has been plenty money for it and would be no big surprize if goes off Fav on the day of the race. STD takes over as pilot the winners enclosure awaits!!!  

Good Luck All

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Going for two against the field, one of my own picks and one for the trends.

Trends:

A good place to start is the OR and then the age. We don't anything rated above 143 and nothing outside of the 7-9 age bracket. So we lose the top 7 on the card and the likes of Shotgun Paddy and 8 others who don't fit the age criteria.

Cogry, Dawson City and Premier Bond are the only ones left after kicking out those who failed to get placed last time out.

Dawson City has won once over fences, the last 10 winners had won between 2 and 4 times. Cogry only ran 6 days ago and no horse has won the race after such a short break.

Selection: Premier Bond 9/1 Coral EW

My Pick:

I've always liked first season chasers for this race and while you have to respect the tried and tested horses like Vicente, Kruzhlinen and Shotgun Paddy I prefer the unexposed types myself. I'm going for Vintage Clouds now that Danny Cook is back in the saddle. He looks well handicapped and stays well, the yard always have them at their best for Ayr and he fits the profile of a few winners from the past.

Selection: Vintage Clouds 14/1 Skybet EW

:ok

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Trained by Mr Tom George and he sends up this one sole runner from Gloucester, his runner sadly hit the floor last time out at Chepstow so we'll never know if he would have won.

His profile looks tailored made for such a track like Ayr and it also looks like Mr George has stuck him aside after his last appearance with this race in mind, he's possibly took a confidence knock but T.G would not be sending him such a long distance if that last fall wasn't far behind him.

He might be an 8yr old but he still has low miles on the clock and his owners have a keen eye for a good one and id imagine they will also have made plans for attending to see their big gelding return to action.

The trips an unknown but at the showing price i feel he's worth an E/w Bet for a race of this caliber, Jockey Adrian Heskin rides and is no stranger up-top and has won on him before.

15:55 Ayr - Battle of Shiloh.  E/w Bet 

Edited by Jimmy2shoes

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Had a look last night and quickly skimmed the field deleting horses based on weight, age, adverse Spotlight comments about trip and current form, instinct and whim, and the two I was left with were both Henderson runners

Premier Bond

Sugar Baron

The last 2 I eliminated were Dawson City and Trustan Times

So there's your first 4 ..............:drums

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On 4/20/2017, 11:16:35, Tedthewolf said:

Really very strongly fancy VICENTE to retain his crown i had him well backed to win the English national where he fell at the first backed him for this at 14/1  e/w when betting first opened will probably be the only one i  back in the race if he doesnt tip up must  surely go very close. There has been plenty money for it and would be no big surprize if goes off Fav on the day of the race. STD takes over as pilot the winners enclosure awaits!!!  

Good Luck All

 

boom-copy.png

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