richard-westwood

Sorry Richard going against you.
3.00 Sandown  INTIMATION 7/2 General
Backed her last Sunday and got to go with her again. Liking for a bit of give underfoot and all wins have come with soft / yielding. She met trouble in running last week and finished strongly. Last week was her first run since the spring and this may have brought her on a bit. Stout in form and 24% strike rate with 4yr + at Sandown.

Time to start hunting for big bucks with a Saturday double each week from now on
3.00 sand 
Aljazzi  98.88          4/1
Lincoln rocks  98.86   12/1
445 sandn
Grand inquisitor   99.01  7/1 
Exceeding power  98.98   16/1 
 
4x 5pt ew doubles all with paddyp ....gotta be in it to win it !!

1st and 3rd ...el hombre wins nicely 

Thanks both. 
Ive just looked up what arb means (!) and that is Interesting.
If I bet more than once on the same event it will only take the first wager into account  so I'd need to bet multiples of £50 on the race horse race - if that's that the arb relates to (I may be using that term incorrectly!).
The second suggestion is what I've been doing for the last 48 hours. Choosing races where their is an evens favourite, and the rest look like they're 6/1 or more. The first day it went well, and yesterday it went badly. But I suppose that's the nature of things.
yor maths concurs with mine. I figured I'd need a 30% win rate to be about even - and even is great! But when you're putting £50 bets on a losing streak could wipe it out quickly.
The last couple of days I've just gone through the day's racing - while having a coffee at work - finding odds like I've described above and putting £700 on for the day. Then see how it gets on at the end.
 

Wins comfortably by 1.75 lengths..hmmmm

In general i find 7lb claimers rubbish they are learning the trade and 99% just make up the numbers but occasionally youll get a gifted rider and then their claim is worth its weight in gold but its rare for a 7lb claimer ....generally with claimers i check the course stats as they tend to be fairly good at one course and absolutely hopeless at the next ...always worth checking before backing 

Teodoro wins it easily, despite drifting out to 8/1.... of course I put up the wrong as my nap in the BBOTD thread again. 

Disappointing first race but bounced back in the 2nd 110 pts returned been a good week overall...I'm reading +320 pts since last Saturday with the ebor still to come later....love my sis feels like shes on my shoulder now so the fun we are gonna have over the coming years is endless .....rock n roll time 

My stab at the Irish Lottery
 
Elusive Beauty EW 33/1 Bet365
 

Disappointing first race but bounced back in the 2nd 110 pts returned been a good week overall...I'm reading +320 pts since last Saturday with the ebor still to come later....love my sis feels like shes on my shoulder now so the fun we are gonna have over the coming years is endless .....rock n roll time 

515 salis 
Hawridge glory  98.85
Masarzanin  98.79
Loads of non runners has left hawridge glory well clear now in this amateur riders race ....wasn't going to bother but I'm being called in now by the 7/2 with sport bet .....
Hawridge glory 10pts win 7/2 sport bet 

Fancy Raucous myself Richard

Won on the bit........fab run 

I wont be buying Mr Findlay's book

Tough race ....well happy with that result considering ...desert law wins 14/1 

Tough race ....well happy with that result considering ...desert law wins 14/1 

1st and 2nd ...100pts returned nice doing business 

1st and 2nd ...100pts returned nice doing business 

May as well have a go in the Wilfred consolation race 245 ripon 
Rated this 
Bossipop  98.96
Terentum star  98.94 
Related    98.90
Tough race and even more wide open than the other one but bookies seem to have weighed this up correctly with top two in the top 3 in the betting ...priced 8/1 and 10/1 that's not bad considering high rating and there's a little gap to the 3rd rated horse so ill play and  it should be an interesting race 
Bossipop 5pts ew 8/1 bet365 
Terentum star 5pts ew10/1 spobet

May as well have a go in the Wilfred consolation race 245 ripon 
Rated this 
Bossipop  98.96
Terentum star  98.94 
Related    98.90
Tough race and even more wide open than the other one but bookies seem to have weighed this up correctly with top two in the top 3 in the betting ...priced 8/1 and 10/1 that's not bad considering high rating and there's a little gap to the 3rd rated horse so ill play and  it should be an interesting race 
Bossipop 5pts ew 8/1 bet365 
Terentum star 5pts ew10/1 spobet

My thoughts on this race

My first thought is that it is a race to avoid with real money
It looks very open to me
Out of your short list I rate Pipers Note above Al Qaha and Flying Pursuit and he is a c/d winner
I don't see the current favourite ( Growl ) at 5/1  winning - but I've been wrong before.
As you mention David O'Meara has a decent record in this race.
I rate Out Do better than Al Qahwa  and he is a c/d winner ( but he is an 8yo now )
I will probably have a small bet as it's on TV - it will probably be Pipers Note or Out Do.
Good luck.
 

My Ratings

Top 20 current qualifiers ...let's see what we can see ...
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 
Pref rated below 102 
Scrub 1 thru 6 
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 
Aged 4-7 scrub 15 16 18 
7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 17 19 20 
At least3 runs 
Scrub 7 and 9 
8 10 11 12 13 14 17 19 20 field narrowed to 9 
Won that season or placed lot
Lose 8 
10 11 12 13 14 17 19 20 
Donkeys don't win this so rule out anything over say 25/1 ..
Scrub 12 and 20 
We are left with 6 
10 11 13 14 17 19 
Rated
10  99.11
11  98.88
13  99.09
14  99.07
17 98.96
19 98.99
Think if we are narrowing down then losing 11 andc17 
That leaves a shortlist of 4 superstars 
Pipers note 
Al qahwa
Jordan sport 
Flying pursuit 
Will leave it at that until I've had time to assess deeper overnight but very happy with that so far 
Jordan sport fails on class ratings 
First glance the one that immediately catches my eye is al qahwa for d o meara who has an outstanding record in this race and hey presto has a runner in my top 4 priced 16/1!!...has collateral form with flying pursuit ...with last time winners having a poor record and a 7lb pull for two lengths al qahwa now looks an outstanding value bet 
Cant fault pipers note either ....only 1lb higher than when winning in june ... has a high class rating so 2 easy selections for me lets rock n roll the dice
Al qahwa 10pts ew 16/1 bet365
Pipers note 10pts ew 14/1 corals

Pipers Note always runs well in this I seem to remember, with Ruth Carr now wonder if he will run?
Will have a gander later in the week.
Good luck Richard

Let's have a bit of fun today 
335 curr 
Actress  99.10
Beckford  99.08
Us navy flag  99.07 
Sioux nation  99.07 
O brien has taken this for past 3 years and is 5 handed today ...Ryan has chosen Sioux nation so has to be respected but I prefer the filly actress who has been overlooked .,..she has been showing rapid improvement and posted a very decent time recently suggesting there's more to come and gets 3lb from the males so interesting race today
 
410 curr
Son of rest    99.24
Kimbrella   99,22
Washington dc   99,20
Another open race and hard to know which Washington will turn up because he runs stinkers quite often ....Son of rest has been rapidly rising the ranks and now takes on the big guns but thoroughly deserves a shot at a big prize ....kimbrella is looking better than ever lately and also has to have chances while in such sparkling form ....classy and very interesting race with lots of value on offer ....could go singles both races but lets have a shot at a decent prize 
Actress  13/2 pp
 
Kimbrella   7/1 pp
Son of rest  8/1 pp
2x 5pt ew doubles all with paddyp