richard-westwood

On ya GO!
 

48 quid a line ...nice pay out 

355 exe devon national 
bang open race .  Lots in with chances if they can return to old form but with lots out of sorts ive class rated this one to see who hhas the class to even get round !!
armedanddangerous  245 
finish the story    242
at 14/1 and 16/1 theyll do in a wide open race 
2 x 2 pt ew singles 
 

Wetherby & Taunton over the sticks and Wolver on the AW.
Don't like either jumps meeting today to be honest, thought Wetherby would be better but with 4 of the races with 6 runners or less it docent appeal. I see the Skeltons have been proactive again and should have a winner with Born Survivor.
Taunton is slightly better from a placepot point of view and my nap goes in the first race. I also like the look of Royal Vacation trying handicaps for the first time although its  competitive little race at 4.10.
Nap: 200 Taunton: Oscar Jane 6/5 Bet365/Skybet
Mares handicap and best to stick to those in good form at the moment. Shoofly Milly improved last time out when fitted with blinkers for the first time, she changed tactics too and led instead of being held up. That may have been the blinkers lighting her up a bit. Anyway she faltered close home and it will be interesting to see what she does here. The selection Oscar Jane also led last time so that could even set it up for something else but i reckon this mare is in the form of her life and should be followed at present. A course winner and goes in the mud and looks the more solid option.
 

 

Source: Racing Post

funny old game!!.....silvinaco and bishops road ....unbelievable price ...129 pts returned ...nice doing business 

3 winners and a nice place, happy-ish with that 

Well in richard 

Trainer says hes never ever had this horse better than hes got him now and just wants to get him to fest in one piece .....if thats true hes rated 171 rpr at best and trainer would know .....only a completely fit annie power could  even come close to that and bear in mind since april 2014 hes run 9 times and won 7 !!! ....unbelievable record ....dont think he would have liked heavy last time but still ran around 7 secs outside standard adjusted  which puts him smack on target now for a shot at the standard time on better ground ... ideally g/s .....I think his price is unreal ....fab value .....id be disappointed if hes out the frame at least 

I thought The New One made very hard work of his two wins so far this season Richard, certainly didn't look impressive anyways. Beat Stephanie Frances 2 lengths, a horse who has won at Listed level. Finished 7 lengths off Faugheen but only 3/4 length ahead of Hargam that day and beat Rayvin Black by 2 lengths last time out, a horse who has won a Class 2 handicap at Sandown.. Has to improve a lot to win the Champion for me, but with Faugheen out of the race, a lot of these "Outsiders" certainly do have to be considered now. 

Back Up - Plan B, Costing other anti post punters 
http://www.sportinglife.com/racing/report/711822/annie-enters-champion-frame

Along with these two
 

Yeh he could do that all important DNA test, and that would prove these two are related 
 
 

http://www.theguardian.com/sport/blog/2016/feb/03/jeremy-kyle-horse-racing-itv-coverage-rights
I quite like the thought of kyle doing lie detectors on jockeys as they finish races tbh ....were you trying your best there 50 lengths down on the fav ?? (BBEEEEEEPPPPP)....FECK 

435 Carlisle Hartside 13/2 Bet365/Skybet
The yard had a good winner at Musselburgh on Sunday and this one is on a decent enough mark, just a pound higher than his last win. He stays well and won't mind the ground and is quite consistent compared to some of his rivals today which are a very ordinary bunch.
 
Placepot looks tricky today and have to cover all of the 3 in the 4.05 so chances taken elsewhere.
Carlisle Pot; 24 bets

 
 

 
 

right ......lets see if we narrow this down .....horses  25 to 30 are currently not in race  reserves so omitted     leaving 24 runners 
of those 24   ....12-14 are ranked poor  virtually halving the field !!! to 10 decent horses 
14/14 winners had finished in top 2 on one of last 2 runs ...that rules out 22 and 23 ....leaving 
1  2  3 7  10  14  15 17 
last 8 winners were 5 or 6 yr olds ...theres been a 7 yr old  ...last one over 7 was 2004 so cheltenian 1  is omitted leaving 7 
2  3 7 10 14 15 17 
the only horses to carry more than 11-2 to victory had won a hcap posting an rpr of 150 + lto  2 and 7 fail 3 is war sound and he rated 149 lto so technically fails but qualifys as danger 
leaving 4 horses  10 14 15 17 
currently ratings are as follows     
forest bihan        448  
sternrubin      441 
mad jack mitton   434  
john constable    432  
well thats a fab set of results as ive already backed sternrubin and john constable !!!!............only surprise is this top rated whos currently 25/1!!...with bet365 .......i mean at first glance he looks out of it having only placed at class 3 !!!...but in this race that doesnt matter as lightly raced low rated horses have done well in the past but i read yesterday that brian ellison said that this horse forest bihan is the best horse he has ever fielded for the betfair hurdle and he expects him in time to go on to big things ......me thinks an addition to the team is needed ..... 5 pts win forest bihan 25/1 bet365 .......done ...lol
technically war sound only failed by 1 pt so isnt that bad and has chances but on balance of trends hes too high in weights but can be left in if you prefer ....its just a guide to value really 
http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/40798/willie-mullins-dominates-betfair-hurdle-contenders
 

id like to try something diff today .......call it a lesson in hcapping ....ive had a few ideas for a while and would like to share them on here and you can 
criticise and pick holes to your hearts content but im hoping in doing so maybe we can come up with a handicapping formula that can be used to win us a few quid ....
ill start the ball rolling and lets see how it progresses .....
firstly you want to work out what the horse is currently doing ......every horse has a current "number " over it which varies but each horse has a current ability number and i like to establish this as follows ......lets take a race today 245 southwell and pick it apart 
horse 1    indira    off rated 70 has finished 3 lengths down both last 2 races so  ill rate him as  current abilty    64 
horse 2   with hindsight  also  finished 3 lengths down off 70 so lets give him  also  64 
horse 3  dark diamond  won well off 60 was raised to 68 finished no where so ill rate him as good at 60
horse 4   weald of kent  won easily off 64   raised to 70  based on that last run youd have to say his ability is around 70
horse 5  thimaar   6 lengths down off 72  rate him around the 60
horses 6 and 7 are very poor so for todays test we will omit them .....
now we have an ability rough rating ...................now we want to know what the horse might be capable of under todays conditions ....there are numerous methods for this but lets for arguments and ease sake combine the rp and speed ratings .......lots of work has gone into them so may as well use 
horse 1     64   137     201
horse 2  64    147   211
horse 3   60   137   197
horse 4  70   125      195 
horse 5   60   130     190
 
so weve ruled out horses 6 and 7 .....looking at thr ratings it seems logical to rule out horse 5 as hes done nothing off this mark and isnt well weighted that leaves 4 
weald of kent is fav and showed vastly superior form over cd last time but before that had shown nothing off this mark ......could be that penny has finally dropped and good course form a def plus but time for that race lto was poor suggesting it was nothing special so im going to take him on today 
horse 3 dark diamond  won well off 61 but ran appalling off 68 suggesting the hcapper nailed him so off 67 today he looks very weak from a betting view 
so overall the two to focus on look to be the top two horses number 1 and number two 
number 2 with hindsight has the highest figure on 211 overall probably due to fact he has course form too ......looks a few lbs high but against weak opposition and with course form he looks dangerous .......number 1 indira has been running pretty consistently of late running a 64 lto but has been as high as 69 off this mark ...crucially is ridden by a 5lb claimer today so offically runs of 65 today and thats a big advantage but no course form only kempton and wolv 
quick look at betting has horse 4 as 5/2 fav .....if you believe that last run then yes he looks fairly strong today ......but weak time and poor form in past suggest lots more needed today 
horses 1 and 2 are avilable at 4/1 and 10/1 !!!.........so lets roll the dice and see what happens 
indira  2 pts win  10/1  stj
with hindsight  2 pts win 4/1 paddyp
 

ran the race back through at current weights .....charmix is a non runner but sternrubin is looking a likely starter now .....current ratings show 
sterrubin     99.36
john constable    99.33
war sound    99.27
 
so its looking very likely that the outcome of this race could hinge on the race that sternrubin last ran ....he beat john constable by 4 lengths but that one has a huge weight pull this time and has to have a good chance of reversing form .....couple that with last 10 winners having finished top 2 recently and the fact that they have a distinct class advantage in grd 3 and they look very good bets ......18.0 available on john constable on betfair .....thats a fab price ......ill go extra 5 pts on sterrubin at 12/1   and 10 ts  on john constable for a big payout at 18.0
sterrubin 5 pts win 12/1 generally  (already backed 5 pts at 14/1)
10 pts win john constable 18.0 betfair 

annililated them .....but it was always on the cards off a weight like that

Doncaster's a tricky one today. I quite like Albatros De Guye at 22/1 with bet365 in the 12.50 , I see those odds coming down quite a bit. 

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Verdict:
A very interesting contest and I think we have a good standard this year. We might even see the trends being bucked and a horse rated over 140 landing the valuable prize. My main fancy is Dolatulo for Warren Greatrex. He’s had a quiet time of it of late but you can’t argue with the form of this 9yo who ran a cracker at Aintree last time out in the Becher Chase. He should get his ground and will jump round here no trouble.
Ziga Boy is the one for the trend spotters off 132 but my second pick is the novice Le Mercurey who is still in his first season as a chaser. I think he will improve for the trip and could be very well handicapped on 142.
 
Selections; Dolatulo 14/1 William Hill  &  Le Mercurey 12/1 Ladbrokes
Past Winners;

Nice one ...it wasnt showing on my results .....on heavy ground im over the moon with any return seriously 

Well done Richard mate
Happy with my EW bet for a small profit too

Hope that wasn't a sore one richard, i have plenty spare burns cream from last year if you need any mate ok.

I thought you were right but hes been left in at final stage and only 12 runners left and hes one of them so looking promising now