richard-westwood Posted February 3, 2016 Share Posted February 3, 2016 just looking at the ante post for this ultra competitive and open race .....might be a waste but with prices on offer im prepared to take the chance at a big payout sternrubin 99.33 charmix 99.31 war sound 99.25 interesting results .........hobbs seems to be going all out to win this holding the current 1st and 3rd rated horses ...one of which is fav ...sternrubin looks a horse to follow ...has destroyed most of his opposition so far and looks well up to taking this if in the same good heart .....war sound is a very good horse also but sternrubin has the potential factor and at 14/1 he looks a very good value bet at this time .....a more speculative choice is charmix who has some decent form last but one when running away with a class 4 ....didnt perform as planned when stepped up to top class lto but he was running well and ground was atrocious that day so could be forgiven that blip.....no guarntees that he will run in this as trainer has suggested a step up might be needed but i really donr think thats the case .....he was travelling beautifully at 2 miles previously and looks perfectly weighted to take a huge part in this if he stands his ground ........currently hes being offered at 55.0!!!on betfair (generally 20/1 shot ) and at that price its worth taking the risk he runs because if he does that price would be spectacular !!!! sternrubin 5pts win 14/1 lads charmix 5 pts win 55.0 betfair Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 8, 2016 Author Share Posted February 8, 2016 On 2/3/2016, 10:48:02, richard-westwood said: just looking at the ante post for this ultra competitive and open race .....might be a waste but with prices on offer im prepared to take the chance at a big payout sternrubin 99.33 charmix 99.31 war sound 99.25 interesting results .........hobbs seems to be going all out to win this holding the current 1st and 3rd rated horses ...one of which is fav ...sternrubin looks a horse to follow ...has destroyed most of his opposition so far and looks well up to taking this if in the same good heart .....war sound is a very good horse also but sternrubin has the potential factor and at 14/1 he looks a very good value bet at this time .....a more speculative choice is charmix who has some decent form last but one when running away with a class 4 ....didnt perform as planned when stepped up to top class lto but he was running well and ground was atrocious that day so could be forgiven that blip.....no guarntees that he will run in this as trainer has suggested a step up might be needed but i really donr think thats the case .....he was travelling beautifully at 2 miles previously and looks perfectly weighted to take a huge part in this if he stands his ground ........currently hes being offered at 55.0!!!on betfair (generally 20/1 shot ) and at that price its worth taking the risk he runs because if he does that price would be spectacular !!!! sternrubin 5pts win 14/1 lads charmix 5 pts win 55.0 betfair ran the race back through at current weights .....charmix is a non runner but sternrubin is looking a likely starter now .....current ratings show sterrubin 99.36 john constable 99.33 war sound 99.27 so its looking very likely that the outcome of this race could hinge on the race that sternrubin last ran ....he beat john constable by 4 lengths but that one has a huge weight pull this time and has to have a good chance of reversing form .....couple that with last 10 winners having finished top 2 recently and the fact that they have a distinct class advantage in grd 3 and they look very good bets ......18.0 available on john constable on betfair .....thats a fab price ......ill go extra 5 pts on sterrubin at 12/1 and 10 ts on john constable for a big payout at 18.0 sterrubin 5 pts win 12/1 generally (already backed 5 pts at 14/1) 10 pts win john constable 18.0 betfair BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Betfair Hurdle Verdict: Lots in with a chance as you would expect, I’m going with the trends and supporting a couple of 5yo’s who are rated below 140. The first is Zarib from the Dan Skelton yard, he was 4th at Wincanton in good company before running on when it was all too late last time out at Ascot. This track will suit better and is a C/D winner and I think he’s still well handicapped on 134. I saw Agrapart win easily at Aintree in December and was really impressed by the way he handled the very soft ground that day. His third in the Tolworth could turn out to be a fair run and is nicely handicapped on that run. I respect the chances of Blazer if he turns up so soon after his win last week but is poor value at the moment. Selections: Zarib EW 20/1Skybet Agrapart EW 25/1 Bet365 Blazing Bailey 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 right ......lets have a bash at this race using the hcap ratings we are testing ...curr ent 31 runners 1 145 144 157 446 17 132 143 157 432 2 150 121 155 426 18 poor 3 146 140 156 442 19 poor 4 poor 20 poor 5 poor 21 poor 7 140 139 155 434 22 132 141 155 428 8 130 111 159 poor 23 125 150 155 430 9 poor 24 poor 10 135 151 155 441 25 123 141 155 419 11 poor 26 125 149 153 427 12 poor 27 poor 13 poor 28 125 149 160 434 14 131 149 154 434 29 poor 15 138 152 158 448 30 124 150 156 430 16 poor thats the base ratings done .....ill be back in a sec to apply some trends ...see if it can crack this race Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richard-westwood Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 (edited) 1 hour ago, richard-westwood said: right ......lets have a bash at this race using the hcap ratings we are testing ...curr ent 31 runners 1 145 144 157 446 17 132 143 157 432 2 150 121 155 426 18 poor 3 146 140 156 442 19 poor 4 poor 20 poor 5 poor 21 poor 7 140 139 155 434 22 132 141 155 428 8 130 111 159 poor 23 125 150 155 430 9 poor 24 poor 10 135 151 155 441 25 123 141 155 419 11 poor 26 125 149 153 427 12 poor 27 poor 13 poor 28 125 149 160 434 14 131 149 154 434 29 poor 15 138 152 158 448 30 124 150 156 430 16 poor thats the base ratings done .....ill be back in a sec to apply some trends ...see if it can crack this race right ......lets see if we narrow this down .....horses 25 to 30 are currently not in race reserves so omitted leaving 24 runners of those 24 ....12-14 are ranked poor virtually halving the field !!! to 10 decent horses 14/14 winners had finished in top 2 on one of last 2 runs ...that rules out 22 and 23 ....leaving 1 2 3 7 10 14 15 17 last 8 winners were 5 or 6 yr olds ...theres been a 7 yr old ...last one over 7 was 2004 so cheltenian 1 is omitted leaving 7 2 3 7 10 14 15 17 the only horses to carry more than 11-2 to victory had won a hcap posting an rpr of 150 + lto 2 and 7 fail 3 is war sound and he rated 149 lto so technically fails but qualifys as danger leaving 4 horses 10 14 15 17 currently ratings are as follows forest bihan 448 sternrubin 441 mad jack mitton 434 john constable 432 well thats a fab set of results as ive already backed sternrubin and john constable !!!!............only surprise is this top rated whos currently 25/1!!...with bet365 .......i mean at first glance he looks out of it having only placed at class 3 !!!...but in this race that doesnt matter as lightly raced low rated horses have done well in the past but i read yesterday that brian ellison said that this horse forest bihan is the best horse he has ever fielded for the betfair hurdle and he expects him in time to go on to big things ......me thinks an addition to the team is needed ..... 5 pts win forest bihan 25/1 bet365 .......done ...lol technically war sound only failed by 1 pt so isnt that bad and has chances but on balance of trends hes too high in weights but can be left in if you prefer ....its just a guide to value really http://www.racinguk.com/news/article/40798/willie-mullins-dominates-betfair-hurdle-contenders Edited February 9, 2016 by richard-westwood BillyHills 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BillyHills Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 On 9 February 2016 at 01:04:33, BillyHills said: Betfair Hurdle Verdict: Lots in with a chance as you would expect, I’m going with the trends and supporting a couple of 5yo’s who are rated below 140. The first is Zarib from the Dan Skelton yard, he was 4th at Wincanton in good company before running on when it was all too late last time out at Ascot. This track will suit better and is a C/D winner and I think he’s still well handicapped on 134. I saw Agrapart win easily at Aintree in December and was really impressed by the way he handled the very soft ground that day. His third in the Tolworth could turn out to be a fair run and is nicely handicapped on that run. I respect the chances of Blazer if he turns up so soon after his win last week but is poor value at the moment. Selections: Zarib EW 20/1Skybet Agrapart EW 25/1 Bet365 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arsenalfh Posted February 13, 2016 Share Posted February 13, 2016 Great stuff seems like a few of us had him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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