Saturday Racing (Inc. BetBright Chase, Eider Chase)

[richard-westwood]

Just passed this ante post through the comp

  La reve    99.12

 Kruzlinin   99.08

Sego success 99.04

Lost legend 99.03

Can't back with any huge degree of confidence but at the moment kruzlinin isn't a confirmed runner and may not run so if so that would leave la reve a bit clear here and currently is on offer at 8/1 favourite ..id expect him to go off around 13/2 on day if runs and .even though sego success and lost legend look to have ew chances around 16/1 especially if money came for them but for win the fav looks a strong bet currently

La reve 5 ptsew 8/1 bet365

Edited February 22, 2016 by richard-westwood

[BillyHills]

Quote

 

LEADING Crabbie's Grand National contender Kruzhlinin will miss next Saturday's BetBright Chase, with connections preferring to head to the Cheltenham Festival before Aintree.

The nine-year-old was a winner at Kempton in January, but will not return to the track for the Grade 3, for which he was the general 7-1 favourite.

 

Source: Racing Post

[BillyHills]

Some stats for Saturdays big races;

BetBright Chase Previous Winners

 

Eider Chase Previous Winners

 

[richard-westwood]

Eider  chase

emperors choice. 99.12

cork citizen.  99.10

blameitonmyroots. 99.10

cultram abbey.  99.06

this is such a tough race ..lots of factors effect a race like this ...

emperors choice has the best distance form but ran poorly last time and will need to be forgiven that to have a chance here ...could be he's exposed now so would struggle but if that was just a blip then up until then had looked progressive over distances and would have a big chance ...blameitonmyroots is a novice type who hasn't really done much but won well enough last time and with low weight here it suggests he could be capable of running well .. Cork citizen is another who could be capable of putting in a nice run ..culteum abbey is a dark horse ..hasn't shown anything over distances which is big negative but won well over shorter last time so possibiltys ..one to keep an eye on ..difficult race but good prices suggest a tag team is possible so I'll try that in a very difficult race

emperors choice 3 pts. win 16/1boyles

blameitonmyroots 3 pts win 25/1 pp

cork citizen 3 pts  win 20/1 bet365

 

 

[BillyHills]

3.35 Kempton: BetBright Chase

 

Verdict:

It’s easy to see why Champagne West is fancied once again, the yard can do no wrong in these big handicaps and the horse did appear to be unlucky last time out at Cheltenham. I think the step up in trip will help him and looks sure to be involved in the finish. One at better odds that interests me is Theatre Guide. He ran really well in the Hennessy and didn’t do much wrong last time behind Smad Place and Many Clouds. He was well beaten in the end but actually ran better than the bare result suggests when you look at the weights that’s day. Back in a handicap he should be able to hold his own off his current mark.

Selections:

Theatre Guide 14/1 Betway

Champagne West 6/1 William Hill

 

[BillyHills]

2.50 Newcastle: Eider Chase

 

Verdict:

I’m going to concentrate on horses who haven’t had a hard time of it lately, these long distance chases on bad ground leave their mark and horses need a decent break between races. I like last year’s winner Milborough, he has been trained with this in mind which I like and is only 6lbs higher in the weights. His run here in the Rehearsal Chase was ideal and he can go close. My other selection is Ballyculla for Warren Greatrex, he looks an improving sort to me and he could be ahead of the handicapper, the trip and ground will suit and looks a solid option.

Selections:

Milborough 16/1 Ladbrokes

Ballyculla 14/1 Betfair

[BillyHills]

Tote Scoop6

 

Mr Moonshine at 33/1 put paid to any chance of a Tote Scoop6 winner last week so the Win Fund of £224,265 is rolled over to this Saturday. The Bonus Fund is still climbing and has now reached an amazing £957,444 meaning we could be playing for £1.5 Million this time round. Don’t forget the place part of the bet either, it paid a whopping £2,429 last week and we had 22 lucky winners!

This week’s action comes from Kempton, Chepstow and on the AW from Lingfield. The feature race is 3.35 from Kempton, the Betbright Chase.

Leg 1: 2.40 Chepstow

The opening race is a limited handicap over fences. 3 miles on soft ground at Chepstow takes some getting so runners with proven stamina are key here.  Streets Of Promise won in soft ground at Towcester last time out so fits the bill perfectly. He’s up 5lbs but tailor made for something such as this. Peter Bowen won the race last year and he saddles Henri Parry Morgan who has yet to show his best since switching to fences. Ivy Gate and Wild Bill are the others to consider in a very tricky opening leg.

Selection: Streets Of Promise Bet365 (Henri Parry Morgan)

 

Leg 2: 3.20 Lingfield

Our only visit to Lingfield and we have the Group 3 Winter Derby over 10f. Won last year by Godolphin and their main hope this time is Festive Fare. Charlie Appleby is in good form and this 4yo will be fancied to gain revenge on Grendisar who beat him half a length in the trial race a couple of weeks ago. The winner looked in control that day and for what its worth I reckon will come out on top once again. My idea of the winner is Tullius, a class act on his best form but doesn’t race on the AW very often so is unexposed despite being the oldest horse in the race. Often runs well at the start of the season and is the value pick in a competitive renewal.

Selection: Tullius 8/1 William Hill (Grendisar)

 

Leg 3: 3.35 Kempton

This leg is the BetBright Chase, one of the most competitive races of the day and plenty in with chances. Champagne West is one of the market leaders and it’s easy to see why. He was a good second on his seasonal debut at Cheltenham and was travelling well next time out when ruining his chance with a bad blunder. He should go close here off the same mark. Theatre Guide has run well here at Kempton before and looks very leniently treated on 139 if you look at his run last time out. He was third to Many Clouds and Smad Place in the Cotswold Chase and this is much easier. Ziga Boy and Le Reve are others to consider in a cracking race.

Selection: Champagne West 5/1 Betfred (Theatre Guide)

 

Leg 4: 3.45 Chepstow

Another Pertemps qualifier here, a top six spot will get you in the final at Cheltenham and it’s a strong heat. We have a few chasers lining up which suggests this could be a back up plan for the Festival for the likes of Southfield Vic, Kings Palace and Pineau De Re. The top weight is the classy O’Faolains Boy who is a winner of the RSA Chase and runs off a mark of 151, if fully wound up he could go close. Today I’m more interested in The Boss’s Dream who is chasing a hat-trick and may need to win this to guarantee a run in the final. Wins at Warwick and Kempton have seen his mark go up 13lbs but will find conditions ideal.

Selection: The Boss’s Dream Paddy Power (King’s Palace)

 

Leg 5: 4.10 Kempton

A Class 3 Handicap Hurdle and it should concern those at the front of the market. Nicky Henderson saddles Clean Sheet who won twice as a novice and was then put away until his reappearance at Cheltenham last month where he got bogged down in the heavy going. He will much fitter here and should go well. Sir Ivan deserves a break he has bumped into two really good hurdlers recently and has been left on his mark of 131 here and has to be thereabouts. The other option would be Kublai; he’s won two out of his last three starts but is now 7lbs higher and goes up in grade.

Selection: Sir Ivan Ladbrokes (Clean Sheet)

 

Leg 6: 4.45 Kempton

The final leg is a 0-130 Chase and last year’s winner Comeonginger lines up again. He beat Cloudy Bob by 6 lengths and he also runs again and both can be given a chance in a wide-open affair. Nicky Henderson’s Ericht is quite capable of winning a race like this but jumping errors have let him down this season, he’s on a very nice mark now and maybe worth taking a chance on. JP McManus owns the top two and Barry Geraghty rides Cernunnos for Tom George. He won by 7 lengths at Leicester last time is certainly an improving sort, he’s only had four starts in the Britain and looks fairly well handicapped at present.

Selection: Ericht Skybet (Cernunnos)

[BillyHills]

Sundays Main Race;

Fontwell  3.20

Verdict:

A fascinating race in store and it will be interesting to see how the 4yo Adrien Du Pont gets on against his elders. I suspect anything in the frame will be considered a good prep for the Triumph Hurdle. My personal fancy is for Cheltenian on these terms, he’s always been a decent hurdler but gets no favours from the handicapper these days. He ahs found a decent opportunity here to show us what he can do. The Gary Moore runner Ubak will appeal to some as an each way bet but I also like the Wincanton form of San Benedeto.

Selection: 

Cheltenian 7/1 Stan James

(N.b. San Benedeto 9/1 Skybet)

 

[richard-westwood]

Ling 145

 

Gangoom   99.12

Take cover    99.09

Muthmir    99.07

Tricky race and muthmir is well fancied fav and obviously very talented .....only negative I can see is 4 month layoff so that makes him vulnerable and worth taking on ...top two are running well of late putting in some decent times so at 5 and 10/1 are the value option 

Gangoom 3 pts win 10/1 pp

Take cover 3 pts win 5/1 wh 

[BillyHills]

Newcastle Pot;

 

[BillyHills]

Quote

 

One at better odds that interests me is Theatre Guide. He ran really well in the Hennessy and didn’t do much wrong last time behind Smad Place and Many Clouds. He was well beaten in the end but actually ran better than the bare result suggests when you look at the weights that’s day. Back in a handicap he should be able to hold his own off his current mark.

Selections:

Theatre Guide 14/1 Betway

 

Hope somebody got on early!

[Blazing Bailey]

Some great shouts in there BH and you were bloody unlucky with Sir Ivan too!