richard-westwood

Wise Words
There is a lot of well-conducted research showing that flexible thinkers make better predictions than rigid thinkers. It started with academic Philip Tetlock’s study between 1984 and 2005 into expert political and economic judgements. He found that experts with dogmatic beliefs made worse predictions than experts without dogmatic beliefs.

It's a possibility but that's too far back .....its a speculative and skillful niche that they do particularly well with .....and a lot is very clever aiming at a particular race by connections even if the horse looks out of form .....I prefer some sort of recent form ....in essence what the computer does is run the 3 best runs nearest to conditions over and over from diff perspectives ....class...form ..speed ...weights etc and scores each horse on where its ranked then after about 7 diff ratings it works out the most likely probability of where the horse should  finish under todays conditions all things being equal ....its an educated guess machine really like a knowledgeable pro punter  friend helping you bet is like how I like to think of it lol ? 
Now the jump formula is way more inclined to recent form because most of the time if the horse hasn't finished top 6 last time then they don't seem to win so some sort of good recent run is way more important on the jumps ....I've just finished the updated jump formula so if chelt goes ahead this weekend it will be a good chance to give it a run out .....I really like it when my ratings line up with villa Chris then I know because we,are coming at a race from diff perspectives there's,a good chance the ratings are accurate so its a good benchmark to have ....I'm hoping it throws up some good bets this season ? 

It's a possibility but that's too far back .....its a speculative and skillful niche that they do particularly well with .....and a lot is very clever aiming at a particular race by connections even if the horse looks out of form .....I prefer some sort of recent form ....in essence what the computer does is run the 3 best runs nearest to conditions over and over from diff perspectives ....class...form ..speed ...weights etc and scores each horse on where its ranked then after about 7 diff ratings it works out the most likely probability of where the horse should  finish under todays conditions all things being equal ....its an educated guess machine really like a knowledgeable pro punter  friend helping you bet is like how I like to think of it lol ? 
Now the jump formula is way more inclined to recent form because most of the time if the horse hasn't finished top 6 last time then they don't seem to win so some sort of good recent run is way more important on the jumps ....I've just finished the updated jump formula so if chelt goes ahead this weekend it will be a good chance to give it a run out .....I really like it when my ratings line up with villa Chris then I know because we,are coming at a race from diff perspectives there's,a good chance the ratings are accurate so its a good benchmark to have ....I'm hoping it throws up some good bets this season ? 

It's a possibility but that's too far back .....its a speculative and skillful niche that they do particularly well with .....and a lot is very clever aiming at a particular race by connections even if the horse looks out of form .....I prefer some sort of recent form ....in essence what the computer does is run the 3 best runs nearest to conditions over and over from diff perspectives ....class...form ..speed ...weights etc and scores each horse on where its ranked then after about 7 diff ratings it works out the most likely probability of where the horse should  finish under todays conditions all things being equal ....its an educated guess machine really like a knowledgeable pro punter  friend helping you bet is like how I like to think of it lol ? 
Now the jump formula is way more inclined to recent form because most of the time if the horse hasn't finished top 6 last time then they don't seem to win so some sort of good recent run is way more important on the jumps ....I've just finished the updated jump formula so if chelt goes ahead this weekend it will be a good chance to give it a run out .....I really like it when my ratings line up with villa Chris then I know because we,are coming at a race from diff perspectives there's,a good chance the ratings are accurate so its a good benchmark to have ....I'm hoping it throws up some good bets this season ? 

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

410 newm 
Don't tell Claire  8.0 10/1 
Queenlet    7.8  4/1 
Ashky      7.5
Light of peace   7.2 
Poet lady  7.0
Tricky race  ....light of peace is well fancied but hard to assess ...a,possible improver but no guarantees so far too short ... ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and take him on 
 
 
 

Most people make a bet based on it's latest run, this means that a horse with good recent form is often overbet.
I like horses that had a poor run last time but a good run the time before, especially if a reason can be found for the poor run.

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Yes I ignored the aw run ...if you look at the previous turf form it was consistently very good ....always a bit risky but the price was decent so worth a punt?

Yes I ignored the aw run ...if you look at the previous turf form it was consistently very good ....always a bit risky but the price was decent so worth a punt?

Yes I ignored the aw run ...if you look at the previous turf form it was consistently very good ....always a bit risky but the price was decent so worth a punt?

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

410 newm 
Don't tell Claire  8.0 10/1 
Queenlet    7.8  4/1 
Ashky      7.5
Light of peace   7.2 
Poet lady  7.0
Tricky race  ....light of peace is well fancied but hard to assess ...a,possible improver but no guarantees so far too short ... ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and take him on 
 
 
 

No luck in the 2.05 at Worcester with Only Money bolting up ahead of Elios D’ Or.
A winner with Flash The Steel in the 2.17 at Fontwell returning 7 points profit on the day 
P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +77.68

Spotlight won ...Lucias 3rd at 16/1!!