Racing Chat- Wednesday 19th October

[Villa Chris]

Fontwell 2.17 

Small Bad Bob 9.75 15/2

Flash The Steel 9.7 5/1

Fugitives Drift 9.2 12/1

Small Bad Bob goes well fresh and is on last winning mark. Harry Cobden is booked to ride. Flash The Steel seems to be the class horse in the race if he can capture some of his old form . Big drop in grade and on a very winnable mark . The skeletons are going well and although has a few PU next to his name his last run was better. Goes very well fresh . Fugitives Drift could be dangerous if he can find form and is nicely priced. There’s some novices racing which are hard to rate but there’s not much to write home about so far with them .
 

Not much between top two so I’ll split stakes and go 3 points win top two

Edited October 18, 2022 by Villa Chris

[calva decoy]

1.30 Worcester - AUTONOMOUS CLOUD 6/1 eway bet365 .

One of Fergal O'Briens 5 improvers for the season now going chasing with staying chases later in the season the forte .

[Darran]

It is the Geelong Cup tomorrow morning and it features Rodrigo Diaz who probably needs to win to get into the Melbourne Cup. There are plenty of ex-European horses in the field including Surefire and 2020 Derby winner Serpentine. Earlier on the card in R5 at 4.10am Beneficio is back out and as I always do I have had a good look through the field. 

 

Fine Dine - Was in good form in better races than this last prep, but so far has yet to run well in two starts in September. Does drop in grade with connections deciding to let him carry a big weight in a lesser contest. If he does find his best form than he has a chance.

 

Aerovictory - Does enjoy this track having won here 4 times and placed 6 times in 19 starts. That includes a win here last month over 1125m and he won this race last year where he was drawn 13 of 13 and still managed to get across to lead. I expect him to either make the running or sit in behind Beneficio and no reason why he won't run well at his favourite track.

 

Oamanikka - Didn't run badly at all on his debut for a new stable at Mornington last time as he didn't get much luck in running at all. Drawn better here and should be able to settle close to the speed. One concern is that he might want a longer trip, but otherwise he has claims.

 

Cosmic Rhapsody - Pick of his form from this year are his 2nd's at Flemington in January and at Bendigo in July. Wasn't so good on his next start the same month and this is a competitive enough race for the 1^st start of the prep.

 

Hydro Star - Drawn wide although that won't bother him given he tends to come from well back as he did at Mornington last month when he flew home to finish 3^rd over 1000m in a BM70. Won a BM70 at Pakenham in August again over 1000m, but although he has only ever won over that trip he was a good 2^nd at Sale in May over 1110m so I wouldn't worry about the trip. What he will need though is plenty of luck in running, if he gets it though then he can go close.

 

Abaddon - Won his maiden over this trip and also won a Class 1 at Moonee Valley over 955m. It was that course and distance which he ran over last time and finished 4^th despite not being able to get a run in the straight. Another horse who wouldn't be out of this.

 

Grinzinger Prince - Was found to have a throat issue after his Flemington 8^th in March and has had an op since to sort it out. There should be more to come from him as he has looked useful so far, but he seems very short in the market in what is a wide open contest, especially as he will be coming from the back in the home straight.

 

Joseylin - Won at Flemington and Moonee Valley in January and February so has proven herself in at the city tracks. Was disappointing on her first 2 starts of this prep, but was much better when finishing 2^nd in the race Hydro Star was 3^rd in at Mornington. The trip looks a big issue to me though as she does look like she needs 1000m or less.

 

Donna Natalina - Good 2^nd at Mildura 1^st up before not picking up at all at Sale. Ran OK when 6^th in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley last time, but this looks a bit tough for her.

 

Hypothetical - Only had the 3 starts to date and followed a 2^nd first up at Mornington by winning at Sandown in July. A month later she won at Sale in a BM64 and did it quite nicely given she looked like she was still learning. She was set to run in the same race as Beneficio at Moonee Valley, but was scratched probably because she had a poor draw. Won a jumpout in the same week as that race so is ticking over nicely and clearly open to improvement. Looks to have an obvious chance.

 

Beneficio - No getting away from the fact she was very disappointing at Moonee Valley and to be honest we don't really know why. She has been in great form since so certainly nothing physical. My theory is that she was caught so wide after the start because so many wanted to lead that it made sense to drop her out, but I think she basically has one gear and whilst that is quick what she can't do is quicken. Therefore, when held up she wasn't able to progress when asked for an effort in the straight. Like I say that is only my theory, but clearly we know she is much better than she was able to show that night. She has got a great draw here in 3 and I would be surprised if she wasn't able to lead as the other possible front runners are out wide. It will then just be a case of if she can see them all off in the straight. Hopefully she can and she has as good a chance as anything else in the race.

 

Cantina - A promising mare who has only been out of the first 2 on 3 occasions from 7 starts. She was a very good 2^nd over 1200m at Moonee Valley last time and I do think the query is the trip as I think she needs further than 1100m. 

 

Tararua - This is the strongest race he has been in so far but has won 2 of his 4 starts to date including last time at Ballarat. Won by 3.5L that day so couldn't have done it any easier and deserves his chance in a race like this.

 

Twiggy Pop - Was pretty consistent from January to June and managed to win a couple of races including at this level at Pakenham in May. He followed that up with a 2^nd in a BM70 at Sandown. He's had just the one start at Moe this prep, but it was a good effort to only be beaten 0.2L in 3^rd especially as he didn't get a clear run in the straight. Might need luck in running again, but he does usually settle close to the speed so if he can do that it would be a big help to his cause.

 

Verdict - There are quite a few in with chances in what looks a wide-open race. I couldn't make anything as short a price as Grinzinger Prince is although he is clearly one of those in with a chance. I think at the prices the way to go is to take 3 at double figure odds. If Beneficio runs as she did in either of her 2 wins or the 2^nd at Caulfield then she is going to have a real chance of making all and she can put the Moonee Valley run behind her. Twiggy Pop gets a run with the non-runners and his profile is pretty consistent. He was a bit unlucky not to win 1^st up and should improve from that. Hydro Star will need luck in running, but he will be finishing fast and if he gets it then he will go close. He looks overpriced to me.

 

Beneficio e/w @ 14/1 with Betfred (4 places)

Twiggy Pop e/w @ 11/1 with Betfred (4 places)

Hydro Star e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred (4 places)

NB some other bookies are also going 4 places, but I think that is because they still have the reserves in the betting and once they come out the max field is 14. Thus I think they will all go back down to 3 places, but Betfred have it as an enhanced place race so it should be 4 places still.

[Villa Chris]

Worcester 2.05 

Not Available 9.7 17/2

Elios D’ Or 9.45 6/1

Magic Dancer 9.42 9/2

Doukarov 9.15 17/2

Only Money 9.05 5/2

Super competitive race. Any one of the 8 runners have a good chance of winning it’s that tight and ratings are high on all of them. Not Available drops in class and is on a good mark . 2022 hasn’t been his year but a repeat of 2021 would probably see him win this. Elios D’Or loves it around here and is consistent. Magic Dancer bolted up in this race last year and is only a few 4  Ibs higher. Could make a case for all of them. Need to catch him right but hopefully Not Available can turn up. 
 

5 points win Not Available

Edited October 18, 2022 by Villa Chris

[richard-westwood]

410 newm 

Don't tell Claire  8.0 10/1 

Queenlet    7.8  4/1 

Ashky      7.5

Light of peace   7.2 

Poet lady  7.0

Tricky race  ....light of peace is well fancied but hard to assess ...a,possible improver but no guarantees so far too short ... ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and take him on 

 

 

 

[maxironchin]

3 hours ago, calva decoy said:

1.30 Worcester - AUTONOMOUS CLOUD 6/1 eway bet365 .

Good spot. Now at 7/2 unfortunately.

[black rabbit]

Cairn Gorm     8 00 Kem/       1/10 th of a pt win    8/1

Indianapolis    4 20 Woc/       1/20 th of a pt win    28/1       -   N/R 

 

 

 

 

P/L    + 160.80  pts 

Edited October 20, 2022 by black rabbit

[kensland]

Newmarket. 

Single. 

5.20. Creatively.        9/1

Double. 

1.20. Mexicali Rose.         5/1...  3rd 

3.35. Baltic Voyage.                  10/3... unpl 

singles & double 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by kensland

[kensland]

Deauville. 

Single. 

11.50. Surrey Mist.     5/2... 3/1.         1st 

Good luck all 

Edited October 19, 2022 by kensland

[jonjo]

Nigwa in the 4.10 Newmarket is worth a punt in the place markets nearer the off. Currently 14.5 in the win market. Won her maiden last time out, the 2nd went on to win a Class 3 (Todays race is higher but thats why the price is good) The third came out and won a Novie. Hopefully Nigwa has place chances here in the 4tbp market...........just got done by a nose for 4th place?

Lamplighter is worth chancing at the odds in the 8.00 Kempton, obviously a better horse on turf but has won twice at Kempton standard/slow, is down in Class tonight having finished a fast finishing 2nd in a Class 2 at Goodwood not getting a clear run. Trading at 14 at the moment on betfair, its the 4 place market I'm interested in, no liquidity at the moment so will have to wait closer to the off...........6th

Mount Athos in the 7.30 at Kempton gets in off a fair mark for his handicap debut. Winning last time out easily giving 8lb to a 75 rated horse and gets in here of 84, could be lenient. Missed the early prices but 4.0 still looks fair.............Won easily ☺️

 

A few running today as Stable Switchers, too many to post right now.

 

Good luck today everyone.

Edited October 19, 2022 by jonjo
Results

[jonjo]

Stable Switchers that might be worth an interest in the win and place markets on betfair:

1.12 Fontwell Vengeance 8/1 Montgomery 4/1...........Nice start, Montgomery winning at 9.97 with Vengeance placed second at 2.03 in the 3tbp market or 3.27 in the 3tbp market.. ☺️

2.05 Worcester Yggdrasil 7/1.....................placed at bfsp 2.08☺️

4.20 Worcester 17/2 Golden Cosmos...............unplaced ?

5.10 Fontwell Sadie Hill 15/1.....☺️ second, place price 3.47

8.30 Kempton View From The Stars 13/2...........☺️ third, place price 3.2

Edited October 19, 2022 by jonjo
Forgot the name of the horse in the 4.20 - results update

[Sporting Sam]

Nice one kensland. Surrey mist won easily.

Worcester 1pn

WHITE HART LADY 

Win

Chase debut. Good hurdler. Yard has sent out 3/3

Two chase wins and a hurdle in October so far.

Jockey's claim mean white Hart Lady gets 12 lbs from the penalised favourite who may kick on but didn't beat much last time out.

 

 

 

[jonjo]

36 minutes ago, jonjo said:

Stable Switchers that might be worth an interest in the win and place markets on betfair:

1.12 Fontwell Vengeance 8/1 Montgomery 4/1...Nice start, Montgomery winning at 9.97 with Vengeance placed second at 2.03 in the 3tbp market or 3.27 in the 3tbp market.. 

2.05 Worcester Yggdrasil 7/1

4.20 Worcester 17/2

5.10 Fontwell Sadie Hill 15/1

8.30 Kempton View From The Stars 13/2

 

[calva decoy]

19 hours ago, calva decoy said:

1.30 Worcester - AUTONOMOUS CLOUD 6/1 eway bet365 .

One of Fergal O'Briens 5 improvers for the season now going chasing with staying chases later in the season the forte .

ran well for chase debut finishing 2nd beaten around 0.5L but was green jumping & held head high near finish , 1 of 3 tracker runs done .

[kensland]

Cheers sporting Sam. 

Couple of Fergal O'brien entries. 

Double. 

3.45.Worc. Carrigeen Kampala.     5/1.... unpl 

5.10. Font. Leading Theatre.          11/2....1st 

singles & double. 

Good luck all. 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by kensland

[Villa Chris]

20 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Fontwell 2.17 

Small Bad Bob 9.75 15/2

Flash The Steel 9.7 5/1

Fugitives Drift 9.2 12/1

Small Bad Bob goes well fresh and is on last winning mark. Harry Cobden is booked to ride. Flash The Steel seems to be the class horse in the race if he can capture some of his old form . Big drop in grade and on a very winnable mark . The skeletons are going well and although has a few PU next to his name his last run was better. Goes very well fresh . Fugitives Drift could be dangerous if he can find form and is nicely priced. There’s some novices racing which are hard to rate but there’s not much to write home about so far with them .
 

Not much between top two so I’ll split stakes and go 3 points win top two

 

19 hours ago, Villa Chris said:

Worcester 2.05 

Not Available 9.7 17/2

Elios D’ Or 9.45 6/1

Doukarov 9.15 17/2

Only Money 9.05 5/2

Super competitive race. Any one of the 8 runners have a good chance of winning it’s that tight and ratings are high on all of them. Not Available drops in class and is on a good mark . 2022 hasn’t been his year but a repeat of 2021 would probably see him win this. Elios D’Or loves it around here and is consistent. Magic Dancer bolted up in this race last year and is only a few 4  Ibs higher. Could make a case for all of them. Need to catch him right but hopefully Not Available can turn up. 
 

5 points win Not Available

No luck in the 2.05 at Worcester with Only Money bolting up ahead of Elios D’ Or.

A winner with Flash The Steel in the 2.17 at Fontwell returning 7 points profit on the day 

P/L jump season start date 8th October 2022 +77.68

Edited October 19, 2022 by Villa Chris

[azzybear]

primrose ridge 6.00

[azzybear]

senesi 6.30

[azzybear]

peacefully story 7.00 ew

[azzybear]

intervention 7.30

[azzybear]

master of chant 5.30

[richard-westwood]

19 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

410 newm 

Don't tell Claire  8.0 10/1 

Queenlet    7.8  4/1 

Ashky      7.5

Light of peace   7.2 

Poet lady  7.0

Tricky race  ....light of peace is well fancied but hard to assess ...a,possible improver but no guarantees so far too short ... ....I'll try 5pt wins top 2 and take him on 

 

 

 

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

[calva decoy]

Just having a look at Cheltenham ( not a course I do well at ) card on good to firm / good on Friday & there is a plethora of Irish horses entered unusual for the 1st meet .

I always follow N.T.Davies early & back end of the year their , he has THE NEWEST ONE in the 4.30 & Fergal O'Brien has an interesting one in my tracker called HULLNBACK in the 5.05 .

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Don't tell wins ...Ashky 3rd ....+45.00

Very well done with the winner.  The only question I have is in relation to the previous form of the horse.  As I understand it you base your ratings on most recent form.  The horse finished 11th in its previous run with the jockey saying it had no more to give.  Did you strike a line through that run for some reason? The only reason I ask is that all the main media papers were implying that the horse had something to prove.  Just curious that's all.

[Villa Chris]

19 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well done with the winner.  The only question I have is in relation to the previous form of the horse.  As I understand it you base your ratings on most recent form.  The horse finished 11th in its previous run with the jockey saying it had no more to give.  Did you strike a line through that run for some reason? The only reason I ask is that all the main media papers were implying that the horse had something to prove.  Just curious that's all.

That was on the All Weather . Her recent turf form is good . I’m assuming that’s what Richard was basing it on anyway .

[Villa Chris]

1 hour ago, calva decoy said:

Just having a look at Cheltenham ( not a course I do well at ) card on good to firm / good on Friday & there is a plethora of Irish horses entered unusual for the 1st meet .

I always follow N.T.Davies early & back end of the year their , he has THE NEWEST ONE in the 4.30 & Fergal O'Brien has an interesting one in my tracker called HULLNBACK in the 5.05 .

I’m expecting a lot of non runners unless some rain arrives . 

[richard-westwood]

25 minutes ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well done with the winner.  The only question I have is in relation to the previous form of the horse.  As I understand it you base your ratings on most recent form.  The horse finished 11th in its previous run with the jockey saying it had no more to give.  Did you strike a line through that run for some reason? The only reason I ask is that all the main media papers were implying that the horse had something to prove.  Just curious that's all.

 

2 minutes ago, Villa Chris said:

That was on the All Weather . Her recent turf form is good . I’m assuming that’s what Richard was basing it on anyway .

Yes I ignored the aw run ...if you look at the previous turf form it was consistently very good ....always a bit risky but the price was decent so worth a punt?

[richard-westwood]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

Very well done with the winner.  The only question I have is in relation to the previous form of the horse.  As I understand it you base your ratings on most recent form.  The horse finished 11th in its previous run with the jockey saying it had no more to give.  Did you strike a line through that run for some reason? The only reason I ask is that all the main media papers were implying that the horse had something to prove.  Just curious that's all.

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

[MCLARKE]

1 hour ago, The Equaliser said:

As I understand it you base your ratings on most recent form. 

Most people make a bet based on it's latest run, this means that a horse with good recent form is often overbet.

I like horses that had a poor run last time but a good run the time before, especially if a reason can be found for the poor run.

[The Equaliser]

2 hours ago, richard-westwood said:

Computer prioritises recent run but I type in all 6 previous runs then the computer takes its best guess on what the horse shoukd be able to do today....its,a lot of calculations so I'm so glad the computer does it .....15 to 20 per horse x 20 horses is 400 calculations....gulp ?

I have noticed that our shrewd members @Tedthewolfand @black rabbit have been quite successful in taking into account what horse(s) did in the previous year's race(s) despite poor recent form.  Do you think that it may be worthwhile to pop the last year's race result details into your sausage machine to see if it may throw up something of value for the day's race under review?