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salmonman

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  1. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 31st   
    Tuesday was a mini bump back to earth after the high of Saturday, but an injury time goal against us was always going to happen at some point. More on that in the previews. With Step 3 entering the FA Trophy the focus is on the 3 National League's and I have 5 bets.
    Hartlepool v Torquay
    The live BT Sport game sees 1st v 4th and Hartlepool are yet to lose so far this season so an interesting game on paper. At the risk of upsetting Hartlepool fans again (for some reason they got upset with me saying Notts County are the biggest team in Non-League last week), I am not sure Hartlepool are quite as good as their form suggests. For a start they have had a pretty kind fixture list so far and they haven't always played that well. I put them up to beat Maidenhead the other week and they won 4-0, but Maidenhead should have been 4 up by half time and they managed to get away with it. On Tuesday night they were good in the 1st half against Altrincham, but were poor in the 2nd half and Alty missed a penalty. Speaking of late goals, Torquay have been the masters in that so far this season with 3 of their 5 victories on the back of goals in injury time. They also scored a 90th minute goal in their 4-1 win against Aldershot on Tuesday night. They are looking capable of a top 7 finish this season and I think there is more to come from them. They look over priced at 13/5 with Betway and I would have them no bigger than 7/4 myself.
    Wrexham v Sutton
    Wrexham don't seem to have solved any of their issues of last season. They still can't score goals and they aren't looking great at the back either. They were fortunate to beat Boreham Wood on day 1 and their other win was against Yeovil who are yet to win. Although Barnet welcomed some of the players who were missing against Leiston it still wasn't a great effort to draw in 0-0 where yet again they looked poor up front. Sutton have had a great start to the season winning 4 of their 1st 5 games. Now they have only beaten Aldershot, Maidenhead, Weymouth and Yeovil, but Wrexham don't look any stronger than that lot and they might well only need the 1 goal to win. Betway are biggest again at 14/5, but again I would be happy to take around 15/8.
    Gloucester City v Chester
    Gloucester have had a couple of weeks off since beating Blyth 6-1 as Covid in the Gateshead camp forced their game off last Saturday. In that time Chester limply went out of the FA Cup to Marine although they did bounce back from that when beating Curzon on Tuesday night. For me though Gloucester look a better team than Chester this season and I think the 6/4 is a good price as they should be clear favourites in my view. No doubt Asante will be keen to score against his former club as well.
    Southport v Boston
    Boston should have hammered Guiesley on Tuesday night. I watched the game and it was about as one sided as an encounter as you will ever see. Poor finishing and superb goalkeeping meant the only goal was a free kick and then with their only shot on target of the game the away side scored in the 95th minute. Boston played some great stuff though and they looked possible title contenders to me. Southport have picked up 7 points from their 3 games so far, but this is easily their toughest test yet and I think Boston will prove too strong.
    Oxford City v Hampton & Richmond
    The home side have been very profitable for us in the last couple of weeks with their wins over Tonbridge and Weymouth in the FA Cup. Granted Hampton's only point in the league so far was a decent one against Dartford, but Oxford are starting the season very strongly and evens is just on the right side of value for me.
    Torquay 2pts @ 13/5 with Betway
    Sutton 2pts @ 14/5 with Betway
    Gloucester 2pts @ 6/4 with Bet365
    Boston 2pts @ 8/5 with Betfred
    Oxford City 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  2. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 27th   
    The amazing start to the season continues and there is nothing I like more than landing some chunky numbers especially in the FA Cup. To get 5 upsets in the one round is better than I could have realistically hoped for and again highlights what massive value there is in the FA Cup whereas other tipsters run scared of it. Saturday's results mean that I have staked 63.5pts so far and the profit is 73pts. Obviously that figure wont be the same for everyone (it isn't even what I will have made from the singles as I can't get on with BetVictor), but that is to the prices I put up. 
    Anyway onto Tuesday night and I am avoiding a tricky looking National League fixture to focus lower down with 3 bets which are shorter odds than Saturday, but hopefully profit will be made.
    Boston v Guiseley
    Fair play to Boston for winning on Saturday despite having had a couple of weeks off due to Covid especially as their manager was concerned about fitness levels. That was a good win against a decent enough Telford side and hopefully they can follow that up here. Guiseley have only played 2 league games so far and beat Blyth easily (doesn't say much) and then lost to Hereford 1-0. Boston are better than Hereford and Guiseley also lost in the FA Cup to FCUM on Saturday. I'd make Boston odds on to win this as they ought to be in the promotion hunt come May and Guiseley look more mid-table to me. 
    Biggleswade v Coalville
    Coalville have looked very impressive so far this season. They are unbeaten in the league and have won 4 on the bounce. Not only that but in 7 games they have scored 21 goals and let in just 5. They put 4 past Rushden on Saturday and they look like they will be in the promotion hunt for sure. Biggleswade have only won twice so far this season and both of those came against two of the lesser sides in the division. I'm surprised Coalville aren't odds on for this.
    Walton Casuals v Met Police
    Met Police have put in some good performances so far this season and their only defeat came against a good Swindon Supermarine side. Walton have picked up just 4 points in their first 5 games and they will be one of the teams in a relegation battle at the end of the season. Odds against for an away win looks a fair price.
    Boston 2pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Coalville 3pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Met Police 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
  3. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 24th   
    Shame about Taunton who were the better side at the time they conceded and then they went down to 10 men when it was just 2-0. Still when you have 5 winners at the prices I put them up at it is always going to be a very good day. I say it every year, but I love punting on the FA Cup because it gives you a chance to land some lumpy numbers. 
  4. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    Darran you absolute legend, thanks very much. Good stuff from dawwe92 aswell, nice one lads.
  5. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 18th   
    More profit on Tuesday to continue the good 1st month or so of the new season. Most of my bets are usually in the National League, but nothing really stands out as a bet this week, so I have 3 bets at Step 2 and 1 at Step 3. Also
    Gloucester City v Blyth Spartans
    Blyth would have gone down last season if the season had of ended and they already look like they will be in a relegation battle this time around as well. I opposed them last week and Telford should have put the game to bed well before they gifted Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute. They lost in the FA Cup on Wednesday to Marske who are two levels below them and they managed just two shots in the whole game. I have watched all 180 minutes of Gloucester's two games in the league so far and my thoughts pre season that they would be title contenders have been proven by what I have seen so far. They are playing some attractive football and scoring some quality goals. I think they will be suited by their 3G pitch this season as it suits the type of football they are playing and the team is miles better than the Blyth one on paper. It really should be a comfortable home win and the 17/10 on the -1 handicap makes plenty of appeal. I think it is worth covering the -2 at 15/4 as well.
    Oxford City v Tonbridge Angels
    Tonbridge had a slightly surprising opening day win at Billericay, but they were beaten by Hungerford on Saturday and although they are through to the FA Cup 4th Qualifying Round they have had quite easy games against Farnborough and Chichester and were hardly convincing in either. On the other hand Oxford have looked pretty good so far in beating Bath 2-0 on the opening day and then getting a point at Chelmsford. What was particularly eye-catching though was their FA Cup win over Tamworth on Tuesday night. They could both have been at the same level this season and Tamworth are well fancied again to win their league so for Oxford to beat them 6-1 is some statement. If they are in that short of form again here it should be a home win.
    Needham Market v Bromsgrove Sporting
    Needham are still unbeaten in the league and are looking pretty decent and scoring plenty of goals as well. I think they look a bit of value here against Bromsgrove as they are the outsiders and they should be much closer together. They are doing OK and have only lost 1 game, but they aren't quite hitting the heights of last season at the moment. At 12/5 the home side look a good value bet.
    Gloucester City 3pts -1 @ 17/10 with Betway & 1pt  -2 @ 15/4
    Oxford City 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Betfred
    Needham Market 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfred
  6. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 13th   
    Not great on Saturday especially with the way Telford decided to gift Blyth an equalizer in the 90th minute having dominated the game which basically would have meant we would have broke even. At this stage we have no FA Cup prices so for now it is 3 bets in the National League and 1 in the Pitching In Isthmian Premier.
    Halifax v Yeovil
    The away side have been disappointing so far this season. I originally thought the opening day 2-2 draw at Kings Lynn was a decent effort, but then when you start working through the form lines of that, the draw at home to Wealdstone and then they were 2nd best against Wrexham on Saturday. I don't think they have got anywhere near their best from last season yet and they face a very tough trip to Halifax on Tuesday night. They deservedly beat Dagenham on the opening day and then lost 2-1 to ante-post favs Stockport. On Saturday they got a very creditable draw at Boreham Wood and given they haven't lost at home since last October a point was as good as they could hope for. They had the better chances in the match as well. I would have Halifax as favourites for this so the 21/10 with Skybet if you can get on with them is huge, but the 15/8 will William Hill is more than acceptable as well.
    Wealdstone v Stockport
    Odds against about Stockport looks huge here. As I mention above I am not sure the draw at Yeovil looked as strong as it did at the time and they were woeful against Dagenham on Saturday. They didn't really have a serious chance until pretty much the last kick of the game and I don't think Dagenham were even that good themselves, but they fully deserved the win. Stockport have done well in their last two games after having a surprising first day defeat and they ought to be in a different class to the home side.
    Woking v Dagenham & Redbridge
    As I mention above I wasn't impressed by Dagenham on Saturday although they clearly deserved the 3 points. I know Woking lost 4-0 in the end on Saturday, but 3 of those goals came late on when they were chasing the game and they certainly were in the game until that point. They were really good in their only home game of the season so far against Solihull and I would have them around the 6/4 mark rather than the 13/5 they are with Bet365.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    I put the away side up two weeks when this game was called off and I am still going to go with them here. After two heavy defeats Kingstonian seem to finally hitting their stride and although their 1st two wins were against lesser sides the win over Hornchurch on Saturday was a step up. To be fair Enfield had a good win themselves, but I just can't let the away side go unbacked at Bet365's 23/10 which is too big.
    Halifax 2pts @ 21/10 with Skybet (15/8 with William Hill)
    Stockport 3pts @ 11/10 with BetVictor
    Woking 1pt @ 13/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 23/10 with Bet365
     
  7. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 10th   
    It has been a good couple of weeks with plenty of big price winners landed. Hopefully that can continue on Saturday as I have 7 bets across the divisions.
    Chesterfield v Woking
    The home side went ahead via a penalty on Tuesday night, but Hartlepool got 2 goals back to give us a winning selection and I am going to oppose Chesterfield again here. Woking have made a really good start to the season winning both games and they are making a similar start to the one they made last season. They deservedly beat Solihull and then put in the perfect away performance when beating Weymouth on Tuesday 1-0. That came from a set piece and they were dangerous from those all night. I can see them causing Chesterfield issues here and they look over priced at 12/5 to make it 3/3.
    Dagenham & Redbridge v Wealdstone
    This is the live game on BT Sport and I think the away side are a big price at 16/5. Dagenham have to be disappointed with their efforts so far. They weren't great at Halifax last week when losing 2-0 and then they lost 2-1 to Barnet having taken the lead. Granted they were down to 10 men, but given Barnet had been stuffed by Eastleigh on the opening day of the season that was not good. They should be capable of better, but clearly there are gelling issues at the moment. Wealdstone's opening day game was called off, but on Tuesday they got a very good point at Yeovil in a 2-2 draw. I think they will fancy their chances here given Dagenham have been misfiring.
    Maidenhead v Hartlepool
    Kings Lynn left it late to beat Maidenhead as they came from behind twice and then added the winner in injury time, but Maidenhead's two goals came from penalties and it was a deserved win for the away side in the end. Hartlepool are already shortening for this game and it is no real surprise and I think they should be odds on to make it 3/3 against a Maidenhead side who look set to struggle this season.
    Solihull Moors v Kings Lynn
    Happy to stick with Kings Lynn again here. They have now scored 5 goals in their 2 games and although Solihull beat Wrexham on Tuesday night, they didn't perform great and as mentioned above they were poor against Woking. Kings Lynn are full of goals and I think they have a much better chance than the odds of 15/4 suggest.
    Blyth Spartans v AFC Telford
    Blyth would have gone down if the season had ended and even after 1 game it already looks like they could be in trouble this time around. They were easily beaten 4-0 at Guiseley on Tuesday night and with Telford impressing in a 3-0 win over Brackley this ought to be an away win. Telford do seem to have strengthened well over the break and they could be outside candidates for the play-offs.
    Enfield Town v Leatherhead (Pitching In Isthmian Premier)
    Not sue why Leatherhead are such a big price here. Take out the 7-0 horror show against Bowers & Pitsea and they are having a good season so far and it was a superb effort to edge out Worthing in a 7 goal thriller on Tuesday night. Enfield had two easy games to start the season, but their weakness are showing in their last two games losing 4-1 and 5-2. 21/10 looks a big price for an away win.
    Hednesford v Stratford
    Just a handful of games into a 3 year contract and Hednesford decide to to sack Andy Morrell. That's a surprise, but they have had a shocking start to the season. They have 1 point, scored just once and conceded 9 goals in 4 league games. That is not good and Stratford have won 3 of their 4 league games having scored 9 goals in the process. Their one defeat came to current top of the table Needham Market and I am happy to take the 7/5 about them beating a Hednesford needing a manager.
    Woking 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 16/5 with William Hill
    Hartlepool 2.5pts @ 6/5 with BetVictor
    Kings Lynn 1pt @ 15/4 with William Hill
    AFC Telford 2.5pts @ 11/8 with Betfred
    Leatherhead 1pt @ 21/10 with Betfred
    Stratford 2pts @ 7/5 with Bet365
  8. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    Fantastic tipping once again Darran, almost hit the jackpot again aswell but the Lucky 15 returned a nice amount.?.
  9. Like
    salmonman reacted to bromsgrovegreen in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    Great tipping!
    I took hartlepool and kings Lynn singles and a double after reading your write ups
    I was at the bromsgrove  v Tamworth game, once again an absolute belter, bromsgrove letting slip a 2-0 lead going onto the 90th minute partly due to losing the spine of the side through injuries in the second half.Anyone that finishes above Tamworth will be top three on this evidence whilst Bromsgrove will also be around the play offs if they can get everyone fit imo 
     
     
  10. Sad
    salmonman reacted to StevieDay1983 in BillyHills - R.I.P.   
    To the Punters Lounge family,
    It is with deep regret that we must share some tragic news with you all. BillyHills aka Graham Sarson sadly passed away over the weekend after suffering a heart attack. Graham was a hugely popular figure within the PL community and had become a much-loved person amongst the staff team.
    Graham has been a part of Punters Lounge for a number of years and has played a key role in contributing quality content to the forum and site. His horse racing tips were the stuff of legend across the gambling industry and his management of the Last Man Standing and Tipster Competitions provided many of us with some fun and laughs over the years.
    Since the devastating loss of Punters Lounge owner Paul Ross, Graham has played a pivotal role in helping the site to remain active and keep growing in the way Paul wanted. Our thoughts and love go out to Graham's wife Suzy, his family, and his friends at this awful time.
  11. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    Great to land another big number on Saturday with Eastleigh romping to a 5-1 victory over Barnet. Barnet were the team I wanted to back to go down, but there is still no sign of prices sadly and obviously it would be shorter than it would have been after that defeat. Games are going to come thick and fast now and I have 3 bets in the National League plus one bet in the National League South as the Step 2 get their seasons underway after their FA Cup games on Saturday.
    Chesterfield v Hartlepool
    I was keen to oppose Chesterfield on Saturday and I am keen to oppose them again. I think missing out on playing on Saturday could be a negative thing as it extends the amount of time since they last played a competitive game and Hartlepool got their eye in on Saturday when beating Aldershot 2-1. They certainly look the stronger side on paper and they played pretty well at the weekend. As I mentioned in Saturday's preview Chesterfield have only played 3 friendlies and they look underprepared for the start of the season.
    Maidenhead v Kings Lynn
    Maidenhead were poor on Saturday as they lost 3-0 to Sutton and as much as Alan Devonshire always seems to work his magic in getting them to survive he could struggle to do that this time around. They survived by less than a point on PPG last season and there is a strong chance they would have gone down if the season continued. I thought Kings Lynn did well on Saturday against Yeovil and it showed great character to come back from a goal down twice. They carry plenty of threat up front and I think the Maidenhead defence could struggle to contain them. I am really surprised they are as big as 14/5 as I would have it at least a point shorter.
    Solihull v Wrexham
    Solihull were outplayed by Woking on Saturday and that has to be a concern going forward and they face a really tough first home game of the season against Wrexham. Wrexham had a tough first home game themselves against a very good Boreham Wood side and they edged it 2-1 and I certainly think they will have a better season they did last time around. Indeed, this game seems to be priced up on last seasons form rather than what happened on Saturday and their respective squads. 12/5 looks a big price about an away win.
    Maidstone v Welling
    Welling suffered a big cup upset on Saturday losing 2-0 to Sheppey a team 3 leagues below them. That is hardly a good start to the season and they could struggle here against a Maidstone side who beat Dover 3-0 in their last pre-season friendly game and won at Hendon in the FA Cup on Saturday. I wouldn't want to chase the price down too much, but it really would take some turn around from Welling's effort at the weekend to get an opening day 3 points here.
    Hartlepool 2pts @ 15/8 with Bet365
    Kings Lynn 2pts @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Wrexham 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365
    Maidstone 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
  12. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 6th   
    St Ives v Lowestoft ( Southern Premier Central)
    Adding Lowestoft to the bets after being alerted to the fact that the St Ives manager has tested positive for Covid and that at least 6 players are showing symptoms and have taken tests although wont find out the results until Wednesday. At this stage the league are forcing St Ives to play the game, which quite frankly is crazy in my view, although I guess they might see sense tomorrow and call the game off. Anyway if it does go ahead clearly St Ives are going to be pretty weak and I guess hey might even struggle to get a whole team out, but that is only a guess at this stage.
    Lowestoft 2pts @ 5/4 with Betfred
  13. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > October 3rd   
    At this stage we don't have any prices for the FA Cup matches which sees the Step 2 sides make their seasonal return so at the moment the focus is on the opening day of the National League season and I have one bet at Step 3.
    Barnet v Eastleigh
    There is been huge changes at Barnet since they lost to Notts County in the play-offs in July. There has been a change in manager as well as big changes in the squad. Peter Beadle is the new manager which was a surprising choice. I know he used to play for them, but he hasn't managed since Hereford sacked him a couple of years ago and it does strike me as if Barnet have gone for the cheap option. They are one club we know have suffered badly with the current situation and the squad doesn't look a strong one. I am surprised they have been given odds on quotes for this game. I don't think Eastleigh are going to be going to promotion or anything like that, but to me they have the better side on paper and haven't had such a rushed preparation for the new season. They look a good price at 14/5.
    Halifax v Dagenham & Redbridge
    Halifax had an amazing season last time around as they defied those of us who thought they would go down by reaching the play-offs although I think they were fortunate in that regard that PPG was used. I can't see them repeating that feat this season and they look a bottom half side to me. Dagenham will be hoping to be in and around the play-offs and they have a squad capable of doing that especially with McCallum up front who is always going to be a threat. 2/1 looks a good price in my view.
    Wealdstone v Chesterfield
    In some ways it is a shame that Chesterfield are playing Wealdstone on the opening day because I think Wealdstone will struggle this season, but Chesterfield are coming into this season under prepared. They have only played 3 friendlies and some of their players haven't even got a 90 minutes in their legs. It could take them a few games for them to get into gear. Also the manager didn't seem overly happy with the squad he has as he talked about it would be great if they could get more players in, but money is tight. Wealdstone caused a bit of a shock by winning National League South last season, but they deserved it. I like their manager and it will be interesting to see how he gets on for the first time at this level. They have signed Maldon & Tiptree's frontline from last season and although that is 3 steps below this one they did look class players as they showed in the FA Cup so I think they can prove up to this level. It does also show though that they are having to look to promote players up the levels which might not be good for their long term prospects. This though is a good time to be playing Chesterfield and they are good enough to beat them on Saturday.
    Enfield v Kingstonian
    Fair to say that even after just 3 games that I am not massively liking my bet on Kingstonian for the title. They lost to both Cray and Worthing by 4 goals although they played well in defeat to Horsham in the FA Cup and did get a last minute winner on Wednesday night. Hopefully that 3 points will give them a boost going into this game. Enfield did win their first two games, but I think they got lucky with who they played and they were undone by Bishops Stortford in midweek. To me there shouldn't be as big a difference as there is in the prices so the away side have to be a bet at 100/30.
    Eastleigh 1pt @ 14/5 with Bet365
    Dagenham & Redbridge 2pts @ 2/1 with Bet365
    Wealdstone 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365
    Kingstonian 1pt @ 10/3 with Betfred
  14. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Ante Post 2020/21   
    So finally, it seems like the National League season is going to get underway on Saturday with the North and South leagues starting on Tuesday. Who knows if they will get through the season though and I'm not certain they will. Usually I don't write the ante-post preview so close to the season starting, but I obviously wasn't going to write anything until we had as much certainty as possible. It does mean that it will be shorter than usual though especially with Saturday's games needing to be looked at.   National League The two County's head the betting with Stockport just in front of Notts. I prefer Stockport out of the two of them, but I don't think either offer any value at their current odds. Stockport are the money men of the division this season and they have a squad full of quality. Jim Gannon is a good manager and now he has a big budget to work with there is every chance he will be able to get them back into the Football League. The only issue is the price really for me as 4/1 is tight enough although I certainly wouldn't put people off sticking them in multiple bets especially if you are perming teams up.   Notts County let themselves down badly in the play-off final against Harrogate as they defended terribly in the first half and just couldn't contain a rampant Harrogate. They obviously come into this season in much better shape than they did last season where Neil Ardley barely had any time to get a squad together because of the off the field issues, so the fact they are more settled this time around is a plus. It is hard to not see them challenging, but the big issue for me is that losing play-off finalists tend to really struggle to get promoted the following season. Most don't do as badly as Fylde did last season, but the likes of Tranmere and Luton also suffered hangovers from losing the final. Tranmere's slow start cost them when they were a better team than Macclesfield and given how fast games are going to come, I am not sure any side is going to be able to recover from a slow start especially if the season has to be stopped at some stage.   Every other team is in double figures. Yeovil should go well again although they didn't end the season well before lockdown and they don't strike me as possible winners. Dagenham & Redbridge should go better than they have for a while and Paul McCallum is clearly a big signing. Not sure if that will be enough to see them win the title, but they are play-off contenders. I fancied Wrexham last year and they were shockingly poor. They will be better this season and with two Hollywood stars looking to take them over they could have plenty of money at some stage. These things can take their time though so it could be a while before the takeover actually happens and they are ones to keep an eye on at the moment. Plenty of changes at Solihull and they look short enough in the betting at the moment, but they were keen to get the season started so the funds are there which could have a part to play. Halifax look really short in the betting and I can't see them matching last season's play-off finish let alone win the title. Chesterfield seem to be priced up on reputation and they don't really excite me much either.   We have seen some big priced winners of the league in recent seasons and I am going to take a couple at long odds. When Boreham Wood reached the play-off final they lost their best players the following season and nearly went down. They bounced back last season though as Luke Garrard built another strong side to see them in the play-offs again. Crucially this time around though is the fact they haven't lost their best players and I am amazed no league club has purchased Tshimanga after the great season he had after moving from Oxford City. I think they look poised to go well again and given Luke has got his team into the play-offs twice now I see no reason why he can't get them close again. They look over priced at 20s.    I was on Bromley last season and it was looking like a really good bet for the first few months, but their form went south and they struggled to win a game. I do wonder though if they might have still been able to finish in the play-offs if the season had been able to finish. They were pretty quiet for most of the summer, but they have added well the closer we get to the start of the season and the budget is the same as last time. They have been forgotten about for me and at 40/1 I have to get involved.   I like to get involved in the relegation market and although I got it badly wrong last season, it has been a profitable angle. I have a team in mind, but because of Macclesfield the relegation markets have been taken down. If they get put back up then I will likely be getting involved.   Boreham Wood 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with Bet365 Bromley 0.5pts e/w @ 40/1 with Bet365   National League North It is frustrating that only 3 bookies have priced up the Step 2 leagues and Bet365 are win only so we are pretty limited as per the Step 3 leagues. York are the favourites at 5/2 which is no real surprise given I think they would have won the league if the season had been completed. Steve Watson has strengthened well in between the play-offs and the season starting and they should be fighting it out for the title again. The problem is the price doesn't offer much value given how competitive the league looks like being. Fylde are the only other team in single figures, but I have my doubts about how well they will go this season. They had a horrid season last time around and they might take a season to recover. Boston and Brackley are always in play-off contention, but I am not sure they will turn that into champions. Chester looked like they wouldn't have much money, but the fans have put in a lot of cash which has helped them although I can't see them winning the title.    At the prices there are two sides I like. Spennymoor had a slow start to last season, but I think they would have been in the play-offs if the season had ended. They have recruited well over the summer and at 10/1 they look a solid each-way bet. The other team I like, and I can't believe I am writing this, is my own side Gloucester City. I'm not sure I ever thought we would be possible title contenders at this level, but for the first time in a long time we have a budget and team capable of competing at the right end of the table. On paper I think Gloucester have one of the strongest in sides in the division and signing the likes of Akwasi Asante from Chester shows the intent being shown. Asante does fitness issues, but when he is on the pitch he will score plenty of goals. My main concern is the manager as this is James Rowe's first job and he did struggle last season, but now he has the team he wants so there can be no excuses now. I think the doubts about him being up to the job is factored into the price though as 20/1 is too big for the side we have. The fact Gloucester are back at their own ground for the first time since 2007 is a big plus as well even whilst there aren't any fans.   Spennymoor 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill Gloucester City 0.75pts e/w @ 20/1 with BetVictor   National League South I honestly think this is pretty much a 3 horse race between the top 3 sides in the betting. Dorking and Billericay are also in single figures and will probably be hoping to get involved, but I am not sure either side have the manager capable of taking them to the title. Ebbsfleet went very much leftfield for their manager getting Dennis Kutrieb from a 5th tier side in Germany. They have signed plenty of players in the close season and look to have a strong side on paper. The big unknown is the manager though and for that reason I can't back them at this stage. Havant had the squad to win the title last season and their home form cost them big time as they kept dropping silly points at home. They have a good squad again and it will be interesting to see if the new 3g pitch helps their home form. I however prefer the side who knocked them out of the play-offs in July, Dartford. When Steve King took over they were looking like they might be in a relegation battle, but they were superb after he came in and it was a magnificent achievement to guide them into the play-offs. Regular readers will know I am a huge fan of Steve King as a manager and his record speaks for itself. I think he has improved the squad with his signings and they have a big chance of claiming the title.   Dartford 2pts @ 6/1 with Bet365   I am also going to add Worthing to the bets in the Pitching In Isthmian Premier. They have got off to a flying start and are looking really good so I want them onside at 5/2.   Worthing 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
  15. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 29th   
    Yes, superb work again darran, really appreciate your tips and write ups, so close to hitting the jackpot with Grantham but thankfully i had the super yankee on aswell so 10/1 returns on that was nice aswell as all the singles.
  16. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 29th   
    Decent profit on Saturday so hopefully more of the same of Tuesday night where I have 5 bets across the 4 Pitching In divisions.
    Grantham v Stafford
    Going to try Grantham again here despite the loss on Saturday. Stafford have lost both their first two games and are struggling to get going at the start of the season. Obviously it wasn't great that Grantham lost, but it was a late penalty which meant Atherton got the win and they do look stronger than the away side here.
    Gainsborough v Whitby
    Warrington were one of the winners on Saturday when they beat Gainsborough, but despite the 3-0 score line they were fortunate to win. Two of the goals came about because of goalkeeper mistakes and the other one was a penalty. Gainsborough played well and it was a much improved performance from the FA Cup game. I think they are over priced to win this as Whitby were fortunate to come from two down to draw on Saturday against Buxton who were cruising and then conceded two quick goals. I would make the home side favourites.
    East Thurrock v Carshalton
    The home side were taken over by a very rich man in the summer, but he hasn't really spent on the team and they have struggled to far this season losing both their league games. They also have injury issues at the moment and Carshalton really ought to be too strong for their hosts. They were 2-0 up and dominating on Saturday at Margate, but conceded an own goal and a 90th minute penalty to draw 2-2. This game should be easier and 6/4 is a big price in my view.
    Needham Market v Royston
    Needham were well backed on the opening day of the season, but could only draw against Redditch, which on the face of it looked a poor result. However Redditch then went and won on Saturday so maybe they are going to be better than myself and others were giving them credit for. Needham won as well beating Stratford 4-2 in a comfortable victory. Royston look like they might struggle to reach last season's heights. They have drawn both league games so far against Banbury and at Alvechurch on Saturday. Alvechurch should be one of the strugglers and it took a 93rd minute goal to get Royston a point. The prices are massively out here in my view and there is no way the home side should be 3/1.
    Rushall Olympic v Bromsgrove Sporting
    Another game were the home side are wrongly priced at 3/1. Rushall eased passed Leiston on the opening day, but they were even better when drawing against Peterborough Sports on Saturday. They were down to 10 men whilst a goal down as well, but deserved the point. Bromsgrove won for us on Saturday, but didn't really deserve to win as Biggleswade deserved at least a point. Bromsgrove haven't really convinced so far this season and are struggling to match their performances of last time around at the moment. Rushall have got a much better chance of winning this than the prices suggest.
    Grantham 1pt @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Gainsborough 1pt @ 17/10 with Betfred
    Carshalton 2pts @ 6/4 with Betfred
    Needham Market 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
    Rushall Olympic 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365
  17. Like
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non-League Predictions > September 26th   
    Small loss to start the season last week thanks to two of the selections conceding two penalties each. This week I have 5 bets across the 4 divisions.
    Grantham v Atherton Collieries
    I opposed the away side last week which paid off and I think Grantham can beat them again here. Grantham did well to come from a goal down against Morpeth last Saturday especially as they had gone down to ten men. They backed that up with a win via a penalty shootout against Rushall in the FA Cup. Both those sides are better than Atherton and odds against quotes look too big.
    Warrington v Gainsborough Trinity
    Granted Trinity were very good last week when beating Hyde, but they were awful in the FA Cup losing 3-0 to AFC Mansfield. They have had to work with a reduced budget because of Covid and Warrington should be in the promotion hunt yet again. They won at Basford in the opening game and then drew with South Shields in the FA Cup (lost on pens). They should be too strong for Trinity.
    Lewes v Brightingsea Regent
    Two sides who look set to struggle this season, but the betting suggest Lewes are much the better side which I disagree with. They were stuffed 4-1 at Enfield on the opening day and Enfield had been struggling to train as a lot of the team had to self-isolate. They then lost 3-1 to Bedfont Sports in the FA Cup. The away side have also lost both games so far, but only 2-1 both times and as much as it is far from a lump on job they certainly look more than good enough to pick up 3 points here at 3/1. No way should Lewes be odds on based on their opening efforts.
    Biggleswade Town v Bromsgrove
    Biggleswade look pretty hopeless so far. They lost 1-0 to St Ives on the opening day and they are a side who will be in the bottom 6 I would imagine this season. They were then stuffed 5-1 at Leiston in the FA Cup which was another shocking effort. Bromsgrove will be expecting to be at the other end of the table. They got a late goal to get a point against Coalville and although they lost in the FA Cup to Stratford that was still a decent effort. Bromsgrove should be picking up their first win of the season here.
    Poole v Hayes & Yeading
    Hayes were involved in a good opening day game against Taunton and ended up with a point. They then beat Margate in the FA Cup and are looking in decent shape this season based on those two efforts. Poole ended up with a bye in the FA Cup and did win on the opening day, but they only created a couple of clear chances and scored from both of them. Granted that's being very clinical, but that isn't going to happen every week and I think Hayes are the better side so look value to me.
    Grantham 2.5pts @ 11/10 with Bet365
    Warrington 2pts @ Evs with Bet365
    Brightlingsea Regent 1pt @ 31/10 with Bet365
    Bromsgrove 2.5pts @ 13/10 with Bet365
    Hayes & Yeading 1pt @ 9/4 with Betfred
  18. Like
    salmonman reacted to thfc in Premier League Predictions > Sep 19th - 21st   
    I'm going to go against most of you as I just don't fancy Leeds at those prices.  Two newly promoted teams, and no real home advantage with the lack of fans.  I wouldn't want to be on Leeds at 1.66 which seems to be the best price at the moment.  They managed to lose in the cup to at home to Hull midweek, while Fulham managed a 1-0 win at Ipswich.  I know Leeds probably didn't care about the cup, but even so, you'd expect them to beat a Hull team (who also probably didn't care) who have just been relegated to league 1.  Fulham +1 at 2.38 with Betfair with a low stake is my bet on this game.
    Agree with @neilovan about Palace being a banana skin match for Man U.   Again i'm on the away side with a +1 handicap for this one at 3.5 with paddy power.  Reasoning is this is Man Utd's first game since the europa league exit, whereas Palace have a game under their belts and I thought were impressive in their game against Southampton last week.  Admittedly they managed to lose to Bournemouth on penalties in the week, but I assume weren't fussed about the game.  Palace won this game last season, and have a habit of winning away at the bigger teams.
    Finally, going with Newcastle again who did the business for me last week.  The bookies have Newcastle as only slight favourites which seems wrong given Newcastle finished well above Brighton last season, and have strengthened the team well IMO for this season.  Brighton still lack a proven goalscorer, and had to play on Thursday so two days less rest than Newcastle.  Newcastle at 2.8 is a great price all things considered.
     
     
     
     
  19. Like
    salmonman reacted to neilovan in Premier League Predictions > Sep 19th - 21st   
    Man United v Crystal Palace
    This is just such a banana skin for United. Palace play a weird style of flooding the defensive zone, and making it difficult for the opposition to create quality chances. They have weapons and can hurt teams on the break, or from a set-piece. It is the exact recipe that Man United struggle with. United would need an early goal to open the game up, but Palace know this, so will play a tight first half. I would expect Man U to be better at home this season, but the defense has not been strengthened. 
    Is Lindelof a huge improvement over Chris Smalling? I think not. My feeling is that Smalling is a better partner for Maguire. Not his fault that he played in a lot of average to poor Man United teams. Which de Gea shows up? The superstar, or the one who let's goals in off his hands? My feeling is that Fernandez will be shut down quicker this season. Last season he was an unknown quantity ... this season opponents won't let him play with such freedom.
    The home win at odds of 1.33 is a joke. Untouchable.
    The over 2.5 goals looks a long shot as I think there won't be more than 1 first half goal scored.
    For me a 0-1 or 1-0 2-0 scoreline looks very likely.
    The under 2.5 goals at odds of 2.2  looks decent bet here.
     
  20. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in National League Play-offs   
    It is going to be a crazy afternoon on Saturday trying to watch 6 games that all overlap with each other. Quite why the National League thought it was a good idea to have them all clashing like this I don't know. I have 3 bets again and lets hope for another 3/3.
    Harrogate v Boreham Wood (2.30pm live on BT Sport)
    Boreham Wood weren't great in the first half last week against Halifax and it was shocking defending/goalkeeping for Halifax's goal. 2nd half though they were much better and fully deserved the victory. Matt Rhead is always going to be a danger at set pieces and he scored from a superb corner and that is going to be a threat again. To be fair to Harrogate I think they would have pushed Barrow close. They were frustrating early in the season as they kept dropping silly points especially when I put them up as a bet! There were only 6 points between these two teams when the season finished and the difference was Boreham Wood drew 3 more games as they had both lost 9. Given they improved after 45 minutes of football I think they will improve again in their 2nd game back and as I mentioned last week they are so strong up front which for me could be the difference here. Bet365's 5/2 is just too big for an away win.
    Notts County v Barnet (5pm live on BT Sport)
    Having tipped up County obviously I am going with them here as well. Given how many defenders they had missing you have to give Barnet credit for keeping Yeovil out last week and there was some great last ditch defending. The woodwork also helped them out and I think they will find it harder to keep out the home side. As I mentioned in the outright preview County are capable of scoring wonder goals from the edge of the box and Barnet are going to struggle to defend those. They created very few chances at the other end as well although someone like Paul McCallum only needs one chance and he scored a good goal against Yeovil. Keeping him quiet will be key for the home side as well, but I think they are capable of doing that and 11/8 with Bet365.
    Havant & Waterlooville v Dartford (3pm live stream)
    Dartford looked really good in the 2nd half against Slough last week and were good value for their 3-0 victory. I think they can beat Havant in this on the back of that. As I mentioned in the outright piece I think Dartford would have been title contenders had Steve King been in charge and that brings them much closer to Havant than the league table has them. Havant have a superb side on paper and really ought to have won the the title, but they dropped so many silly points at home. With no crowd maybe that wont be a factor here, but Dartford will be full of confidence and will have the belief that they can win this. What I will say is that I think the play-off winners will come from this game as I think both teams have the edge over Dorking and Weymouth so I wouldn't put anyone off having a cover bet on Havant winning promotion given we have a big price on Dartford anyway.
    Boreham Wood 1pt @ 5/2 with Bet365
    Notts County 1pt @ 11/8 with Bet365
    Dartford 1pt @ 9/4 with Bet365
  21. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in National League Play-offs   
    5/6 on the play offs so far and we have Dartford and Notts county in the finals next week.
  22. Like
    salmonman got a reaction from Darran in National League Play-offs   
    Cheers darran! Who else had the treble on?
  23. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in National League Play-offs   
    The first weekend of action in the play-offs sees what the National League like to call the eliminators. The National League play-offs will be live on BT Sport whilst the North and South games will be on a pay per view stream should you wish to watch them.
    Boreham Wood v Halifax (Friday night 7pm)
    A couple of seasons ago Boreham Wood upset the odds by getting to the final of the play-offs and I have a feeling that they might be capable of doing it again. Tonight they announced their 20 man squad for the play-offs and there is plenty to like about it. All the players who played in their last league game feature and they look really strong up front. Luke Garrard has done a hell of job with them this season and they look a good side. Halifax only have 3 strikers coming into the play-offs and losing Devante Rodney was a huge blow to their chances. I think Halifax are probably slightly fortunate to be in the play-offs as well as they were losing their form and they certainly benefited from having an amazing start to the season. I obviously would carry more confidence if it was a normal play-offs, but the 11/10 with William Hill is an attractive price.
    Altrincham v Chester (Sunday 1.30pm)
    Fair play to the Chester players who are playing for nothing to help the club afford to take part in the play-offs, but I think it could well be for nothing. They have suffered from losing players including their star striker who decided to go to Gloucester City instead! I was hoping that we should see odds against about Altrincham because they looked on paper to be the best bet of the first round of fixtures and low and behold we can get 13/10 with William Hill and as I write no one is odds against. Altrincham ended the season in good form and they have goals in them as well as being pretty solid at the back. On paper they are certainly the stronger team and hopefully they can prove it on the pitch.
    Slough v Dartford (Sunday 1.30pm)
    Going to have to try and watch two games at the same time as both bets in the Step 2 play-offs frustratingly kick off at the same time. This one is pretty self explanatory given I think Dartford can win promotion. Slough were in pretty awful form when the league stopped and as I mention in my outright preview Dartford have been superb since Steve King took over and are value for more points than they ended with in my view. 12/5 with William Hill is way too big in my view.
    Boreham Wood 1pt @ 11/10 with William Hill
    Altrincham 2pts @ 13/10 with William Hill
    Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with William Hill 
  24. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in National League Play-offs   
    I must admit I didn't think I would be writing any Non-League previews for a long time and to be honest I don't massively agree with there being play-offs in the first place as the ending of the season on PPG will never sit right with me. Anyway we do have play-offs so hopefully there will be money to be made. The first thing I will say is a lot of the clubs seem to be being very secretive about things. Friendlies have been played, but hardly any results have been announced and some clubs aren't even saying who is available. Some clubs have lost players as they have been announced as signing for other teams, but I suspect there will be other players who aren't available because they want to move clubs but it hasn't been announced yet. It is a very unusual situation and clearly it makes punting tricky. It wouldn't be a total shock if we saw some surprising names not on the various team sheets. Still with what we do know I think there are some bets to be had.
    National League
    One friendly result we do know is that Notts County lost 3-1 to Dorking on Saturday. I was shocked by the result initially, but County played two separate 11's in each half and it was clear they were just using it as a training session especially as they don't have to play until the 25th. Also they wanted to avoid injuries and Dorking apparently had 3 so I suspect Dorking were taking it way more seriously than County were so I am not concerned. I thought Neil Ardley was very clever in sorting out his play-off squad ages ago just in case there were play-offs. To me County have been the most prepared out of all the clubs and you would hope that would stand them in good stead. Also it is worth remembering how bad they were at the start of the season, which is not a surprise given they nearly went out of business a year ago. I think if they had of had a clear run of things last summer they would have won the league and they look the strongest side going into the play-offs. The other key thing for me is they scored plenty of goals from outside the box during the season and I can imagine that will come in very handy in games where teams haven't played a proper game for months especially if they end up at Wembley. I would have them as favourites myself so 5/2 with Bet365 looks a cracking price. 
    Notts County 2pts @ 5/2
    National League North
    We do know a few of the clubs in the North play-offs are missing players and it really ought to be York's to lose. York were harshly treated by PPG as they would have beaten Kings Lynn to the title in my view given Kings Lynn only won the title on the basis they had more games called off. It would seem York are at full strength heading into the play-offs from what I can tell and that should put them at a big advantage. There probably isn't a great deal in the price to be honest, but it is worth a small interest.
    York 1pt @ 13/8 with Bet365
    National League South
    Strictly speaking Havant should be hard to beat here, but then Havant should really have won the league with the squad they had and they were unlikely to have beaten Wealdstone had the season continued. The main reason for that was there home form where the dropped silly points. Maybe no fans being in the ground will make things easier for them, but I am going to look for a team at a bigger price instead. If Steve King had been in charge of Dartford from last summer then I think they would have gone close to winning the title. He transformed them from a team who were in a relegation battle to one who ended up in the play-offs. Yes they are likely to have to play 3 away games to win promotion, but with no fans there home advantage is certainly lessened in my view. From what I can tell they have a full squad to chose from and their manager is certain to have them ready for this given his experience. I think the 12/1 with Betway is more than generous.
    Dartford 1pt @ 12/1 with Betway
    Match bets to follow
  25. Thanks
    salmonman reacted to Darran in Non League Predictions > March 14th   
    Must admit I feel under a bit of pressure as I can imagine these tips are going to be more popular than before given the circumstances. I imagine we might see some late call offs, but as it stands most of the 3 National League games and the Northern Premier League games are set to go ahead. I have 6 bets and hopefully I can help make people some money.
    Maidenhead v Stockport
    The home side are trying to get away from the relegation zone, whilst the away side are trying to get into the play-offs and it is the away side I like here. They are unbeaten in 5 games and their away form is very strong as they have lost just twice in their last 10 away fixtures and Maidenhead have lost 6 of their last 9 home games. They have also lost 4 on the bounce including when I opposed them last weekend against Boreham Wood. Stockport ought to be too strong for them and they ought to be clear favourites.
    Darlington v Farsely Celtic
    Darlington won their first game in 6 last Saturday when beating Telford, but they had drawn their previous 3 which were all solid performances. They have been strong at home pretty much all season as well having lost just 4 times and I think they are a better team than Farsely. Celtic had to go to Evesham to play my own side on Monday and blew a 1 goal lead and Gloucester aren't very good. Farsley's away form isn't great either having lost 4 of their last 5 on their travels. Overall it is just two wins in 10 and one of those was against a really bad Blyth side. The home side look a good price.
    Spennymoor v Hereford
    Got to take a chance on Hereford again at a big price given how much they are improving. I put them up last week to beat Farsely and they were impressive coming on the back of beating York 4-1. I also put them up on Tuesday when drawing 0-0 at Kettering, but there isn't too much wrong with that given the state of the home sides pitch. Spennymoor are a good side and deserve to be favourites, but they put in a bit of a dud performance last week against Altrincham and I think an improving Hereford are under-rated.
    Braintree v St Albans
    A couple of weeks ago Braintree caused a bit of a shock when beating Bath 2-0, but that is one of only 2 wins in their last 10 games and although St Albans are a point below their hosts that is mainly down to the fact Braintree had a good start to the season and St Albans a poor one and as things stand for me St Albans are the better side. They have lost their last 2 games 2-1 but those came against two of the most in form teams in the divison, Dartford and Chippenham. Prior to that they managed to beat 2nd place Havant which shows what sort of level they can reach and I think they can pick up 3 more points here.
    Chippenham v Wealdstone
    Given I have put up Chippenham a few times of late to great effect I am going to chance them to beat the league leaders here. For those who haven't seen my previous tips of Chippenham they have improved massively under former Gloucester manger Mike Cook which is no surprise to me given what he did at Gloucester last team to keep them up. They have only lost twice in their last 10 and are clearly a much improved side. There are signs Wealdstone are showing some nerves as they lost to Chelmsford, drew to Dartford and had to come from a goal down to beat Dulwich last week. This will be a tough test for them and I am happy to take a chance on the home side winning their 6th game in their last 7.
    Radcliffe Borough v Whitby Town
    You might think I have gone made putting up a team who haven't won since Boxing Day, have picked up just two points in that time and scored 7 goals. However I think there is good reason to back them here. They recently got Lee Flower in as manager and he has improved the side. They put in a really good performance last Saturday to get a 2-2 draw against a very good Nantwich team. Whitby are pretty good themselves to be fair, but they haven't won in 4 and they had a kind fixture list. They drew 3 and lost 1. The loss was to Stafford who hadn't won in 7 at the time. Granthem have only got 5 points in their last 10 games and they drew with them and one of their other draws was against Mickleover who have only 2 points in their last 5 games. This gives me hope that an improved Radcliffe can get a first win since Boxing Day.
    Stockport 1pt @ 8/5 with Bet365, BetVictor, Betway and William Hill
    Darlington 2pts @ 5/4 with Bet365, Betfred, BetVictor and William Hill
    Hereford 1pt @ 9/2 with Bet365
    St Albans 1pt @ 19/10 with Bet365
    Chippenham 1pt @ 11/5 with Bet365
    Radcliffe 1pt @ 13/5 with BetVictor
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