DanV89
-
Posts
1,248 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
2
Posts posted by DanV89
-
-
2 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Auric ...is part owned by kyren Wilson ....is that an omen ??...🫣🫣🤔🤔
Don’t know if you’ve noticed Richard but Auric also has collateral form with Due For Luck. A horse called South Shore was beaten half a length by DFL at Ripon last year. South Sure then beat Auric at Windsor two weeks ago. So if Auric goes well ill be topping up on DFL!!
-
Henry Longfellow won’t run I believe.
-
On 4/26/2024 at 4:56 PM, richard-westwood said:
Only other race I could find a potential bet was 7.00 wolv .......computer was saying if the full 8 run and I could get 11/2 or better then ...SO OBSESSED is a value bet Ew .....bet 365 have just priced up first at 6/1 ....so I'm happy to take that and play ....5pt Ew 🙂
Thank God for the flat Dicky Boy!!
-
7 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
I think Pontefract is virtually unraceable ...hence the called off race and non runners ....fight another day ...some fab racing the coming weekend 😎
Interesting that it’s only described as soft and not heavy. Although with all the controversy about the going recently, it’s anyone’s guess!
-
23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
445 Newmarket
Bolsena... has shown enough to suggest he could take a weakish looking race like this ....interesting that Ryan Moore takes the ride ....I'll try 5pts Ew 5/1 b365 (generally 7/2)
6/1 lovely winner Richard thanks again bud.
- richard-westwood and MCLARKE
-
2
-
23 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
255 Newmarket
Bopedro. 8.8 10/1
Dutch decoy. 8.8 16/1
Hafeet Alain. 8.5 14/1
Tricky race this one ....I'm not a huge fan of backing older horses and all these are of the older generation but computer is saying to back these even though they haven't got brill form .....gonna be an interesting one ....5pt Ew top 2 .....forecasts all 3
Brilliant Richard. Have you rated tonight’s Euromillions by any chance?!
-
On 4/9/2024 at 1:12 PM, Darran said:A maximum of 22 will be lining up for this year's Aintree Foxhunters' on Thursday. It looks set to be an interesting affair and one which will take place on very testing ground. Here is my in-depth guide to the race.Annamix - Clearly still very capable as he showed when beating Billaway and Ferns Lock at Fairyhouse a year ago. That day he picked up the pieces after those two went quite hard up front. He was then running a big race at Punchestown when he was badly hampered at 3 out and had to pull up. He then won at Killarney the following month. This season he returned at Naas and pulled up behind Its On The Line, but he looked pretty good in winning at Gowran a month later beating Early Doors by 10L. I think he has the ability to play a part, but I think he would prefer a longer trip and as much as this course isn't the jumping test it used to be, he has often jumped terribly in hunter chases. I found it very odd that Patrick Mullins described him as an excellent jumper after that Gowran win. Those two things stop me from wanting to back him, but if he put in a bold showing I wouldn't be shocked.Bennys King - Ran a huge race in this last year to finish 2nd to Famous Clermont and all the evidence suggests that he's in just as good form this season as well. He started off with a couple of fitness runs in handicaps and then the cheekpieces went back on and he ran a huge race to finish 3rd in the opening hunter chase of the season given he had set a hell of a pace and the race has worked out well. He was then 2nd to Sine Nomine at Wetherby over a trip which stretches him, but clearly given she won at Cheltenham it was still a respectable effort. He was really good at Leicester though when he jumped them silly from the front and beat Hardline by 23L. He no doubt will be prominently ridden again and whilst he probably isn't quite good enough to win he should be capable of a top 6 finish again.Cap Du Mathan - Appreciated the drop down to hunter chases when winning over 2m at Leicester in easy style. Firak was hampered though and whilst he still would likely have finished 2nd it would have been interesting if he had have been capable of making him fight for it. The 9yo had pulled up the last couple of times, but his seasonal return at Ascot when a close 4th to Boothill was to be fair a decent effort. He's unproven at the trip and wouldn't be my idea of the winner.Captain Tommy - Has done well to win a couple of hunter chases at Ludlow this season given he hasn't won pointing, although he was well fancied and I think there were reasons why he didn't run as well in them as he did in both Ludlow wins. In theory beating Espoir De Guye is strong form, but I think he must have under performed and whilst I can see him running his race he ought not to be good enough.Cat Tiger - 3rd to Cousin Pascal in 2021 and 2nd to Latenightpass in 2022 so can he now go on to win it this year? Looks unlikely to me as he looks on the downgrade. He ran out at Hereford in the race Time Leader won and then was 26L behind Bennys King when 3rd at Leicester last time. I can see that some people will latch onto him because of his Aintree record and I get that, but for me you are purely relying on that fact and he doesn't look in the same form now as he was then.Drop Flight - Won at Exeter last month and it was probably a deserved hunter chase success but he was pulled up at 66/1 in this last year and I don't see there being much improvement on that.Espoir De Guye - Didn't stay on hunter chase debut when a well beaten 3rd at Warwick, but dropped down to 2m4f at Wincanton he got the better of Famous Clermont which was a really good effort. Didn't back it up at Ludlow last time when 2nd to Captain Tommy and there wasn't an obvious excuse that day. You would give him an e/w squeak on the Wincanton win, but I suspect a midfield finish is most likely.Focus Point - Beating Fakie D'alene in October was a good effort, but he's been well beaten since and was 2nd in a maiden hunter chase at Down Royal last May so shouldn't be good enough.Garboriot - Came over from France and went hunter chasing last season and showed great promise on his debut at Hereford when a 20L 3rd to Bennys King. Things didn't go so well after than as he was a well beaten 4th at Kelso and then pulled up at Fakenham. He then unseated at the first at Warwick. He ran a bit better when 2nd at Ludlow, but was still beaten 12L and then he was stuffed again at Kempton. So the wheels had appeared to fall off, but the 12L 2nd to Time Leader at Cartmel was better and again showed that there was ability there. Given the summer off he went handicapping late last year and won at Kempton and Doncaster before just being denied when 3rd at Ludlow off 122 just before Christmas. Finally he was showing his true form and connections think it had just taken time for him to acclimatise to his new yard. He had another break before going back hunter chasing at Catterick and I thought he was very impressive in beating Windsor Avenue by 6L. Given George Cowley had yet to ride a winner under rules I thought he gave him a very cool and calm ride and with it just being a prep run for this there should be more to come. I think he looks one of the major players.Grand Roi - Has looked to have his quirks in points and hunter chases this season. Was flattered to be so close to Secret Investor at Fakenham and I don't think he would have beaten Forest Chimes at Stratford even if he had jumped the last better. He then bizarrely was sent off favourite a week later at Exeter and barley went a yard before pulling up. Can't have him at all here.Hardline - Beaten 31L by Ferns Lick at Thurles in January and somehow stayed on for 2nd behind Bennys King at Leicester despite looking like he would be tailed off. Still has 23L to make up on him though and was a well beaten 17th in the Topham last year. Might do better than that, but makes no appeal from a betting point of view.Its On The Line - A great run at Cheltenham to finish 2nd again, this time to Sine Nomine. It was no surprise to see him race lazily again, but he keeps finding for pressure and whilst he has his quirks, unlike Famous Clermont he does find. He ran in this last year and fell at Bechers when he was towards the back of the field. Given he is a horse who is full of stamina I'm just not sure this trip is going to be what he wants and it is always hard to win round this course when you are coming from so far back, which is likely to be what he tries to do. I had heard that he was going to miss the race, but I suspect really testing ground has meant they have changed their plans and are going to give it a go anyway. He has the ability to win, but even in testing ground I'm not sure this looks his race to me as surely he is going to get himself outpaced and I'm happy enough to take him on. What he does look like is a Grand National type and it wouldn't surprise me if that's where he ends up next season.Lieutenant Rocco - Never run here, but was 4th in the Cross-Country at the Festival last year and whilst beaten 46L it was still a fair effort. This season he pulled up in a handicap on Boxing Day, but then ran really well when trying to make all at Taunton in February when 2nd to the very promising Macklin. Wasn't so good 8 days later at Wincanton when finishing a well beaten 3rd behind Espoir De Guye and Famous Clermont. I'd be inclined to forgive that effort given how close it was to the very good Taunton one and a bold showing wouldn't be a shock.Matts Commission - Finally got the hunter chase win he deserved at Hexham last May and ran OK to finish 9th in this last year. Did win a point last month, but can't see him improving on that 9th.Rebel Dawn Rising - Finally got the 2nd hunter chase victory he deserved when winning at Fakenham on Gold Cup day. He slowed into the final fence, which is something he did last year at Fakenham when unseating his jockey before the fence when he would have won. He ran really well at Cheltenham last May as he tried to serve it up to Premier Magic, but he doesn't really stay 3m2f. This trip is ideal for him and he should improve from that Fakenham run which was his seasonal return. He might not quite have the class of some of these, but it would be no surprise if he managed a top 6 finish as this race looks perfect for him.Reikers Island - 15th in this last year and no doubt the aim is to give his owner/jockey another spin round.Romeo Magico - Was originally put in at a single figure price which surprised me as his form doesn't massively excite me at this stage. He won a maiden hunter chase at Limerick over Christmas by 0.5L and then was an 8L 2nd to Ferns Lock at Thurles and was easily put in his place. He then was only 4th in a point before looking impressive when winning at Down Royal on St Patricks Day over 2m4f. As good as he looked though that wasn't a great contest and I just don't see what he's done to warrant being so short in the betting as others have certainly achieved more. Clearly being 6 means there might be improvement to come, but even with the drift he still looks on the short side.Spyglass Hill - Was pretty useful for Henry De Bromhead in Ireland and got up to a mark of 146 and ran in some decent races. He did run over course and distance in the Grand Sefton in 2021 and he was in the lead when he stumbled and unseated at the Canal Turn. His last run in Ireland was a year ago which was a solid 3rd at Clonmel. He is now with Regan Pallas who works for Christian Williams and he made his debut for him in the Walrus at Haydock. Given how desperate the ground was and the fact he had been off for nearly a year I thought it was a top performance to come out on top as he had to be really game in the finish to beat Iskandar Pecos. That one franked the form by hacking up at Leicester a few days later albeit in a weak race and he then won at Ludlow last week. The fact we are going to get heavy ground really enhances his claims as all 4 wins have been on heavy ground and with stable confidence high he looks set to go very close. James King is a great jockey booking as well as he gave Cousin Pascal one of the best rides you will ever see round the National course to win this race.Tea Clipper - The bid for Cheltenham qualification failed in part due to the weather as one of the races he was due to run in was called off and in part because he hates soft ground. As it turned out he probably wouldn't have run given the ground last month anyway. A lot of people slated James King for getting him beat at Warwick, but given D'Jango finished 4th at Cheltenham I just think he was beaten by a better stayer. I'd ignore the Ludlow effort which was way below par. He clearly finds it hard to win, but he has also run to a high level this season and a level which would see him go fairly close in this. Clearly ground is important for him though and it just isn't in his favour.The Big Lense - Just needed a top 3 finish at Leicester to qualify for this, but may have got slightly lucky thanks to a faller. He's better on better ground and the win at Aintree last June was a very good effort. I think his campaign has been built towards a big run here from a shrewd yard, but even so I would have liked to have seen a bit more to want to back him even at a huge price especially on testing groundTime Leader - If he hadn't made a really bad mistake at the chair last year then he would have gone very close to winning as he was only beaten 6.25L in 5th and he probably lost nearly that with the error. I thought he was capable of running a big race at Cheltenham and initially had it between him and Quintin's Man as to who would be the small e/w bet for me in the race. As the ground was testing I went with Quintin's Man as Time Leader had shown he hates testing ground in the past, but not only did he handle it, he also looked the winner in the home straight until his stamina ran out in the ground. His jockey said that if the ground was better then he might well have won and to be fair I could easily have seen that being true. Whilst he obviously does stay 3m2f, this trip is probably his ideal distance and he I think he will have a great chance of improving on his 5th last year and he could easily win for his young trainer Hannah who is no doubt helped by his former trainer Joe O'Shea, who won this race with Cousin Pascal.Windsor Avenue - Well beaten by Sine Nomine at Wetherby and then behind Spyglass Hill in the Walrus. Ran much better behind Gaboriot at Catterick so fitness is clearly getting there. He could find a northern hunter chase this season, but whilst he should give his jockey a nice spin round, I can't see it being this one he wins.Verdict - It's quite tight at the top of the market, but It's On The Line is favourite with most and I am happy to take him on. The testing ground is in his favour and I think will help his cause, but I think he's going to find himself outpaced and out the back which will mean making a lot of ground in testing conditions. That's going to be tough to do and whilst he has the ability to win, it will be some performance for him to do so.The ground has come in the favour of Spyglass Hill and he rates the main selection. It was a very good win first up in the Walrus and he should come on for that. All his wins have been on heavy and I suspect he will settle just behind the front runners which should be ideal. I know stable confidence is high and the 33/1 he was put in when betting opened was a huge rick. Given the ground I would just about make him favourite.Time Leader is only just behind him in how high I rate his chances and that is purely down to the ground. If it was drier then I would make him favourite, but the fact he handled it at Cheltenham over further does enhance my confidence that he will handle it here. He was superb in the race last year and whilst his jockey can't use his claim, he has looked one of the best amateur's around this season so that doesn't bother me. If the Cheltenham contest was over 2m5f then he would have beaten Its On The Line and I think he will reverse the form with him.The 3rd pick is my e/w bet of the race and probably the one horse who is still massively over priced in the race. Gaboriot has looked an improved horse this season and this race has been the target. I was really impressed with him at Catterick and he should be a single figure price in my view.Annamix has the ability to win, but I worry about his jumping and he looks underpriced. Couldn't put anyone off backing Bennys King e/w as he has shown he is in as good form as he was last season and he should be in the top 5. Of the real big prices Rebel Dawn Rising makes the most appeal as I think he has the ability to be in and around the top 5.Spyglass Hill 2pts @ 9/2 with Skybet, Betfred, William Hill, BetVictor, Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 3/1)Time Leader 1.75pts @ 5/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes (take up to 100/30)Gaboriot 1pt e/w @ 14/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes to 5 places (take up to 7/1)
Spyglass a big drifter today Darran, 8/1 now.
GSI as Willie once said?!
-
54 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
440 ain't
Saint roi. 8.9 5/1
Path doroux. 8.9 7/1
Unexpected party 8.7.
Heltenham 8.5
5pt wins top 2
I’m at Aintree on Friday if you get chance to rate any races mate 👍🏼
-
Same and I had him in a double with Ciara Pearl who’d won at Ling earlier.
-
1 minute ago, richard-westwood said:
What the hell's happened in the last race ????
12 runners went off, false start called, rules are if you end up crossing the finish line you can’t run. 10 of them crossed the line so now they’re re-running it with 2 of them 😂😂😂😂
-
One I quite like at a decent price in the 7pm at Wolves is Sub Thirteen at 12/1. Had wind surgery in November and has had one run since over 6f at this track, finishing 4th beaten 2 lengths. Has been dropped 1lb for that run and a fair few horses come on on their second start after a wind op. Travelled quite well that day but was then ridden along when outpaced, staying on well towards the outside into 4th. Up to 7f today should suit based on that run and should be sharper today with that behind him.
-
Going to take a bit of a flyer on Gearings Point in the first at Lingfield at 22/1. Has recently been running over hurdles but his last flat run was over C&D when he was 5th beaten 4 lengths in a strong Saturday race which was a Class 4. He’s 1lb lower here and also drops into a C6. It’s a hands and heels apprentice race so anything could happen but he’s got one of the better, and more experienced riders up so could be worth a small ew at a big price.
-
14 hours ago, DanV89 said:
Well backed 8s into 9/2 but completely tailed off stone last. Something amiss I suspect.
Was found to be lame after the race.
- The Equaliser and MCLARKE
-
1
-
1
-
10 hours ago, DanV89 said:
In the 7pm Class 5 handicap at Southwell, De Vega's Warrior has been backed into favouritism, and it's not hard to see why after his last run where he was only beaten a neck over 2m at Kempton. However, he is still a maiden after 22 runs and at the prices I prefer Award Dancer at 8/1 (generally 15/2). This horse has shown improved form since a wind op at the end of November, finishing 4th on all 3 occasions but only being beaten 1, 0.5 and 2 lengths respectively. Award Dancer's last run was just 10 days ago over C&D in a Class 3 when he finished 4th, beaten 2 lengths by Spartan Army - that horse was completing a double that day and has since gone on to complete a hat-trick when winning a Class 2 at Lingfield on Saturday so that form looks very solid. Drops into a Class 5 this evening off a mark of 75 (has won off 76 on the AW previously).
Well backed 8s into 9/2 but completely tailed off stone last. Something amiss I suspect.
- MCLARKE and The Equaliser
-
2
-
In the 7pm Class 5 handicap at Southwell, De Vega's Warrior has been backed into favouritism, and it's not hard to see why after his last run where he was only beaten a neck over 2m at Kempton. However, he is still a maiden after 22 runs and at the prices I prefer Award Dancer at 8/1 (generally 15/2). This horse has shown improved form since a wind op at the end of November, finishing 4th on all 3 occasions but only being beaten 1, 0.5 and 2 lengths respectively. Award Dancer's last run was just 10 days ago over C&D in a Class 3 when he finished 4th, beaten 2 lengths by Spartan Army - that horse was completing a double that day and has since gone on to complete a hat-trick when winning a Class 2 at Lingfield on Saturday so that form looks very solid. Drops into a Class 5 this evening off a mark of 75 (has won off 76 on the AW previously).
- Bedlam, black rabbit, azzybear and 4 others
-
7
-
1 hour ago, DanV89 said:
Going to take an ew chance on Revision in the opener at Wolves at 16/1. Has generally been running in Class 4 & 5 races throughout his career so far, last two tries have been in Class 6 where he was well beaten over 7f but then ran much better over 6f at Kempton last time. He was beaten 4 lengths by White Mist that day but was carrying 5lbs more than that rival, furthermore he actually reared at the start and missed the break. Today he carries 4lbs less than White Mist but is 3x her price. From a career-low mark he must be getting to a mark he can win from.
Rough race but 3rd.
- MCLARKE, Bedlam, The Equaliser and 2 others
-
5
-
Going to take an ew chance on Revision in the opener at Wolves at 16/1. Has generally been running in Class 4 & 5 races throughout his career so far, last two tries have been in Class 6 where he was well beaten over 7f but then ran much better over 6f at Kempton last time. He was beaten 4 lengths by White Mist that day but was carrying 5lbs more than that rival, furthermore he actually reared at the start and missed the break. Today he carries 4lbs less than White Mist but is 3x her price. From a career-low mark he must be getting to a mark he can win from.
-
Had a small ew on Guns And Flowers in the 6pm 7f handicap at Kempton this evening at 30/1. Best run so far came over C&D two starts back in January, finished 5th but was only beaten 2 lengths and is now 3lbs lower, with Christian Howarth taking off a further 3lbs. Has since run poorly when well beaten at Newcastle but that run can be excused as was over a mile and not all horses take to that track as there can often be a strong headwind. On the aforementioned C&D run, Guns And Flowers finished around 7 lengths in front of Bits And Bobs who reopposes tonight, yet that one is half the price of my selection so looks a bit of value to run into a place.
Gavi Di Gavi in the 7pm at 10/1 also may be worth backing as looks a solid ew bet. Finished a length behind today's second fav Lady Of Arabia last time out - that day was carrying 2lbs more than that rival, today carries 1lb less. More importantly, that last race was in a small field where there naturally wasn't much pace. Gavi Di Gavi was held up out the back and was the only horse that wasn't prominent that made the frame. More runners today should hopefully mean more pace which would suit his late finishing run-style.
-
12 minutes ago, DanV89 said:
I like the chances of Trulie Good in the basement Classified race at 5.30 at Southwell tonight, currently 12/1 but wouldn’t surprise me if she were to be backed throughout the day. Owner trained and Bowring often does well at Southwell. Ran well in two handicaps at Southwell in Jan, firstly over 5f when only beaten 3/4 length by Street Life (who had a better draw that time, and reopposes tonight) and then a short head over 6f. Then ran in a classified, however that was over a mile so can put a line through that. Same weights with Street Life tonight but only because of that ones jockey claim and is also better drawn than SL tonight. There looks like there will be a lot of pace on too which will only help Trulie Good's chances as we know she gets further. These Classified races are generally full of out of form, low grade horses so it is quite unusual to see one with recent consistent form figures (224) at a double figure price dropping into this grade.
As luck would have it, Hugh Taylor has put this one up about 15 mins after my post so no longer 12s!
-
I like the chances of Trulie Good in the basement Classified race at 5.30 at Southwell tonight, currently 12/1 but wouldn’t surprise me if she were to be backed throughout the day. Owner trained and Bowring often does well at Southwell. Ran well in two handicaps at Southwell in Jan, firstly over 5f when only beaten 3/4 length by Street Life (who had a better draw that time, and reopposes tonight) and then a short head over 6f. Then ran in a classified, however that was over a mile so can put a line through that. Same weights with Street Life tonight but only because of that ones jockey claim and is also better drawn than SL tonight. There looks like there will be a lot of pace on too which will only help Trulie Good's chances as we know she gets further. These Classified races are generally full of out of form, low grade horses so it is quite unusual to see one with recent consistent form figures (224) at a double figure price dropping into this grade.
-
20 hours ago, Darran said:Saturday 7.15am sees the latest running of the Caulfield Cup. There will be a few familiar names and Joseph O'Brien has two runners and the Crisford's run West Wind Blows. Here are my thoughts on the runners.Gold Trip - Just got headed in the final strides in this last year, then finished 9th in the Cox Plate before going on to impressively win the Melbourne Cup. He won for the first time since when putting in a superb performance to beat a few of these in the Turnbull Stakes a couple of weeks ago. Has to give more weight away here, but if he's in the form he was a couple of weeks ago he might be capable of doing it.Without A Flight - Only finished 13th in last year's Melbourne Cup, but then went up to Queensland in May/June and won a G3 and a G2 in easy style. Had a break and then returned in the G1 Underwood last time over 1800m here a month ago and was an eye-catcher when finishing 6th behind Alligator Blood who won again last week. The step up to 2400m from 1800m is going to be ideal for him and he looks a big player.Breakup - As they have shown so often in recent years, the Japanese horses have to be respected wherever the go. Was well beaten by Equinox last time at big odds although clearly not a shock as he was big odds that day. His last win came over 2500m in November at G2 and he was 4th in a G1 over 3200m in April. He certainly has to be respected.Montefilia - Had started to become disappointing, but she's been good in her last two starts finishing 3rd in a G3 at Randwick and then won the G2 Hill Stakes last time at Rosehill. She did it well that day given she didn't get a gap until 250m to go. Probably needs to find more again here, but at least she is in form.Francesco Guardi - Certainly needs this trip as he proved last year when finishing 2nd in the Bart Cummings over 2510m and then winning the Moonee Valley Cup over 2500m. Started off over 1400m this prep then up to 1600m and then 2000m when 7th in the Turnbull. Has been running solidly and clearly be building up to this.West Wind Blows - Simon & Ed Crisford have sent him down after a very solid summer over here including a G3 win at Longchamp, 2nd in the Hardwick and a respectable run in the Eclipse. Was a huge run first up in the Turnbull to finish 2nd to Gold Trip and on that form he is weighted to reverse the form. I liked the way he kept finding to hold on for 2nd and he should improve from that run. He's drawn in 2 so Spencer will need to get him settled close to the pace otherwise the concern is he wont be able to get a run. If he does that he ought to be going very close.Soulcombe - Another ex-UK horse and looks to have an obvious chance. Was really impressive first up in a Listed Race here over 1700m and then has run really good races at G1 level when 4th in the Underwood over 1800 and then ran on strongly for 3rd in the Turnbull. 2400m is going to be ideal for him and again is weighted to reverse form with Gold Trip.Duke De Sessa - Used to be trained by Dermot Weld in Ireland and won a Listed Race on his final start in November at Naas. Has been settled near the back in all his 3 races in Australia so far and stayed on well enough in the Turnbull when 6th last time. Step up in trip is ideal and likely to be peaking here. Likely to have to travel very wide though given his run style and wide draw and I also think he would prefer a softer track.Hoo Ya Mal - 2nd in last years Derby and finished 12th in last year's Melbourne Cup on his first start in Australia. Had the fastest last 600m of the race when resuming over 1600m in a G2 at Randwick finishing 5th, was then 7th a couple of weeks later in the 7 Stakes also over 1600m and then was just run down late by Montefilia in the Hill Stakes. Clearly going to enjoy stepping up in trip and might just be in better form than the bare figures suggest.Right You Are - Won the Listed Mornington Cup in April and the 5th in the Underwood wasn't too bad, but was only 11th in the Turnbull and he doesn't look like being good enough.Emissary - Another who wasn't great in the Turnbull when finishing 12th and I'd be surprised if he won.Goldman - Another who doesn't look good enough and given he usually just about leads he's going to have to do some work to get over from 18.Okita Soushi - Royal Ascot winner in June when landing the Duke Of Edinburgh beating HMS President by a neck. Not sure he achieved a great deal in the St Leger Trial last time, but it has to be said that if this were a handicap in the UK or Ireland he would actually be getting less weight than he is from the other horses with UK/Irish ratings higher up the handicap. I don't really fancy him, but at the same time if he won I could see why did.Fame - 2nd in the Queensland Derby in May, but that wouldn't be good enough and not improved since.Bois D'Argent - Ran OK in The Metropolitain when 7th and he didn't get much luck in running, but given the winner Just Fine bombed out last week then I would be surprised if that form line was good enough.Spirit Ridge - Stablemate of Bois D'Argent and was 2nd in The Metropolitain. Usually makes the running, but can't see him making all.Valiant King - He has the same Irish rating as his stablemate and yet has even less weight to carry. He's very lightly raced and his only win was in a Navan maiden in May, but on his next start he was 2nd to Desert Hero at Royal Ascot. That is obviously strong form, but it was his next run that is even more eye-catching as he was only just beaten by Vauban and they pulled clear of the rest. Granted he wasn't so good on his last start, but I suspect that was being used more as a prep run ahead of his journey to Australia. Stall 1 can prove troublesome at times, but he has Jamie Kah on top so she is capable of delivering the goods.United Nations - Was a good 2nd in the Herbert Power last week, but would be a shock winner.Verdict - This is really competitive and to be honest it might be harder to find the winner than it will be of the Melbourne Cup next month. I'm going to put Without A Flight on top as this looks ideal for him. He was fancied for the Melbourne Cup last year, but the ground went against him as he needs it quick as he showed when going up to Queensland for his two wins. It will be quick ground here and his prep run was full of promise. I know Gold Trip is weighted to not finish in front of the 2nd and 3rd from the Turnbull, but I think he is worth more than the winning margin and the turn of foot he showed was seriously impressive. He is my main danger. Soulcombe didn't get the clearest of runs in the Turnbull and I don't think he was ridden quite as strongly as Gold Trip once out in the clear so he is next. West Wind Blows was game in that race to finish 2nd, but sometimes horses from the UK don't run as well 2nd up and his low draw does concern as he could find traffic. Clearly though if he does back it up then he can win. Valiant King is the other that really interests me especially on his Vauban form, but the draw just puts me off from making him a bet.Without A Flight @ 11/2 with Bet365, Paddy Power and BetfairNB If having an e/w bet William Hill are going 5 places
Cheers Darran, great shout. I had a win bet at 15/2 this morning and then another in play at 12 on the Exchange!
- Darran, MCLARKE, The Equaliser and 2 others
-
5
-
6 hours ago, richard-westwood said:
335 newm
Boiling point. 8.5 20/1
Alnayabi. 8.3 11/2
Eben shadad 8.1 7/2
Military 8/1 7/2
Tough race as the front 3 in the betting could be open to any amount of improvement but I'm going to fly in the wind and back boiling point as the value bet at 20/1 .....has been totally overlooked but the way he cantered to last win on the bit I think that run has been underestimated so the 20/1 Ew 4 places just appeals asxa value bet to me .....5pts Ew 😁
Hope you had the tricast Richard 👀
-
3 minutes ago, richard-westwood said:
Was disappointed with maksud yest but I think he pulled up lame or something 😕.....so its nice to be back on the board ......I'm being more selective with bets so it can go a while between bets ....computer rates the race from 7 diff perspectives then takes a best guess at most likely result.....I'm only backing now wen horses qualify top 3 in at least 5 diff scenarios ....average is 3 to 4 but 5 is in average 1 in 5 or 6 races but makes them stronger bets 💪 ......I'll keep rating and wait for the next one
Maksud was fatally injured mate 😢
- Tedthewolf, Villa Chris, MCLARKE and 1 other
-
4
-
@Darranhave you managed to have a look at the Hunters Chase at Carlisle today at all?
Racing Chat - Wednesday 8th May
in At The Races - Racing Forum
Posted
BB has only run against South Shore once from what I can see and that was the day on heavy going you mention? And today Beyond Borders has to give Auric 9lbs.