neilovan

What a strange men's Wimbledon it has been. If you said that both Medvedev and Rublev would fall in the 4th round to Hurkacz and Fucsovics I would have laughed in your face. Fucsovics looked so limited against Djoko. How can he win the last two sets against Rublev, 6-0 6-3?
But in a crazy way, the 4 men in the semi's are the 4 best players left. Djoko really has had an easy run, but if he can beat two in form players in Shapavalov and Berrentini back to back he deserves it.  Will Shapa feel the effects of a 5 setter?
For me a Djoko v Berrettini final, though Shapa will go close. He is only 22, in the absolute prime of his life, and looks to have matured considerably. No easy customer. For me Berrettini has just floated along on a ridiculously good serve. I can't see Hurkacz getting past him.
One thing going in the favor of Shapavalov and Berrentinni is that they are both so new to this stage of a major. They have no previous history (ie. Fed or Djoko has beaten me 7 times at this stage), and they have that incredible bullet-proof vibe that comes with youth.

What a strange men's Wimbledon it has been. If you said that both Medvedev and Rublev would fall in the 4th round to Hurkacz and Fucsovics I would have laughed in your face. Fucsovics looked so limited against Djoko. How can he win the last two sets against Rublev, 6-0 6-3?
But in a crazy way, the 4 men in the semi's are the 4 best players left. Djoko really has had an easy run, but if he can beat two in form players in Shapavalov and Berrentini back to back he deserves it.  Will Shapa feel the effects of a 5 setter?
For me a Djoko v Berrettini final, though Shapa will go close. He is only 22, in the absolute prime of his life, and looks to have matured considerably. No easy customer. For me Berrettini has just floated along on a ridiculously good serve. I can't see Hurkacz getting past him.
One thing going in the favor of Shapavalov and Berrentinni is that they are both so new to this stage of a major. They have no previous history (ie. Fed or Djoko has beaten me 7 times at this stage), and they have that incredible bullet-proof vibe that comes with youth.

I think it is the end for Fed today. I watched all three matches he played. Against Mannarino he struggled. Gasquet was already defeated before he stepped on court. His game was like hitting marshmallows for Fed. Fed played poorly against Norrie, but Norrie actually played worse.He looked a bundle of nerves.
Fed's backhand slice return will just not cut it against a really solid, aggressive opponent. The forehand looks a little flaky, with a lot of unforced errors coming from that side. 
It seems that the new grass at Wimbledon is a little slower, and this definitely helps Sonego. Fed would actually love a fast court, where the sliced serve works well, and the slice return stays down and slides. Also the problem with a slower court is that rallies are a few shots longer, as players get to balls they normally would not.
Longer rallies hurt Fed, and stop him from shortening the points (by coming to the net). Federer at 2.5 to 10 is a sucker bet that should be avoided.
 

I think Djokovic is beatable. He has not played brilliant tennis, but it has been measured, quite similar to Berretttini. Is he so much better than his opponents .... hmmm. 
At the French Musetti was 2 sets up, and so was Tsitsipas. Was it a tennis conundrum, or a refueling problem? Both Musetti and Tsitsipas ran out of gas. Both are young, and both are unsure of how to refuel and reset the body after vigorous previous exercise. Tsitsipas started the French open final at no more than 70% physical capacity.
Djokovic is a seasoned campaigner, and he/they know how to reset him and get back to almost 100% capacity. But after a rest day, the energy levels are probably equal. No reason why Garin can't take a set here. But he has to play smart, and hopefully they have looked at the Jack Draper match.
Garin is more than able to win a set here.

I think it is the end for Fed today. I watched all three matches he played. Against Mannarino he struggled. Gasquet was already defeated before he stepped on court. His game was like hitting marshmallows for Fed. Fed played poorly against Norrie, but Norrie actually played worse.He looked a bundle of nerves.
Fed's backhand slice return will just not cut it against a really solid, aggressive opponent. The forehand looks a little flaky, with a lot of unforced errors coming from that side. 
It seems that the new grass at Wimbledon is a little slower, and this definitely helps Sonego. Fed would actually love a fast court, where the sliced serve works well, and the slice return stays down and slides. Also the problem with a slower court is that rallies are a few shots longer, as players get to balls they normally would not.
Longer rallies hurt Fed, and stop him from shortening the points (by coming to the net). Federer at 2.5 to 10 is a sucker bet that should be avoided.
 

Both matches are hideous. Norrie can hardly hit the ball, and Fed has been poor. The Kyrigos game, Felix is all over the place. Both matches are crap.

Berretini v Bedene
Quite a tricky match simply because they have both breezed past their opponents, neither really being tested. One thing that has really impressed me with Berritini is his serving. When he needs a first serve he has it ready.
I remember the Aussie open this year playing Anderson 1st round. He was 4-5  and 0-40, and found 11 straight 1st serves ( Anderson had another couple of break points in the game). 11 rockets in a row is insane. Yesterday Shapavalov smacked Murray behind a 1st serve of 32% (1st and 2nd set). Then he actually made some serves in the 3rd set and it was lights out. So on grass serving big is just huge.
Against van de Sandschulp Berretini faced 2 set points in the 3rd set and found 5 first serves (I think he was 4-5 or 5-6 down). So he has a ridic weapon in his arsenal.
What big serving does is empower a player. He knows he will win his serve easily, and he plays '1st strike' tennis against an opponent. So you get this weird herky-jerky, stop start game with no rhythm. 
In 2020-2021 Berritini has played 16 matches in the slams, winning 12 times. Only 3 tiimes has he played a match of more than 3 sets when winning.
Two bets I like are Berritini in 3 sets and under 35.5  games. For me the 3:0 set score is a good option at odds of 1.75 , as I think you may see 1 breaker here.
 
Ivashka v J. Thompson
Neither look too flash so far, though Ivashka over Chardy was a good win. Thompson having played a 5 setter and a 4 setter may be feeling it, and I would be going Ivashka here.
 
Auger-Alissime v Kyrigos
 
 
Alissime has been working very hard with Toni Nadal. Conditioning makes a huge difference, as it slows/ reduces the mental fatigue. This guy is super fit and highly motivated. One thing that stood out in his match with Ymer, was how tough the court was to play on. Shadows all over the place, which makes timing and seeing the ball really difficult.
Today this match is 2nd on court # 1 (after the Radacanu match). I just feel that Kyrigos may be a little tired and hurting.
Interesting in that Aliassime is 1.7 to win
I would rather take him to win 3:0 and in another bet win 3:1  (both of these at odds 4.1+).
 
Fritz v Zverev
 
Fritz has played 7 matches in the majors this year.  5 of these have been 4 sets or more. Samos-Vinoles, Opelka,  Djokovic, Koepfer, Nakashima, Johnston . In none of these matches have there been a 6-0 or 6-1 set. So this guy will not lie down, and is a tough competitor. Possibly an upset here, as Zverev could go off the rails.here.
I see a minimum of 4 sets here as the trend continues... and will take Fritz to win outright in a small long shot.
 
Federer v Norrie
 
The old Federer is making an appearance as the rust comes off his game. He is getting sharper and Sharper, and I don't think we' see a repeat of his forehand being so wobbly and inconsistent. Norrie has had a great year,  beating Dan Evans at the Australian, but he is not a world beater. Just a grinder, with a strange left handed style that takes some getting used to.
 
I think Fed wins this easily. The 3-0 scoreline in sets at 2.93 looks good and the under 38.5 games also at odds of 1.84
 
Medvedev v Cilic
 
Medvedev playing fantastico tennis. The match against Struff was excellent. Both players playing exceptional tennis. One of the matches of the tourn for me. And Medvedev had to play great to win ... no freebees there.
Medvedev is a 3 set machine. Played 14 matches at the majors this year and 11 of them have been 3 setters. Medvedev is deceptively good at returning serve, and should have Cilic in trouble early. Look for it, because if he has him under pressure early (first 3 serve games from Cilic struggling), it's a no contest.
For me Medvedev really justifies his 2nd seeding here, and could destroy Cilic.  I like the 0:3 set scoreline and the Aisan -5.5 for medvedev at 1.75
 
 
A couple of woman's matches look profitable. I don't think Kerber can be feeling too flash after a marathon in the previous round. I would be betting against her. I think Radacanu has a huge chance of upsetting Cirstea, especially  with the home crowd bringing such energy. For me Barty always looks vulnerable.
 
Kerber, Angelique v Sasnovich, Aliaksandra
2-Way Odds (12) 2
4.70
Cirstea, Sorana v Raducanu, Emma
2-Way Odds (12) 2
2.58
Barty, Ashleigh v Siniakova, Katerina
2-Way Odds (12) 2
3.96
Stake
Max. Payout
XXX
YYY.9
 
Just a longshot treble for a fiver at 48 to 1

Berretini v Bedene
Quite a tricky match simply because they have both breezed past their opponents, neither really being tested. One thing that has really impressed me with Berritini is his serving. When he needs a first serve he has it ready.
I remember the Aussie open this year playing Anderson 1st round. He was 4-5  and 0-40, and found 11 straight 1st serves ( Anderson had another couple of break points in the game). 11 rockets in a row is insane. Yesterday Shapavalov smacked Murray behind a 1st serve of 32% (1st and 2nd set). Then he actually made some serves in the 3rd set and it was lights out. So on grass serving big is just huge.
Against van de Sandschulp Berretini faced 2 set points in the 3rd set and found 5 first serves (I think he was 4-5 or 5-6 down). So he has a ridic weapon in his arsenal.
What big serving does is empower a player. He knows he will win his serve easily, and he plays '1st strike' tennis against an opponent. So you get this weird herky-jerky, stop start game with no rhythm. 
In 2020-2021 Berritini has played 16 matches in the slams, winning 12 times. Only 3 tiimes has he played a match of more than 3 sets when winning.
Two bets I like are Berritini in 3 sets and under 35.5  games. For me the 3:0 set score is a good option at odds of 1.75 , as I think you may see 1 breaker here.
 
Ivashka v J. Thompson
Neither look too flash so far, though Ivashka over Chardy was a good win. Thompson having played a 5 setter and a 4 setter may be feeling it, and I would be going Ivashka here.
 
Auger-Alissime v Kyrigos
 
 
Alissime has been working very hard with Toni Nadal. Conditioning makes a huge difference, as it slows/ reduces the mental fatigue. This guy is super fit and highly motivated. One thing that stood out in his match with Ymer, was how tough the court was to play on. Shadows all over the place, which makes timing and seeing the ball really difficult.
Today this match is 2nd on court # 1 (after the Radacanu match). I just feel that Kyrigos may be a little tired and hurting.
Interesting in that Aliassime is 1.7 to win
I would rather take him to win 3:0 and in another bet win 3:1  (both of these at odds 4.1+).
 
Fritz v Zverev
 
Fritz has played 7 matches in the majors this year.  5 of these have been 4 sets or more. Samos-Vinoles, Opelka,  Djokovic, Koepfer, Nakashima, Johnston . In none of these matches have there been a 6-0 or 6-1 set. So this guy will not lie down, and is a tough competitor. Possibly an upset here, as Zverev could go off the rails.here.
I see a minimum of 4 sets here as the trend continues... and will take Fritz to win outright in a small long shot.
 
Federer v Norrie
 
The old Federer is making an appearance as the rust comes off his game. He is getting sharper and Sharper, and I don't think we' see a repeat of his forehand being so wobbly and inconsistent. Norrie has had a great year,  beating Dan Evans at the Australian, but he is not a world beater. Just a grinder, with a strange left handed style that takes some getting used to.
 
I think Fed wins this easily. The 3-0 scoreline in sets at 2.93 looks good and the under 38.5 games also at odds of 1.84
 
Medvedev v Cilic
 
Medvedev playing fantastico tennis. The match against Struff was excellent. Both players playing exceptional tennis. One of the matches of the tourn for me. And Medvedev had to play great to win ... no freebees there.
Medvedev is a 3 set machine. Played 14 matches at the majors this year and 11 of them have been 3 setters. Medvedev is deceptively good at returning serve, and should have Cilic in trouble early. Look for it, because if he has him under pressure early (first 3 serve games from Cilic struggling), it's a no contest.
For me Medvedev really justifies his 2nd seeding here, and could destroy Cilic.  I like the 0:3 set scoreline and the Aisan -5.5 for medvedev at 1.75
 
 
A couple of woman's matches look profitable. I don't think Kerber can be feeling too flash after a marathon in the previous round. I would be betting against her. I think Radacanu has a huge chance of upsetting Cirstea, especially  with the home crowd bringing such energy. For me Barty always looks vulnerable.
 
Kerber, Angelique v Sasnovich, Aliaksandra
2-Way Odds (12) 2
4.70
Cirstea, Sorana v Raducanu, Emma
2-Way Odds (12) 2
2.58
Barty, Ashleigh v Siniakova, Katerina
2-Way Odds (12) 2
3.96
Stake
Max. Payout
XXX
YYY.9
 
Just a longshot treble for a fiver at 48 to 1

I quite like Shapavalov to beat Murray in straight sets today.
One thing that Murray does (and always has), is use matches as warm ups and training sessions. It was never in doubt that he would beat Otte. But he drew the match out, and when needed to, stepped up and won easily. He wanted the court time in his legs, as well as an extra 1.5 hours on center. Easier to find your match fitness this way.
But I think Shapavalov just dominates today. One player at the peak of his physical performance, while the other on the way down. Shapavalov winning 3:0 is 13 to 10. I could not resist a little flutter on Keys to beat Mertens. 
012501777
02/07/21 09:59 Mertens, Elise vs Keys, Madison 2-Way Odds (12) - 2 1.93 Shapovalov, Denis vs Murray, Andy Correct Set Score - 3:0 2.41  
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
Two best players in the men's side for me .... Rublev and Medvedev. Rublev was awesome in just blasting Harris off the court. Crazy, accurate, relentless hitting. Brilliant display!  I just see the same happening today against Fognini. I like Garin, who had an easy win, over Martinez who had a tough match with Monfils,
I also think Seb Korda is underrated. Just quitely cruising along, and a decent price for the win.
 
1012501803 02/07/21 10:06 Fognini, Fabio v Rublev, Andrey Correct Set Score 0:3 1.90 Garin, Cristian v Martinez, Pedro 2-Way Odds (12) 11.37 Evans, Daniel v Korda, Sebastian   2-Way Odds (12) 21.98    

These guys like Chardy can avoid playing all year by just winning 2 or 3 matches in each of the majors. Brings in 400k for 6 weeks work. They are bringing everything these 5 weeks as it sets up the year.

These guys like Chardy can avoid playing all year by just winning 2 or 3 matches in each of the majors. Brings in 400k for 6 weeks work. They are bringing everything these 5 weeks as it sets up the year.

Bedene to beat Nishioka
Chardy  to beat Ivashka
Fritz to beat Johnson

Two men's players who have impressed the most for me have been Medvedev and Rublev. Medvedev looked very good against Struff, and Rublev just demolishing players.
My dad was a tennis coach. I could play by the age of 5 or 6. Used to serve at least 1000 balls a week.Today, I can fall outta bed with a hangover and still serve the eyes out of the ball. It's endless practice and muscle memory,.Out of the under cooked guys that have not played much warm up or practice matches Querry, Fritz, Kyrigos all made it through. All of them are GREAT servers, and it's a part of the game that does not go away .... practice or no practice.
A couple of long shot surprises today...
For Monfils to go 5 sets with a qualifier must be a worry. A long match with plenty of lactic acid residue will make him vulnerable. Martinez to win at 18 to 10.
Jermey Chardy came through a tough match against Karatsev, that I did not expect. Won the 1st 2 sets in a tie breaker (7-4 and 8-6), which shows his toughness. AT 11.2 to 10 against Ivashka it's a bet I'll take.
Marc Polmans  to beat Garin at 20 to 10. Garin not looking so flash against a qualifier in first round.
 
I'm finding that trebles work very well in tennis. But don't fall in love with anyone. Don't include the same player in multiple different bets. Also don't mix two longish shots in the same bet. A 3 legged bet with a  long shot with two favorites works well. My own preference is to avoid woman's tennis which is just totally inconsistent (yesterday a prime example with Andrescu making 37 unforced errors in 15 games. FFS this is the PRO's, not club tennis. 2.5 points given away every game which is ridiculous)
Bets like the following work for me, and you probably only need 3 wins in every 10 to be ahead.
SO Nishikori > Thompson  |  Chardy > Ivashka | Medvedev under 32.5 games gives 3.25
Marc Polmans > Garin | Monfils v Martenez over 38.5 games (need a tie breaker and a 4 set match to win) pays 4.66 to 1
Querry to win | Bedene to win | Fritz to win | Cilic to win  pays 3.1
 
Also , if you can try and find an in play match where the favorite lost the 1st set. In woman's tennis this can be profitable. So Sakkari lost 1st set 5-7 to SHelby Rogers. I would expect Sakkari to win this match so odds of 12 to 10 are great. But I'll hook this bet up with another longer shot and lower my stake substantially ( I don't like betting woman's tennis).
 

Two men's players who have impressed the most for me have been Medvedev and Rublev. Medvedev looked very good against Struff, and Rublev just demolishing players.
My dad was a tennis coach. I could play by the age of 5 or 6. Used to serve at least 1000 balls a week.Today, I can fall outta bed with a hangover and still serve the eyes out of the ball. It's endless practice and muscle memory,.Out of the under cooked guys that have not played much warm up or practice matches Querry, Fritz, Kyrigos all made it through. All of them are GREAT servers, and it's a part of the game that does not go away .... practice or no practice.
A couple of long shot surprises today...
For Monfils to go 5 sets with a qualifier must be a worry. A long match with plenty of lactic acid residue will make him vulnerable. Martinez to win at 18 to 10.
Jermey Chardy came through a tough match against Karatsev, that I did not expect. Won the 1st 2 sets in a tie breaker (7-4 and 8-6), which shows his toughness. AT 11.2 to 10 against Ivashka it's a bet I'll take.
Marc Polmans  to beat Garin at 20 to 10. Garin not looking so flash against a qualifier in first round.
 
I'm finding that trebles work very well in tennis. But don't fall in love with anyone. Don't include the same player in multiple different bets. Also don't mix two longish shots in the same bet. A 3 legged bet with a  long shot with two favorites works well. My own preference is to avoid woman's tennis which is just totally inconsistent (yesterday a prime example with Andrescu making 37 unforced errors in 15 games. FFS this is the PRO's, not club tennis. 2.5 points given away every game which is ridiculous)
Bets like the following work for me, and you probably only need 3 wins in every 10 to be ahead.
SO Nishikori > Thompson  |  Chardy > Ivashka | Medvedev under 32.5 games gives 3.25
Marc Polmans > Garin | Monfils v Martenez over 38.5 games (need a tie breaker and a 4 set match to win) pays 4.66 to 1
Querry to win | Bedene to win | Fritz to win | Cilic to win  pays 3.1
 
Also , if you can try and find an in play match where the favorite lost the 1st set. In woman's tennis this can be profitable. So Sakkari lost 1st set 5-7 to SHelby Rogers. I would expect Sakkari to win this match so odds of 12 to 10 are great. But I'll hook this bet up with another longer shot and lower my stake substantially ( I don't like betting woman's tennis).
 

Having watched both days of Wimbledon so far, I have been surprised by how slippery and green the covered courts are. It kind of makes sense that you would get an unexpected surface, simply because nobody knows how the grass reacts to 'indoor' conditions. But the two covered courts are definitely different to those outdoors.
Question: With matches to be made up, where are those scheduled in to play? So does the order of play take precedence? 
A few games I like today.
Karatsev to beat Chardy at 6/10  . I think the grass suites a solid player, with great balance. No more solid than Karatsev, while Chardy is coming to the end of his career.
Querry to beat Carreno-Busta
I think Dimitrov beats Verdasco quite easily. I lighter, more agile guy will dominate on the grass.
Interesting game with Tsonga and Ymer. I just feel that the Tsonga serve could be the difference in what should be a tight match. I expect at least 1  tie breaker here, and Tsonga to win, in a match that goes at least 4 sets.
A surprise for me is too see Fritz at odds of 1.96 against Nakashima. Can only be because Fritz has not prepared on grass, but these odds way to big for me. 

So, some thoughts on the first round. What I am looking for are the good players that had bad days, and the average picks that had great days. Very strange to see short hitters doing well. F Molinaria and Cabrera Bello both at 3 under. I don't think Russel Henley can repeat yesterdays round (-4). I would be looking to bet against him.
5 most impressive players on the course yesterday. Koepka, Oosthuizen, Schauffele, Wolff and Rahm.
Koepka was solid, but a crazy shot on the par 3 3rd hole torpedoed him.  
Wolff was only 1 under par, but he made 8 birdies. The par 3's don't fit his eye, as he was 3 over on those 4 holes.
Schauffele had a very solid card. 4 birdies and 2 bogeys for 2 under.
Oosthuizen was insanely good. 1 Bogey on the card, and in absolute cruise control. He will definitely benefit today from the early start. He must finish his round on the 8th and 9th hole, which is great for him. Groove the shot you want to hit into the 8th on the range, and he will probably make birdie on the 9th hole. Even on the par 3's, he was puttng for birdie all day.
I would add one player to my outright winner bets. Hideki Matsuyama hit the ball great. He has some game.
Has big advantage in going out early when the greens are pristine.On the flip side, I don't think Rory is gonna shoot lights out today. He had bad luck on 13 hole, when his foot slipped, but he made birdie on 12 and chipped in as well. One guy I think is going to do miles better today is Bryson deChambeau. He was actually really unlucky on the 13th hole, where he missed his 2nd to the green and it rolled back into a filled divot. He would be thinking 'eagle' or 'birdie' and come up with a 6.
Head to head I am taking;
Fransesco Molinari to beat Russel Hendley at 1.9
Again Rahm to beat Rory at odds of 1.7 (Rahm has just got so much more game, and is fantastic around the greens)
Mathew Fitzpatrick to beat Daniel Berger at 1.9
 
 
 

I think Higgo was 'given' the Palmetto but with 3 wins in his last 6 starts he has to be an outside shot. 

Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.
There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;
1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.
2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.
3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.
So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.
An example : Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.
I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?
I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.
Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    
Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.
Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).
Top Saffer ... Higgo.
For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)
My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!
Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me
 
 

Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
Winner from
FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
 
For me a couple of bets I do like.
NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
Spieth not to make cut 3.75
Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
 
FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
Winner from
FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
 
For me a couple of bets I do like.
NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
Spieth not to make cut 3.75
Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
 
FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.
There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;
1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.
2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.
3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.
So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.
An example : Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.
I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?
I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.
Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    
Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.
Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).
Top Saffer ... Higgo.
For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)
My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!
Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me
 
 

Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
Winner from
FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
 
For me a couple of bets I do like.
NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
Spieth not to make cut 3.75
Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
 
FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
Winner from
FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
 
For me a couple of bets I do like.
NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
Spieth not to make cut 3.75
Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
 
FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Torrey south only has 3 par 5's. This is important, as it is one less hole where the big bombers can pick up strokes.  I think the 6th hole has been converted to a par 4, but this hole really favors a left hander, as they don't have to hit the drive over the edge of the canyon (hole dog legs left to right).
There are 4 par 3's, and all of them are difficult. The third hole, down to the sea, in the corner, has about 8 different tee'ing boxes, and they can make it super tricky. Small green, cross wind, elevation change... good luck. The 8th hole is another tricky one, with a double tier, blind green, bunkers behind. Go too long you will not get up and down.. The 11th is a brute into the sea breeze. The 16th ringed with danger, requiring great shot. Too long, it's double bogey time. Left and right are bunkers playing onto a sloping green. The back of the green falls away, and the Tee box is lower than the green, making the wind unpredictable. Nasty hole. Par is good.
These par 3's  will definitely favor a great iron player (Morikowa and Rahm) ranked 1 and 2 in shots gained Tee to Green. A lot will also depend on how well a hole fits a players natural distance/shot. So some may have a full club into a hole. So look at the results on the par 3's because the guys that are even or under par each round here have a perfect distance. 
Looking closer at the stats. A few combinations of stats stand out.
Driving Accuracy and driving distance. Obviously straight and long is a winner.  I almost think you can exclude anybody who does not keep it in the fairway at least  55% of the time. With 14 drives you are in the rough 7 times. Good luck with that!  The rough/distance to green will crush them. Out of the big guns it includes Mickelson, Gary Woodland, Speith and weirdly enough DeChambeau. I have a weird feeling that bomb and gouge will not work here, as there are too many bunkers guarding the front of the greens  (see the stats here https://www.pgatour.com/stats/stat.102.html).
To me, the best holes to watch will be the par 4 2nd hole (almost reachable) 389 yard (somebody is gonna pound one close), and the par 5 13th.  621 yards, but they should have some sea breeze assistance. A big bomber with  365+ yards off the Tee will find this monster in 2.  
Tee to green and approach to green look very important. So I am making an adjustment to the above posts prediction.
At least 3 of these 5 (Dechambeau, Speith, Mcllroy, Mickelson and Koepka) don't make the cut. Prob the 3 others and one of DeChambeau and Koepka.
Winner from
FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN  SCHAUFFELE and MORIKOWA.  Can Rahm just keep his cool, and not blow up. The guy has so much game!
 
For me a couple of bets I do like.
NO HOLE IN ONE at odds of even money (the par 3's are just too difficult)
Mcllroy not to make cut 3.75
Spieth not to make cut 3.75
Mickelson not to make cut 2.2 for me this bet is a gift. I expect him to shoot mid /high 70's both rounds.
 
FOR ME the worst bet is a 3 ball bet. You are just not getting the odds to find a winner here. If you can find matchups, ie player A v player B its much better.
1st round Head to head match ups for me ....
John Rahm to beat Rory at 1.7   I think this one is a slam dunk. I expect Rory to shoot 4+ over 1st round. 
Schauffele to beat Koepka 1.9
Ootshuizen to beat Casey 1.9
Higgo to beat Lieshman also 1.9

Having lived in San Diego for 5 years, I spent a lot of time enjoying my golf (mostly on Torrey Pines North and South courses).. Probably played 50 rounds or more on each. I was a good golfer in the scratch to 3 handicap range.
There are few courses around the world that will set up as difficult as Torrey pines South, in US open conditions. Three main factors;
1) The length. Even for big hitters, it is damn long, and it's at sea level.
2) The rough. They used to play the Buick Invitational at Torrey (now the Farmer's Insurance), but when they grow that rough, the difficulty level goes through the roof. The week after the Buick, people camp in the parking lot to be first to play a 'PGA' layout/conditioned course. Rounds take 6 hours, because nobody can find their ball when they hit it in the rough. It's insane, 6 inch rough, over seeded (like strands of thick string). Much tougher rough than in Dubai, Leopard creek, Augusta. In the rough you are probably dropping a stroke.
3) The sea breeze. Torrey is right on the Pacific. The wind rolls in, hits the cliffs at Black's beach, and creates a tough wall to penetrate. The low stroke holes (into that breeze) are brutal (hole 1, and hole 12 especially). The cross wind holes like #2, #4, #5 require ball shaping to counter the wind. I did watch Tiger play one year, and he made mincemeat of the wind, but he was a reasonably good golfer ... But until you see it, you can't actually believe how well/hard they strike the ball.
So with this in mind, this course is an accurate, medium to low, BIG ball strikers paradise. Guys that can't average 285 yards or better off the T have zero chance to win here. They will be 60 - 75 yards behind a big bomber.
An example : Brendon Todd, who leads in accuracy off the Tee, but 'only' hits it 275 yards won't even make the cut. Long irons into greens are a disaster, because the green side rough is right in play all day.
I like DeChambeau, McIIroy, Champ, Johnson, Finau, Hovland, Rahm, Koepka as big ball hitters. I like Johnson as a ball striker the best, but his putting gibbers have come back.  Koepka, the knees are still not 100%, Mcllroy can't putt and has a double/triple bogey hand grenade in his pocket..  So DeChambeau  ...does drive and gouge work again, or Rahm?
I would add San Diego native, Schauffele (who would have played a ton of golf on that course). Mickelson won't get away with hitting it in the rough on this course and he probably misses the cut for me.
Five Saffers could be in the mix. Oosthuizen, Higgo, van Rooyen, Grace and Nienaber.    
Grace because of his low ball flight, Oosthuizen because he is ridiculously good (and #1 in putting) for a small guy (also grew up playing in the wind on the coast)., Higgo the hottest golfer on the planet (the guy has seriously impressive mindset, and maturity for a 21 year old). He also has this crazy  easy power.
Nienaber who's gonna send DeChambeau to the funny farm with his 365 yard drives and swing speed.  But mentally he is not ready to win. The tournament he blew (I think between Higgo's wins on the Euro tour is a prime example).
Top Saffer ... Higgo.
For the others ... (Fritelli no form, Schwartzel's temper will let him down, Bezuidenthout close but nothing brilliant, Aiken short hitter)
My feeling is that Torrey wipes the floor with the field. Forget 10 under, the winner will be closer to even par. Whoever handles this mental challenge  the best, and keeps himself under control will triumph. Cut is probably +6 and playing + golf is a weird head space for pro golfers. This could be carnage!!!
Winner comes from DeCHAMBEAU, FINAU, RAHM, HOVLAND, HIGGO, OOSTHUIZEN for me