neilovan

The Rotterdam tournament is tricky. Balls are not the normal and the court is slower. Go and listen to Rublev's interview after yesterday's match. Big servers are not getting the free points they expect. I see a few upsets today. I think Murray loses to a bang in form Alex Bublik. Bublik coming off a tournament win beating Zverev, Bautista Agut and 3 other pretty decent players.  Not much of an upset here, but Ivashka probably beats Harris.  I just don't like Hurkacz on this slower surface. He just looks so ungainly ... would be taking Musetti on the games handicap here. I think Norrie will enjoy the court surface against Khachanov and wins a close one.
In the low odds matchups De Minuar has a perfect style matchup with McDonald, and Krajinovic has similar with Fucsovics. Kwon beats Gaston all day.
 

The Rotterdam tournament is tricky. Balls are not the normal and the court is slower. Go and listen to Rublev's interview after yesterday's match. Big servers are not getting the free points they expect. I see a few upsets today. I think Murray loses to a bang in form Alex Bublik. Bublik coming off a tournament win beating Zverev, Bautista Agut and 3 other pretty decent players.  Not much of an upset here, but Ivashka probably beats Harris.  I just don't like Hurkacz on this slower surface. He just looks so ungainly ... would be taking Musetti on the games handicap here. I think Norrie will enjoy the court surface against Khachanov and wins a close one.
In the low odds matchups De Minuar has a perfect style matchup with McDonald, and Krajinovic has similar with Fucsovics. Kwon beats Gaston all day.
 

Two upcoming games that I do like. Will take them as a double.
First one is Daniel Altmaier to beat Joao Sousa. Altmaier is an up and coming top 30 player. Only 23, tall, right at the peak of his game (ranked 84 in Dec). Altmaier has come down in rank from 186 in 2020 and now sits around 84. Sousa, at 33 years is going the other way, from a high of 44 in 2019 to a rank around 140 now.
Second match is Lorenzo Sonego to beat Carbelles Baena.  Sonego has some game. If you look at his wins he has beaten some very good players. ALcaraz,  Korda, Thiem, Rublev, Monfils. If he half shows up he wins this quite easily. Seems to have found his serving prowess again.
 
The double is 12.5 to 10 which is decent odds.
 
 
 

I remember watching Tsitsipas playing in the next-gen finals. He was playing J Munar (I think). He got mad at dropping his serve, that he started bashing his racquet with his fist at the change over. He hit the racquet so hard, that he had to have an injury timeout and call the trainer. So easy to injure a wrist tendon, or break your (million dollar) wrist. Really! That behavior is moronic and immature!
His handshake to Med after the match was pathetic. Petulant and lame.  Easy to fight, but real character is shown with reconciliation. If you play and give 100% and leave nothing in the tank, it really doesn't matter if you win or lose. You have given everything|  Nadal understands this totally. And that's why he can win and lose with such grace. Tsitsipas is so far away from this mental state ... and it will probably be his biggest stumbling block to becoming a major champion.

I remember watching Tsitsipas playing in the next-gen finals. He was playing J Munar (I think). He got mad at dropping his serve, that he started bashing his racquet with his fist at the change over. He hit the racquet so hard, that he had to have an injury timeout and call the trainer. So easy to injure a wrist tendon, or break your (million dollar) wrist. Really! That behavior is moronic and immature!
His handshake to Med after the match was pathetic. Petulant and lame.  Easy to fight, but real character is shown with reconciliation. If you play and give 100% and leave nothing in the tank, it really doesn't matter if you win or lose. You have given everything|  Nadal understands this totally. And that's why he can win and lose with such grace. Tsitsipas is so far away from this mental state ... and it will probably be his biggest stumbling block to becoming a major champion.

I agree, but there are a couple of things against Nadal.
1) Aussie open not been an incredible hunting ground for Nadal. Just 1 win. Nadal wins the French Open because conditions for his game style are near perfect. The balls, the court, the bounce and probably his bio-rhythms are perfectly in tune.
2) The two handed backhand of Med nullifies the Nadal hook to the backhand corner. A tall player with a solid 2 handed backhand has a much easier time of it.
3) Nadal is getting old, and his body has taken an incredible pounding over the years. His high intensity game is hard to sustain.
4) When Medvedev serves well, he gets a crazy momentum, that is very difficult to stop. He rushes through games, and it builds a lot of pressure.
5) In my opinion, Nadal is hitting the ball way to short. I don't think Med will hit it and come to the net, but you land up chasing the ball all day. It's like playing squash and giving away the 'T'. You fetch the entire match.
I definitely don't think Medvedev wins easily, but he has enough  to get over the line and win the close/important moments in the match.

Check this out.
https://www.tennis.com/news/articles/the-rally-australian-open-nadal-barty-collins-medvedev-finals
Brilliant line in the article... "the drive by handshake" ???? . Medvedev is actually laughing at him, pretty easy to tell what he thinks of Tsitsipas as well???

Everyone is looking at the woman's championship final and just expecting Barty to walk it. But Collins actually has some pretty decent pedigree.  I was chatting with my brother and a friend of his who runs an academy in the States. I rate the friends opinion, he knows his stuff (his mom also won a Wimbledon doubles title 1955 -- Anne Shilcock) . 
Two kids at the academy with an interview. That was a terrific woman.
He watched that semi and was impressed with a few things. Collins didn't go wild with celebration when she won. She celebrated like she expected to be there, not like it was a modern miracle. It's very subtle, but it shows the players mindset. The second thing he told me that she was NCAA champion not once but twice. That's some going, because it is very very competitive.
I would be looking again at the first couple of games of the match. Can Collins hold serve .... can she apply pressure to Barty's serve? I don't think Collins is gonna beat herself (like Keys did). She looks a tough and fit competitor.  I would be going for the Collins +4.5 handicap here, again small bet.
as a footnote; what is so interesting with Barty is her serve. She has a fantastic serving motion. Very smooth, won't break down under pressure. She is only 5'5 but when she wants to crank a 1st serve, gets off the ground by about 3/4 of a foot. So she serves those like a player that's 6'1. 

Last year Medvedev played Tsitsipas in the semi final at the Aussie open. Won comfortably , 6-4, 6-2, 7-5 .   Is Tsitsipas version 2022 much better than Tsitsipas version 2021? I don't think so. Maybe he looks fitter and stronger, but technique wise he looks the same player as last year. 
But I think the current version of Medvedev is definitely superior to the prior versions. Mentally, he is so much tougher, and in control. He used to have those sarcastic gestures to his support/coach staff. You don't see that negative garbage any more.  And that stuff is huge, because it was one of the ways he would beat himself in the past. 
2 things; 
I think Medvedev is also gonna serve miles better in this upcoming match (than he did against Felix).  
Both Tsitsipas and Medvedev like to play quick. The tempo and pace of play was very slow against Felix. It won't happen here, and it will really suite Medvedev.  1.65 puts Medvedev at 60% to win. I think he is closer to 68%, which translate into odds of 1.47  (calc 1/0.68). So a price of 1.75 is great, considering bet365 is 1.4 for Medvedev to win.
I expect a similar result to last year. 

Someone like Keys really only has one style of play. Hard hitting, aggressive, going for shots. Short points, first strike tennis. When it works it looks great, and is very difficult to beat. But if Barty finds a solution earlier it could be tickets...
But the big problem against Barty is that she has so much talent, and can really play in multiple styles in a particular match.  She can slice that backhand all day, but also come over it and hit it hard just as easily. She can roll in a first serve, or crank it, or slice it wide to the forehand. She has so many weapons at her disposal, and she understands when and how to use them. That ability to adapt, and solve in match problems makes her an extremely difficult, tricky opponent.
I would be having a close look at the first couple of games. How easily does Keys hold her serve? Can she compete and put pressure on Barty serve games. Take this bet possibly in-play after 1 or two games.
If I was backing Keys in any form, I would be taking her outright to win with a small stake. Generous odds, and if she gets on a roll, she could actually over-power Barty. It's quite odd to play against someone who is playing power tennis. The game has no rhythm, and becomes stop-start and herky- jerky. 
You also can't really discount two excellent wins over Badosa and Krejcikova. Flattened both of them.

Someone like Keys really only has one style of play. Hard hitting, aggressive, going for shots. Short points, first strike tennis. When it works it looks great, and is very difficult to beat. But if Barty finds a solution earlier it could be tickets...
But the big problem against Barty is that she has so much talent, and can really play in multiple styles in a particular match.  She can slice that backhand all day, but also come over it and hit it hard just as easily. She can roll in a first serve, or crank it, or slice it wide to the forehand. She has so many weapons at her disposal, and she understands when and how to use them. That ability to adapt, and solve in match problems makes her an extremely difficult, tricky opponent.
I would be having a close look at the first couple of games. How easily does Keys hold her serve? Can she compete and put pressure on Barty serve games. Take this bet possibly in-play after 1 or two games.
If I was backing Keys in any form, I would be taking her outright to win with a small stake. Generous odds, and if she gets on a roll, she could actually over-power Barty. It's quite odd to play against someone who is playing power tennis. The game has no rhythm, and becomes stop-start and herky- jerky. 
You also can't really discount two excellent wins over Badosa and Krejcikova. Flattened both of them.

Keys had a bad last year, but her rankings have been top 20 from 2015 right through 2021. She can really play ... just needs to get out of her own way at times.
https://www.wtatennis.com/players/316959/madison-keys/rankings-history

SHe was in a US open final, but never kicked on somehow.
I never saw the Badosa match, but was quite shocked at the result. For me the biggest disappointment in this whole woman's draw was Tauson losing. Looked like the heat just zapped her. Couldn't move. Needs to put in the gym and road work, and take her fitness up a level or two. And for a professional athlete it is easy, as you are 100% in control. How much do you want it? Both Tauson and Kostyk are 19, but Kostyk is physically miles ahead of her.

Interestingly, in an interview, Toni Nadal spoke about the reason his nephew has never smashed a racquet. ... “Nadal has never broken a racquet. It would be showing a lack of respect to people who actually have to buy the equipment to play the sport,” said Toni.04 Aug 2021

Monfils is simply playing fantastic tennis. Had a reasonably easy run, only facing the 16th seed in Garin. But here he is in the quarters having not dropped a set. In 12 sets he has also had 5 sets where he has broken serve multiple times. That ratio is big, showing solid return games. Married life is treating him well, and he looks very happy on the court.
Berrettini has a cannon for a serve, but for me he has a really weak backhand (at top 10 level of course). His slice is good, but a slice will not make a passing shot against against a very athletic opponent, who closes the net well.  So a solid volley behind the approach to the backhand will win Monfils plenty of points. I think Monfils peppers his backhand all day, and the tactic wins him the match.  
I have a small bet going (can't keep my discipline when there is nothing happening), on a treble, with 1 leg in. Hopefully the other two can get over the line. My feeling is that Nadal has an incredible opportunity here to possibly win the Aussie and the French open. I think a fully fit Nadal, has too much experience and guile for Shapavalov. 
Kepi got over the line after blowing 4 match points, but holy cow, how bad is that Sabalenka serve. If you slo-mo the serve : There is a weird wrist role just before she reaches up to hit the ball (maybe as a junior she served with a heavy racquet, it's very strange). You can't unteach it and under pressure a player will revert back to it.  After breaking back to 4-4 in the 3rd set, she served 3 doubles in the 9th game.
Shapovalov, Denis vs Nadal, Rafael 2-Way Odds (12) - 21.36 Kanepi, Kaia vs Sabalenka, Aryna 2-Way Odds (12) - 1WON2.63 Monfils, Gael vs Berrettini, Matteo 2-Way Odds (12) - 12.32 Stake Max. Payout 100.00 829.82

Interestingly, in an interview, Toni Nadal spoke about the reason his nephew has never smashed a racquet. ... “Nadal has never broken a racquet. It would be showing a lack of respect to people who actually have to buy the equipment to play the sport,” said Toni.04 Aug 2021

I'm entirely capable of defining the word 'acceptable'. The only reason McEnroe came to be 'loved' as you put it is because he became a parody. People began to find his behaviour funny and didn't take it seriously and he began to play up to that, but that certainly wasn't the prevailing attitude when he was first doing it and people found it offensive. As for 'jumping in' with my opinion, that's entirely my prerogative just as it was yours to give your opinion. We clearly differ in our thoughts about what constitutes acceptable behaviour and that's fine. But the idea you get to say what you think without anybody else responding with a contrary opinion isn't what this forum is about.
From my perspective, just because something is prevalent doesn't make it acceptable which is what you seem to be suggesting. There are lots of examples of things in society that go on all the time but which nobody would call acceptable. Comparing smashing a racket with removing a football shirt after scoring a goal isn't a fair comparison either. When that happens it's celebrating something positive. I don't think you can say the same about smashing a racket.

I was a witness to a match where a local hero who manages the courts, after losing the match, grabbed the opponent's racket and destroyed it
There was no one to punish him somehow

100% agree, It's bad form, and it's bad to show your opponent your poor mental state (in any form of competition). You don't do yourself any favors. The fan's are just laughing because they see someone who does do it (Djokovic), having a meltdown.
I once played a guy in junior comp (1976 when racquets were wood and expensive). He got so mad he hurled his racquet against the fence. Missed the fence and flew over into a tree, where it got stuck 5 meters up. He only had 1 racquet and had to forfeit. One of my best wins ??

It's not an acceptable part of the game. If it were, players wouldn't be penalised for doing it. And it does set a bad example like @neilovansaid.

Very surprised by how poorly Zverev played. I didn't bet it, but expected him to win. Didn't like him smashing the racquet to pieces after the 1st game of the 2nd set. It's such a bad example from a 'pro'. Unacceptable behavior! Never seen Nadal break a racquet!
For me Zverev and Tsitsipas are very similar. 2nd tier (when compared to Djoko,Nadal, Medvedev) with some internal issues, and suspect decision making and shot selection.
Just watched the Halep match. To win 16 points in a row and be on such a roll going into the 3rd set ... and then give it away playing meek and mild tennis, with crazy unforced errors. That's Halep. Every ball hit right back down the middle of the court with a reactive instead of proactive style. She deserved what she got. Cornet cost me two bets this Aussie open  (beating Muguruza and now Halep), but she did keep it together in that 3rd set.

I see the posts regarding Shapavalov and Zverev and for me this match goes in fav of the fav. There is simply no comparison between the two. Shapavalov fell of a cliff after WImbledon while Zverev is getting better and better.  I think the victory at the Olympics has given Zverev the belief, because the way he dismantled Djoko there was frightening. Nobody is playing better 1st strike tennis , behind the serve than him.
Looking for 3 low priced winner today, taken all as singles;
1/23/2022 G Monfils v M Kecmanovic G Monfils 0.22 1/23/2022 A Barty v V Anismova A Barty 0.27 1/23/2022 S Halep v E Cornet S Halep 0.15  
 

I come in peace ...
I said I would not post but I simply could not  help myself. Not looking for an argument here, but do you understand implied odds?  So if somebody takes 100 bets at average odds of 3 to 10, at what win rate do you need to win to be profitable? Well the calculation is  1/1.3 or 76.9% . So If you are winning at a rate of over 76.9% you are winning, otherwise you are losing.  If you take 40 bets at odds of 9 to 10 then the calc is 1/1.9 or 52% win rate needed. When somebody says 'I'm winning 90% of my bets' the immediate question should be "ok, but at what odds".

A question that one should ask about odds is where these odds come from, who makes them, and what is the intention behind the given odds.
The bookmakers buy these odds from companies that produce them, and then make minor tweeks. But the companies that produce the odds are packed with super smart actuarial types, that have real knowledge, backed by mountains of data (at a level that we don't have). If you think you can outsmart them, good luck with that! You have to use what they are giving you as a starting point.
The intention is reasonable clear. The bookmakers want to be on the right side of the bet more often than not. But they have a other interests. The want odds on an event, that will create a balanced book, that gives them maximum volume. If they achieve that, they are in the money with their 5% 'overround' or 'juice'. The bookmakers actually hope you take multi legged bets, because the overround gets compounded by every leg you take, thus, giving them more and more 'juice'.
Calculate the juice is quite easy. Just using a soccer bet, today Arsenal v Burnley. Arsenal home win 1.28, draw 5.25, away win 12 (in this case dont add the 1, so 1.28 is really 2.8 to 10).   So 1/1.28  (home win) is 78.1%, the draw is 1/5.25 is 19% and the away win (1/12) = 8%. So when you add up 78+ 19 + 8 you get 105. SO the bookmakers overround or juice is 5%.  
 
In the current match on bet365 Shapa is 2.37 and Zverev is 1.57 (score 2-5). So 1/1.57 is 63% in fav of Zverev and 1/2.37 is 42%  so the overround is the 5% again (which is about standard).
 

I see the posts regarding Shapavalov and Zverev and for me this match goes in fav of the fav. There is simply no comparison between the two. Shapavalov fell of a cliff after WImbledon while Zverev is getting better and better.  I think the victory at the Olympics has given Zverev the belief, because the way he dismantled Djoko there was frightening. Nobody is playing better 1st strike tennis , behind the serve than him.
Looking for 3 low priced winner today, taken all as singles;
1/23/2022 G Monfils v M Kecmanovic G Monfils 0.22 1/23/2022 A Barty v V Anismova A Barty 0.27 1/23/2022 S Halep v E Cornet S Halep 0.15