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Tennis Tips - January 31 - February 6


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  • 1 month later...

Prajnesh Gunneswaran to beat Daniel Altmaier at 3.20 with BetVictor

Obviously not the favorite, but the odds look rather tasty to me. Gunneswaran plays his heart out in local tournaments and neither had a good start to the season. Altmaier's game also isn't best-suited against the haphazard style Gunneswaran has.

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Mackenzie McDonald to beat Ilya Ivashka at 1.81 with Unibet

Ivashka had a very suspect finish to the previous season and he's yet to play in this one, so I like the odds for McDonald. The American seems to be getting into at least some sort of form and he presented a respectable account of himself in Australia. I was looking for something like 1.60, so more than happy to get 1.81 here.

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And what's your interest in them? I know nothing about Madaras, but I watched Rosenkranz against De Lima and I thought he was surprisingly awful. He had a very exciting end to the last season, but he's started the new one with very poor results. Perhaps indoors will suit him better again, his movement is a bit suspect and that gets exposed on clay.

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15 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

And what's your interest in them? I know nothing about Madaras, but I watched Rosenkranz against De Lima and I thought he was surprisingly awful. He had a very exciting end to the last season, but he's started the new one with very poor results. Perhaps indoors will suit him better again, his movement is a bit suspect and that gets exposed on clay.

Problem with Rozen is that he lives off of all aces or quick points with his serving. The guy can rack up 20 aces but still lose to anyone.

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Christian Garin to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.91 with Unibet

While I do see the angle that will make Baez competitive, I am willing to take the risk given the odds I'm getting in exchange. Garin can be a truly elite player on clay and he did a decent job in Australia, even with the conditions well against him. Baez had that good match against Tsitsipas and he is talented, no doubt, but I just don't see him being a 50/50 proposition against a player of Garin's qualities and pedigree just yet.

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33 minutes ago, CzechPunter said:

Christian Garin to beat Sebastian Baez at 1.91 with Unibet

While I do see the angle that will make Baez competitive, I am willing to take the risk given the odds I'm getting in exchange. Garin can be a truly elite player on clay and he did a decent job in Australia, even with the conditions well against him. Baez had that good match against Tsitsipas and he is talented, no doubt, but I just don't see him being a 50/50 proposition against a player of Garin's qualities and pedigree just yet.

Agree with that thinking. Also, Baez made much harder work of Verdasco than he should have done bearing in mind that Verdasco is a long way from the player he used to be.

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4 hours ago, Torque said:

Agree with that thinking. Also, Baez made much harder work of Verdasco than he should have done bearing in mind that Verdasco is a long way from the player he used to be.

A few years ago I shared my opinion on Garin and Jarry. First Jarry started to make his mark and then Garin won a load of challengers and climbed into top 100 in a season so when Garin were ranked around 90 when that season started I shared my opinion here and thought Jarry probably would win minimum one title and I wrote that I saw Garin as a potential top 30 player by the least. I still haven't changed my mind and the current opinion is that Garin will win more titles on clay.

Garin did well to get to AO round 32 where La Monf got the better of him which I predicted by posting La Monf -8.5 games and just like you say @Torque Baez made it much more complicated than he should have and isn't playing good enough for a win over Garin. Verdasco last week is: say what? He almost lost v Ficovich and later got trashed by Cachin. Verdasco for me = Good night!

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Two upcoming games that I do like. Will take them as a double.

First one is Daniel Altmaier to beat Joao Sousa. Altmaier is an up and coming top 30 player. Only 23, tall, right at the peak of his game (ranked 84 in Dec). Altmaier has come down in rank from 186 in 2020 and now sits around 84. Sousa, at 33 years is going the other way, from a high of 44 in 2019 to a rank around 140 now.

Second match is Lorenzo Sonego to beat Carbelles Baena.  Sonego has some game. If you look at his wins he has beaten some very good players. ALcaraz,  Korda, Thiem, Rublev, Monfils. If he half shows up he wins this quite easily. Seems to have found his serving prowess again.

 

The double is 12.5 to 10 which is decent odds.

 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Judeksi said:

Notes from Ruusuvuori-Vesely match: Vesely looks like he has gained some weight and his movement looks heavy. Only his serve can somehow keep him in the match. A potential player to bet against in the near future.

I've been betting against him for years already..

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Well, seems like Diego's problems weren't limited to that Aussie Open clash. 5 double faults in two service games, at home, that's rather grim for someone who's always been banking on consistency and no errors. Edit: Seems like some physical issues as well, receiving a MTO early on.

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