ElPrincipito007

Taking a quick look I am tempted by Pavlyuchenkova @1,917 (Marathon).
She has a bad record this year and I know Anisimova is a big talent and on a roll but she didn't have the best of draws lately. All in all she is a decent top 20 player.

I am on Zenith @6 (Bwin): Leipzig aren't in the best of form and dropped some points at home lately.
Arsenal to Qualify @1,82 (Unibet): may look a bit strange but their team is simply better. AC Milan are taking points, but I am not convinced by the way they play. I see Arsenal score and take a good position after the first match.

I am sort of away this week and doing any sort of research really is a pain, so I don't want to overdo things. At first glance, nothing really stands out honestly, it's a tight card. I am going to go for this one in the men's, however.
Daniil Medvedev to beat Steve Johnson at 2.00 with Paddy Power
Honestly, I think Medvedev should be the favourite here. He's still young and this fact comes with some poor matches here and there, but he hasn't done much wrong so far in this season apart from losing against Matosevic in his first match of the year and the implosion against Gasquet. Johnson, on the other hand, has only beaten struggling or truly average players. The H2H also stands at 2-0 in Medvedev's favour and one of those wins came in the USA, so a repeat could easily be on the cards. I'd take everything above 1.80.

King - Sela 3.9 Maratonbet
King was very strong on his serve game against Klizhan. He showed strong mentality and when Klizhan was capable to make a rebrak in the third set, he was back from 0:40. Sela's form is very questionable. I watched him against Lara and he throws his racquet all around. Sela is a guy that is capable to destroy the oponent if he has a day, as he did in the first round. In the last two years Sela is loosing in his very first match here.
Lara - Mahut 4.55 Pinnacle
Mahut beat Oliveira, but the stats and many breaks didn't speak well for the French veteran. Now he will meet Lara, who is better player on hard then Oliveira. Still Mahut is the favorit, but as I post yesterday, Mahut said that he has problems with his knee during the previous tournament.
Babos - Bencic 2.23
The odds went up for Babos in Pinnacle, but I think she's got better arguments. Timea won in Taipei and was very game against top players. Bencic is with four losses in a row. She has problems to find her rythme and Babos is a player, who could seek and destroy you in a very short time with her serve.

Liu - Kenin 3.34 Pinnacle
Liu was the only player that managed to take a set from Errani last week at IW challenger. She is a former ¹1 among juniors and won Wimblendon last year. She is well rested, while Kenin already played two matches in the qualifications. Pretty close match it should be with a decend price for Liu.
Flipkens - Makarova 3.54 Pinnacle
Flipkens had some shoulder problems at the beginning of the season. She looked pretty well during Budapest indoor tournament, where she reached the finals in doubles. Flipkens started last year with a surprise 1st round win over Bellis. At the same time Makarova was beaten in the first round, so she will not have points to defend. The correct odds here should be 2.50-2.75 for Flipkens. 

i'm really tempted with Madrid draw or win 1.99 @Marathon
 
PSG will be without neymar. now they will have to attack, which will leave spaces for RM to exploit. Now a win is a very probable result for PSG but i feel Madrid can come away with a draw.

Lisicki - Kenin 2.4 Pinnacle
 
Sabine looked reborn in Taipe. She has enough time to rest after her last time and to prepare for Q. Kenin is close to Top 100, but still is not among those girls. Kenin was beaten by Loeb and Wickmeyer recently, who are on Lisicki's level. In 2015 Sabine reached the semifinal. This is great chance for her to make a nice comeback and to win some points for rankings.

Errani played very strong in the final. Bondarenko didn't have chances, even if she was up 5:1, and as I remember it wasn't two BP, but 6 in the sixth game of the first set. I was for Bondarenko in this match
Kratzer - Kozlova 3.5 Bet365
Just a week ago Kozlova was badly injured during her match with Rodionova. She couldn't finish it. I am pretty sure she missed few days of training. Kateryna lost in the first round of Q in the last two seasons at IW so she will not have points to defend. Kratzer is capable to stun big names. She made that last year. During 2018 she played close matches with Hsieh and Wickmayer, but lost them. I can't see odds to be more than 3 for Kratzer, who will play her very first IW.
Xia - Wu 5.42 Pinnacle
Xia already stunned three favorites. He gave a total of 6 BP chances to his oponents. His serve is solide and he is capable to stun Di Wu, who didn't look great so far during the season. Still Di Wu is a favorite (H2H 1:0 for Wu), but the odds aren't right. Maybe they mustbe close to 4.00 for Xia.
 

K. Bondarenko @1,71 (marathon)
She started the 2018 quite good, losing the final last week in the Indian Wells challenger. Her opponent, Lapko, is a promising young lady but for now, I think Bondarenko is the better player. I expected an odd somewhere around 1,55 so I'll give it a try.

5.5pts D. Dzumhur to beat E. Donskoy 8/11 Boylesports
Taking Dzumhur to win here. Both these two got to the Quarter Finals of this event last year and they have never met but I think Dzumhur is the better player and the better form. He's only really lost to decent players like Rublev, Gasquet and Nadal this year and while it may be a tight match, I expect Dzumhur to see it through. 

Huh, Ellis is the man this week!
Fabio Fognini to beat Aljaz Bedene at 2.00 with Bet365
At 2.00, I have to have a play here, as I think that Fognini will find a way. Better player, massive H2H, seems to care. The 8-0 between the two says a lot imo. I respect Bedene's form, but I wouldn't have Fognini above 1.72 here.

Puetz - Thompson 2.55 Pinnacle
I am not sure what Puetz is doing on such a low level tournaments. He is 30 and specially on indoor is very classy. In his last match he destroyed Kamke. The dude is in great shape. Same for Thompson, but he has a pretty long journey. It will be his 12th match in 11 days. Not sure if he is capable to handle that.

Krajnovic - Pouille 3.06 Pinnacle
Krajnovic is one of the best indoor players around. He is showing improvement of the form after the injury. I was very close today to bet on him vs Simon and I am very sorry to not do it. Pouille, on the same time, was pretty close to lose from Herbert, he was down 3:6 and 0:3 in the tiebreak of the second set, but showed mentality. Last week he was beaten by Rublev.

Osaka - Svitolina 3.16
Osaka destroyed Mladenovic very easy. She played like smaller version of Serina. Hitting big winners and 180+ km/h serves. She did the same with Kontaveit. Svitolina has a lot of points to defend, but she had a close match in her opener. H2H is 2:1 for Osaka, including AO and WTA Tokio wins. Huge odds for Osaka, who I think deserve max 2.50. I suppose the odds for her will drop to around 2.7 before the start of the match.

According to the match in Russia, take for granted this.
 
1.Zenit has won 90% of their last 20-25 Europe League home games.
2.Russia is not the best place to visit.
3.Zenit won all their home matches in the group with the same team they have now.
4.In Scotland they played below their maximum.Kokorin stayed quiet but he can explode at every time, especially home.Its hard to predict Zenit to win or Over 1.5 goals, because they can do the same with Utrecht, but I will definitely go with Zenith.Scotland teams are not something scary, especially on away.

Some nice picks from today. Let's hope the week will kick of nicer than Monday:
 
Katie Boulter - Taylor Townsend 3.5 Bet 365
The season for Townsend started awful. She is 1/3 so far and in her last match was beaten convinsingly by Teichman. Probably she got some problems, because she missed a lot of tournaments or probably her coaches were thinking that she need special trainings. Boulter is improving a lot and she already scored nice wins this season against Abanda and Anderson. I think the match is pretty close. Katie is former Top 10 among juniors and is capable to make big break this season (she is enjoying her career best now after strong 2017)
 
Paquet - Von Deichman 2.78 Pinnacle
Paquet finally started to find her form. She reached QF and SF in her last two tournaments on indoor beating top opponent like Perrin. Von Deichman was beaten already three times this season by outsiders. She had struggled against far weaker opponents as Udvardy. Pretty close match with nice odds.
 
Saez Larra - Muchova 2.30 
 
Not big difference between them in rankings, but Saez Larra showed nice form in Scotland in her previous tournament reaching the SF and beating three favorites. Muchova is nothing special and indoor is not her best surface. I can't see her favorite.
 
Horanski - Ignatik 3.23 Betonline
Horanski played only on indoor this season and he already scored three wins here in the Q, beating Jahn and Vanni in two sets. Ignatik played against better oponents and lost, but he is a guy, who either is on top form, or can't pass first or second round in the tournaments.
 
Lacko - Gojowcik 2.34 Pinnacle
I missed the earlier odds that were around 2.5, but this is still ok. Lacko showed pretty nice form in Sofia with his great serve, only to lost in a close match against in top form Kovalik. Gojowcik injured his foot against Mannarino and I am not sure if he will be able to recover so fast.
 
Arrends/Middlekoop vs Beneteau/Mahut 2.8 Pinnacle
Arrends and Middlekoop are in great form so far. Middlekoop won ATP Sofia's doubles. On the other hand both Beneteau Mahut will enter the singles event here so they will need double focus to be on 100% here to defend their title from last year. Mahut played a total of 7 matches last week, after winning doubles in Rotherdam. Benetau is 0/1 on doubles this season.
 
Dzumhur/Sanchic vs Megrea/Nestor 2.47
Megrea and NEstor are miles away from their best days. Megrea is 1/4 and NEstor is 2/6 this season. Dzumhur and Sanchic teamed up pretty well last season. They reached the final at ATP Moscow (indoor) stunning three favorites. Sanchic played three finals on Challenger level this season, 
 
 

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez to beat Nicolas Jarry at 1.80 with Ladbrokes
GGL is going through some sort of a renaissance at the moment, so I'm willing to chance him to beat Jarry, who's still a Challenger-level player by my standards. He's a really good Challenger player and he usually performs really well against those ranked below, but he's a bit too one-dimensional and that tends to hurt him against players that can find the chinks in his armor. Of course, I am worried about GGL's fitness, longevity, and everything, but he has the right set of weapons for breaking down Jarry eventually, so I think he should be at the 1.57 mark here instead of the 1.80 one.

Inglis - Mrdeza ITF Pert 3.54 Pinnacle
Inglis played some very good matches this season against far better and in form players. On the other hand is Mrdeza, she is totally out of shape. There isn't a single sign that she could get back on track. She is mostly clay court player.
 
Vatulin - De Scheper, Vatulin 2.24
They met a month ago. De Schaper Schepper won, but Vatulin was leading 6:3, 5:2 and missed several matchballs. Kenny got some problems in his previous match and called a medical Time out. I am going big on that one for 2:0 also.
 
Monteiro - Verdasco 3.14 Pinnacle
Monteiro managed to gain some momentum in his previous tournaments. Verdasco is coming from a big pause. Not sure if he will manage to show his best tennis here. Nice odds
 
Babos - Mertens 2.56
Babos was impressive in Taipei. She was running like an Olympian and was hitting huge serves. She is playing very smart and if she continues that way she may attack Top 10. Mertens was a destroyer last month, but against Mladenovic she wasn't so special. She spent some time traveling and will not be so fresh. 
 
Maria - Withoeft 3.10
Maria showed nice tennis in Fed Cup matches. It will boost her morale and she will be more than ready to use the current form.Withoueft is a clay court player, who don't like much to be on hard. 
 
 

Krawietz - Fucsovcs 6.00 at Sporting bet
 
Fucsovs didn't play well yesterday against an opponent, that he must easily beat. He was set and a break down in the second, but managed to get back. Krawietz is playing one of his best tennis so far. He is playing only on indoor hard this season. The guy already stunned three opponents with good tennis and had a total of 5 wins in a row. I respect a lot tennis players who can win a tiebreak in the decider. Krawietz did it twite and it was pretty much convinsing.
 
Mousley - Granollers 5 at Bet victor
Mously is doing pretty well in the tournament. He beat King and Robert pretty easy. The Australian is serving nice and is capable to put some pressure over Granollers, who is showing some signs of tireness. He played 16 matches on single and 10 on doubles since the start of the season. This is a lot. Nice odds

Napoli V Lazio
Lazio +1.0 AH @ 1.78 Betvictor
I guess we're seeing a big price on the away team due to conflicting form but I am prepared to back Lazio here as I don't see a big difference between the two sides.
First off, Napoli have won 7 league games on the bounce and are making a serious charge for the scudetto. They're a fantastic team and will surely finish above Lazio come the end of the season. Despite this, I expect Maurizio Sarri's team to be given a stern test this weekend in what should be the tie of the round.
Lazio have staggered recently by losing their last 2 league games. Coach Simone Inzaghi said his team were a little fatigued at the weekend in the home defeat to Genoa. Inzaghi did not field a full-strength team in that game with Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic both absent and Felipe Anderson struggling for match fitness. I expect Milinkovic-Savic and Lulic to return to the starting eleven V Napoli which will make Lazio a lot more competitive.
Looking at the metrics in detail we can see that Lazio outperform Napoli in a couple of key areas. Essentially, both teams create a lot of chances but Lazio actually have the better conversion rate. ELO ratings also suggest game is very balanced so I do not believe such a big price for Lazio is justified here.
Lazio on +1 asian line gives us decent cover in a game that should be more competitive than the markets suggest. Value on away team is too big to ignore in my view.

I'm such an idiot, I had Bozovic lined up as well and didn't go for that one. Lesson learned.
Maximilian Marterer to beat Joao Sousa at 1.84 with Sbobet
Sousa has been in decline for quite a while know and I did get a chance to see some of his games against Kuzmanov, he wasn't as good as it should be. Marterer looked much more solid against Jaziri and should be able to get more from his shots in these conditions. 1.70 are my fair odds.

Personally, I don't think that Baghdatis is worth it at the current price, Rublev was on fire against Ferrer and showed tremendous composure in not breaking down after losing a nice lead in the fourth set. Baghdatis is nowhere near the Spaniard in terms of movement, so I don't see how he's going to chase the balls coming his way. He's got more power, of course, so he'll be able to dictate in some points, but it feels to me that going against him is betting on Rublev to fall apart mentally more than anything else, Baghdatis certainly isn't the man he used to be anymore. I wish you good luck and I hope that Baggy wins obviously, just my two cents. Shapovalov I have no idea, I didn't see either in the first round.
Hoping for Kerber to deliver on the quarter bet, she certainly looked better than Sharapova to me today, but I didn't see Muguruza. Only those two players can beat her imo, unless Vekic plays out of her mind or something. Halep was crap and might be injured now, so be careful if you want to back her in the next match.
As for the season, @Simeon Borisof, it's just the 16th day of a season that runs until November, so it's hard to make any conclusions. I was really disappointed by how Lopez didn't care at all against Querrey, that's the reason for my "Meh" comment, especially since I wanted to back Lacko in some way instead and didn't. Otherwise I'm still hoping to do well in the tournament, let's see.

David Ferrer vs Andrey Rublev
Rublev to win 4/5 paddy power
Over 39.5 games 4/5 paddy power
 
Well I do fancy Rublev to come through against his ageing opponent as he is very talented. But it will be close

Niculescu @1,74 (MB)
She has a 3-0 record against Bogdan, winning in last year's US OPEN 6-0,6-1. Niculescu won against Mladenovic, who isn't in a great form lately, but still it's a nice win. I expected lower odds, so I am on Niculescu medium-high stakes.

Niculescu @1,74 (MB)
She has a 3-0 record against Bogdan, winning in last year's US OPEN 6-0,6-1. Niculescu won against Mladenovic, who isn't in a great form lately, but still it's a nice win. I expected lower odds, so I am on Niculescu medium-high stakes.

Niculescu @1,74 (MB)
She has a 3-0 record against Bogdan, winning in last year's US OPEN 6-0,6-1. Niculescu won against Mladenovic, who isn't in a great form lately, but still it's a nice win. I expected lower odds, so I am on Niculescu medium-high stakes.