February 12 - February 18

[CzechPunter]

 Buenos Aires, New York, Rotterdam (with Federer!), WTA Doha + various Challengers and ITF events 

[ogii55]

Sureshkumar - Petrovic 7.17 Pinnacle

Challenger Chennai

Sureshkumar is a local lad, who beat Diez this season on clay. Now he is up against Petrovic, a dude, who often losses from big odds. Sureshkumar is 19-years old guy, it will be a grand slam final for him here.

 

Bourgue - Gombos 2.62 Pinnacle

Challenger Cherboug

Bourgue is the last year winner here. He didn't start very strong the season on indoor hard, but lost from in form Halys and Berankis. He scored nice win over Fritz and De Greef at AO. Gombos is also not in the best shape of his life. The direct H2H is 3:0 for Bourgue, including win here last season.

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Martin Klizan to beat Feliciano Lopez at 1.81 with Unibet

Rotterdam basically equals Klizan. I'll never forget his massive win here back in 2016 and, well, it really is the one tournament in which he's guaranteed to work hard for every single point. Two good wins in the qualifying already, Lopez hasn't done much so far in 2018, yes, a play on Klizan does indeed seem to be in order.

Ying-Ying Duan (-3.5) to beat Ons Jabeur at 1.84 with Unibet

I'm not sure what's up with Jabeur, but she's having a horror start to the year. The only set she's won came against Sara Tomic and she retired from her most recent match. I guess that crazy things can happen in the WTA, but Duan should be strong after beating Zvonareva and Krejcikova in the quallies. 

[CzechPunter]

A marvelous second set from Klizan there.

Guido Pella to beat Nicolas Kicker at 1.53 with Marathonbet

I'm going to round today off with this one, as I think that there's a big gap in class between the two. Kicker has some talent, don't get me wrong, but Pella is a regular top 20 clay court player imo. He did lose in the first round of the Australian Open, but he was good in Doha before that and I think that he can be forgiven for losing against Thiem. Neither player has done well in Buenos Aires before and that's a bit strange, but I'm giving Pella a much better chance to break that trend today.

Outrights

Kevin Anderson to win the 1st quarter in New York at 1.83 with Bet365

Tiafoe, McDonald, Basilashvili, Sela. Those are the tough opponents Anderson will have to beat and I think that he should do it after taking a long break after the Australian Open, where he lost against Edmund in a thriller. He spent some time working on his movement in the meantime and the conditions should be a good fit for his serve, so his class should prevail more often than not.

Diego Schwartzman to win the 3rd quarter in Buenos Aires at 2.10 with Bet365

I don't think that Diego should be above evens here. Bellucci can be dangerous, but he's been out of form for quite a while know, while Ramos should be hurting after that disaster in Quito, where he lost as a big favourite in the final. If Schwartzman plays like he did in the AO, he can win the entire event honestly, he really is that good. 

[ogii55]

Inglis - Mrdeza ITF Pert 3.54 Pinnacle

Inglis played some very good matches this season against far better and in form players. On the other hand is Mrdeza, she is totally out of shape. There isn't a single sign that she could get back on track. She is mostly clay court player.

 

Vatulin - De Scheper, Vatulin 2.24

They met a month ago. De Schaper Schepper won, but Vatulin was leading 6:3, 5:2 and missed several matchballs. Kenny got some problems in his previous match and called a medical Time out. I am going big on that one for 2:0 also.

 

Monteiro - Verdasco 3.14 Pinnacle

Monteiro managed to gain some momentum in his previous tournaments. Verdasco is coming from a big pause. Not sure if he will manage to show his best tennis here. Nice odds

 

Babos - Mertens 2.56

Babos was impressive in Taipei. She was running like an Olympian and was hitting huge serves. She is playing very smart and if she continues that way she may attack Top 10. Mertens was a destroyer last month, but against Mladenovic she wasn't so special. She spent some time traveling and will not be so fresh. 

 

Maria - Withoeft 3.10

Maria showed nice tennis in Fed Cup matches. It will boost her morale and she will be more than ready to use the current form.Withoueft is a clay court player, who don't like much to be on hard. 

 

 

[CzechPunter]

Oh man. At least Osaka won to move further up the rankings race (and she won't be without a chance in the next round either).

Mathias Bourgue to beat Norbert Gombos at 2.62 with William Hill

Win or lose, these odds are worth it. @ogii55 has summed it all up nicely and I can't find one reason for this not to be 50/50 at the very least. Gombos has been nothing special for a very long time now and Bourgue is bound to fight hard in home condition. I realize that I said this yesterday about Klizan and then he gave up the second set in a very childish fashion, but I hope that Bourgue won't be as mental as Klizan when defending a title.

Angelique Kerber to win WTA Doha at 10.00 with Bet365

I was thinking long and hard about this, but I think it's worth chancing at odds this long. The one thing that speaks against Kerber is that she's never done well in Doha, but, on the other hand, you can find excuses for her not performing well in the previous seasons. And, well, she has been the best player so far in 2018 by a decent margin imo, she deserved to win the AO even, but ran out of steam against Halep in an epic match. Virtually every single player in the draw has some problems to deal with, but Kerber I can trust even with a full stake. Backing her to win the quarter is a good alternative if you want something safer. I can see plenty of people backing Wozniacki, but I don't know, I think she's the most overrated player on the tour at the moment. She'll have a great record against all those top20+ players, but anyone with a brain and some power can beat her. Funnily enough, that's actually the story of her record in Doha. 3-6 1-6 against Azarenka in 2015, 5-7 7-5 6-3 against Vesnina in 2016, 3-6 4-6 against Pliskova in 2017.

[ogii55]

Kvitova to win WTA Doha 13 at Bet Victor

Kvitova was amazing in Saint Petersburg. She showed her best shape even she was a bit ill. She didn't much of a chance to in form Mladenovic and Georges. Now the field is way much stronger, but I see only Kerber as a real treath and we all know that the German is not so consistent, specially after pretty stong Grand slam tournament. Svitolina also is very strong at such events, but she disapointed at AO. In her draw are out of shape Radwanska and Svitolina and in the semis she could face the winner of Kerber - Wozniacki.

[CzechPunter]

Vondrousova (vs. Putintseva) + Mladenovic (vs. Peng) at 1.99 with Unibet

Vondrousova looked really good in the qualifying, better player than Putintseva for sure, also mentally. Meanwhile, I'll keep opposing Peng until I see her play a good match. I'm yet to see evidence that she's fit physically.

Mayer (vs. Dutra Silva) + Khachanov (vs. Kohlschreiber) at 2.29 with William Hill

Mayer at home, shouldn't be too hard against an average clay court player. Meanwhile, Kohli is a bit like Peng honestly, yet to play a good match in 2018.

[ogii55]

Just watched a bit of Doha and the temperatures there are so high. Mladenovic has some problems with breathing. I think that we may see a lot of surprises, specially for players, who are coming from Europe, where it's still full winter.

[CzechPunter]

6-3 *5-4 Khachanov, yeah? He might still win, but come on.

[DrO]

Khachanov no words really..

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP NEW YORK:

NISHIKORI-4 GAMES HANDICAP OVER RUBIN @ 1.57 pinnacle
Nishikori with a Challenger title last week and good form. Expect a relatively easy win for him.


 

[ogii55]

Copil - Dzumhur 2.74 Pinnacle

Copil was a pure force of serve last week in Sofia. He will celebrate his best rankings that will bring up his self confidence. Dzumhur made some great results last year on indoor hard, but last week he has huge problems with his serving games. Not sure if he will be capable to broke Copil so easy as he did with Bemelmans. Huge value here!

Vatulin is now strong favorit against De Schaper, I hope that Kenny's injury is not so big and he will start the match and will finish the first set.

[ogii55]

Ilkel - Uchyama, 3.4

Challenger Chennai

Ilkel loves hard surface. He is solid server that started with a nice big odds win. Uchyama is very inconsistent, despite the fact that he has a third set tiebreak win over the Turkish player. The odds here must be max 2.5.

 

Dudi Sela - Tiafoe 2.25 Pinnacle

Sela started pretty easy here against Bashiashvili smacking him 4:0 in both sets and then finishing pretty easy. Tiafoe still got a lot to learn. Recently he lost from Kecmanovic, who is by far weaker player compared to little Dudi and also from Ebden at the start of the season. Here against 17-year old Corda (AO junior winner) he lost a set.

 

Dudi Sela 

 

Tiafoe

[CzechPunter]

Thiemo De Bakker Total Games - Over 11 at 1.88 with Marathonbet

Just a few years ago, Thiemo De Bakker was a bigger talent than Robin Haase according to many. He hasn't really lived up to the expectations, but he's gotten back on track recently, showing some stellar performances in important matches. I'm not sure if he has what it takes to remain on the ATP tour, but he can challenge the out-of-form Robin Haase if he plays well in conditions this fast. His serve will be a big weapon and he tends to be really good when in the spotlight, while Haase has been stuck a bit recently.

Madison Keys (-4) to beat Catherine Bellis at 1.90 with Marathonbet

Bellis is talented, but she doesn't have a great record against ball bashers of all kinds, especially the good ones - and Keys is on fire at the moment. Keys can do everything like Bellis, but she can do it much better - and I also wouldn't be surprised by seeing Bellis being a bit overawed by playing against her compatriot.

Monica Niculescu to beat Magdalena Rybarikova at 1.51 with Marathonbet

Betting at a bookie that doesn't void after first set, as I wouldn't be shocked to see Rybarikova retiring. She didn't play in the Fed Cup on Sunday due to injury worries and she was pretty shambolic in her first round match here as well, so I'm struggling to see why Niculescu is above 1.33 here.

[PrivateTips]

2 hours ago, ogii55 said:

Copil - Dzumhur 2.74 Pinnacle

Copil was a pure force of serve last week in Sofia. He will celebrate his best rankings that will bring up his self confidence. Dzumhur made some great results last year on indoor hard, but last week he has huge problems with his serving games. Not sure if he will be capable to broke Copil so easy as he did with Bemelmans. Huge value here!

Vatulin is now strong favorit against De Schaper, I hope that Kenny's injury is not so big and he will start the match and will finish the first set.

Could you tell us what is the source which says about injury of De Schepper ? Thanks!

[ogii55]

The source were my eyes. He called for a medical during his previous match and didn't move so well. It was in the middle of the third set, when he won a game to lead 4:3.  

[ogii55]

16 hours ago, PrivateTips said:

Could you tell us what is the source which says about injury of De Schepper ? Thanks!

De Schapper wins by WO! Seems Vatulin was more injured by him....

[CzechPunter]

Yep, I'm afraid that this might be it for me this week betting-wise, I'll just cheer for the outrights unless something truly interesting comes up. Khachanov yesterday (Mayer won, so the double would've come in), Keys today, now let the injured Rybarikova win even to let the ridiculousness be complete. Two players going from total dominations to complete disasters and I have only one heart. Go Kerber!

[ogii55]

Nice call on Rybarikova.

Buenos Aires doubles

Podlipnik-castillo/Vassilevski vs Molteni/Zeballos 2.00 Pinnacle

Pod/Vas was seasoned double with a lot of wins. They are improving season after season. The team looked in good shape in their first match and gave only 2 break points to Ramos/Belrocq.

 

Escofller - Lee 3.5 bet365

Missed the better value with starting odds at around 3.5. Escoffler is playing great here. He is very strong on serve. I watched his first match, where he beat one of the most promising players of India. Lee is better ranked, but here he has some problems against very weak Indian players. I woudn' give more than 3 to Escofller.

Shimizu - Fourlis 4.47 Pinnacle

Fourlis is very overrated. I can't understand why she is favorite in most of her matches. She is making so many errors. Now against Shimizu she could suffer some big problems. The Japan player is very strong on hard and earlier this season she even won matches against pretty decent players on clay. She started with surprising win here against Cristian (211 in the world). 

 

 

[ogii55]

Two more picks from Doha

Kvitova - Svitolina 2.20 Will Hill

H2H is 6:1 for Kvitova and most of those wins are very convincing. Let's no count on that, because Svitolina's rise is in the last year. Elina sill is not in her best shape. Sometimes she has problems in hot condition. Kvitova is starting to get her best shape. The only question for her is will she be fresh. She played Fed Cup and scored two nice wins. Also she managed to beat tricky Radwanska (who had beat her the last three times they met). I think it's 50-50 match with nice juice to get.

 

Doubles

MErtens/Shuurs vs Sinakova/Krejcikovaa, only odds at 1xbet, but I think they will come at other bookies at around 2.4. Expect the odds to go down to 2.1

Mertens is out from the singles tournament and may concentrate on doubles with her long time partner Shuurs. Both already won a tournament this year in Hobart. They started pretty well against top pair Atawo/Groenfeld. Krejcikova/Sinakova also won a tournament, but they have problems in the first round against the team of Bartel and Withoeft, who aren't really doubles specialist. Another close clash with better odds for Mertens/Shuurs.

 

 

 

 

 

[Sm0k3rZ]

I fancy Kivi too but i dont know she did struggle against Glub in the fed cup tie and she might be tired.

Czech - whats your take on it?

[CzechPunter]

Svitolina a slight fav imo, the heavy schedule is bound to catch up with Kvitova at some point.

[WinningTipster]

1 PICK FOR ATP NEW YORK:

NISHIKORI-ALBOT 2:0 SETS @ 1.49 pinnacle
A pick on Nishikori who is in a good form both this tournament and winning a Challenger title last week.
 

[CzechPunter]

Congrats to all Kvitova backers, looking tired but playing well!

[Sm0k3rZ]

was impressed with how Kivi played. Backing her today is a whole different story. Julia can demolish her on her day.

My main focus for the day is the match between Woz and Kerber. Now i didnt get to see the Woz match but i did see the Kerber match. First set she was abysmal and Konte not missing anything. But i was impressed by the way she came back into the match. Given konte's level dropped significantly, Kerber did stay focused. I'm leaning towards Kerber in this one.

Your thoughts?

[CzechPunter]

I don't know, man. I think it's essentially 50/50.

[Fader]

5pts A.Seppi to beat D.Medvedev Evens Skybet
Both of these two have been in good form as of late. Medvedev won the Sydney event beating some good players such as Kohli & Fognini and Seppi won a challenger event before having a good Aus Open, reaching the last 16. Medvedev didn't look too impressive against Herbert though and for me he was broken far too much and wasn't serving like he normally does. Seppi was seeing the serve very well in his straight sets win over Zverev, which bodes well against Danniil

[CzechPunter]

Bet365, or try this thread.

 

[ogii55]

You may get almost every tournament to watch via link at stream sites like batmanstream.net, livetv.ru, fromhot.com (not sure if it's legal to post the links).

Rough week for me, but here I think this one could be a changer

Maceiras - Mannarino 4.7 Pinnacle

Maceiras already stunned two favorites here. Johnson and Chardy weren't in their best shape, but it's the same for Mannarino. He played Davis cup, where he lost from out of form Timo de Bakker. Then went to Sofa and played very bad against another out of shape player - Bagdatis. He was pretty lucky in his match against Gojowcik.

Maceiras is a real fighter, who saves a lot of break points and Mannarino recently has problems when he is behind at the start of the set to get back.