Jackform

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.
My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.
Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66
Ladbrokes priced up:
1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent
2. 15/2 = 8/1
3. Nil (22/1 RP average)
5. 12/1 = 13/1
6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn
7. 11/1 = 12/1
8. Nil (25/1 RP average)
9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero
Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.
My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.
Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66
Ladbrokes priced up:
1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent
2. 15/2 = 8/1
3. Nil (22/1 RP average)
5. 12/1 = 13/1
6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn
7. 11/1 = 12/1
8. Nil (25/1 RP average)
9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero
Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.
My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.
Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66
Ladbrokes priced up:
1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent
2. 15/2 = 8/1
3. Nil (22/1 RP average)
5. 12/1 = 13/1
6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn
7. 11/1 = 12/1
8. Nil (25/1 RP average)
9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero
Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

I have been compiling my own tissue to compare with the betting market since 1979, although I am not sure that you can better the professional advice easily available nowadays.
My simple arithmetic is to rate each runner and add for a total. Divide 100 by that total and multiply that figure by each individual rating in turn. Then convert the individual percentages to odds by reference to the field money table. However, if you check the odds on offer on the At The Races site they show the runners with the best chances and an average overround for the race.
Take the Southwell 3.15 today indicates an average overround 106.66
Ladbrokes priced up:
1. 5/2 = 11/4 fair odds Blackcurrent
2. 15/2 = 8/1
3. Nil (22/1 RP average)
5. 12/1 = 13/1
6. 7/1 = 15/2 Navajo Dawn
7. 11/1 = 12/1
8. Nil (25/1 RP average)
9. 13/8 = 7/4 True Hero
Comment: In my opinion this race is restricted to a win from no's 1, 6, 9 and they wold be the runners to watch the market with for a bet.

First post for some time as there doesn't always seem to be much interaction, which is what I enjoy. However, I will try one today evaluated by my own form ratings converted to odds.
Pontefract (going forecast G with some GS)
4.20 Market expected 08.15* nos 2, 3, 4 indicating a win restricted to these. Theoretical strong fav 6/4, possible contender 3/1, not expected longer than 6/1.
1. 34 = 15/2 fair (12/1 mkt)
2*. 70 = 9/2 (3/1) Speed Company 3 tips (DBF)
3*. 87 = 3/1 (7/2) My Reward 3 tips (C&D) T Easterby rates 16/D Allen
4*. 99 = 95/40 (2/1) Volcanic Sky 5 tips (D)
5. 36 = 25/1 (10/1)
6. 47 = 11/1 (11/1)
7. 27 = 250/1 (9/1)
Comment: Volcanic Sky for me.
ATR form verdict in comparison.
VOLCANIC SKY built on two solid efforts at Kempton and Carlisle when gaining his first success of 2019 at Leicester a fortnight ago. Saeed bin Suroor's string are in fine form at present and a 4lb rise might not be enough to stop his progression. Speed Company has been running to a solid level over the past couple of months and is respected, along with Archi's Affaire, who may have needed his first run of the year at York.

Mondays are seldom the high point of the racing week and today is no different. My preference is to look for successful yards sending out runners with some recent form - any rated 20+ are usually OK.
Chepstow
2.30 Dilmun Destiny 23 (M Stoute)
3.00 Soft Cover 22 (W Haggas)
Windsor
6.40 Revolutionise 22 (R Varian)
7.40 Asian Angel 28 (M Johnston)
8.15 Albert Finney 25 (J Gosden)

Probably a better day for the VDW 'methodology' at York today as there are four 'key' races IMO, namely - 2.25, 3.00, 3.35, 5.05.
As the 2.25 & 3.0 are forecast with short odds maybe the best approach could be a VDW system double Lah Ti Dar and Too Darn Hot.
As for the other two races the better prize money is for the 3.35 and I will rate that one.

Richard, I do not like the York feature race today for the VDW approach, so in comparison to your assessment  I employed my modified Clive Holt Master Formula.

York (going forecast GF with some G watering) RP Spotlight selects Yafta (7 pundits agree 12 oppose)
3.00 Market expected 10.50* nos 1, 2, 6, 9, 10 indicating a win restricted to these. Rated by modified Fineform from RP data online.

1*. 72 = 15/2 fair odds.
2*. 85 = 11/2 Brando 3 tips (5/1 mkt)
3. 30 = 40/1
4. 59 = 10/1
5. 59 = 10/1
6*. 84 = 11/2 Invincible Army 7 tips (11/4). J Tate 21 (my rating)/PJ Macdonald.
7. 60 = 10/1
8. 20 = 400/1
9*. 80 = 6/1 Projection (8/1)
10*. 79 = 13/2 Yafta 8 tips (4/1). R Hannon 17/J Crowley

Comment: 2, 6, 10 for dutching? Does not look a strong renewal on paper with the yards taking part IMO.

ATR form verdict in comparison.
INVINCIBLE ARMY kept good company last year, finishing second in the Sandy Lane Stakes after landing Group 3 honours at Ascot, and although he ran below his best in the Commonwealth Cup, he looked better than ever when winning the Cammidge from Major Jumbo on his return recently and could kick on again this term. Last year's second, Brando, has strong place prospects, while the classy Limato cannot be discounted despite his penalty.

 

York a top class meeting but the only VDW 'key' race I could identify today was the 4.05.

York (going forecast GF with some G watering)RP Spotlight Steve Boow selects Karnavaal (3 pundits agree 12 oppose)
4.05 Market expected 09.50* nos 1, 2, 7, 10, 13, 14, 16 indicating a win restricted to these.

1*. XXX0X = 4* Space Blues 2 tips (10/3 mkt). C Appleby 22 (my rating)/J Doyle
3. X0XXX = 4* 
5. XX00X = 3*
6. X00XX = 3*
10*. XOXOX = 3* The Night Watch 3 tips (6/1). W Haggas 24/C Fallon (7) riding well.
13*. XX0XO = 3* Karnavaal 4 tips (7/2). (Stoute/Crowley)
15. 0X0XX = 3*

Comment: Just the three and four star* rating and selected the three from the early market expected.

ATR form verdict in comparison (I have not carried out the most important 'subject to other considerations')
Breath Of Air (1*, 8/1 mkt) made a satisfactory return at Newmarket and that performance suggested the son of Bated Breath would take a step forward for going up in distance. Karnavaal will benefit from the drop to 7f after a promising comeback on the Rowley Mile, but William Haggas runners always warrant a second look on the Knavesmire and THE NIGHT WATCH gets the vote. He ran well under a penalty at Salisbury last month and Cieren Fallon's 7lb claim will aid his cause.

 

Richard for some reason VDW attracts criticism for 'back-fitting', which is understandable although could be excused as he was writing snail mail to be published in the press before personal computers were available. The example races I have posted here are all timed before the event.
Here are further extracts from the 'VDW Update' booklet issued by Raceform Handicap Book (not Update that came later), which may be of interest:
"It is perhaps worthwhile at this stage to reiterate and clarify to new readers some of the early signposts on the road to success given by VDW at this juncture, they were:-
1.Narrowing the field.
2. Looking at horses that win a high percentage of races with regard to their form figures.
3. Studying the first 5 in the betting forecast of non-handicaps and the first 6 in handicaps.
4. Using two rating methods (meaning race evaluation not rating figures).
5. AND perhaps most important of all, combining these points ...'subject to other considerations'.
In March 1981 I suggested 'to confirm what the figures say it is necessary to study the form of all concerned taking particular note of the class in which they ran, the courses they ran on, the pace and going of the respective races, distances won or beaten by and most important how they performed in the later stage of each race.' "
Here is an example of the Windicator VDW rating system that I mentioned:
Mitsubishi Shogun Ascot Chase 29th February 1999
Abt-—Con—-SF---Rat---ACSR---Tot (column headings)
102(4)-15(5)-70(4)-159(5)-4545 = 18 Challenger Du Luc
91(5)-15(5)-79(3)-142(6)-5536 = 19 Chief’s Song
128(3)-5(2)-48(7)-177(2)-3272 = 14 Direct Route
65(7) -10(4)-56(5)-149(6)-7456 = 22 Lake Kariba
134 (2)-19(6)-55(6)-160(4)-2664 = 18 Senor El Betrutti
82 (6)-9(3)-104(2)-170(3)-6323 = 14 Super Coin
153 (1)-3(1)-108(1)-189(1)-1111 = 4 Teeton Mill

Richard, your reply took me by surprise as I didn't think anyone read the posts .
However, with regard to ratings for VDW assessment I don't actually compile ratings but just follow the basic elementary procedure to star * the 'possibles' and narrow the field, following the 'elementary mechanical procedure'. The following is an extract from a free booklet published by Raceform Update in 1985 after it had taken over the Sporting in 1983:
VDW Update
"This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but it is extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step-by-step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:-
1. Select the most valuable race on the card.
2. Consider the next most valuable race.
3. Select the most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate the entire field for ability.
5. Apply selected rating method (meaning assessment) method to entire field."
I had a mate (passed away in 2015) used to sell a VDW rating figures system entitled 'Windicator'. I have an old hard copy example I could probably find and post if it is of any interest?

This thread seems to have died the death    but as I have some time to spare just a basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' in this just about a 'key' race.

Ascot 4.00 (going forecast GS with some S showers) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Presidential (3 pundits agree 22 oppose).

7. Cape Byron 5*, 2 tips (8/1 mkt 14.15)
11. Kynren 5*, 4 tips (15/2)
22. Presidential 5*, 4 tips (8/1)

Comment: At the odds 1 point each the three for interest.

ATR form verdict in comparison as my three were not 'subject to further consideration'
Ripp Orf (2*)landed this race 12 months ago and he went on to win again over C&D off a mark just 2lb lower than this in September. The five-year-old ran well in the Lincoln on his return but failed to fire in the Spring Cup last time out, although it is far too soon to be writing him off. Kynren is a consistent performer who will be hard to keep out of the frame but he may find one or two too good once again. With that in mind, the preference is for CAPE BYRON, who was only just beaten by Ripp Orf over C&D in September and he is 3lb better off with that rival for a half-length defeat today. The son of Shamardal didn't like the soft ground in the Challenge Cup over this track and trip last time out and he merits the utmost respect as long as the rain stays away. Others to consider are Blue Mist (3*), Glorious Journey (2*) and Presidential.

 

This thread seems to have died the death    but as I have some time to spare just a basic 'elementary mechanical procedure' in this just about a 'key' race.

Ascot 4.00 (going forecast GS with some S showers) RP Spotlight Richard Austen selects Presidential (3 pundits agree 22 oppose).

7. Cape Byron 5*, 2 tips (8/1 mkt 14.15)
11. Kynren 5*, 4 tips (15/2)
22. Presidential 5*, 4 tips (8/1)

Comment: At the odds 1 point each the three for interest.

ATR form verdict in comparison as my three were not 'subject to further consideration'
Ripp Orf (2*)landed this race 12 months ago and he went on to win again over C&D off a mark just 2lb lower than this in September. The five-year-old ran well in the Lincoln on his return but failed to fire in the Spring Cup last time out, although it is far too soon to be writing him off. Kynren is a consistent performer who will be hard to keep out of the frame but he may find one or two too good once again. With that in mind, the preference is for CAPE BYRON, who was only just beaten by Ripp Orf over C&D in September and he is 3lb better off with that rival for a half-length defeat today. The son of Shamardal didn't like the soft ground in the Challenge Cup over this track and trip last time out and he merits the utmost respect as long as the rain stays away. Others to consider are Blue Mist (3*), Glorious Journey (2*) and Presidential.

 

Catterick 10 Oct 17
Ventura Knight 5* 7 10/3 early, LTO 24 days, dropped 3 lbs, dropped 1 grade, D, 3rd in class 2 LTO
Poet's Dawn 5* 10,  3/1 early LTO 10, dropped 7 lbs, up 1 grade, in form but hcap mark?
El Chapo 5* 8,11/4 early. 17, dropped 8lbs, up 1 grade, beat Poet's dawn C&D 17 days ago.
Comment: Perhaps a race to watch as it looks quite tight.

Sunday 8 Oct 17
Kelso 4.20
Forest Bihan 5* 10
Double W's 6* 8
Wisty 4* 7
 

Sat 7 Oct 17
Newmarket 2.40
Roly Poly 6* 13
Qemah 5* 9
Siyoushake 5* 8
Fontwell 3.40
Orbasa 5* 10
Oliver's Hill 3* 6
Newton Geronimo 3* 4
 

Ascot 3.45 On To Victory.
Comment: As I have got the bit between my teeth I thought there might be some interest in my workings. VDW did not rate races but allotted stars* for filters to 'narrow the field'  - market, class, consistency and two form ratings (or in the case of Flat races time ratings). I do that but I also rate the top three in each filter to provide an overall rating. VDW would then subject the three possibles to further examination 'subject to other consideration' whereas I usually take my top rated. In this case Mount Moriah the probable fav is down on time for me, could be the wrong call.
1.**o*** =  8 (my rating) Raheen House
2.oooo*o = 1
3. ****o* = 8 Mount Moriah
4. ****** = 11 On To Victory
5. oo*ooo = 3
6. oo*ooo = 1

Here is further info from my hard copy files relating to VDW and the following from a free booklet issued by Racefom Update:
VDW Update booklet, SCHB 1985, "Backing anything but a form horse is bucking the odds. Form alone is not enough, it must be consistent in order to put the odds where you want them.
Relatively consistent horses are in every race but good (winning) consistent form is what is required to produce results which provide long term profit. This must also balance with the other factors in the equation.
Consistent Form + Ability + Capability + Probability + Hard Work = Winners
The combination of consistent form and class (ability) is a formidable factor, but the horse must be in a situation where it is capable of capitalising on it. The method calls for balancing the various factors and evaluating completely devoid of sentiment."

Consistent Form, Sports Forum letter, dated 6 April 1978. "...consistent horses win a high percentage of races . If we add the last three placings of the respective in the betting forecast together (where they finished the course), we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propostions. A high percentage of winners come from the three lowest figures."
Sports Forum article, dated 28 March 1981, "Taking all races other figures show that 83% of winners come from the first five in the betting forecast. This also shows that selecting a horse which does not appear in this range is again tantamount to going against the odds. The only exception I make is when a highly consistent horse fails to show in this area of the forecast."

Ability, Sports Forum article, dated 28 March 1981, "Class should be defined as ability and to assess the merit of one against another, it becomes necessary to compile a rating. This can quickly and easily be done by considering the prize money won to date in hundreds of pounds and dividing it by the number of races won. This rating gives one of the most reliable assessment of a horse but always remember it must be used as a guide in conjunction with other factors. It can be used methodically as the basic factor and when all the other elements line up in support of the horse concerned is seldom beaten. 

Capability, Sports Forum article, dated 28 March 1981, "To complete the working platform it is useful to have another measure giving some indication of the various horses chances and which will assist in confirming other data. This can be time, handicap ratings, form ratings etc., but always keep in mind they are a guide. I use two ratings which are compiled on different lines so that I may judge the reliability of the figures, but this is not essential."

Probability, Sports Forum article, dated 28 March 1981, "At this stage do not make any automatic assumptions. The required data has been put together and it is now necessary to establish if any of the three possibles (from an example race) have good claims for support. Always start your appraisal by looking at the horse with the highest ability rating and check how it balances with the other data. When you have followed the method for some time it is easy to turn back to your records concerning a horse and it will help to balance respective performances."

Hard Work, Sports Forum article, dated 28 March 1981. "This whole concept may seem complex and beyond the capabilities of many, but it is in fact extremely simple and becomes quick and easy to perform providing it is done methodically. Taken step by step and starting with the principal meeting the agenda is:-

1. Select the most valuable race on the card.
2. Consider the next most valuable.
3. Select most valuable race from other cards.
4. Rate entire field for ability.
5.Select most consistent from first 5 or 6 in the forecast.
6. Apply selected rating method to entire fields."

This is me, time has moved on over 39 years and racing has changed, but the above is a precis of the original 'elementary mechanical procedure' in his own words.

I was under the impression that everyone and his dog had heard of VDW, shows you what happens over time, as I was middle-aged when he first came on the scene. Anyway, just in case there is any interest here  is the synopsis of a couple of VDW's letters to the defunct Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book.
These are the two VDW rating (evaluation) methods.

Narrow the field to gain winning strip, dated 6 April 78

I quote,"I suggest that the two factors can be coupled to leave three horses for consideration.

First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races.Second, the first five in the betting forecast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps, produce a high percentage of winners. If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast, we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions.

(The Erin Foods Champion Hurdle is given as an example)

Using two methods of rating (evaluating) all five horses, I found that the three starred horses came out best."

Speed is of no use without form says Dutchman, dated 23 August 79 (there are two subjects discussed in this letter and it is the second part which is of interest).

I quote,"Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method i gave is as follows. The combination of the two usually isolates the probables.
Stage one. From the last two placings of each horse mark all those with from figures 1 to 4.
Stage two. select in days the five most recent runs.
Stage 3. Select from above the three most consistent by adding together the last three placings of the respective horses."

(The cobnut Selling Handicap is given as an example, and is the first occasion that ratings (figures) were shown to illustrate a point)

I quote,"It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast of 10/1. Ratings alone?"

I was under the impression that everyone and his dog had heard of VDW, shows you what happens over time, as I was middle-aged when he first came on the scene. Anyway, just in case there is any interest here  is the synopsis of a couple of VDW's letters to the defunct Sporting Chronicle Handicap Book.
These are the two VDW rating (evaluation) methods.

Narrow the field to gain winning strip, dated 6 April 78

I quote,"I suggest that the two factors can be coupled to leave three horses for consideration.

First, consistent horses win a high percentage of races.Second, the first five in the betting forecast in non-handicaps and the first six in handicaps, produce a high percentage of winners. If we add the last three placings of the respective horses in the betting forecast, we have a numerical picture. This can be very illuminating and show, subject to other considerations, the good betting propositions.

(The Erin Foods Champion Hurdle is given as an example)

Using two methods of rating (evaluating) all five horses, I found that the three starred horses came out best."

Speed is of no use without form says Dutchman, dated 23 August 79 (there are two subjects discussed in this letter and it is the second part which is of interest).

I quote,"Another of the many ways to reduce the field, which can be used in conjunction with the previous method i gave is as follows. The combination of the two usually isolates the probables.
Stage one. From the last two placings of each horse mark all those with from figures 1 to 4.
Stage two. select in days the five most recent runs.
Stage 3. Select from above the three most consistent by adding together the last three placings of the respective horses."

(The cobnut Selling Handicap is given as an example, and is the first occasion that ratings (figures) were shown to illustrate a point)

I quote,"It is interesting to speculate by what criterion weight of money could force Royal Inheritance to a 5/2 favourite from a forecast of 10/1. Ratings alone?"

Re. my attempt to get an edge yesterday I ended up half a point down at SP so not a complete disaster. I compile my own ratings and convert the figures attained to fair odds - I doubt anyone but me would believe them so i will provide the whole caboodle just for interest, and any comment .
Brighton (going forecast GF)
3.30 Market expected 08.50 nos 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 currently indicating an open race. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender.4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.
1. 8/11 (my rating converted to fair odds) 5/2 early. White Chocolate
2. 10/1 - 8/1 early
3. 18/1 - 9/1 early
4. 7/2 - 11/2 early. Marie Josephe
5. 35/1 - 13/2 early
6. ? (0 rating) - 22/1 early
7. 35/1 - 8/1 early
8. 125/1 - 4/1 early
9. 150/1 - 14/1 early.
Comment: White Chocolate looks home and hosed if running to form as far as i am concerned. With Marie Josephe the danger. Just level stakes on each if the odds hold.

Re. my attempt to get an edge yesterday I ended up half a point down at SP so not a complete disaster. I compile my own ratings and convert the figures attained to fair odds - I doubt anyone but me would believe them so i will provide the whole caboodle just for interest, and any comment .
Brighton (going forecast GF)
3.30 Market expected 08.50 nos 1, 2, 4, 5, 7, 8 currently indicating an open race. Theoretical strong fav 2/1, possible contender.4/1, not expected longer than 8/1.
1. 8/11 (my rating converted to fair odds) 5/2 early. White Chocolate
2. 10/1 - 8/1 early
3. 18/1 - 9/1 early
4. 7/2 - 11/2 early. Marie Josephe
5. 35/1 - 13/2 early
6. ? (0 rating) - 22/1 early
7. 35/1 - 8/1 early
8. 125/1 - 4/1 early
9. 150/1 - 14/1 early.
Comment: White Chocolate looks home and hosed if running to form as far as i am concerned. With Marie Josephe the danger. Just level stakes on each if the odds hold.

Trying to get an edge I prefer to assess open handicaps and these are two i have considered today.
Chester 2.45 (going forecast good)
3. Breakable - on career high mark but in form and track suits, draw in favour. Was 5/1 early
4. Love Dreams - won well at Newmarket but not since. Was 10/1 early
Sandown 3.35 (going forecast GS and softer)
3. Noble Gift - has run well this season, not out of it. Was 22/1 at 08.35
4. Pacify - conditions suit OK. 7/1 early.
5. Eugino - Improver possibly more to come. 7/1 early.
7. Silver Ghost - improver at new yard but up in grade and weight. 9/1 early
13. Thundering Blue  - OK over 10 furlongs and could be thereabouts.8/1 early.
Comment: I can't narrow them down any more but level stakes all round could crack it.