Xtc12

4.05 – Coral Scottish Grand National Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 4m110y 
15/15 – Last ran 57 days or less ago   (6,16,20,21,23,28,30,31)
13/15 – Finished in the top 6 last time out   (1,2,7,13,15,16,17,24)
13/15 – Aged 8 or older   (27)
12/15 – Fallen or unseated no more than once during their careers   (3,4,8,9,12,14,26)
11/15 – Carried 10-9 or less   (5,10,11)
11/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting   
Left with Indy Five, Joe Farrell, Glencairn View
10/15 – Finished in the first three last time out
10/15 – Aged between 8-10 years-old
10/15 – Came from the first 7 in the betting market  (Of the three above Glencairn View  is currently in the top 7 of the betting)
10 Pts EW - Glencairn View @ 16\1 PP   6 places 1/5
3 Pts EW - Indy Five @ 33\1  & Joe Farrell @ 40\1 Ladbrokes   6 places 1/5

17.15 Ayr - Chapel Stile - 1 Pt Win @ 9\2 Bet365

Argentello 16.45 Newmarket 1 pt win @ 7\4 (bog)
Black Key 17.15 Fairy house 1 pt win @ 11\10 (bog)

1st @ 11\8 - Held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on under pressure to lead close home
1st @ 6\4 - Led, headed 5th, regained lead at 9th, made rest, slight mistake 3 out, pushed along before last, stayed on well run-in, comfortably  
** First Double in a while 

Update:Overall

Year 2 : Since 18th Mar.

 
 

1st @ 11\8 - Held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on under pressure to lead close home
1st @ 6\4 - Led, headed 5th, regained lead at 9th, made rest, slight mistake 3 out, pushed along before last, stayed on well run-in, comfortably  
** First Double in a while 

1st @ 5\4 - Keen in touch, 2nd over 4f out, led over 2f out, driven clear approaching final furlong, very easily
2nd - Led, joined from before 3 out, headed approaching last, no extra, one pace
Sea of Class 17.20 Newmarket 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
170,000 gns half-sister to numerous winners and holds an Oaks entry. Very appealing on paper and it will look significant if there's confidence behind her in the betting.
El Greco 18.30 Dundalk 1 Pt Win @ 5\4 (bog)
Once-raced colt. 7/2, third of 14 in maiden at this course (8f) on debut. Off 6 months. Significantly up in trip. Sure to progress and win races.

1st @ 11\8 - Held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on under pressure to lead close home
1st @ 6\4 - Led, headed 5th, regained lead at 9th, made rest, slight mistake 3 out, pushed along before last, stayed on well run-in, comfortably  
** First Double in a while 

1st @ 11\8 - Held up towards rear, headway on outside over 2f out, went 2nd inside final furlong, ran on under pressure to lead close home
1st @ 6\4 - Led, headed 5th, regained lead at 9th, made rest, slight mistake 3 out, pushed along before last, stayed on well run-in, comfortably  
** First Double in a while 

Mobsta 16.20 Windsor 1 Pt Win @ 11\8 (bog)
Very useful at his best and clear signs he can take advantage of reduced mark when fourth on return at Doncaster (6f, heavy) under this rider, finishing well after racing away from main action.
Mac's Legend 19.20 Tramore 1 Pt Win @ 6\4 (bog)
Fair chaser. 5/1, first run since leaving Miss M. L. Hallahan when good second of 8 in hunter chase at Cork (24f, heavy) 14 days ago, clear of rest. Sets a solid standard.

Update:Overall

Year 2 : Since 18th Mar.

 
 

Rubbish these trends

Right again, winner scoring 99.

Oh, and there are secret draws as well, that are never revealed or perhaps known only to a few. There was a massive advantage to horses drawn in low stall numbers over 1m 4f at Newmarket (sorry, can't remember if it was July course or Rowley course now (do the 2 courses still exist? I am that out of touch). Look up draws on internet and they tell you nothing (or lies). You got to sit down with a pen and paper (or a spreadsheet nowadays) and tediously go through years of results. It was very hard work, but so so rewarding. I got 2 very good winners yesterday at Newcastle, but only had pennies on them as I have a very small sample of results for now. Cheers!

On another thread earlier this year I put up a little "system" for the National which has produced some very long priced winners - namely horses who had finished in the first 4 in one of the Irish, Scottish and Welsh Grand Nationals. This year there seem to be 6 qualifiers :
Seeyouatmidnight
Thunder and Roses
Raz De Maree
Houblon Des Obeaux
Bless the Wings
Final Nudge
I've backed all 6 at small stakes. If I had to narrow it to 3 it would be :
1. Seeyouatmidnight
2. Final Nudge
3. Houblon des Obeaux
 

It was just a saying 'back what you think will win not matter the price' geez calm down lads, I only back level stakes anyway no matter the price and TBH I have won as much with double figure horses as single figure so it all works out in the end. 
Well for me anyway.  

Results
Won 7/4 £27.50, Won 6/1 £70.00, NR £10.00 

Stakes  70pts
Returns 107.50pts
Tot St: 5540.00pts
Tot Rt: 6191.15pts
Tot Pr: 651.15pts
 
Next meet 12th at Taunton

Returns
2nd 9/1 £14.00, 3rd 9/1 £14.00, NR £10.00, Won 9/2 £55.00, Won 5/2 £35.00, Won 13/8 £26.25
Stakes: 70pts
Returns: 154.25pts

Tot St: 5390pts
Tot Rt: 6031.65pts
Tot Pr: 641.65pts

Well your acrually wrong their if you go through and check the spreadsheet the prices advised are on the sheet and the return column will show the higher return if the selection drifted but leaves the original SP in the price column, trust me my stats are 100% correct and i check them all the time.
So as you seem to be a disbeliever of not just my stats and you seem to not want my help i will finish my conversation with you here, im just a punter and member like you and was trying to help new people to this site and betting in general with 30+ years of experience, but now im feed up with the bullshit, so I shall just sit here in my villa in the sun in Tenerife watching you muppets fail while us experienced punters make money

The second highest Placepot dividend was returned on Thursday at Wolverhampton , the £81,874 being eclipsed only by the £91,774 declared at Cheltenham on December 11, 2015.
Not a single favourite managed to reach the places in the half dozen races on which the Placepot operated at Cheltenham that day, and while that was not the case at Wolverhampton – two outright market leaders won and a joint-favourite was placed – turnover was boosted by the meeting being the only afternoon card on offer, with Warwick and Musselburgh having been victims of waterlogging.
The massive Wolverhampton dividend was won to only 65p, so there will be a £28,655 carryover to Lingfield on Friday. Four punters were celebrating, with three winning £16,374 for 20p lines, and the other £4,093 for a 5p line.
All-time top Placepot dividends
£91,774 Cheltenham, December 11, 2015
£81,874 Wolverhampton, April 5, 2018
£63,284 Newmarket, October 3, 2003.

Yes
Think of it like a PAYG mobile theres no point to use it (from the 50pt bank)  if you already have enough credit in to pay for the call (profit), If I make 20 calls (bets) if I'm in credit (profit > 20) why would I need to top up(from the 50pts)
It should actually read losing all my bank in 1 losing run is 1mill to 1.
Purely due to laziness I stated that this is derived from my current ave sr
Unfortunately not having the foresight of Nostradamus I couldn't know what my sr would be post 2010 ,so the bank of 50 pts was actually derived from my pre 2010 lowest sr of 24% and Ive always left it at that, the reason that I used my lowest sr instead of the average sr was purely as an extra safety net.
There is always the probability of several losing runs combined causing a black swan effect although probable, highly unlikely that the sr will deviate that far from the mean due to the amount of bets per season (ave 470) being nowhere near the million mark. log 470/-log(1-.33) = 15 losing runs
How do I come about the 50pts.... (6/-log(1-0.24)) = 6/-log(0.76) = 6/0.119 = 50.34 = 50 rounded to 1pt
6 = log of 1million
1-0.24 = 0.76 the losing sr
why -log?, if we log less than 1 (which we are, as your logging a %age as a decimal) we get a negative number ,so by doing -log we get a positive number.
I wouldnt say I'm more knowledgeable than than the next man about racing in fact far from it most probably worse than the average Joe Public , its just Ive put the hours in over time found something that works for me at this moment and stuck to that ,I just play a numbers game, its boring, repetitive and actually takes the gloss off even bothering to watch racing now I don't bet on anything other than my statistical selections anymore.(horse racing wise)
I was planning to retire in 2020 but it might be this year if they cant get my knee sorted out soon its been around 6 months now ,they've done some 'keyhole surgery' on it (the doc must live in a f*ckin castle if the hole in my knee is his idea of a keyhole  ) but all thats done is cause an infection now so its worse than it was before ,thats bye the bye, Im hoping for a good year this year if the rain can stay away I might need it.
 
 
 
 
 

Yes you are right about 95% do leave it in and blow it but that is just bad discipline, I strated with £2000 and was shown how to use 50% of your funds and always have a reserve bank of the other 50% and from any profit replace any used from the reserve and also add 25% of profit to the reserve until you have 5 times the bank in reserve which I know have this gives me plenty of leeway, I now have 3 banks doing this same system.

Not wanting to get to involved in this to much but my view is like this
My aim is for a ROI on Invested Capital not Stakes
I am a firm believer that your yearly aim should be the ROI on Investmented Capital, as I treat my betting as a Buisness this is my main aim on returns, as I also Compound each month on my yearly banking system this gives me a greater ROI on my INITIAL INVESTMENT.
For example 2017 stats where
Yearly Starting Bank £100 Staking at 1%
Year Profit £5,530.50
ROI  5530.50%
Actual Money Staked £123,351.58
Yearly ROI on Staked Money 4.48%
As you can see their is a huge difference in results based on Initial Investment or Staked Investment this is why I do all my results based on Initial Investment and Yearly P&L
I also do a monthly Banking System (Flat Staking) were I have a Monthly Starting Bank of £1,000, the P&L on this is up and down obviously based on results but my yearly expectation for this is a ROI of 25%+ per year rather than a monthly ROI, if I have a Losing Month then I still Invest £1000 on the next month, I withdraw All Profit each month and then add to the bank from the profit if I have a losing month.
Hope this helps and is understandable
 

Since 2010 Ive averaged 470 per season (to the nearest 10)
So around 16 a week or 2 to 3 a day
Over the big flat festivals is obviously more a day than the ave flat

I only bet on certain flat races between April to the end of October
Drawdown is just the actual money you have to put in and -1pt is the minimum you can ever have as you must put that in to start with.
IE
When I have my first bet I will be -1pt down from my own money as that is needed to place the bet.so drawdown is -1pt if that loses I will have to use another 1pt therefore drawdown will be -2pts if I never lose another bet to the end of Oct (I wish) then total drawdown will be -2pts for that year
In 2016 I had to 'top up' to be able to keep betting so to speak 34 times hence -34pts before I had accrued enough profit to be able to sustain the losing runs without going in the red.
The 50pts is the max that I am prepared to lose in any 1 flat season come what may, so that year I was 16 points from going bust (by the way the 50pts Max is worked out on odds of 1 million to 1 of me going bust using my average SR so thats how close it was )
CLT in a nutshell (or my representation of it at least )
If you have a data set (past bets) and take any independent random samples ( new bets,same type races,same selection process) as long as you have enough random samples (new bets) then in theory and if your selection process is as good as you think you should end up with around the similar averages to your past bets (reversion to the mean ) , If you could maintain a 50% SR for example it is only variance (luck or bad luck to the ill informed) which stops you getting a W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L scenario.