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SHOCK FACE! 

Final Day
Well done to Alastair who holds on to win this years Cheltenham Competition.
ChangesAA and Jazzy Jasper fill the places
We had 104 entries and will do it all again at Aintree next month
Prizes:
£60: Alastair
£25: ChangesAA
£15: Jazzy Jasper
All 3 winners also receive PL merchandise!
Can the winners send their PayPal details, PL name, prize being claimed and home address (if not already won PL merchandise) to: [email protected]
 

 

Count me in please! 

Can I enter a new version of me please?!

2019 Cheltenham Tipsters Competition
 
We shall be running a tipsters competition for the Cheltenham Festival starting on March 12th The winner and two runners up will receive cash prizes.
 Please find all the rules below. I will put up the selection threads each day and the table each evening. Anyone wanting to enter in advance due to lack of access let me know via PM.
No need to register, just turn up on the day
Rules:
1 selection per race throughout the 4 days at Cheltenham Bets settled to £1 level stakes - WIN Only Bets settled at SP Highest accumulative total over 4 days wins £60 cash (via PayPal) Runner Up wins £25 and the third place wins £15, all prizes via your PayPal account. No edits allowed in selection posts No losses incurred for losers or Non Runners Replacement selections for NR's can be posted but must be before the first race deadline All Bets must be posted prior to the first race each day (no exceptions) Not compulsory to enter all 4 days (so if you miss the first day or two you can still take part) Leaderboard posted each evening All welcome 
 
No need to register

15:30 Southwell, Sooqaan @ 4.5 at Bet365

I should be in the final, if only i'd remembered to post at the beginning 

Finally joined the forum after a year of reading your thoughts.Very difficult games this week coming from the FA cup matches..West Ham Arsenal is a no bet result for me.Once bookies give Arsenal these high odds away they rarely come back with anything.Should be a BTTS match though.
I love the Cardiff Huddersfield match.Home team for a DNB.
The rest i will pass....

@Tiffy
Nice Opinions from you, but why you not fancy Shrewsbury. Most Players of Stoke are against Coach Rowett and Bojan and Bauer, both Players made this "offical" in Social Media. Lost against Birmingham and Bristol - and made a Draw against Bolton. In all 3 Games they played very poor. The quality is for sure very High, but maybe they didn´t want show it, because of Rowett.
So i  think if Rowett will not get sacked today i will play in the evening a Double Chance here.

Alavés x Valência - Btts @2.00 

There's no value at all in what you've suggested. You'll cash both at terrible odds if the final score reads either 0-2 or 0-3, and cashing one will lose you money.
Spurs did have the two replays last winter, but over the years this hasn't been a typical outcome. Really, there's no way to handicap a match like this. This represents the highest odds on a home dog since I started keeping track. If you look at the matches in the round of 32 with a home dog of more than 8.00, you get one draw, four losses by exactly one goal, one loss by two and one loss by four. With these bets taken together, you'd profit in one of those seven circumstances. In the round of 16, there are ten such matches, and you'd have profited from three of them.

Crystal Palace V Grimsby Town
Grimsby Town +2.0 AH @ 2.17 Matchbook
I agree with @Tiffy here in the sense that Palace are probably priced a bit too short for this match. Grimsby are pretty high up the form table in league two and they have a chance to at least make the scoreline look respectable here.
Hodgson says he is taking the competition seriously but is likely to rotate 7 or 8 players for this game. We've already established that Palace are not the best home team in the EPL and have really struggled to score goals on their own patch so far this campaign. Ok so the cup is a separate competition but Palace's home form in the league is a cause for concern.
Domestic cup games are usually difficult to predict and most bets are a bit of a punt. I only play at half stakes in these kinds of situations so it's time to relax and throw some quids on the bonfire.
I have quite a few games on my shortlist for this card but currently waiting for manager interviews and team news, will post again if I take anything else.
 

Manchester City vs Liverpool
Next up is the big one. Title contenders Manchester City and Liverpool go head-to-head in this epic clash at the Etihad Stadium tonight for an 8pm kick-off. Could the outcome of this match play a pivotal role in deciding which team wins the Premier League title this season or are we all being a little dramatic?
Manchester City had endured a rough patch of 3 defeats in 4 league games before their 3-1 win away to Southampton in their last game. It had some suggesting the wheels had come off the Pep Guardiola express. Was it a blip or are teams starting to work out how to deal with City's attacking prowess now? The club remains in 3rd place in the league but a win here would see them move up to 2nd and to within 4 points of leaders Liverpool.
Jurgen Klopp's side are still unbeaten this season. The Reds have won 9 league games on the bounce and with the team currently 6 points clear at the top of the table before this game their fans are starting to dream. This is arguably their toughest challenge to date though. They come to the Etihad Stadium where they have only won 1 of their last 9 visits but I think we can all agree that they'd certainly take a draw here.
Liverpool do hold the better record over City in recent years. The Reds have won 4, drawn 1, and lost 1 of their last 6 meetings. This is also the strongest Liverpool side in decades according to a lot of pundits so should we be expecting another Liverpool victory?
It appears Klopp has the best of Guardiola in their head-to-head battles. No other manager in Guardiola's career has given him more grief than Klopp. Their time together in the Bundesliga and Premier League has seen Klopp get the better of his counterpart on more occasions than not.
History suggests there may be favour for City. Not only have City won their first match of the calendar year in 11 of the last 12 years but Liverpool are notoriously mediocre at best during January. The Reds have won just 5 of their last 17 matches in all competitions played in January. They have lost 9 of the 24 matches played under Klopp in that month.
This is one of the most unpredictable games yet. This Liverpool side is exceeding the expectations of most of us. City have faltered but is it simply a case of them getting their bad patch out the way and Liverpool yet to have theirs? No team has ever failed to go on and win the Premier League title with the lead Liverpool had coming into the new year. I'm just not sure they'll win this one. It feels like it's about time Guardiola got one over on Klopp. I can see a 2-1 or 3-2 win for City here. A cheeky bet is Sergio Aguero to score anytime given he's bagged 6 goals in 6 home league games against Liverpool.
Manchester City to Win @ 2.10 with BetVictor
Anytime Scorer: Sergio Aguero @ 2.25 with Ladbrokes

@Xcout
Appreciate that mate. I think the markets have broadly struggled to get a grip on Wolves games so far this campaign. The Palace +0.50 closing line was around 1.7 so the market adjusted eventually but basically they were very slow here and this gave us space for a nice value bet.
 

A Shoutout to @Mindfulness for taking Crystal Palace side! I should have listen to him!

A Shoutout to @Mindfulness for taking Crystal Palace side! I should have listen to him!

Sorry! I needed to fit in a preview when my thoughts on the game were fresh. As you say, the odds on a win for the United are too low for me. I think United will still win but at that price it's not tempting enough. If anyone can upset the apple cart, it's Benitez against United.

Wolverhampton Wanderers V Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace +0.50 AH @ 1.89 Matchbook
Fairly standard value play in my view, I respect the fact that Wolves are in a good moment but Palace could prove to be awkward opposition here.
We know that Palace struggle at home if teams sit back against them but away they are more dangerous. I expect Wolves to be expansive and play an open and attacking game. This will leave space for the likes of Zaha, van Aanholt, Wan-Bissaka and co whilst Hodgson's insistence on playing 4 defensive midfielders can stifle the likes of Neves and Moutinho. We saw Wolves struggle against this dynamic in their home game against Huddersfield and it could be the same here.
Both teams are poor at converting their chances, ELO ratings are almost level whilst key goal metrics are bang on equal. I don't really understand why Palace are such a big price here, in my view the asian line has been set incorrectly for this match. 
Palace to cover 2 of the 3 outcomes at 1.75 or above seems to be a decent value bet.

I was just writing about, when your reply appeared. Therefore I had to see what you had provided us with! And as always spot on analysis.
My two cents:
I suspect Manchester United have the edge for this match, the team really turn around once Mourinho left the building. Another case of study for the players sacked the coach? 
For this match the away victory odds have fallen to much. On the other side Newcastle is heading towards a tough fixtures and judging from his recent form, it might end up in relegation positions. Still as BH correctly stated the good results of Benitez against Manchester United are something to have into consideration. I will follow BH HT/FT bet with a medium stake.
 

Newcastle vs Manchester United
It's an unpredictable set of fixtures due to the previous congestion of matches so I'm going for the televised game today between Newcastle and Manchester United that is scheduled to kick off at 8pm from St James' Park. Can the home side pick up a much-needed win or will the travelling team extend their winning run to four league games?
Newcastle are experiencing another dour season by their high standards. The fans are still waiting for Mike Ashley to sell the club and with the January transfer window now open it's another stark reminder of the lack of investment the team is receiving. The club are 15th place but precariously just 3 points above the relegation zone. Defeat here could potentially see them only outside the bottom three on goal difference.
Manchester United look freed from the shackles of Jose Mourinho's negative tactics under the stewardship of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer. The Red Devils haven't really been challenged yet having notched up solid wins against lower-placed sides in the form of Cardiff, Huddersfield, and Bournemouth but this might be a trickier game than many anticipate.
United didn't have the easier of rides here over the past couple of seasons. It was a 3-3 draw on 12th January, 2016 and then Newcastle won 1-0 on 11th February, 2018 in the past two fixtures between the two clubs at St James' Park. Will a new manager halt this bad run of results for United at this ground?
One interesting fact is that Rafa Benitez has proved to be a thorn in the side of Manchester United over recent times. The Spanish manager has now won his last four home games against United when in charge of English clubs. It's a record that covers his time at Newcastle, Chelsea, and Liverpool.
Generally, the omens favour United, if you're into that superstitious stuff. United have lost just 1 of their last 8 league games against Newcastle. United have only lost 2 of their last 22 first matches of the new calendar year. They also possess the best January record of any club in the Premier League with 67 wins from their 99 games played in this month in the Premier League era. Furthermore, Newcastle have lost 7 of their 10 home league games this season.
There's a chance of history being made in this game as well. If Solskjaer wins then he will become the first United manager since Sir Matt Busby in 1946 to win his first four matches in charge. Looking at the state of the two clubs right now, I can see United doing it. It might not be a rout like their last three games but a 2-0 or 2-1 win should do it.
Manchester United HT/FT @ 2.50 with Ladbrokes
Total Goals Scored Over 2.5 @ 1.72 with Unibet

I´m on a Double here today.
I will go with the Fav´s and bet on Wins from Arsenal and Spurs.
Both with MUST WIN´s today, i think both Coaches want the win´s and they have in my opinion perfect Opponents.
Both teams can rotate at Weekend in FA Cup, so i think today Gunners and Spurs will field strong (maybe strongest) possible Starting XI. Spurs will face Cardiff, where i personal think they are to weak in Offensive, to make trouble in Spurs defensive.

Cardiff vs Tottenham
My first preview of this New Year's Day schedule of games will try to build on what @thfc has said but I think he's got it nailed on. It's Cardiff at home to Tottenham in a 5:30pm kick-off at the Cardiff City Stadium and I'm not as optimistic as other Bluebirds fans are heading into this one.
Cardiff picked up their first away win of the season. Despite what the highlights showed it was a game I felt we deserved to win. We generally dealt with Leicester quite comfortably and only had ourselves to blame for not scoring the decisive goal earlier. It's a win that has solidified our position in 16th place to remain 3 points clear outside the relegation zone.
Tottenham suffered a surprising 3-1 loss at home to Wolves in their last game. It wasn't a result many people saw coming with Spurs leading 1-0 with just 18 minutes left. It's a defeat that now leaves Mauricio Pochettino's side 9 points off the title pace and needing something special to get back into the title race.
This could be a harsh bump back to reality for Cardiff. Our home record is decent but Manchester United exposed us on home territory just as Manchester City did earlier in the season. We simply can't cope when teams pile forward on our back line. We might score on the counter but for every goal or two we'll get we'll concede 3-4 goals when teams do that.
Pochettino will be looking for a reaction from his players. I'm not saying Tottenham will turn us over but I'm not expecting to come away from the Cardiff City Stadium having witnessed us take anything from this game. This is a very good Tottenham side and I can see them grinding out a 1-0 or 2-0 victory.
On a personal note, it's a poignant moment for me. I had a season ticket for Cardiff from the 1999/2000 season when we were in the old Division 4 right up until the season we first got promoted to the Premier League. A combination of the re-brand and having my first child all came together to prevent me from renewing my season ticket for that first Premier League season. For one reason or another, usually family or work related commitments, I've never managed to see Cardiff live in the Premier League. Tomorrow, that changes. Here's hoping we can take all three points! May the best team win, @thfc!
Tottenham to Win to Nil @ 2.53 with MarathonBet
Total Goals Scored Under 2.5 @ 2.20 with Betfair

Thank you BillyHills (Graham Sarson).  Woodysway also attended a PL day at the races many years ago and met Paul Ross and some of the original PL punters.  He loved the Forum, and for many years posted on the Tipsters Challenge.  Thank you PL for all the pleasure you gave my lovely husband.

Sounds like Graham was quite a guy, with great support from his wife Janet. Our thoughts are with all his family and friends at this sad time.

Some very sad news reached me this weekend when I was told that one of our members Woodys Way, had passed away over the Christmas period.
His real name was Graham, he had been ill for a while and his wife kindly let me know yesterday. I met Graham once while I was on holiday in Dorset, he had been a member of the PL since 2004.
Woody was a keen member of most of our competitions and never missed a TC in 14 years, he was completely blind and I once helped him set up some screen-reading software so he could read the sporting life by hovering his mouse over the words, it was amazing how he coped. In later years his lovely wife Janet read out the fixtures and posted his fancies.
As a mark of respect Woodys Way will be left in the latest tables for the duration of this mini-season.
Thanks, BH