Darran

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Only 4 runners which is a big drop of from the huge field we had for the race last year, but we still have a fascinating contest. I am going to put at the start in case you only look for the tip that for me this is a race to watch rather than have a bet on. 
Bob And Co is the horse Maxwell nominated as his Foxhunter horse on Racing TV a couple of months back so it will be interesting to see how he gets on in his debut in the UK. His highest Racing Post Rating is 138 for his 3rd in a Listed race at Auteuil in September 2018. The British handicapper has given a mark of 150 which seems plenty high enough to me based on what he has done. He doesn't strike as an obvious Foxhunter winner although we will learn more tomorrow. He really needs to be winning this pretty easily though in my view.
Minella Rocco finished 2nd in a Gold Cup 3 years ago, but he hasn't got anywhere near that sort of form since. He pulled up in 4 races on the bounce before finishing 8th at Ascot back in November. In theory this is a class drop although if Bob And Co is a likely Foxhunter winner then it isn't really a drop from that Ascot race last time. He looks firmly on the downgrade and he probably needs the favourite to under perform to win.
Kashmir Peak is a reasonable pointer, but is form isn't anything special especially in the context of this race. He's been off the track for 10 months as well so it looks an especially tough task on his seasonal return.
Roseyroo is a likeable mare who has clearly had her problems having not run since May 2018 and that she has only run 2 other times since April 2015. Those two dates she ran in the mares race at Cheltenham and was beaten a neck in 2015 before unseating 2 years ago when looking as if she was going to be a player. I'd love to see her win a hunter chase this season, but it would be a surprise if it was to be this one.
Bob And Co is the most likely winner, but I can't be backing him at 4/6 given there are question marks over him as there is every single runner in the field. Who knows Minella Rocco might spring back to life, but he has looked firmly on the downgrade. It wouldn't be the biggest surprise to me if Roseyroo was able to finish 2nd, but I certainly don't feel strongly enough to put it up as a bet. So a race to watch with interest going forward, but not one to be risking any of the hard earned.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

The obvious place to start is with Caid du Berlais who returned with a comfortable success at Buckfastleigh. It was good that there was a bit of depth the form as well as Marcle Ridge came home in 2nd. He won on Cheltenham Hunter Chase night in May and was then beaten by Killaro Boy which I initially thought was disappointing, but given that one was only just beaten in the Summer Cup at Uttoxeter in June it boosted the form. Connections of Marcle Ridge have spoken about aiming him at the Foxhunter so it was good to see Caid du Berlais put him in his place. Caid du Berlais was my ante-post selection for the race last year and he ran no sort of race at Cheltenham, but it came less than 2 weeks after he made his seasonal reappearance and he had a rushed preparation. The run was too bad to be true and he showed that in no uncertain terms when turning the big one at Punchestown into a procession. He was winning that race for the 2nd year running and it emphasised he is clearly one of the best hunter chasers around. Two years ago he was 5th in the race and although he didn't quite see out the trip I think he looks a stronger stayer now. One of the good things about him is that he won't mind what the weather does as he handles any ground and as long as his prep goes better than last season I think he is a huge player in the race. Indeed I am again going to put him up as an ante-post bet in the race as I don't see him being a double figure price come the day so at 14/1 I am happy to play.   Irish contender Some Man won a maiden Hunter Chase at Clonmel a couple of weeks ago and I didn't deal with him at the time because I wasn't really thinking him as a possible for Cheltenham, but he is a general 33/1 chance for the race. His trainer was very complementary after the race stating he is the best horse he has ever trained. They picked him up for just £5.5k, which could look a real bargain, from Paul Nicholls. He didn't show a great deal for him, but for his new connections he has won all 3 starts now. His Clonmel win was decent enough although it was a long way from being good enough to win at Cheltenham and it was only over 2m4f. He also still needs to qualify as neither of his point wins were in open company. Clearly though he is very unexposed and he could be open to any amount of improvement.   News last week was that Seeyouatmidnight was coming out of retirement and will run at Musselburgh next weekend and then at Kelso in a bid to qualify for Cheltenham. At this stage he wouldn't look an obvious winner, but it will be good to see him back in action.   With Hazel Hill missing a clash with Bob And Co at Warwick on Wednesday we could see him line up at Thorpe Lodge on Sunday where Caryto des Brosses is also entered. There was nothing between the two of them at Cheltenham in May and that really is a mouth watering clash if they both turn up. I have not hidden my love for Caryto des Brosses and I do think he is a possible winning hope at Cheltenham. Also Art Mauresque looks set to go to Chipley Park as he looks to get himself qualified. In Ireland we have their big trial at Naas which looks set to be fascinating as well.   Caid du Berlais 0.75pts e/w @ 14/1 with Bet365, William Hill, Betfair, Paddy Power and Betfred   Catching up with the Irish pointing results via the Racing Post and it seems that Shark could have two runners in the race as Rewritetherules won on Sunday and looks set to be aimed at the race. He caused a big surprise when winning a Down Royal Hunter Chase in May and then won at Tipperary 3 days later. The following month he was beaten off 116 in a handicap at Roscommon. It was a good win on Sunday and he looks progressive albeit I am not sure the field was overly strong. He is only 6 and I just wonder if it would be a year too soon for him, but he is certainly an interesting horse.

They were clearly a good selection to win NLN at 5/1, just ashame they've imploded mid-season. We can't always be landing these mid/long odd selections and sooner or later there was going to be a harsh run in the ante-post and it looks like it maybe this season, but like you said we're still only in January and there's a lot of points left to play for.
Even if this campaign ends up being a drought season, we know the selections are sound and we will run better in future.

Havant still have a good chance as they have games in hand but York have played 2 more games than kings Lynn so I would be surprised if they caught them now. I’m going to remain the optimist myself though 

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

The fixture list has set up some huge clashes tomorrow. As mentioned above we have Kings Lynn v York which could well decide who wins the National League North title. In the National League we have Barrow v Bromley which for once is a great pick from BT Sport. In the National League South we have Havant v Wealdstone which could also go a fair way to deciding who wins that title. The top 2 in the BetVictor Northern Premier also play each other as Lancaster host South Shields. Finally in the BetVictor Southern Premier South 1st host 3rd as Truro play Chesham. To have so many top of the table clashes in day is staggering and the results will be fascinating.

Wish I was going myself as it looks a hell of a game. I was tempted to put up York, but the price has come in a little and I am invested heavily in the outright market on them so if they did lose it would be a double blow. Couldn't put you off the draw though if you do want a bet, but I do think York are the better side although Kings Lynn are very impressive at home and are on a hell of a run

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Once the 2 non-runners came out I was pretty confident we were going to get something back as I really didn't fancy the two outsiders, but we always get the odd race per season where we get something weird happening and we certainly got that. 
First thing to say is they went no pace at all which is backed up by the fact the winning time was a minute over standard and that certainly helped the winner. If they had gone a quicker pace I struggle to believe he would have been in contention as late into the race as he was as I can't believe he is in the same league as his rivals. He was beaten in a restricted last time so shouldn't really be winning a hunter chase like this even allowing for the luck he got. Chances are I will be more than happy to take him on next time out.
As for the 3 who failed to finish it is hard to say exactly what would have happened if they had of stayed on their feet. My feeling is the favourite would have won and he was certainly looking the winner when he came down at 2 out. The problem now is that he will need to run in another two races to get qualified for Cheltenham which isn't exactly ideal for connections. Dieu Vivant had been pretty weak in the betting during the day, but he came in for money on track and was backed from 12/1 into 7/1. He travelled into the race well and wasn't done with at all when Arcala fell right in front of him. He was obviously very unfortunate, but could find an opening this season. Ballynagour was amazingly fresh considering he is 14. He clearly wanted to go quicker than they were going, but Alex gave him a very good ride up until he came down at 4 out. He was just started to get competitive and I wouldn't rule him out from winning one of these at some point.
The next race is at Warwick on Wednesday and sadly there are only 6 entries although Bob And Co and Hazel Hill have both been entered along with Minella Rocco so it could be a really interesting race despite the small field.

As you know I was lucky enough to land the Exacta courtesy of simply perming all 5 runners and hoping for the best, but what a shocking return it was! I basically got a 3/1 return on my perm, but I mustn't grumble - I had a little nibble on both outsiders in the race.

Once the 2 non-runners came out I was pretty confident we were going to get something back as I really didn't fancy the two outsiders, but we always get the odd race per season where we get something weird happening and we certainly got that. 
First thing to say is they went no pace at all which is backed up by the fact the winning time was a minute over standard and that certainly helped the winner. If they had gone a quicker pace I struggle to believe he would have been in contention as late into the race as he was as I can't believe he is in the same league as his rivals. He was beaten in a restricted last time so shouldn't really be winning a hunter chase like this even allowing for the luck he got. Chances are I will be more than happy to take him on next time out.
As for the 3 who failed to finish it is hard to say exactly what would have happened if they had of stayed on their feet. My feeling is the favourite would have won and he was certainly looking the winner when he came down at 2 out. The problem now is that he will need to run in another two races to get qualified for Cheltenham which isn't exactly ideal for connections. Dieu Vivant had been pretty weak in the betting during the day, but he came in for money on track and was backed from 12/1 into 7/1. He travelled into the race well and wasn't done with at all when Arcala fell right in front of him. He was obviously very unfortunate, but could find an opening this season. Ballynagour was amazingly fresh considering he is 14. He clearly wanted to go quicker than they were going, but Alex gave him a very good ride up until he came down at 4 out. He was just started to get competitive and I wouldn't rule him out from winning one of these at some point.
The next race is at Warwick on Wednesday and sadly there are only 6 entries although Bob And Co and Hazel Hill have both been entered along with Minella Rocco so it could be a really interesting race despite the small field.

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Kettering's late late winner was very welcome last Saturday to win at 5/1 and with Gainsborough and the 4pts Nap Havant also winning it was a profitable afternoon. Tuesday saw the only bet Stratford win to keep things ticking over. I have 6 bets across Step 2 and Step 3 this weekend.
Southport v Boston (National League North)
Southport's run towards the play-offs has hit the rails of late as they have lost 4 games on the bounce. Granted 2 of those were against Chester and one against York, but they have been very leaky at the back conceding 12 goals in that spell. Their wins in their last 10 games have come against some of the weaker sides in the division as well, Leamington, Kidderminster, Gloucester and Blyth so coming up against one of the better sides like Boston I expect it to be a task they aren't up to. Boston were a bit disappointing to only draw with Curzon last time out, but there only 3 defeats in their last 10 games have come against Kings Lynn twice and Spennymoor when they were in flying form. I think Boston should be favourites to win this so they look a good price.
Slough v Dartford (National League South)
When Steve King first took over at Dartford I mentioned on Twitter that it was a great appointment and they would soon be flying up the table. Why I didn't keep backing them I don't know, but I have hardly put them up for one reason and another yet the have won 6 of their last 7 games. They now look a play-off side and it is no surprise to me as Steve King is a fantastic manager especially at this level. Obviously Slough are flying as well, but they are 4 without a win and they were fortunate to get a point at Billericay last week as they went 2-1 up against the run of play. I don't think there is much at all between these two sides and Dartford are value at 12/5.
Witton Albion v Atherton Collieries (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I opposed Witton last week and they duly lost 3-1 to Gainsbororugh and I am happy to take them on again here. Atherton really co look a big price given they have only lost one of their last 7 league games. They gave Barrow a fright in the FA Trophy as well and have beaten Lancaster and Stalybridge in 2 of their last 3 league games. The slight concern is Atherton's away from as they have only won twice on the road, but I think that is factored into the price here given Witton are in woeful form at the moment.
Stafford v Warrington Town (BetVictor Northern Premier)
I am surprised Warringotn aren't odds on for this. Warrington have drawn 5 of their last 10 games, but have also only lost once in that spell as well. They won their first game in 7 last Saturday and hopefully they can kick on again. This game looks a perfect one to pick up another 3 points given how bad Stafford are. They have lost 9 of their last 10 games and look in a desperate shape. I think any odds against price is good value.
Hendon v Gosport Borough (BetVictor Southern Premier South)
I put up Hendon 4 games ago when they played Harrow and managed to find the game Harrow bounced back to form and they have gone unbeaten since after losing 5 games on the bounce. Hendon then lost to Chesham, but have had two good wins over Weston and Met Police in their last two games. Given they are at home, and 5 of their 6 league wins have been at home, I struggle to see why they should be over 2/1 to beat Gosport here. Gosport have lost their last 2 and have only won one of their last 7 games now. The 4 draws have been against some of the weaker sides in the league as well so they aren't in great form and for me this game is much closer than the bookies have it.
Rushden & Diamonds v Stratford Town (BetVictor Southern Premier Central)
Stratford's win against Redditch was their first away win of the season and obviously this is a risky bet, but as I wrote on Tuesday they look a much improved squad and they could be about to do a Leiston and go on a much improved run. They battered Redditch and should have scored more and did really well against Stourbridge last Saturday. Speaking of Leiston Rushden beat them 3-2 last week, but that was down to a late winner and I do think Stratford have a sporting chance of picking up another 3 points on the back of the Redditch win.
Boston 2pts @ 19/10 with BetVictor (Betfred/Hills)
Dartford 1pt @ 12/5 with Bet365, BetVictor and Betfred
Atherton 1pt @ 12/5 with BetVictor (Marathon)
Warrington 2pts @ 133/100 with Marathon
Hendon 1pt @ 117/50 with Marathon
Stratford 1pt @ 19/5 with Marathon

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.   Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.   3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.   Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.   7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.   The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.   I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.   Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Redditch v Stratford
I was close to putting up Stratford anyway, but I have made them a bet now because of the signings they made at the weekend. These two sides are rubbish, but Stratford have got Dan Sweeney in on loan from Solihull and he has done well when on loan in the National League North this season. He is going to be the best player on the pitch in this game and to be fair apart from the 5-0 hammering against Banbury they have only lost by 1 goal in their last 6 games. Redditch have conceded 32 goals in their last 10 games losing them all and scoring just 6. Stratford have only picked up 2 points on their travels, but they will know this is a must win tonight and I struggle to think they will be cautious. I really do think Stratford are the better side and at 8/5 with Betway I am happy to back them. This game is on a 3G pitch so it should get the go ahead.
Stratford 1pt @ 8/5 with Betway

Great call @Darran, Sweeney with both the goals tonight.

thanks @Darran  Stratford dominated the game