Hunter Chase - 3.30 Ludlow

[Darran]

Slightly surprising that having had 3 entries in the race that David Maxwell does not have a runner in the 2nd Hunter Chase of the season at Ludlow. The other 7 of the 10 original entries do stand their ground though.

 

Alcala is the obvious place to start. You would imagine that the trainer sees him as one of his possible Foxhunter horses although you wouldn't be fully certain of him staying that trip. 3m round here on soft ground shouldn't be an issue though given he is a course and distance winner and he has won on heavy ground. His biggest win was the Summer Plate at Market Rasen in 2017 off a mark of 147 and a performance anywhere near that would be good enough for this. The last time he was seen was in the same race the following year when he was only 6th but it was still a decent effort in the context of this race. You would imagine Nicholls will have got him fit enough after his long lay-off and he has Angus Cheleda on top who is a very good jockey and the fact he is able to claim 7lbs is huge. I can see him riding plenty of winners this season both in hunter chases and points. He is clearly the one they all have to beat.

 

3 runs back Alcala was a 23L 4th behind Cut The Corner at Newton Abbot and at these weights based on that running there wouldn't be a great deal between them. The problem is Cut The Corner looks firmly on the downgrade and the trip and ground both look a big question mark for me. Adam O'Shea has only ever had 4 rides under rules and interestingly Alex Edwards is riding something else in the race given he has ridden him plenty of times in the past including his last two runs.

 

Alex is on former Cheltenham Festival winner (Byrne Group Plate in 2014) Ballynagour who hasn't won a race since landing a Grade 2 at Auteuil in May 2015.  In fairness he raced in Graded races in most of his races since then and he ran with credit on a few occasions. In his last 6 races under rules though he only completed once and that was in the 2017 Grand National. His last run under rules he burst a blood vessel which is always a concern, but he was given plenty of time to get over that as he was off for nearly 2 years when reappearing at Larkhill in December. He fell at 3 out that day, but he was still in front at the time. My feeling was having watched the video that he was beginning to get tired, but given Earth Leader ended up being the winner it was still a top effort after so long off. He then was done for a bit of toe late on at Cottenham at the end of last month behind Art Mauresque. He won't have any worries about the ground and the jockey change from his inexperienced trainer to Alex Edwards is a big plus.

 

7L in front of Ballynagour at Cottenham was Bletchley Castle who did us a good turn when he won in handicap company at Southwell back in June. That was a really poor Class 5 heat though and he was well handicapped off a mark of 99. He is a keen sort who is likely to front run and although that Southwell race was over 3m I have always thought he is better over a shorter trip. The other thing to note is he hasn't gone near soft ground apart from when he was massively outclassed at Galway in August. I think a combination of testing ground and 3m will catch him out here and I can see Ballynagour reversing the form.

 

The only other one to mention is Dieu Vivant. On the pick of his French form he would have a chance of at least hitting the frame in this, but he struggled in two starts over here last year. His last one in May at Uttoxeter he did briefly make a good looking effort, before dropping out. No surprise that the tongue-tie goes on here as he could well have a breathing issue although I am a little surprised he hasn't had a wind op.

 

I think it is hard to see Alcala not winning this. He is surely going to be fit and we know he will handle the ground and he is a course and distance winner. With his very good jockey taking 7lbs off as well it just adds to his already strong case. The problem is the price as a best of 8/15 is too short for me so I am looking at a forecast. I really do struggle to see Cut The Corner or Bletchley Castle being able to finish 2nd as the trip in the conditions look against both of them. With the two outsiders having little chance that leaves us with Ballynagour and Dieu Vivant. Ballynagour will enjoy the ground and the jockey switch is a huge plus. He has run two solid races so far this season in good heats and with a more experienced jockey on I can see him finishing 2nd. I am going to have a small saver on Dieu Vivant though. If the tongue-tie helps him get back to his French form then he will be capable of following the favourite home as well especially as he will clearly enjoy the ground.

 

Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c

Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

[Mindfulness]

10 hours ago, Darran said:

Alcala to beat Ballynagour 1.5pts f/c

Alcala to beat Dieu Vivant 0.5pts f/c

Sorry @Darran, I am new to this horse racing lark and cannot seem to find forecast market on odds checker. Does forecast essentially mean you are predicting 1st and 2nd place? If so I'm guessing Betfair has best odds?

[yossa6133]

15 minutes ago, Mindfulness said:

Sorry @Darran, I am new to this horse racing lark and cannot seem to find forecast market on odds checker. Does forecast essentially mean you are predicting 1st and 2nd place? If so I'm guessing Betfair has best odds?

Yes 1st and 2nd in the right order. The bookies do it to, for example bet 365 have the forecast below the main list of runners.  You click on the one you're selecting to win then click the runner up. They currently have Alcala to bt Ballynagour at 3.37/1.

[yossa6133]

I had no idea Ballynagour was still going! Unhappy memories when I thought he was a certainty after winning his 1st race in the country, only to stop quickly, then he won easily at a big price in a better race...without any of my money on!

[Mindfulness]

14 minutes ago, yossa6133 said:

Yes 1st and 2nd in the right order. The bookies do it to, for example bet 365 have the forecast below the main list of runners.  You click on the one you're selecting to win then click the runner up. They currently have Alcala to bt Ballynagour at 3.37/1.

Ah ok cool, you basically create the forecast coupon on Bet365. Cheers mate.

[yossa6133]

That was a shame, Ballynagour looked to be enjoying himself until he fell as well. Some of the track looked like a ploughed field on the tv coverage, cut up a lot!

[Darran]

Once the 2 non-runners came out I was pretty confident we were going to get something back as I really didn't fancy the two outsiders, but we always get the odd race per season where we get something weird happening and we certainly got that. 

First thing to say is they went no pace at all which is backed up by the fact the winning time was a minute over standard and that certainly helped the winner. If they had gone a quicker pace I struggle to believe he would have been in contention as late into the race as he was as I can't believe he is in the same league as his rivals. He was beaten in a restricted last time so shouldn't really be winning a hunter chase like this even allowing for the luck he got. Chances are I will be more than happy to take him on next time out.

As for the 3 who failed to finish it is hard to say exactly what would have happened if they had of stayed on their feet. My feeling is the favourite would have won and he was certainly looking the winner when he came down at 2 out. The problem now is that he will need to run in another two races to get qualified for Cheltenham which isn't exactly ideal for connections. Dieu Vivant had been pretty weak in the betting during the day, but he came in for money on track and was backed from 12/1 into 7/1. He travelled into the race well and wasn't done with at all when Arcala fell right in front of him. He was obviously very unfortunate, but could find an opening this season. Ballynagour was amazingly fresh considering he is 14. He clearly wanted to go quicker than they were going, but Alex gave him a very good ride up until he came down at 4 out. He was just started to get competitive and I wouldn't rule him out from winning one of these at some point.

The next race is at Warwick on Wednesday and sadly there are only 6 entries although Bob And Co and Hazel Hill have both been entered along with Minella Rocco so it could be a really interesting race despite the small field.

[Mully]

As you know I was lucky enough to land the Exacta courtesy of simply perming all 5 runners and hoping for the best, but what a shocking return it was! I basically got a 3/1 return on my perm, but I mustn't grumble - I had a little nibble on both outsiders in the race.

[Darran]

On colossus a solo player took 90% of the pool by themselves after banking on the winner in the last race. Only staked 30 quid and I bet he can’t believe his luck!

[Mully]

1 minute ago, Darran said:

On colossus a solo player took 90% of the pool by themselves after banking on the winner in the last race. Only staked 30 quid and I bet he can’t believe his luck!

Wow, there was serious money to be made on that card in hindsight. The 10p perm I wrote out Wednesday evening actually came up but I didn't get time to place any pots yesterday and only got involved mid-afternoon. It would have only been a single line of 10p bit still, £100-and-odd quid.