Darran

So Babytaggle returns in the 4.50 at Stratford and if you did happen to back him without the front two in the market a week ago then you collected as he finished 2nd to the favourite albeit a long way behind him. Today's race is an interesting one as there are horses in there where it is impossible to know how they will do. Time To Move On is making his debut for Laura Morgan having shown little over hurdles on soft ground so chasing debut on quick ground is rather different. Quite frankly anyone backing him is having a guess or has knowledge on how he is likely to run. Nicky Henderson can't run too many at this level and Royal Ruby makes his chasing debut after 527 days off the track. Again its guess work about how much ability he retains although in theory based on his hurdles form he has a chance here. Getabuck has obvious claims on his 2nd here last month over 2m1f on his first start after a wind op. The winner has done well since as well. The rest of them are had to fancy and Coniston Spa looks high enough in the handicap based on his runs in maiden points this year. Babytaggle has a higher rating than him as well and has to give him over a stone here once jockey claims are included.
Franz Klammer is clearly a massive improver so even though he was 23L behind him last week it was still a reasonable effort. He comes down in trip and I would like to see them try to make the running again as they did at Huntingdon back in May. One of the 3 mentioned above could win, but I am not that worried about anything else in the race so at a double figure price I am happy to back him.
Babytaggle e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

That was the point. He was handicapped harshly on the Chepstow run because the handicapper had the winner running up to a mark of 114 which is mad and even after being beaten twice since in hunter chases his mark is currently 110 which is still about 20lbs too high. The handicapper doesn't have a clue how to handicap hunter chases and where he used to be too lenient he is now often too harsh. That Chepstow race was a very weak affair, especially as the odds on favourite ran a stinker, but the handicapper rated it as if it was a decent Class 4 chase. Didn't pay off yesterday with the bad mistake but he was very well backed and in the right race at the right price I'd give him another chance.

The meeting at Pakenham on Sunday morning is the first time it has been an all jumps card and with the opening maiden dividing we have a 7 race card to look forward to. Hopefully it can be a profitable morning.
Race 1 (3am) This is a very weak maiden hurdle with those having run over hurdles not showing a huge amount of promise. I thought Roland Garros would be hard to beat, but now he has come out I am going to leave the race alone.   No bet   Race 2 (3.40am) Light Pillar is an ex Joseph O'Brien runner who was 4th in the 2018 Queen Alexandra. He hasn't won in Oz so far, but has done reasonably well at a higher level than his opponents have been running at. His jumping was always foot perfect in his last trial when 2nd to Roland Garros. He could win this, but I think there is a bit more depth to this contest and I will take Pueblo against him to small stakes. He has finished behind 3 good horses when 3rd and 2nd in his two hurdle starts to date and although it would have been nice if he was an e/w price I still think there is a little bit of value in backing him to win the race.   Pueblo 0.5pts win @ 9/2 with Betfred   Race 3 (4.20am) I think this is the most competitive of the maidens and we go up slightly in trip by 300m for this race. Scriba has made two costly mistakes in his two hurdle races so far, but I thought he went backwards from his opening effort when 2nd to Sir Edwin Landseer. If he gets back to that form and his jumping doesn't cost him then he is clearly a player here. I prefer the other one at the head of the market though Zedstar who has been very game in defeat when 2nd in both hurdle starts at Warrnambool. The longer trip shouldn't be a concern based on those efforts and I think he is the one to beat. Caliburn would be a player on his Casterton 2nd, but he didn't back that effort up a week later and that would be a concern. Devon Miss would also be a player on her 2nd at Hamilton and 3rd at Warrnambool, but she was disappointing next time at Casterton when behind Caliburn. I am going to cover Mustang Harry at a big price. He's been too far back in his 3 hurdle starts so far, but I like the way he was staying on at Warrnambool last time and he did the same on the flat last time. This extra trip will clearly suit and if he can be a bit closer to the speed then that wouldn't go amiss either.    Zedstar 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred Mustang Harry 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred   Race 4 (5am) I'm keen on Eckhart here in this BM120 Hurdle. He was more dominant than the winning margin suggests at Casterton last month and he had Bakery Hill in behind in 2nd. I don't think he will reverse the form. Prior to that he had been 2nd at Sandown and had Mawaany Machine behind him in 3rd and again I think he will confirm that form here.   Eckhart 2pts @ 15/8 with Betfred   Race 5 (5.40am) Flying Agent cost us last time when getting turned over at $1.30 at Warrnambool. He usually thrives in heavy ground so it was a bit surprising to see that his jockey felt he did stretch out in the conditions when he came to win the race. Granted the ground was especially bad and he has a chance to make amends here back over hurdles. His from so far this prep had been really strong winning a BM120 Hurdle, the Brierly Steeplechase and a flat race at Bendigo. Instigator is pretty consistent and did win over course and distance earlier in the season. IT wouldn't surprise me if he won, but he just seems to be struggling against the better opposition this time around. Wolfe Tone is interesting. He bolted up really impressively in the maiden hurdle on this card last year and followed that up when winning a BM120 at Sandown beating Instigator. He usually takes a few runs to get going so he should improve plenty for his Sandown hurdle run in May when only 7th as that was just his 2nd start this prep and he's had two solid flat runs since. He should be ready to peak here.   The other one with a chance is obviously Norway. He ran in the Derby in the same year that Broome did and they both won races on July 4th. Norway won a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool and Broome won a G1 in France! Norway bolted up and clearly had a superior engine to the others as his jumping wasn't always great. This will be a much stiffer test, but it's interesting that connections are sticking him straight into a feature as they could have continued to go through the grades with him.   It looks a fascinating contest and clearly either Flying Agent or Norway are likely winners, but I prefer to chance Wolfe Tone e/w at bigger odds. He was so impressive here a year ago and he is sure to be reaching his peak for this contest so I think he is over priced.   Wolfe Tone 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred   Race 6 (6.20am) It didn't work out for Big Blue when connections sent him to Europe a couple of seasons back. He ran 3 times and ended up being only 19th in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. My feeling was he was too high in the handicap to ever do anything over here, but he does have plenty of ability and I think he can make a winning chasing debut. He's had plenty of trials leading into this and although he was only 4th in the last of them he wasn't asked for too much of an effort and he jumped really well. I suspect Alfie Dee will show more than he did 1st up after a tendon injury, but he might need another run. Britannicus wouldn't be out of it and Longclaw has been pretty consistent over fences so farm, but neither would have Big Blue's class.   Big Blue 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred   Race 7 (7am) The Mosstrooper looks a cracking contest despite the small field. Ablaze is one of the best jumpers in Australia and he took the Grand Annual and Grand National Hurdle last season before being beaten in the Grand National Chase. In the last couple of months he has had 3 trials and a run on the flat when he was well beaten. His last trial was a winning one in the same heat that Big Blue ran in. He did win on his first chase back last season over this sort of trip, but that wasn't a feature and he is more of a stayer. I just wonder if this will be enough of a test for him so I will oppose him here. The Dominator was a good winner of the Thackeray at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago, but the ground wont be anywhere near as testing here. You can't rule out Australian Chase winner Riding High either who did it well that day and has had a couple of flat starts since to keep him ticking over. The selection though will be Social Element who has really impressed me in his two starts over fences so far. He bolted up at Warrnambool last time and he clocked a quicker time than The Dominator did despite carrying 6kgs more. The ground will be better, but that shouldn't be an issue for this classy flat horse. He is the one they all have to beat for me.   Social Element 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred

The meeting at Pakenham on Sunday morning is the first time it has been an all jumps card and with the opening maiden dividing we have a 7 race card to look forward to. Hopefully it can be a profitable morning.
Race 1 (3am) This is a very weak maiden hurdle with those having run over hurdles not showing a huge amount of promise. I thought Roland Garros would be hard to beat, but now he has come out I am going to leave the race alone.   No bet   Race 2 (3.40am) Light Pillar is an ex Joseph O'Brien runner who was 4th in the 2018 Queen Alexandra. He hasn't won in Oz so far, but has done reasonably well at a higher level than his opponents have been running at. His jumping was always foot perfect in his last trial when 2nd to Roland Garros. He could win this, but I think there is a bit more depth to this contest and I will take Pueblo against him to small stakes. He has finished behind 3 good horses when 3rd and 2nd in his two hurdle starts to date and although it would have been nice if he was an e/w price I still think there is a little bit of value in backing him to win the race.   Pueblo 0.5pts win @ 9/2 with Betfred   Race 3 (4.20am) I think this is the most competitive of the maidens and we go up slightly in trip by 300m for this race. Scriba has made two costly mistakes in his two hurdle races so far, but I thought he went backwards from his opening effort when 2nd to Sir Edwin Landseer. If he gets back to that form and his jumping doesn't cost him then he is clearly a player here. I prefer the other one at the head of the market though Zedstar who has been very game in defeat when 2nd in both hurdle starts at Warrnambool. The longer trip shouldn't be a concern based on those efforts and I think he is the one to beat. Caliburn would be a player on his Casterton 2nd, but he didn't back that effort up a week later and that would be a concern. Devon Miss would also be a player on her 2nd at Hamilton and 3rd at Warrnambool, but she was disappointing next time at Casterton when behind Caliburn. I am going to cover Mustang Harry at a big price. He's been too far back in his 3 hurdle starts so far, but I like the way he was staying on at Warrnambool last time and he did the same on the flat last time. This extra trip will clearly suit and if he can be a bit closer to the speed then that wouldn't go amiss either.    Zedstar 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred Mustang Harry 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred   Race 4 (5am) I'm keen on Eckhart here in this BM120 Hurdle. He was more dominant than the winning margin suggests at Casterton last month and he had Bakery Hill in behind in 2nd. I don't think he will reverse the form. Prior to that he had been 2nd at Sandown and had Mawaany Machine behind him in 3rd and again I think he will confirm that form here.   Eckhart 2pts @ 15/8 with Betfred   Race 5 (5.40am) Flying Agent cost us last time when getting turned over at $1.30 at Warrnambool. He usually thrives in heavy ground so it was a bit surprising to see that his jockey felt he did stretch out in the conditions when he came to win the race. Granted the ground was especially bad and he has a chance to make amends here back over hurdles. His from so far this prep had been really strong winning a BM120 Hurdle, the Brierly Steeplechase and a flat race at Bendigo. Instigator is pretty consistent and did win over course and distance earlier in the season. IT wouldn't surprise me if he won, but he just seems to be struggling against the better opposition this time around. Wolfe Tone is interesting. He bolted up really impressively in the maiden hurdle on this card last year and followed that up when winning a BM120 at Sandown beating Instigator. He usually takes a few runs to get going so he should improve plenty for his Sandown hurdle run in May when only 7th as that was just his 2nd start this prep and he's had two solid flat runs since. He should be ready to peak here.   The other one with a chance is obviously Norway. He ran in the Derby in the same year that Broome did and they both won races on July 4th. Norway won a maiden hurdle at Warrnambool and Broome won a G1 in France! Norway bolted up and clearly had a superior engine to the others as his jumping wasn't always great. This will be a much stiffer test, but it's interesting that connections are sticking him straight into a feature as they could have continued to go through the grades with him.   It looks a fascinating contest and clearly either Flying Agent or Norway are likely winners, but I prefer to chance Wolfe Tone e/w at bigger odds. He was so impressive here a year ago and he is sure to be reaching his peak for this contest so I think he is over priced.   Wolfe Tone 1pt e/w @ 17/2 with Betfred   Race 6 (6.20am) It didn't work out for Big Blue when connections sent him to Europe a couple of seasons back. He ran 3 times and ended up being only 19th in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival. My feeling was he was too high in the handicap to ever do anything over here, but he does have plenty of ability and I think he can make a winning chasing debut. He's had plenty of trials leading into this and although he was only 4th in the last of them he wasn't asked for too much of an effort and he jumped really well. I suspect Alfie Dee will show more than he did 1st up after a tendon injury, but he might need another run. Britannicus wouldn't be out of it and Longclaw has been pretty consistent over fences so farm, but neither would have Big Blue's class.   Big Blue 1pt @ 7/4 with Betfred   Race 7 (7am) The Mosstrooper looks a cracking contest despite the small field. Ablaze is one of the best jumpers in Australia and he took the Grand Annual and Grand National Hurdle last season before being beaten in the Grand National Chase. In the last couple of months he has had 3 trials and a run on the flat when he was well beaten. His last trial was a winning one in the same heat that Big Blue ran in. He did win on his first chase back last season over this sort of trip, but that wasn't a feature and he is more of a stayer. I just wonder if this will be enough of a test for him so I will oppose him here. The Dominator was a good winner of the Thackeray at Warrnambool a couple of weeks ago, but the ground wont be anywhere near as testing here. You can't rule out Australian Chase winner Riding High either who did it well that day and has had a couple of flat starts since to keep him ticking over. The selection though will be Social Element who has really impressed me in his two starts over fences so far. He bolted up at Warrnambool last time and he clocked a quicker time than The Dominator did despite carrying 6kgs more. The ground will be better, but that shouldn't be an issue for this classy flat horse. He is the one they all have to beat for me.   Social Element 2pts @ 11/8 with Betfred

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

4.50 Cartmel
When the hunter chase season ended last month I mentioned that Blackjacktennesse was the perfect example of a horse that had been wrongly handicapped by the handicapper as he can't handicap hunter chases. Given he was rated 68 going into the Chepstow hunter chase in April how on earth he decided to stick a horse who had never won before up to 68 I don't know. The form of the race also hasn't worked out and he just wasn't worthy of that mark. Amazingly the handicapper has actually admitted that he did put him into high because after just two runs he has dropped to 83. He ran awfully at Ffos Las on his first start after Chepstow, but there was much more promise at Uttoxeter earlier in the month when he was 4th over 2m4f. The step back up in trip should suit based on his Chepstow run and with his jockey claiming 3 I think he is down to a mark that he can run well off and possibly win off. It is a weak contest where another ex hunter chaser Dee Star would be one of the main dangers as he likes Cartmel although he hasn't added to his hunter chase win in 2019. Breaking The Ice seems to be getting his act together as well and looks another likely danger, but if the selection can run as well as he did last time and at Chepstow then he's over priced at double figures.
Blackjacktennessee e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365
 
NB best price currently 15/2 with William Hill which is to 4 places

He tips in races that will be fairly robust markets though, I was more talking about the online tipsters who tip in the low grade races and force moves that way. 

But then you have missed the price and the horse might not be value any longer. Some people would go in again if a horse drifts out. It would be very rare for me to wait to back a horse to see if it gets backed or not. If you think a horse is going to win and the price is value then back it. If it drifts then make a decision if you want to cash out for a small loss or not, but unless it is from a yard that I would be suspicious of it really wouldn't worry me that much. 

As regards to drifters I think it all depends on who the horse is trained by. There are some trainers whose horses you wouldn't want to go anywhere near if they took a walk in the market. The one I put up today drifted before the off and was double figures on Betfair which did give me a bit of concern as the yard usually back their horses if fancied. As it turned out it won pretty easily having looked the winner from a long way out. Sometimes horses just drift because others are being backed and I think in this case this is what happened here. 

I think the other thing to note is why a horse has shortened in the first place. My tip yesterday shortened after I tipped it and it could just have been a case that everyone who wanted to back it was on in the morning. Maybe people were laying it come race time as they were only looking at its rules form. I think quite a few of these horses that shorten the night before or in the morning are because a tipster has put them up and therefore come race time if the general public want to be with something else then it will drift back out. Nothing sinister about that at all. I think the go to thought with gambles or drifters are connections either fancy them or don’t fancy them and yes that will be true in some cases, but often it won’t be.

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

I think the other thing to note is why a horse has shortened in the first place. My tip yesterday shortened after I tipped it and it could just have been a case that everyone who wanted to back it was on in the morning. Maybe people were laying it come race time as they were only looking at its rules form. I think quite a few of these horses that shorten the night before or in the morning are because a tipster has put them up and therefore come race time if the general public want to be with something else then it will drift back out. Nothing sinister about that at all. I think the go to thought with gambles or drifters are connections either fancy them or don’t fancy them and yes that will be true in some cases, but often it won’t be.

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

As regards to drifters I think it all depends on who the horse is trained by. There are some trainers whose horses you wouldn't want to go anywhere near if they took a walk in the market. The one I put up today drifted before the off and was double figures on Betfair which did give me a bit of concern as the yard usually back their horses if fancied. As it turned out it won pretty easily having looked the winner from a long way out. Sometimes horses just drift because others are being backed and I think in this case this is what happened here. 

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)

More Buck's ran an absolute stinker on Sunday although if you did back Babytaggle without the front two in the betting you did have a winner and he remains one to keep an eye on.
The 2.30 at Uttoxeter is a really weak contest where hardly any of them have any credentials which suggests they can win a race. There are two horses here who both come off the back of a maiden point win. I was at Chaddesley Corbett to see That's Me win and it was a very weak contest (the 2nd pulled up next time) which suggests to me that a mark of 92 is too high. To be fair under rules he has been running over shorter and over hurdles so maybe he will improve for 3m and fences as he did when he won last time, but to me he needs to come down the weights even in a weak race like this. 
The other horse Go On Chez makes much more interest. Again he is going over rules fences for the first time having shown very little over hurdles and shorter trips last year. His 3 runs in points have been good though and although his win was over 2m4f last time I actually think his best run was when he was 2nd at Garthorpe on quick ground in April. The horse who beat him was making his debut and made £45k at the sales and was also giving him 10lbs so I think it was a very good effort. All 3 runs suggest a mark of 78 is one he can win off and in my view they were stronger races than the one That's Me won. He is only 5 so could be finally showing his potential which he wasn't able to do last year.
Sometimes in these races something comes from nowhere to win, but outside of Lawtop Legend and Pakie's Dream I couldn't see any dangers to Go On Chez. All bookies apart from Bet365 (who are also shortest price anyway at the time of writing) and BetVictor are going 5 places and it would be disappointing if he wasn't at the very least able to do that.
Go On Chez e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill, Betfair, Betfred (5 places)