Darran

Cheltenham Hunter Chase night is here and as usual I have previewed the whole card with something about every horse running tonight. The bets are at the top for easy access and the previews below that. Hopefully it will be a good and profitable evening and Bradley Gibbs might well end up with a 4-timer.   List of bets 4.50 - Fier Jaguen 5pts @ 4/5 with everyone apart from BetVictor and Coral who are 5/6 (take up to 8/13) 5.25 - Theshoddytradesman 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Hills who are 10/3 (take up to 5/2) & Lift Me Up 0.5pts @ 5/2 with eveyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 11/4 (take up to 2/1) 6.00 - Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 15/8 (take up to 6/4) & Trio For Rio 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Bet365 who are 7/2 (take up to 5/2) 6.35 - Premier Magic to beat Dandy Dan 1pt f/c and Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (365 are 15/2 and take up to 6/1) 7.10 - Highway Jewel 3pts @ 10/11 with everyone (take up to 8/11) & Sine Nomine 0.5pts @ 10/3 with everyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 7/2 and 365 who are 3/1 (take up to 5/2) 7.45 - Law Of Gold 2pts @ 13/8 with everyone apart from Hills who are 7/4 (take up to 6/4) & Step Back 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone (Paddys and Betfair are 4 places and take up to 8/1) 8.17 - Solomon Grey 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 13/2 (take up to 5/1) & Fix It All 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet, Willam Hill, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 3/1)   4.50 Envious Editor - Looked like winning this race last year as he cruised into contention only to then get outbattled by Envoye Special and I never thought I would see a horse get outbattle by him. Landed the first hunter chase of the season by beating Singapore Saga which is decent enough form. He then disappointed at Hereford before running as well as could have been in the Walrus at Haydock when an 18L 2nd to Famous Clermont. After that run he left Joe O'Shea's yard and ran no more than OK at Ludlow when 3rd behind Fix It All and Espoir De Teillee. I wouldn't rule him out totally, but I don't think he has the class of a couple of these and hard not to have his finishing effort last year in the back of your mind.   Caryto Des Brosses - Has been one of the best hunter chasers around when he's not been injured over the years. He was beaten a neck by Hazel Hill on this card in 2019 and then lost out by the same margin in the Stratford Foxhunters to Wonderful Charm. He then only had 1 run in 2020 and 2021, but returned last year in good form and looked the winner on this card last year until Dandy Dan came through with a late run to beat him. This year he returned with a solid win at Southwell, before running below par at Newbury when 5th behind Lift Me Up. I think the ground was the big issue that day though and I'm prepared to look over that effort. He had a perfect prep for this when bolting up at Garthorpe a couple of weeks ago in a quick time. It is interesting they are dropping him back to 2m and he was certainly speedy enough for 2m4f in his younger days and I think he will be fine over it.   Santon - Looks like he doesn't really stay 3m as he was beaten at Garthorpe a couple of times a year ago in Opens and in his last run he was beaten when falling at the last in a 3 runner Ladies Open at Shelfield Park in March. Prior to that though he ran well to finish 2nd to Time Leader and then won over 2m4f back at Leicester the following week. That was a weak race though and he can make mistakes which would be a concern round here. He would need the two leading horses to run below par to have any chance.   Takethepunishment - Another horse who has had his issues over the years as he has only run 17 times and is 13. Made a winning hunter chase debut when landing last year's Buccleuch Cup at Kelso with ease. That wasn't a strong race though and he was only 3rd to Point The Way at Perth following that. Has won both points this season although they backed up my view point that he looks a horse to have plenty of stamina. The race he won last time at Overton took 6m 53s to run and he got himself outpaced between the final 2 fences before staying on to win. So I have a big concern about the trip and I doubt he would be good enough anyway.   Famoso - Ran in this race last year when a well beaten 5th. He has been beaten 6 times in points this season and remains a maiden. He doesn't look to even stay 2m4f so the trip is right, but he will be outclassed again.   Fier Jaguen - Clearly you all know what I think about this horse and he was a bit unfortunate at Aintree as he just pecked on landing at the 7th which is the ditch on the run to Bechers'. Clearly jumping out to his right didn't help, but the fact he was so bold over his fences meant he just pecked and Bradley had little chance of staying on. He seemed to love the experience though as he jumped a fair few of the other fences with the field. I think he would have been 1st or 2nd if he had remained in the race and whilst I am a big fan of Caryto Des Brosses I just don't think he is as good as Fier Jaguen. His 3 pointing performances this year have been so impressive and in the last two the times he clocked were quick and the speed rating he received was very high. I don't have any concerns about the trip for him, because he has such a high cruising speed that he just going to blast off in front and it will be a case of catch me if you can and I don't think they will catch him. I obviously expect he will jump right again, but apart from Caryto Des Brosses is the only horse class who can get near him and I think he will still be more than good enough to win.   Fils Spirtuel - Showed a bit of promise in maiden hurdles in the 19/20 season for Willie Mullins, but he hasn't progressed and has struggled in Restricted's for his new trainer. Does run like he needs 2m, but unlikely to be good enough.   Josh The Plod - Won a couple of times last year in the South East which is pretty much the weakest area when it comes to pointing. Had 3 starts this season and run no more than OK. Makes the running, but that is unlikely to happen here unless he goes really fast and shouldn't be good enough.   Precious Bounty - A solid pointer and his best run so far this season wasn't either of his wins, but his 2nd to Law Of Gold at Garthorpe. That was the only time Gina Andrews has ridden him though which might not be a coincidence. He is another one who tends to make the running as he did at Stratford last time when 3rd behind Sine Nomine, but he is unlikely to be able to do that tonight. I think the trip round here will be OK and whilst he will need the main two to disappoint he has a chance of being best of the rest.   Reweritetherules - Was a 14L 3rd in this race last year, but was in better form then so might not be able to even repeat that effort let alone for 2 places better.    Verdict - To me this is a match race between Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and firm preference is for the former. I have made no secret of how much I think of this horse and whilst he wasn't able to show it at Aintree, I fully expect him to show how good he is here. Most of these won't be able to live with his high cruising speed and for me the only way he gets beat is he fail to get round again. I suspect Dale Peters will sit in behind Fier Jaguen and hope that he can pick him up on the run-in, but I don't think he will be able to. I'd be a little surprised if anything else won but Envious Editor and Precious Bounty would be my picks of the rest.   5.25 All Is True - The Eillis team have won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this so clearly he has to be respected as their chosen runner. He is 3/3 for them this season going through the grades and each time they have bene very complementary about him after the race. He won his maiden and restricted with ease both at Horseheath and then he beat Frisson Collonges by 22L at Garthrope in an Intermediate which is his biggest winning margin. That doesn't tell the full story though because he was in a great battle Lagan Valley until that one decided to run out at the last. I think All Is True had the upper hand at time, but it is good form because Lagan Valley has been in very good form this season and he won next time out. A leading contender.   Bonamargy - Did win his Intermediate last time, but that was his 23rd start and if he is good enough then this race has much less quality than I think it does.   Camdonian - Is 3/3 since going pointing for new connections, but I'm not sure there is a huge substance to his form. He did beat a Tom Eillis horse when winning his maiden at Charm Park, but that horse was well beaten next time and just getting the better of Red Opium last time doesn't scream winner of this to me.   Frisson Collonges - Held by both Lift Me Up and All Is True and an unlikely winner.   Lift Me Up - Luckily for him this is a race which doesn't carry a penalty for winning a hunter chase because he is the only horse which has done just that. I thought there was plenty to like about his Newbury win because he didn't jump very well and he showed greenness when hanging in behind the front running 3rd. Drop Flight was flying home to finish 2nd and he was 2nd at Hexham next time. He clearly is a very promising horse, but his jumping round here in a bigger field would worry me. He is named after Geri Horner's first number 1 solo single and her husband Christian Horner is the other owner with her. He has the best form in the race, but on the other hand he is the only one who has been able to show form like that. Clearly one of the possible winners though.   Pyleigh Court - Chris Barber clearly didn't see much in him as he got rid after just 3 starts, but he has gone on to win 3/4 for his new yard. The only time he was beaten was 1st up this season when beaten 0.5L by Theshoddytradesman. He was getting 5lbs from the winner that day and whilst including jockey claims he gets 4lbs here Bradley is way superior to Ella Herbison. The race he won last time was only a match so told us very little. I think you have to give him some sort of chance given how unexposed he is and how close he got to Theshoddytradesman   Quintin's Man - He clearly wasn't suited to 2m4f when he finished 16L behind Theshoddytradesman and Pyleigh Court at Buckfastleigh in March and he showed that by winning over 3m and 3m4f on his next two starts. Whilst he will get a stamina test here, I do think he wants softer ground. It was a fair run when 2nd at Exeter 2 weeks ago, but this race is much stronger than that one so I suspect he will find this hard enough with the ground not ideal.   Slievegar - Does seem to have improved for the change of yard as he's done pretty well pointing this season, but he has been stuffed in the same Cartmel hunter chase twice and it is hard to see him having improved enough to play a part here.   Tekap - Was 2nd in the Restricted Final at Stratford in 2021, but that was a shocking race and he's struggled on the whole since including being 23L behind All Is True at Garthorpe in March.   The New Kid - Finished 2nd beaten 0.75L by Runwiththetide at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday and the rime was by far the quickest on the card, but that race of 4 was the biggest field out of the 5 races and I wouldn't want to read too much into the time. That was the 3rd time he has finished 2nd this season and he pulled up the other time.   Theshoddytradesman - Is 4/4 since coming to the UK and interestingly given this race is 3m2f, 3 of those victories were over 2m4f. He was really impressive over Christmas at Chaddesley Corbett when bolting up by 30L and it was the same card Premier Magic and Fier Jaguen won on as well. He stepped up to 3m next time at Chipley and won by an eased down 30L again. I think this was probably his most impressive performance and he certainly wasn't stopping. His winning time was 10 seconds quicker that Quintin's Man in the following race. Last time he had to work much harder for his success at Buckfastleigh back over 2m4f and only beat Pyleigh Court by 0.5L. His jumping wasn't as good as it can be and I just wonder if he wasn't quite at his best. He always looked like he would always hold on though and the 2-month break isn't going to have done him any harm at all. He is the biggest price of the Gibbs 4, but he still has a massive chance.   Red Opium - Does seem to have improved of late despite only winning 3 of her 16 starts pointing and hasn't been out of the first 2 in her last 5 starts including when winning at Overton on Saturday. He was a 3.5L 2nd to Cambonian in a race where they were the only 2 finishes. The time was decent and he will certainly stay as that race measured as 3m2f and he ran like needed 4m. Jockey change a plus, but whilst he is better than his official rating of 71 I would be surprised if he was good enough to take this.   Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. Nothing overly impressive and at Thorpe Lodge she was beating The New Kid by 0.75L. I always respect the trainers runners and I suspect she would be very well handicapped off a mark of 94, but I'm not sure she is as good as some of these.   Vedict - I am not sure there is as much depth to this race as the numbers suggest and for me the front 3 in the betting are the most like winners. I've had Theshoddytradesman lined up for this since he won at Chaddesley Corbett and whilst he has to go and prove he will stay I think he will. I suspect he wasn't quite at his best the last time and 2 months off will have done him good. All Is True is sure to give it a good go for the Ellis team, but I will save on Lift Me Up. I do have concerns about him jumping wise, but that was only his 5th start and every chance he would have learnt plenty from that experience and you would like to think his jumping and his greenness will be better tonight. Out of the bigger prices I am wary of Runwiththetide from a trainer perspective more than form, but Pyleigh Court could well have been slightly under estimated by the market.   6.00 Bloodstone - Finished 2nd in 3 Restricted's on the bounce before easily winning one at Lockinge. Even so that form is below what will be required to win this.   Bobby Bow - Was missing for 21 months before a decent enough 2nd in the mud at Ffos Las off 106 in a handicap in January. Wasn't anywhere near as good next time though at Ayr and he was a well beaten 3rd of 3 on his pointing debut at Chaddesley last month. Not a total no hoper on the Ffos Las form, but hard to fancy on what he's done since plus the trip might stretch him.   Fairly Famous - Showed the odd glimmer of promise in 4 starts for Olly Murphy, but has really found his form since joining current connections and has won 4/4. He is clearly progressive and this is usually the weakest race on the card, but when you look at the SPs of the last 3 wins (1/2, 1/4 and 1/7) you realise he hasn't beaten an awful lot. Hard to really put a handle on how good he is because of the weakness of the races he's won and I would rather have seen more substance to the form before backing him.   Hidden Charmer - Was a 15L 3rd in this race last year and hard to see where the improvement is going to come to go 2 places better. Has run OK this season, but did go from being beaten a length by Forest Chimes to being beaten 13L by him last time.   Let Me Entertain U - Nothing of the quality of the other two opponents he faced at Taunton last time, but he was well behind from a long way before pulling up and hard to have any confidence about him.   Marcle Ridge - On his day has been a more than useful hunter chaser and pointer and took this race in very easy fashion back in 2019. In 2020 he ran a huge race from the front when finishing 6th in the race that was still known as the Foxhunter then. In 2021 he was a bit disappointing at Warwick and very disappointing at Worcester, but inbetween those two efforts he won the 2m5f race on this card. Last season he started the campaign by beating Famous Clermont at Barbury which even though he has improved since then was still a hell of an effort. He then went and disappointed a bit at Hereford. Maybe he wasn't quite right that day, and he has certainly been a hard horse to keep sound, because he wasn't seen again until this March when he won a Mixed Open with ease at Howick. No doubting that he has the best form in the race and if it is one of his better days then he will be hard to beat.   Moratorium - Thought he had this race won last year until Trio For Rio came and mugged him late on. The 2nd to Not That Fuisse was decent at Wetherby and then he won at Alnwick. Not surprisingly found the Cheltenham Festival too tough, but he ran really poorly at Exeter after that. To be fair that came soon enough and he is better than he showed there and I'm sure he will put up a better showing.   Trio For Rio - Has won this race for the last 2 years. In 2021 he was all out to just hold on and then as I mention above he got up on the run-in to beat Moratorium by a length. He came into that race on the back of a pulled-up effort and he's not coming into this in great form either. He's been outpaced in his last two races when a 17L 2nd and a 5.25L 4th last time. I suspect though his season has been all about landing the hat-trick in this and you couldn't rule him out from landing it.   Verdict - If Fairly Famous did go and win then fair enough, but there isn't much substance to those 1's for me so I think the winner will come from the bottom 3 on the race card. Marcle Ridge has the best form and I would imagine this has been the target for him so he is the main bet. I will also cover Trio For Rio as you obviously can't knock his form in this race.   6.35 Dandy Dan - Great performance to win this race last year under a good ride from Laureen and the 3rd in the Stratford Foxhunters was good as well considering she got caught out a bit round the sharper track. This season he was behind Law Of Gold again on his return at Garthorpe in February where he looked in need of the race in the parade ring before the race. I put him up as a big price outsider at The Festival when James King took over in the saddle, but he struggled to get involved in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. As long as the ground doesn't get too soft here he looks the one most likely to take advantage if Premier Magic under performs.   Myth Buster - Made Premier Magic work hard to win at Chaddesley Corbett in December when beaten 3.5L in the end. There was 5lbs difference in the weights that day and there is 4lbs difference today so fair to say that form shouldn't be reversed and he was well behind him at The Festival when unseating at the 2nd last. He has won over 4m this season and was entered in the 4m race tonight, but connections have opted to run Step Back in that (the right choice I hope). I can see him running well enough, but not sure he is good enough to win even if Premier Magic runs below par.   Poludora - Was 30L behind Myth Buster in February and that pretty much sums up his chances here.   Premier Magic - The Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase is working out very well form wise. Its On The Line won at Punchestown last week, Shantou Flyer won at Exeter, Rocky's Howya has been focusing on pointing, Chris's Dream was running a huge race until falling at Punchestown, Famous Clermont won at Aintree and Vaucelet was 2nd at Punchestown. It was a massive shame that Premier Magic couldn't run at Punchestown last week, but seemingly he has this race at his mercy. The only thing that worries me is his trainer mentioned that he is a bad traveller so had sent him to Ireland early to settle in and clearly a trip to Ireland and back for no reason is hardly ideal. Apart from that though he should be hard to beat and on form he wouldn't even need to be at his best to win.   Encounter A Giant - Was well behind Premier Magic and Myth Buster at Chaddesley over Christmas, but has got his act together in his last two starts winning a Mixed Open at Bangor and then landing the Lady Dudley Cup back at Chaddesley last month. That suggests to me he is in much better form than when he last raced against Premier Magic and Myth Buster and whilst he wont beat an on song Premier Magic he can run well.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Not had any luck under rules so far this season as he was brought down at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and then he decided to jink right at the last back there on Easter Monday and unseat his jockey over the last when the race was won. He didn't really seem to stay when he pulled up in the Intermediate Final on this card last year and ended up pulling up. Maybe something came to light that day as they are prepared to give the course and distance another go. I think he's got a fair bit of ability though so if he does stay a top 3 finish wouldn't surprise.   Trappist Monk - Landed a very weak hunter chase at Fontwell with ease back in March and has since had a walk over and a win at Parham. That along with a win at Charing means he has won 4 on the bounce, but it would be a big surprise if he made it 5 here.   Verdict - This is Premier Magic's race to lose and the only way I can see him getting beaten is if the wasted trip to Ireland has left a mark. If he's in his usual form then it's his race to lose. Dandy Dan is clear 2nd best for me though and I am surprised he's not 2nd favourite so I will back him in the forecast and have a small e/w bet on him.   7.10 Sine Nomine - Jumped terribly when 3rd in the Intermediate Final last year, but clearly based on her Stratford win that has been fixed. She was very well backed ahead of that contest and the money was spot on as she travelled really well throughout the race. Her jumping was spot on and she always looked the most likely winner. I do think the soft ground helped because I think she is the only one who handled it, but given the ease of her success I suspect she would have won anyway. If she brings that jumping performance to this race then she has a leading chance.   Singapore Saga - A likeable mare who ran really well behind Envious Editor in the first hunter chase of the season. She won her next two points and took advantage of Highway Jewel's fall at the 2nd to win the first of those. She then went on to win at Exeter where she outstayed Viroflay and then Darren Andrews did all he could to try and beat Shantou Flyer over the same course and distance last month, but in the end she was outclassed. Went back pointing a couple of weeks ago and toughed it out to win a Mixed Open. Bare form of that race is nothing special, but clearly has a leading chance in this.   Highway Jewel - Was due to run in the Festival Hunter Chase the last 3 years, but in 2021 they forgot to enter her, she was injured last year and then this year they decided to skip the race after she fell at Chipley Park on her reappearance. Clearly that worked out well for the trainer given he won the race anyway, but it also proves how good they think she is. I thought she would have had a right chance in 2021 after she had hammered Hazel Hill in a point that season and she then finished a close 2nd to Latenightpass in a hot hunter chase at Warwick. That year she landed this race and bizarrely she jumped terribly and to her right given she had jumped so well on the whole at Warwick. That has to be in the back of your mind slightly. She had no trouble beating Singapore Saga in her only start last year and was 1/3 to beat her again when she fell. She went to Lydstep on Easter Monday and she made all to win with ease in a quick time. I think she would have been able to win both the races that Sine Nomine and Singapore Saga have won this season and for me she is the best of the 3 runners. They also have to give her weight as she doesn't have a penalty anymore.   Kalabaloo - A former winner of this race 2019, but was put in her place by Feuille De Lune last season and she isn't as good as she was back then. Did win last time out at Charm Park, but would be a surprise if she was able to land this.   Miss Seagreen - Was beaten 30L by Highway Jewel when 3rd in this 2 years ago and her running style suggests she might have been better off in the 4m race. She was ridden by an inexperienced jockey first time out when a staying on 3rd at Larkhill to I K Brunel, but it was a similar story at the same venue in February when ridden by tonight's rider. It happened again at Maisemore last month when 2nd to Another Venture and given she was staying on in this race in 2021 it seems she finds things happening a bit too quick for her over even this trip.   Tangoed - Total no hoper in this contest.   Verdict - I respect Singapore Saga and Sine Nomine's chances and would favour the Stratford winner over the Exeter winner. Highway Jewel has already beaten Singapore Saga and whilst she might have improved a little, I still think Highway Jewel is the better horse. Granted she will more than likely have to jump better than she did when she won this race 2 years ago, but that would appear to be an anomaly so I am happy enough to think she won't repeat that tonight.    7.45 Go Whatever - Clearly stays well as he landed the Sussex National last January, but he pulled up on his hunter chase debut behind Shantou Flyer at Exeter last month and whilst he might have needed it is going to take him to come forward a hell of a lot to get competitive in this.   Shantou Flyer - Has had a hell of a season given he is now 13. Managed to beat Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett in December and then was 2nd to Famous Clermont at Wincanton. He then reversed that form by flying up the hill to finish 3rd to Premier Magic at The Festival to improve his fantastic record in that race. After that he won easily beating Singapore Saga last time at Exeter. Clearly quality wise he is one of the best horses in the race, but my concern is that he failed to stay in this race last year. He had only had one start that season 2 months prior so maybe he wasn't at peak fitness, but I am a little surprised they haven't decided to have another crack at Premier Magic instead of running in this.   Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well to finish 3rd to Dandy Dan in the feature race last year and managed to win a 3 runner handicap at Newton Abbot in August. Returned this season with a staying on 2nd over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow in January to Just Your Type and then the following month again ran like a stayer over 3m when winning at Badbury Rings. Might not be quite good enough to win, but ought to be staying on when some of these have cried enough and a place showing can't be ruled out.   Law Of Gold - I still don't know how he finished 2nd in this race last year. He jumped terribly and I would go as far to say I have never seen a horse jump so badly, especially round Cheltenham, and still go so close to winning. Indeed, he looked like the winner throughout the home straight and fair play to the winner for finding plenty to hold him off. He had issues with his jumping ran he ran at The Festival in the past as well so you couldn't be certain he will show an improved round of jumping tonight, but it could hardly be any worse. After that he finished a very good 2nd to Vaucelet at Stratford. This season he has been seen just twice at Garthorpe and given he tends to need his first race there was certainly no shame in finishing a 14L 2nd to Premier Magic. He went back 3 weeks later and beat Precious Bounty in decent enough style. This and Stratford must be his two main targets and he gets round safely he is likely to go very close.   Another Venture - Not sure he's ever been a horse who has struck me as needing 4m to be seen at his best and he has been well beaten in most of his hunter chase efforts to date albeit against some useful horses. Did win at Maisemore last time which was a decent enough effort, but has a lot of ground to make up on Shantou Flyer based on the Wincanton run.   Desire De Joie - I must admit he is a tricky horse to weigh up for me. He wouldn't be out of this on his 2nd to Dolphin Square at Doncaster last season as he ran a hell of a race to be beaten a short head. He then was outclassed at The Festival behind Billaway and I suspect he wasn't at his best when last of 3 at Thorpe Lodge over Easter. He wasn't seen again until that same race last month and he was last again although he travelled well until tiring late on. The yard do very well with the horses they send hunter chasing so I am wary about him.   Just Your Type - Clearly a horse who is all about stamina given his exploits under rules when with Charlie Longsdon and he has shown it again in points this season winning over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow and then landing the Grimthorpe Gold Cup over 4m1f at Sheriff Hutton a month ago. This race is clearly going to be tougher than either of those, but the fact he's a proven stayer ought to see him go well.   Kilbrew Boy - Only rated 88 under rules and likely to be outclassed here.   Port Of Mars - Was well beaten at Stratford by Sine Nomine last time and whilst this will be a very different test I don't think he will be troubling the main contenders.   Potters Approach - Beaten 60L in a point 2 weeks ago and that sums up his chance.   Step Back - I have been keen to see him run in this race for most of this season so am very pleased to see him turn up. He is an out and out stayer who likes to front run and it was only a year ago he ran a creditable 4th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown to Hewick. This season he ran well in a couple of handicaps before not running his race at all at Wincanton on hunter chase debut. He then went to Taunton and made the running before finding himself outpaced turning for him. He stayed on again though and ended up getting 4th beaten 15L by I K Brunel. 3m round their on quick ground would not have been ideal and he then went to Carlisle over 3m in heavy ground and he ran his best race of the season and only just being beaten by Billy Bronco who thrives in such conditions. I certainly wouldn't rubbish the form because the winner was well beaten at Hexham last time because the ground wasn't soft enough for him that day. He was never going to make the running at Aintree, but he got round safely which was the best connections could have hoped for. I think this race is ideal for him because he should be able to front run at a nice gallop and he will keep going over 4m. The only slight concern I have is if he is still good enough to beat something like Law Of Gold, but otherwise I think he has a great chance of hitting the frame at least.   Sugar Baron - The yards 2nd runner and I suspect 2nd string despite the fact Gina is riding him. Ran a huge race at this meeting in 2021 to finish 2nd and then he went on to beat Captain Cattistock at Warwick the following month. Was only seen once in 2022 when falling at Cocklebarrow and in 3 runs this season the evidence suggests he isn't as good as he was at the age of 13.   The Whistle Blower - Pulled up in the Intermediate Final last year and I was really surprised to see him go off at only 9/2 at Carlisle given none of his form gave him a chance of beating the leading horses and the ground was testing. He did bounce back at Hornby on Easter Saturday and he won on the card for the 2nd year running. He beat Black Op which was a bit of a surprise on the face of it. Given that track is a stiff test of stamina you would think 4m would suit, but he ran like a non-stayer over 3m2f last season and he's hard to fancy on the back of the Carlisle effort as well.   Verdict - Shantou Flyer clearly has the class to win, but he didn't have the stamina to this race last year so he is very short in my view. Ideally Law Of Gold will jump better than he did last year, but the fact he still went so close suggests to me that he will go close again even if his jumping isn't foot perfect. We know Just Your Type will stay, but he wouldn't have the class of the other two so would need them to underperform to win however he certainly has place claims. I do think Step Back is over priced though as this race has looked the ideal one for him. I think he can get into a nice rhythm out in front and he will keep battling all the way to the line. The yard has won this race before as well.   8.17 Fix It All - Had shown nothing at all since coming over from France before turning up in a hunter chase at Ludlow last month when a big price at 16/1. He was held up out the back and even turning for home he had a lot of work to do, but he was relentless down the home straight and after the 2nd last I thought he was going to go and win the race. I know that Espoir De Teillee hung after the last, but for me Fix It All would have won anyway and he went on to prove that was no fluke when bolting up over the same course and distance a few days later. This is obviously a very different test, but he is certainly a leading player on those Ludlow efforts.   Not That Fuisse - Heidi Palin gets back on top after Jack Andrews took over at Aintree where he ran a very creditable 7th. Heidi gave him a good ride at Wetherby when beating Moratorium although she got caught out at Taunton when she was stuck behind horses going backwards leaving the back and that was just at the time Izzie Marshall kicked for home on I K Brunel and that won the race. He needs the ground to stay fairly quick and I do think he needs further nowadays, but he might well get away with it at Cheltenham. If he has come out of Aintree fine then he goes on the list of possible winners.   Solomon Grey - Won this race in really good style last year and has an obvious chance this time around. After that win he ran in the big race at Stratford and didn't stay the trip. This season we have only seen him twice. He was well behind Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but the trainers horses always get better as the season goes on. He then injured himself rolling around the field so wasn't seen again until last week in the same Ludlow race he won last year. This time he was a 17L 2nd to Secret Investor, but he ran with great credit before understandably getting a bit tired late on. I still wonder if he is going to be in peak form just 9 days later, but I certainly expect him to come on plenty for that run.   Dogon - Looks like being one of the social runners on the evening as has little chance on form.   Magic Saint - Ran a cracking race on hunter chase debut to push Bennys King to 0.75L at Hereford and he then backed that up with an easy success at Wincanton. He beat Diligent by 13L on that occasion, but was value for more. However it is worth pointing out that Fix It All beat Diligent by 29L at Ludlow and I think Magic Saint essentially had little to beat that day. I thought he might run better at Aintree than he did, but he was beaten 55L and finished 13th in the end. You can always forgive a horse a bad run round the Grand National course though and he has good form over this course and distance so another possible winner for me.   Ballotin - Good hunter chaser for David Maxwell in 2019 and if in that form he would have a chance in this, but he is nowhere near that level at the moment having been beaten in a match, pulled up at Warwick and then a well beaten 3rd back in a point last time.   Count Simon - Had a very good season pointing having won his last 3 points. The last two of those though came in the weak south east area and he finished last at Newbury behind Lift Me Up on his hunter chase debut. Would need to leave that form well behind to have any chance here.   Dickie Diver - 1st time tongue-tie, but I am not expecting that to work the miracle that he needs to win this.   Funky Sensation - Even though he finished 6th at Exeter 2 starts back it wasn't a bad run given I don't think he really stays 3m and he ran like a non-stayer. He won on Saturday at Flete Park where he just held on to win by a head. None of that form anywhere near good enough to win this, but I'd be tempted to go handicapping with him off his mark of 85 and it might go down more after this.   Oistrakh Le Noir - Looked to have the race at his mercy when falling at the last in a point at Ffos Las in November and things haven't really gone his way since. He was stuffed by Viroflay in March and then last time he looked the winner until getting caught very late on. Solid enough horse, but this is a hot race.    Paloma Blue - A more than useful horse under rules when trained by Henry De Bromhead and he was 4th in the 2018 Supreme and 6th in the following year's Arkle. He wasn't a prolific winner though and only won a couple of times over fences. It has been a different story since joining new connections though and he has won 4 of his 7 starts. He clearly still retains a fair level of ability, but I am not sure he has beaten a great deal and there are some good horses in this. Arguably his best run was when he was 2nd to Macklin a horse who has done well this season. I wouldn't want to say he can't win, but I am preferring the proven hunter chase form.   St Barts - Been well beaten in points this season and looks one of the evening's social runners.   What A Moment - Only managed to beat 3 horses home in points this season and this 13yo has no chance.   Verdict - I think the winner will come from Fix It All, Not That Fuisse, Solomon Grey and Magic Saint and the two I will be backing are Fix It All and Solomon Grey. This is a different test from Ludlow for Fix It All, but it is no surprise it has been a target for him and whatever has clicked for him has seen a huge amount of improvement. The way he has finished off his races as well suggest that the hill will suit. I've a slight worry that Solomon Grey might need a little bit longer, but he won this race in great style last year and he will show the benefit of the Ludlow run where he blew up late on behind a good horse. If one of the other two win then clearly it will be no surprise. Paloma Blue is very short in the betting for me. He has the back class, but his pointing form doesn't really excite me and we have 4 horses who have strong hunter chase form so he will have to be running to a good level to win this.

Cheltenham Hunter Chase night is here and as usual I have previewed the whole card with something about every horse running tonight. The bets are at the top for easy access and the previews below that. Hopefully it will be a good and profitable evening and Bradley Gibbs might well end up with a 4-timer.   List of bets 4.50 - Fier Jaguen 5pts @ 4/5 with everyone apart from BetVictor and Coral who are 5/6 (take up to 8/13) 5.25 - Theshoddytradesman 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Hills who are 10/3 (take up to 5/2) & Lift Me Up 0.5pts @ 5/2 with eveyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 11/4 (take up to 2/1) 6.00 - Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 15/8 (take up to 6/4) & Trio For Rio 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Bet365 who are 7/2 (take up to 5/2) 6.35 - Premier Magic to beat Dandy Dan 1pt f/c and Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (365 are 15/2 and take up to 6/1) 7.10 - Highway Jewel 3pts @ 10/11 with everyone (take up to 8/11) & Sine Nomine 0.5pts @ 10/3 with everyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 7/2 and 365 who are 3/1 (take up to 5/2) 7.45 - Law Of Gold 2pts @ 13/8 with everyone apart from Hills who are 7/4 (take up to 6/4) & Step Back 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone (Paddys and Betfair are 4 places and take up to 8/1) 8.17 - Solomon Grey 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 13/2 (take up to 5/1) & Fix It All 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet, Willam Hill, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 3/1)   4.50 Envious Editor - Looked like winning this race last year as he cruised into contention only to then get outbattled by Envoye Special and I never thought I would see a horse get outbattle by him. Landed the first hunter chase of the season by beating Singapore Saga which is decent enough form. He then disappointed at Hereford before running as well as could have been in the Walrus at Haydock when an 18L 2nd to Famous Clermont. After that run he left Joe O'Shea's yard and ran no more than OK at Ludlow when 3rd behind Fix It All and Espoir De Teillee. I wouldn't rule him out totally, but I don't think he has the class of a couple of these and hard not to have his finishing effort last year in the back of your mind.   Caryto Des Brosses - Has been one of the best hunter chasers around when he's not been injured over the years. He was beaten a neck by Hazel Hill on this card in 2019 and then lost out by the same margin in the Stratford Foxhunters to Wonderful Charm. He then only had 1 run in 2020 and 2021, but returned last year in good form and looked the winner on this card last year until Dandy Dan came through with a late run to beat him. This year he returned with a solid win at Southwell, before running below par at Newbury when 5th behind Lift Me Up. I think the ground was the big issue that day though and I'm prepared to look over that effort. He had a perfect prep for this when bolting up at Garthorpe a couple of weeks ago in a quick time. It is interesting they are dropping him back to 2m and he was certainly speedy enough for 2m4f in his younger days and I think he will be fine over it.   Santon - Looks like he doesn't really stay 3m as he was beaten at Garthorpe a couple of times a year ago in Opens and in his last run he was beaten when falling at the last in a 3 runner Ladies Open at Shelfield Park in March. Prior to that though he ran well to finish 2nd to Time Leader and then won over 2m4f back at Leicester the following week. That was a weak race though and he can make mistakes which would be a concern round here. He would need the two leading horses to run below par to have any chance.   Takethepunishment - Another horse who has had his issues over the years as he has only run 17 times and is 13. Made a winning hunter chase debut when landing last year's Buccleuch Cup at Kelso with ease. That wasn't a strong race though and he was only 3rd to Point The Way at Perth following that. Has won both points this season although they backed up my view point that he looks a horse to have plenty of stamina. The race he won last time at Overton took 6m 53s to run and he got himself outpaced between the final 2 fences before staying on to win. So I have a big concern about the trip and I doubt he would be good enough anyway.   Famoso - Ran in this race last year when a well beaten 5th. He has been beaten 6 times in points this season and remains a maiden. He doesn't look to even stay 2m4f so the trip is right, but he will be outclassed again.   Fier Jaguen - Clearly you all know what I think about this horse and he was a bit unfortunate at Aintree as he just pecked on landing at the 7th which is the ditch on the run to Bechers'. Clearly jumping out to his right didn't help, but the fact he was so bold over his fences meant he just pecked and Bradley had little chance of staying on. He seemed to love the experience though as he jumped a fair few of the other fences with the field. I think he would have been 1st or 2nd if he had remained in the race and whilst I am a big fan of Caryto Des Brosses I just don't think he is as good as Fier Jaguen. His 3 pointing performances this year have been so impressive and in the last two the times he clocked were quick and the speed rating he received was very high. I don't have any concerns about the trip for him, because he has such a high cruising speed that he just going to blast off in front and it will be a case of catch me if you can and I don't think they will catch him. I obviously expect he will jump right again, but apart from Caryto Des Brosses is the only horse class who can get near him and I think he will still be more than good enough to win.   Fils Spirtuel - Showed a bit of promise in maiden hurdles in the 19/20 season for Willie Mullins, but he hasn't progressed and has struggled in Restricted's for his new trainer. Does run like he needs 2m, but unlikely to be good enough.   Josh The Plod - Won a couple of times last year in the South East which is pretty much the weakest area when it comes to pointing. Had 3 starts this season and run no more than OK. Makes the running, but that is unlikely to happen here unless he goes really fast and shouldn't be good enough.   Precious Bounty - A solid pointer and his best run so far this season wasn't either of his wins, but his 2nd to Law Of Gold at Garthorpe. That was the only time Gina Andrews has ridden him though which might not be a coincidence. He is another one who tends to make the running as he did at Stratford last time when 3rd behind Sine Nomine, but he is unlikely to be able to do that tonight. I think the trip round here will be OK and whilst he will need the main two to disappoint he has a chance of being best of the rest.   Reweritetherules - Was a 14L 3rd in this race last year, but was in better form then so might not be able to even repeat that effort let alone for 2 places better.    Verdict - To me this is a match race between Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and firm preference is for the former. I have made no secret of how much I think of this horse and whilst he wasn't able to show it at Aintree, I fully expect him to show how good he is here. Most of these won't be able to live with his high cruising speed and for me the only way he gets beat is he fail to get round again. I suspect Dale Peters will sit in behind Fier Jaguen and hope that he can pick him up on the run-in, but I don't think he will be able to. I'd be a little surprised if anything else won but Envious Editor and Precious Bounty would be my picks of the rest.   5.25 All Is True - The Eillis team have won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this so clearly he has to be respected as their chosen runner. He is 3/3 for them this season going through the grades and each time they have bene very complementary about him after the race. He won his maiden and restricted with ease both at Horseheath and then he beat Frisson Collonges by 22L at Garthrope in an Intermediate which is his biggest winning margin. That doesn't tell the full story though because he was in a great battle Lagan Valley until that one decided to run out at the last. I think All Is True had the upper hand at time, but it is good form because Lagan Valley has been in very good form this season and he won next time out. A leading contender.   Bonamargy - Did win his Intermediate last time, but that was his 23rd start and if he is good enough then this race has much less quality than I think it does.   Camdonian - Is 3/3 since going pointing for new connections, but I'm not sure there is a huge substance to his form. He did beat a Tom Eillis horse when winning his maiden at Charm Park, but that horse was well beaten next time and just getting the better of Red Opium last time doesn't scream winner of this to me.   Frisson Collonges - Held by both Lift Me Up and All Is True and an unlikely winner.   Lift Me Up - Luckily for him this is a race which doesn't carry a penalty for winning a hunter chase because he is the only horse which has done just that. I thought there was plenty to like about his Newbury win because he didn't jump very well and he showed greenness when hanging in behind the front running 3rd. Drop Flight was flying home to finish 2nd and he was 2nd at Hexham next time. He clearly is a very promising horse, but his jumping round here in a bigger field would worry me. He is named after Geri Horner's first number 1 solo single and her husband Christian Horner is the other owner with her. He has the best form in the race, but on the other hand he is the only one who has been able to show form like that. Clearly one of the possible winners though.   Pyleigh Court - Chris Barber clearly didn't see much in him as he got rid after just 3 starts, but he has gone on to win 3/4 for his new yard. The only time he was beaten was 1st up this season when beaten 0.5L by Theshoddytradesman. He was getting 5lbs from the winner that day and whilst including jockey claims he gets 4lbs here Bradley is way superior to Ella Herbison. The race he won last time was only a match so told us very little. I think you have to give him some sort of chance given how unexposed he is and how close he got to Theshoddytradesman   Quintin's Man - He clearly wasn't suited to 2m4f when he finished 16L behind Theshoddytradesman and Pyleigh Court at Buckfastleigh in March and he showed that by winning over 3m and 3m4f on his next two starts. Whilst he will get a stamina test here, I do think he wants softer ground. It was a fair run when 2nd at Exeter 2 weeks ago, but this race is much stronger than that one so I suspect he will find this hard enough with the ground not ideal.   Slievegar - Does seem to have improved for the change of yard as he's done pretty well pointing this season, but he has been stuffed in the same Cartmel hunter chase twice and it is hard to see him having improved enough to play a part here.   Tekap - Was 2nd in the Restricted Final at Stratford in 2021, but that was a shocking race and he's struggled on the whole since including being 23L behind All Is True at Garthorpe in March.   The New Kid - Finished 2nd beaten 0.75L by Runwiththetide at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday and the rime was by far the quickest on the card, but that race of 4 was the biggest field out of the 5 races and I wouldn't want to read too much into the time. That was the 3rd time he has finished 2nd this season and he pulled up the other time.   Theshoddytradesman - Is 4/4 since coming to the UK and interestingly given this race is 3m2f, 3 of those victories were over 2m4f. He was really impressive over Christmas at Chaddesley Corbett when bolting up by 30L and it was the same card Premier Magic and Fier Jaguen won on as well. He stepped up to 3m next time at Chipley and won by an eased down 30L again. I think this was probably his most impressive performance and he certainly wasn't stopping. His winning time was 10 seconds quicker that Quintin's Man in the following race. Last time he had to work much harder for his success at Buckfastleigh back over 2m4f and only beat Pyleigh Court by 0.5L. His jumping wasn't as good as it can be and I just wonder if he wasn't quite at his best. He always looked like he would always hold on though and the 2-month break isn't going to have done him any harm at all. He is the biggest price of the Gibbs 4, but he still has a massive chance.   Red Opium - Does seem to have improved of late despite only winning 3 of her 16 starts pointing and hasn't been out of the first 2 in her last 5 starts including when winning at Overton on Saturday. He was a 3.5L 2nd to Cambonian in a race where they were the only 2 finishes. The time was decent and he will certainly stay as that race measured as 3m2f and he ran like needed 4m. Jockey change a plus, but whilst he is better than his official rating of 71 I would be surprised if he was good enough to take this.   Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. Nothing overly impressive and at Thorpe Lodge she was beating The New Kid by 0.75L. I always respect the trainers runners and I suspect she would be very well handicapped off a mark of 94, but I'm not sure she is as good as some of these.   Vedict - I am not sure there is as much depth to this race as the numbers suggest and for me the front 3 in the betting are the most like winners. I've had Theshoddytradesman lined up for this since he won at Chaddesley Corbett and whilst he has to go and prove he will stay I think he will. I suspect he wasn't quite at his best the last time and 2 months off will have done him good. All Is True is sure to give it a good go for the Ellis team, but I will save on Lift Me Up. I do have concerns about him jumping wise, but that was only his 5th start and every chance he would have learnt plenty from that experience and you would like to think his jumping and his greenness will be better tonight. Out of the bigger prices I am wary of Runwiththetide from a trainer perspective more than form, but Pyleigh Court could well have been slightly under estimated by the market.   6.00 Bloodstone - Finished 2nd in 3 Restricted's on the bounce before easily winning one at Lockinge. Even so that form is below what will be required to win this.   Bobby Bow - Was missing for 21 months before a decent enough 2nd in the mud at Ffos Las off 106 in a handicap in January. Wasn't anywhere near as good next time though at Ayr and he was a well beaten 3rd of 3 on his pointing debut at Chaddesley last month. Not a total no hoper on the Ffos Las form, but hard to fancy on what he's done since plus the trip might stretch him.   Fairly Famous - Showed the odd glimmer of promise in 4 starts for Olly Murphy, but has really found his form since joining current connections and has won 4/4. He is clearly progressive and this is usually the weakest race on the card, but when you look at the SPs of the last 3 wins (1/2, 1/4 and 1/7) you realise he hasn't beaten an awful lot. Hard to really put a handle on how good he is because of the weakness of the races he's won and I would rather have seen more substance to the form before backing him.   Hidden Charmer - Was a 15L 3rd in this race last year and hard to see where the improvement is going to come to go 2 places better. Has run OK this season, but did go from being beaten a length by Forest Chimes to being beaten 13L by him last time.   Let Me Entertain U - Nothing of the quality of the other two opponents he faced at Taunton last time, but he was well behind from a long way before pulling up and hard to have any confidence about him.   Marcle Ridge - On his day has been a more than useful hunter chaser and pointer and took this race in very easy fashion back in 2019. In 2020 he ran a huge race from the front when finishing 6th in the race that was still known as the Foxhunter then. In 2021 he was a bit disappointing at Warwick and very disappointing at Worcester, but inbetween those two efforts he won the 2m5f race on this card. Last season he started the campaign by beating Famous Clermont at Barbury which even though he has improved since then was still a hell of an effort. He then went and disappointed a bit at Hereford. Maybe he wasn't quite right that day, and he has certainly been a hard horse to keep sound, because he wasn't seen again until this March when he won a Mixed Open with ease at Howick. No doubting that he has the best form in the race and if it is one of his better days then he will be hard to beat.   Moratorium - Thought he had this race won last year until Trio For Rio came and mugged him late on. The 2nd to Not That Fuisse was decent at Wetherby and then he won at Alnwick. Not surprisingly found the Cheltenham Festival too tough, but he ran really poorly at Exeter after that. To be fair that came soon enough and he is better than he showed there and I'm sure he will put up a better showing.   Trio For Rio - Has won this race for the last 2 years. In 2021 he was all out to just hold on and then as I mention above he got up on the run-in to beat Moratorium by a length. He came into that race on the back of a pulled-up effort and he's not coming into this in great form either. He's been outpaced in his last two races when a 17L 2nd and a 5.25L 4th last time. I suspect though his season has been all about landing the hat-trick in this and you couldn't rule him out from landing it.   Verdict - If Fairly Famous did go and win then fair enough, but there isn't much substance to those 1's for me so I think the winner will come from the bottom 3 on the race card. Marcle Ridge has the best form and I would imagine this has been the target for him so he is the main bet. I will also cover Trio For Rio as you obviously can't knock his form in this race.   6.35 Dandy Dan - Great performance to win this race last year under a good ride from Laureen and the 3rd in the Stratford Foxhunters was good as well considering she got caught out a bit round the sharper track. This season he was behind Law Of Gold again on his return at Garthorpe in February where he looked in need of the race in the parade ring before the race. I put him up as a big price outsider at The Festival when James King took over in the saddle, but he struggled to get involved in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. As long as the ground doesn't get too soft here he looks the one most likely to take advantage if Premier Magic under performs.   Myth Buster - Made Premier Magic work hard to win at Chaddesley Corbett in December when beaten 3.5L in the end. There was 5lbs difference in the weights that day and there is 4lbs difference today so fair to say that form shouldn't be reversed and he was well behind him at The Festival when unseating at the 2nd last. He has won over 4m this season and was entered in the 4m race tonight, but connections have opted to run Step Back in that (the right choice I hope). I can see him running well enough, but not sure he is good enough to win even if Premier Magic runs below par.   Poludora - Was 30L behind Myth Buster in February and that pretty much sums up his chances here.   Premier Magic - The Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase is working out very well form wise. Its On The Line won at Punchestown last week, Shantou Flyer won at Exeter, Rocky's Howya has been focusing on pointing, Chris's Dream was running a huge race until falling at Punchestown, Famous Clermont won at Aintree and Vaucelet was 2nd at Punchestown. It was a massive shame that Premier Magic couldn't run at Punchestown last week, but seemingly he has this race at his mercy. The only thing that worries me is his trainer mentioned that he is a bad traveller so had sent him to Ireland early to settle in and clearly a trip to Ireland and back for no reason is hardly ideal. Apart from that though he should be hard to beat and on form he wouldn't even need to be at his best to win.   Encounter A Giant - Was well behind Premier Magic and Myth Buster at Chaddesley over Christmas, but has got his act together in his last two starts winning a Mixed Open at Bangor and then landing the Lady Dudley Cup back at Chaddesley last month. That suggests to me he is in much better form than when he last raced against Premier Magic and Myth Buster and whilst he wont beat an on song Premier Magic he can run well.   Rebel Dawn Rising - Not had any luck under rules so far this season as he was brought down at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and then he decided to jink right at the last back there on Easter Monday and unseat his jockey over the last when the race was won. He didn't really seem to stay when he pulled up in the Intermediate Final on this card last year and ended up pulling up. Maybe something came to light that day as they are prepared to give the course and distance another go. I think he's got a fair bit of ability though so if he does stay a top 3 finish wouldn't surprise.   Trappist Monk - Landed a very weak hunter chase at Fontwell with ease back in March and has since had a walk over and a win at Parham. That along with a win at Charing means he has won 4 on the bounce, but it would be a big surprise if he made it 5 here.   Verdict - This is Premier Magic's race to lose and the only way I can see him getting beaten is if the wasted trip to Ireland has left a mark. If he's in his usual form then it's his race to lose. Dandy Dan is clear 2nd best for me though and I am surprised he's not 2nd favourite so I will back him in the forecast and have a small e/w bet on him.   7.10 Sine Nomine - Jumped terribly when 3rd in the Intermediate Final last year, but clearly based on her Stratford win that has been fixed. She was very well backed ahead of that contest and the money was spot on as she travelled really well throughout the race. Her jumping was spot on and she always looked the most likely winner. I do think the soft ground helped because I think she is the only one who handled it, but given the ease of her success I suspect she would have won anyway. If she brings that jumping performance to this race then she has a leading chance.   Singapore Saga - A likeable mare who ran really well behind Envious Editor in the first hunter chase of the season. She won her next two points and took advantage of Highway Jewel's fall at the 2nd to win the first of those. She then went on to win at Exeter where she outstayed Viroflay and then Darren Andrews did all he could to try and beat Shantou Flyer over the same course and distance last month, but in the end she was outclassed. Went back pointing a couple of weeks ago and toughed it out to win a Mixed Open. Bare form of that race is nothing special, but clearly has a leading chance in this.   Highway Jewel - Was due to run in the Festival Hunter Chase the last 3 years, but in 2021 they forgot to enter her, she was injured last year and then this year they decided to skip the race after she fell at Chipley Park on her reappearance. Clearly that worked out well for the trainer given he won the race anyway, but it also proves how good they think she is. I thought she would have had a right chance in 2021 after she had hammered Hazel Hill in a point that season and she then finished a close 2nd to Latenightpass in a hot hunter chase at Warwick. That year she landed this race and bizarrely she jumped terribly and to her right given she had jumped so well on the whole at Warwick. That has to be in the back of your mind slightly. She had no trouble beating Singapore Saga in her only start last year and was 1/3 to beat her again when she fell. She went to Lydstep on Easter Monday and she made all to win with ease in a quick time. I think she would have been able to win both the races that Sine Nomine and Singapore Saga have won this season and for me she is the best of the 3 runners. They also have to give her weight as she doesn't have a penalty anymore.   Kalabaloo - A former winner of this race 2019, but was put in her place by Feuille De Lune last season and she isn't as good as she was back then. Did win last time out at Charm Park, but would be a surprise if she was able to land this.   Miss Seagreen - Was beaten 30L by Highway Jewel when 3rd in this 2 years ago and her running style suggests she might have been better off in the 4m race. She was ridden by an inexperienced jockey first time out when a staying on 3rd at Larkhill to I K Brunel, but it was a similar story at the same venue in February when ridden by tonight's rider. It happened again at Maisemore last month when 2nd to Another Venture and given she was staying on in this race in 2021 it seems she finds things happening a bit too quick for her over even this trip.   Tangoed - Total no hoper in this contest.   Verdict - I respect Singapore Saga and Sine Nomine's chances and would favour the Stratford winner over the Exeter winner. Highway Jewel has already beaten Singapore Saga and whilst she might have improved a little, I still think Highway Jewel is the better horse. Granted she will more than likely have to jump better than she did when she won this race 2 years ago, but that would appear to be an anomaly so I am happy enough to think she won't repeat that tonight.    7.45 Go Whatever - Clearly stays well as he landed the Sussex National last January, but he pulled up on his hunter chase debut behind Shantou Flyer at Exeter last month and whilst he might have needed it is going to take him to come forward a hell of a lot to get competitive in this.   Shantou Flyer - Has had a hell of a season given he is now 13. Managed to beat Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett in December and then was 2nd to Famous Clermont at Wincanton. He then reversed that form by flying up the hill to finish 3rd to Premier Magic at The Festival to improve his fantastic record in that race. After that he won easily beating Singapore Saga last time at Exeter. Clearly quality wise he is one of the best horses in the race, but my concern is that he failed to stay in this race last year. He had only had one start that season 2 months prior so maybe he wasn't at peak fitness, but I am a little surprised they haven't decided to have another crack at Premier Magic instead of running in this.   Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well to finish 3rd to Dandy Dan in the feature race last year and managed to win a 3 runner handicap at Newton Abbot in August. Returned this season with a staying on 2nd over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow in January to Just Your Type and then the following month again ran like a stayer over 3m when winning at Badbury Rings. Might not be quite good enough to win, but ought to be staying on when some of these have cried enough and a place showing can't be ruled out.   Law Of Gold - I still don't know how he finished 2nd in this race last year. He jumped terribly and I would go as far to say I have never seen a horse jump so badly, especially round Cheltenham, and still go so close to winning. Indeed, he looked like the winner throughout the home straight and fair play to the winner for finding plenty to hold him off. He had issues with his jumping ran he ran at The Festival in the past as well so you couldn't be certain he will show an improved round of jumping tonight, but it could hardly be any worse. After that he finished a very good 2nd to Vaucelet at Stratford. This season he has been seen just twice at Garthorpe and given he tends to need his first race there was certainly no shame in finishing a 14L 2nd to Premier Magic. He went back 3 weeks later and beat Precious Bounty in decent enough style. This and Stratford must be his two main targets and he gets round safely he is likely to go very close.   Another Venture - Not sure he's ever been a horse who has struck me as needing 4m to be seen at his best and he has been well beaten in most of his hunter chase efforts to date albeit against some useful horses. Did win at Maisemore last time which was a decent enough effort, but has a lot of ground to make up on Shantou Flyer based on the Wincanton run.   Desire De Joie - I must admit he is a tricky horse to weigh up for me. He wouldn't be out of this on his 2nd to Dolphin Square at Doncaster last season as he ran a hell of a race to be beaten a short head. He then was outclassed at The Festival behind Billaway and I suspect he wasn't at his best when last of 3 at Thorpe Lodge over Easter. He wasn't seen again until that same race last month and he was last again although he travelled well until tiring late on. The yard do very well with the horses they send hunter chasing so I am wary about him.   Just Your Type - Clearly a horse who is all about stamina given his exploits under rules when with Charlie Longsdon and he has shown it again in points this season winning over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow and then landing the Grimthorpe Gold Cup over 4m1f at Sheriff Hutton a month ago. This race is clearly going to be tougher than either of those, but the fact he's a proven stayer ought to see him go well.   Kilbrew Boy - Only rated 88 under rules and likely to be outclassed here.   Port Of Mars - Was well beaten at Stratford by Sine Nomine last time and whilst this will be a very different test I don't think he will be troubling the main contenders.   Potters Approach - Beaten 60L in a point 2 weeks ago and that sums up his chance.   Step Back - I have been keen to see him run in this race for most of this season so am very pleased to see him turn up. He is an out and out stayer who likes to front run and it was only a year ago he ran a creditable 4th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown to Hewick. This season he ran well in a couple of handicaps before not running his race at all at Wincanton on hunter chase debut. He then went to Taunton and made the running before finding himself outpaced turning for him. He stayed on again though and ended up getting 4th beaten 15L by I K Brunel. 3m round their on quick ground would not have been ideal and he then went to Carlisle over 3m in heavy ground and he ran his best race of the season and only just being beaten by Billy Bronco who thrives in such conditions. I certainly wouldn't rubbish the form because the winner was well beaten at Hexham last time because the ground wasn't soft enough for him that day. He was never going to make the running at Aintree, but he got round safely which was the best connections could have hoped for. I think this race is ideal for him because he should be able to front run at a nice gallop and he will keep going over 4m. The only slight concern I have is if he is still good enough to beat something like Law Of Gold, but otherwise I think he has a great chance of hitting the frame at least.   Sugar Baron - The yards 2nd runner and I suspect 2nd string despite the fact Gina is riding him. Ran a huge race at this meeting in 2021 to finish 2nd and then he went on to beat Captain Cattistock at Warwick the following month. Was only seen once in 2022 when falling at Cocklebarrow and in 3 runs this season the evidence suggests he isn't as good as he was at the age of 13.   The Whistle Blower - Pulled up in the Intermediate Final last year and I was really surprised to see him go off at only 9/2 at Carlisle given none of his form gave him a chance of beating the leading horses and the ground was testing. He did bounce back at Hornby on Easter Saturday and he won on the card for the 2nd year running. He beat Black Op which was a bit of a surprise on the face of it. Given that track is a stiff test of stamina you would think 4m would suit, but he ran like a non-stayer over 3m2f last season and he's hard to fancy on the back of the Carlisle effort as well.   Verdict - Shantou Flyer clearly has the class to win, but he didn't have the stamina to this race last year so he is very short in my view. Ideally Law Of Gold will jump better than he did last year, but the fact he still went so close suggests to me that he will go close again even if his jumping isn't foot perfect. We know Just Your Type will stay, but he wouldn't have the class of the other two so would need them to underperform to win however he certainly has place claims. I do think Step Back is over priced though as this race has looked the ideal one for him. I think he can get into a nice rhythm out in front and he will keep battling all the way to the line. The yard has won this race before as well.   8.17 Fix It All - Had shown nothing at all since coming over from France before turning up in a hunter chase at Ludlow last month when a big price at 16/1. He was held up out the back and even turning for home he had a lot of work to do, but he was relentless down the home straight and after the 2nd last I thought he was going to go and win the race. I know that Espoir De Teillee hung after the last, but for me Fix It All would have won anyway and he went on to prove that was no fluke when bolting up over the same course and distance a few days later. This is obviously a very different test, but he is certainly a leading player on those Ludlow efforts.   Not That Fuisse - Heidi Palin gets back on top after Jack Andrews took over at Aintree where he ran a very creditable 7th. Heidi gave him a good ride at Wetherby when beating Moratorium although she got caught out at Taunton when she was stuck behind horses going backwards leaving the back and that was just at the time Izzie Marshall kicked for home on I K Brunel and that won the race. He needs the ground to stay fairly quick and I do think he needs further nowadays, but he might well get away with it at Cheltenham. If he has come out of Aintree fine then he goes on the list of possible winners.   Solomon Grey - Won this race in really good style last year and has an obvious chance this time around. After that win he ran in the big race at Stratford and didn't stay the trip. This season we have only seen him twice. He was well behind Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but the trainers horses always get better as the season goes on. He then injured himself rolling around the field so wasn't seen again until last week in the same Ludlow race he won last year. This time he was a 17L 2nd to Secret Investor, but he ran with great credit before understandably getting a bit tired late on. I still wonder if he is going to be in peak form just 9 days later, but I certainly expect him to come on plenty for that run.   Dogon - Looks like being one of the social runners on the evening as has little chance on form.   Magic Saint - Ran a cracking race on hunter chase debut to push Bennys King to 0.75L at Hereford and he then backed that up with an easy success at Wincanton. He beat Diligent by 13L on that occasion, but was value for more. However it is worth pointing out that Fix It All beat Diligent by 29L at Ludlow and I think Magic Saint essentially had little to beat that day. I thought he might run better at Aintree than he did, but he was beaten 55L and finished 13th in the end. You can always forgive a horse a bad run round the Grand National course though and he has good form over this course and distance so another possible winner for me.   Ballotin - Good hunter chaser for David Maxwell in 2019 and if in that form he would have a chance in this, but he is nowhere near that level at the moment having been beaten in a match, pulled up at Warwick and then a well beaten 3rd back in a point last time.   Count Simon - Had a very good season pointing having won his last 3 points. The last two of those though came in the weak south east area and he finished last at Newbury behind Lift Me Up on his hunter chase debut. Would need to leave that form well behind to have any chance here.   Dickie Diver - 1st time tongue-tie, but I am not expecting that to work the miracle that he needs to win this.   Funky Sensation - Even though he finished 6th at Exeter 2 starts back it wasn't a bad run given I don't think he really stays 3m and he ran like a non-stayer. He won on Saturday at Flete Park where he just held on to win by a head. None of that form anywhere near good enough to win this, but I'd be tempted to go handicapping with him off his mark of 85 and it might go down more after this.   Oistrakh Le Noir - Looked to have the race at his mercy when falling at the last in a point at Ffos Las in November and things haven't really gone his way since. He was stuffed by Viroflay in March and then last time he looked the winner until getting caught very late on. Solid enough horse, but this is a hot race.    Paloma Blue - A more than useful horse under rules when trained by Henry De Bromhead and he was 4th in the 2018 Supreme and 6th in the following year's Arkle. He wasn't a prolific winner though and only won a couple of times over fences. It has been a different story since joining new connections though and he has won 4 of his 7 starts. He clearly still retains a fair level of ability, but I am not sure he has beaten a great deal and there are some good horses in this. Arguably his best run was when he was 2nd to Macklin a horse who has done well this season. I wouldn't want to say he can't win, but I am preferring the proven hunter chase form.   St Barts - Been well beaten in points this season and looks one of the evening's social runners.   What A Moment - Only managed to beat 3 horses home in points this season and this 13yo has no chance.   Verdict - I think the winner will come from Fix It All, Not That Fuisse, Solomon Grey and Magic Saint and the two I will be backing are Fix It All and Solomon Grey. This is a different test from Ludlow for Fix It All, but it is no surprise it has been a target for him and whatever has clicked for him has seen a huge amount of improvement. The way he has finished off his races as well suggest that the hill will suit. I've a slight worry that Solomon Grey might need a little bit longer, but he won this race in great style last year and he will show the benefit of the Ludlow run where he blew up late on behind a good horse. If one of the other two win then clearly it will be no surprise. Paloma Blue is very short in the betting for me. He has the back class, but his pointing form doesn't really excite me and we have 4 horses who have strong hunter chase form so he will have to be running to a good level to win this.

It looks like they have different rates for different countries based on the rules and regulations of each particular country.

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.
Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.
Race 1
Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 
Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 
Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 
Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.
I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.
Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill
Race 7
The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.
Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.
Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.
Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.
Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.
Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.
Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.
Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.
Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.
Race 1
Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 
Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 
Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 
Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.
I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.
Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill
Race 7
The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.
Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.
Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.
Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.
Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.
Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.
Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.
Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

Day 1 was good and Day 2 was even better with both Tolemac and Saunter Boy winning and Under The Bridge even finished 2nd to his stablemate.
Onto the final day of the Carnival and after the very wet and windy weather on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning we are looking at very testing conditions and the 5500m of the Grand Annual is really going to take some getting. The other jumps race on the card is the Champion Novice which gets the meeting underway.
Race 1
Not surprisingly Nelson heads the betting for the Champion Novice having won both hurdles starts to date. Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He then went to Pakenham last month and I tried to take him on because I was slightly worried about him on a Heavy 10, but he went through the ground absolutely fine and was a pretty impressive winner. 
Port Guillaume is an Ex French horse and until he won over hurdles at Ballarat last August his previous win was in a G2 at Deauville in August 2020 and that came on the back of him finishing 5th in the French Derby. It hasn't quite gone his way on the level in Oz, but he did it well at Ballarat and had Furioso in behind in 3rd. I thought his form on heavy ground might give him the advantage at Pakenham over Nelson, but he was only fair in being beaten 7L into 3rd. He didn't exactly look like he would be reversing the form anytime soon although you would imagine he will strip fitter again. 
Sky Hero is in single figures and won over course and distance in a Heavy 10 last June and got his 2nd win in April at Hamilton. As much as he's a solid enough horse he doesn't look to have the quality of Nelson. Cotton Eye Joe was also a winner at Hamilton of a maiden, but that form doesn't look as strong as Nelson's for me. 
Pure Deal (now a non runner) has to be mentioned as he landed the first race on day 1 and whilst I thought Pateman rode King's Charisma too confidently and that he might well have won if he hadn't, you can't knock the performance of Pure Deal and he built on his 3rd at Pakenham. This will be a tough test just 2 days later though with the ground much worse. What I don't understand is why the horse who beat him at Pakenham, Circle The Sun, is so much bigger in the betting. Teofilo Star bolted up in the 2nd division of the maiden to add to Pure Deal's win so the form of the Pakenham race looks rock solid. I do think he was racing on the better ground which helped, but clearly he looks overs here.
I do think Nelson is going to be hard to beat and he is the main bet, but I can't help but have a small e/w play on Circle The Sun because I would have him shorter in the betting than he is.
Nelson 2pts @ 11/10 with William Hill
Circle The Sun 0.5pts e/w @ 10/1 with William Hill
Race 7
The big race of the week is the Grand Annual and it sees the most impressive horse I have seen since focusing on Aussie jumps racing Stern Idol bid to win his first big one. He came over from France and looked some horse in winning his first two hurdles in Oz by 27L and 15L. He then went to Ballarat and was actually beaten by Bell Ex One who had finished 3rd at last year's Cheltenham Festival. Sadly Bell Ex One hasn't run at Warrnambool as I can't wait to see him back over hurdles, but Stern Idol has since gone over fences. He looked some jumper of a fence in his trials and he backed that up at Pakenham last month when beating a few of today's rivals with ease. The only question you can have over him is the trip as we just don't know if he will see out the 5500m distance. He didn't seem quite as keen as was last season at Pakenham which will help him, but if he stays he will win.
Vanguard ran was the winner of the Brierly last year when just getting the better of this year's winner and his stablemate Britannicus. That looked a great prep run for this race, but he was very unfortunate to slip up less than half way during the race. He was injured in the fall as well so wasn't seen again until this year where he had some trials and a flat run leading into finishing 4th at Pakenham. He has been trained with this race in mind though and he won a trial a few days later. His trainer skipped the Brierly with him this year to focus on this race and it would not surprise me to see him run much better than he did at Pakenham.
Crosshill was trained by Jessica Harrington in Ireland and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. He beat Grand National 2nd Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia and it was this race they had in mind. He had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus prior to finishing 3rd at Pakenham behind Stern Idol. I thought he was given a very quiet ride that day and he was never going to give a horse like Stern Idol that much ground and beat him. He should be spot on for today and whilst the trip in the ground is an unknown he has plenty of class.
Police Camp deserves a mention as he ran so well to finish 2nd in this last year. He ran pretty well in the Brierly and whilst he might not be good enough to win if he did hit the frame it wouldn't be a surprise.
Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. I was massively worried about the testing ground for him when making his Aussie jumps debut at Pakenham last month because he had been a non runner when the ground had turned soft over here and connections had been keen to keep him to good ground. I thought he came up a bit short in the ground at Pakenham when 3rd to Hurry Cane and with it likely to be even more testing here that has to be a big concern.
Speaking of Hurry Cane he is the last one worth a mention. This ex New Zealand runner has been aimed at this race and I wasn't surprised he came on plenty for his hurdle run at Hamilton when beating Epizeel and Rockstar Ronnie at Pakenham. He looks like he will stay and a heavy track isn't an issue at all. He looks a player in this.
Stern Idol could win this and prove himself to be the best chaser in the country, but whilst we have an unknown about the trip I don't see any value in backing him at very short odds. Therefore I will back a couple e/w to try and hit the places at least. Vanguard shouldn't be double figures for me because he looks all about stamina and the fact he won the Brierly last year proves he loves this track. Clearly very unlucky in this race 2 days later I think he can is going to come forward for the Pakenham run as this has been his target race. Crosshill is also double figures and I can't let him go unbacked either. His Irish form is good enough to make him a leading player in Oz and his run last time looked to be all about giving him a nice prep for this. Maybe it is futile trying to get Stern Idol beat and if he does win then I will certainly be saluting a champion.
Crosshill 1pt e/w @ 20/1 with William Hill
Vanguard 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with William Hill and Bet365

A cracking 1st day with 3 of the 4 winners and I felt that if the horse in the 1st had been given a better ride he would have won as well. Day 2 sees a very competitive BM120 Chase and the feature hurdle of the week the Galleywood.   Race 4 I don't think I have seen a BM120 have a maximum field since I started betting on Aussie jumps racing so this feels a bit unusual for me. Tolemac has been very well backed in the early markets as he makes his chasing debut. He was fairly consistent over hurdles last season just winning the once at Hamilton on a Heavy 10 track so we know he will handle the ground. He's had a couple of solid runs on the flat for fitness and he jumped like a pro in his trial here a few days ago. I suspect he has been lined up for this given connections. His train has a strong hand though and Count Zero is next in the betting. He took the opening chase of the season at Terang when I took him on because I didn't like how he jumped in his trials, but he still just about managed to beat So Belafonte. He jumped terribly again to start with in the trial here last month behind Roland Garros, but he did improve as the trial went on. I suspect he will need to improve on that to take this especially off top weight. Speaking of Roland Garros he is also near the head of the market. He won on his chasing debut at Coleraine last August when going well clear and just holding on. It will be interesting to see if similar tactics are used here as I just wonder if he will see the trip out in this ground if he does. He disappointed a couple of weeks after that win when pulling up at Ballarat.    Under The Bridge is the 3rd Wilde runner and I fancied him to win at Hamilton on his chasing return, but in the end he failed to see the race out well enough have travelled nicely into contention having been held up out the back. He should come on for that and he has won here on a Heavy 10 surface as well. I think he has the form to go well in this as well. Lord Pierro looks the other one to consider and he was even more impressive at his fences than Tolemac in the same trial here a couple of weeks ago. The problem is Tolmac did have more speed for him on the flat and I do wonder if he is going to have the ability at this stage to win a race like this. He's only 5 and only had 10 races and the testing ground is an unknown as well, but his jumping will likely take him a long way.   I'd be a bit surprised if anything else was able to win. The money for Tolemac is really interesting and I loved the way he trialed so I will have him as the main bet. I will also cover his stablemate Under The Bridge who should come on for the 2nd at Hamilton and at least we know conditions and track will hold no fear for him.   Tolemac 1pt @ 3/1 with Bet365 Under The Bridge 0.5pts @ 6/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 6 Saunter Boy won all 5 hurdle races he ran in last season including just getting up to win this contest. I thought he would cope with giving a huge amount of weight away to his rivals at Pakenham last month, but he couldn't quite see off Blandford Lad on the run to the line. Given this isn't a handicap he doesn't have to give anywhere near as much weight away to the 6 of the horses who ran that day and are also running in this. Based on that he really ought to have the beating of them. He is odds on, but he deserves to be odds on and I think he is still value at the current odds.   Saunter Boy 3pts @ 17/20 with Bet365

Thanks for that Darran, could only get a bet on with Britannicus but a nice 6/1 winner !

Really looking forward to the next 3 days of action at Warrnambool and the jumping action looks full of quality which is great to see. Tomorrow sees 3 divisions of the maiden hurdle and the feature is the Brierly which looks a high class and open renewal.   Race 1   King's Charisma was trained by David O'Meara in this country and was a useful handicapper as well. Current connections paid £170k for him and whilst he's been running OK they would probably be a little disappointed that all he's done is win a Horsham Cup whilst in Oz. He's had 3 hurdle trials which have been fairly quiet, but he jumps well enough and flat wise he is the best of these. Vividredsky was 2nd in a BM70 at Moonee Valley in February so also has a fair level of ability, but he hasn't won for over 800 days. He didn't run very well on the flat last time, but did win a hurdles trial prior to that. His jumping wasn't great to start with, but he did warm to the task. Pure Deal was 3rd on hurdles debut last time at Pakenham and it was a solid enough run, but I do sense that King's Charisma would have been good enough to win that maiden. Summerhill looks a big price as he was better at Pakenham on his 2nd hurdles start when 3rd in the other maiden.   King's Charisma's connections will be hoping for a strong carnival and I think he can get them off to a get start given his flat class and I saw enough in his trials to think he is good enough to win this.   King's Charisma 1pt @ 5/2 with Paddy Power and Betfred   Race 2 Teofilo Star is the favourite here on the back of a very good hurdles debut at Pakenham. Not sure this race is any stronger than that and with him racing in the worst part of the track down the home straight he was probably a bit unlucky not to have won. Maher & Eustace have a couple in this and Reserve Street is the more fancied one in the market. He's solid enough on the flat and runs in a lot of the Cups at the Country tracks. I wasn't a fan of his jumping though in his last trial recently and that puts me off here. Aquileon is the other one from the stable and he had 4 starts for Roger Varian in 2020 without success. He's won 3 races in Oz and I did prefer his trial to his stablemates. Half Mast is interesting as he is a rare horse who has never run in a race before going jumping. His trial wasn't bad last time so he might be OK. Killourney managed a couple of placings in maiden hurdles last year and might be capable of better this time around.    He is quite short, but Teofilo Star does look the most likely winner for me with him being a bit unfortunate not to win at Pakenham. I don't think this race is any stronger so will take him to go one better.   Teofilo Star 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill and Coral   Race 3 Impulsar has been the big talking horse ahead of this as Eustace put it up as a horse to follow on Saturday. There was plenty to like in his hurdles trial at Terang as he jumped well on the whole and wasn't extended at all as he allowed the winner to go past him. He did start life in Ireland with Joseph O'Brian and won on his 2nd start just 12 days after making his debut in October 2021. He went to Australia after that and has done well winning another 3 races in just 6 starts. He's by Frankel and he could turn into a top jumper. His stablemate Carisbrook might be the main danger as he has looked good in his trials, but clearly connections think Impulsar is the one to be with and I think he is going to be hard to beat.   Impulsar 2pts @ Evs with Paddy Power, Betfair, William Hill and Coral   Race 6 The feature race on day 1 is the Brierly and it is a cracking line up. Flying Agent has a cracking record over course and distance as he is 3/4 and he has a great record on a heavy track should they get lots of rain. He landed the Thackeray Chase here last July in really good style. He went on to win the Crisp Steeplechase at Sandown the following month and had Valac back in 3rd. After that he was beaten just 0.85L into 3rd in the Grand National Chase at Ballarat. He has had a great prep run on the flat at Bendigo early this month and he then put in a very impressive trial here on April 21st. He has a big chance.   Inayforhay has only had one start over fences, but that was a win in the 2021 Grand National Chase so it was an impressive one. He then missed the whole of 2022 jumps wise and didn't return until November. He won at Bendigo in December and then he had another spell for 14 weeks. His flat run last month at Stawell looked a perfect prep for going back over fences, but I do wonder if he will need further. Even so he is still a possible winner here.   Like Inayforhay, St Arnicca took last season's Grand National Chase on his chasing debut. He had shown good hurdling form prior to that having finished 2nd in the Grand National Hurdle. He's not shown a great deal so far on the flat this prep and was just fair in a trial on April 21st. Again, another with a chance, but he might need further.   Riding High has a very good jumps record winning 5 times for 11 starts and won on his last start over fences which came at Pakenham last April. Obviously injured after that and has had 4 flat starts plus a couple of trials this year to prepare for this. Another one with a chance, but I just wonder if he will be quite good enough.   Bee Tee Junior is a gallant old timer who ran well behind Stern Idol at Pakenham last time. I can see him running well, but I would be a little surprised if he was quite good enough.   Britannicus ran a huge race in this last year and it was a great battle between him and Vanguard who just got up in the final few yards to beat his stablemate. He build up a big lead and he didn't handle the bend well after the Tozer Road crossing which probably cost him. He won the Australian Chase after that, but then finished lame after the Thackeray so was spelled. He has had a couple of flat runs and a few trials as a prep for this and his last trial here was very good last the other day. I don't think he wants it very wet, but otherwise he has a good chance.   Valac is favourite at the time of writing and he was bang in contention in this race last year when falling at out. He then fell again at Sale, but finally won again at Pakenham in testing ground. He was 3rd behind Flying Agent in the Crisp and then 4th in the Grand National Steeplechase. I suspect he didn't quite stay in those two races and this trip is much more suitable. Sure to go close again if his jumping holds up, but I'm not sure I would have him as favourite.   We saw a fantastic race last year and this looks a wide open and classy affair. I am going to go with Flying Agent to win as he has a great record here and looks to have returned in great form based on his flat run and his trial. I would make him favourite myself. All the horses I have named above have some sort of chance, but I will cover Britannicus as well. It was a huge run in this last year and as long as the going doesn't get too testing I think he will be primed to run a big race.   Flying Agent 1pt @ 11/4 with William Hill Britannicus 0.5pts @ 6/1 with most bookies

A very dramatic afternoon. Given we should have been in them with ease to then do it in the way we did was just incredible. As for Kiddie it is amazing as well given how poor you have been for most of the season. It sums the league up though because so many of the sides that were in play-off contention today have been pretty bad for a lengthy spell at one time or another. Whatever happens though I am just delighted we are in them.

Well done, Darran👍.
Hard to believe that both Gloucester and Kidderminster have made the play-offs😲 .

If fylde do the business today you're on for a big payout!
Fingers crossed 

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2nd Its On The Line, 5th Chris's Dream, 7th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2nd and 1st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really.    Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him.    Its On The Line flew home to finish 2nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.   I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.   Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.   I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.   Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2nd Its On The Line, 5th Chris's Dream, 7th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2nd and 1st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really.    Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him.    Its On The Line flew home to finish 2nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.   I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.   Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.   I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.   Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2nd Its On The Line, 5th Chris's Dream, 7th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2nd and 1st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really.    Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him.    Its On The Line flew home to finish 2nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.   I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.   Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.   I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.   Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2nd Its On The Line, 5th Chris's Dream, 7th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2nd and 1st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really.    Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him.    Its On The Line flew home to finish 2nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.   I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.   Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.   I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.   Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

I rarely tip in Irish hunter chases, but we have the big one at Punchestown this evening and after the shambles of Premier Magic and Shantou Flyer not being allowed to run, we have an all-Irish affair. We have 4 runners from Cheltenham with the 2nd Its On The Line, 5th Chris's Dream, 7th Vaucelet and Billaway who fell. The last two finished 2nd and 1st in this last year and whilst a mistake at the last didn't help Vaucelet, I still think Billaway would have won. I think Vaucelet can get his revenge here though and looks the most likely winner to me. Going into Cheltenham I was concerned with the fact he hadn't run since Boxing Day and I think that told late on. Also, as we have seen the trainer's horses haven't really been seeing their races off and it is interesting to see the trainer say he came back from Cheltenham a bit sick. Given that was the case and he was only beaten 10L it was a huge run really.    Billaway finally hit the deck at Cheltenham after so many runs of making mistakes and not falling. He then went to Fairyhouse and was 2nd to Annamix who caused a huge upset. I'm still not sure it was the pace that Ferns Lock and Billaway went that led to that result because Ferns Lock to me seemed to be doing what he had been doing the rest of the season. I suspect that he probably wasn't 100% and as I say the trainer's horses weren't finishing their races off. Granted Billaway might have paid for chasing him, but you just get the feeling he isn't quite as good as he was and I'd be a little surprised if Vaucelet wasn't able to finish in front of him.    Its On The Line flew home to finish 2nd at Cheltenham, but this won't be as strong a test of stamina and he has been to Aintree as well where he fell at Becher's after being well back in the field. I think Vaucelet can reverse the form.   I also think Chris's Dream can reverse the form and he might just end up being the biggest danger to the favourite. I thought he ran a cracking race at Cheltenham to finish 5th. That was only his 3rd run since January 22 so he may come on for it again as well. His young jockey is yet to have a ride over fences under rules, but he has ridden A Dream To Share very well to win here and at Cheltenham.   Willie Mullins was shocked that Annamix beat Billaway and I'm not sure he will do the same here although it would be folly to totally rule him out. Lough Derg Spirit ran a cracker at Aintree when 3rd to Famous Clermont. I'm not sure he can win this, but it wouldn't surprise me if he ran on into a place.   I'm going with Vaucelet to go one better than last year and finally give his trainer one of the big 3 hunter chases. I will also be having a small saver on Chris's Dream as there was plenty to like about the Cheltenham run and he could improve for it.   Vaucelet 1pt @ 15/8 with Bet365 and William Hill (take up to 6/4) Chris's Dream 0.5pts @ 5/1 with William Hill and BetVictor who are 11/2 (take up to 4/1)

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.

Must admit I have no idea why Crosshill has been confirmed as a place given the field went down to 7 and I was very surprised to see I had been paid out. I can only think that it in Australia the place terms when you put the bet on are honored, but I honestly don't know. Still I will take it and nice to have Hurry Cane win as well. Saunter Boy was a frustrating beat and Nelson was a deserved winner.

The first all jumps card of the season comes from Pakenham and at this stage I have had chance to look at the non maiden races. Rather handily my mother in law lives in Pakenham and it was chucking it down with rain all Saturday evening and there is more rain planned during Sunday as well so I am expecting it to be Heavy ground.   Race 3 The first winner of 1 of the season and I would be a little surprised if one of the ex classy European horses didn't take this. It hasn't gone well for Port Guillaume since he moved to Australia from France and a G2 win at Deauville 3 years ago remains his last win. When he first moved he was running in the big races but was nearly last in the Melbourne Cup and it has been downhill from there. He went hurdling at the last meeting of the season and despite not jumping all that well, his flat class told late on and he was a good winner in the end. This prep he has had a flat run and whilst he finished last he was beaten less than 3L. He then trialled over hurdles and his jumping again left a little to be desired although he did show a nice turn of foot at the end.    Nelson was trained by Aidan O'Brien and was last seen for him in the 2018 Arc when finishing 8th behind Enable. He was then missing for a year and then ran 8th in a G3 at Caulfield. He then changed yards and didn't run until February 2021 when he finished 5th and 6th in a couple of Listed Races. Since then he has had another change of yards and another massive spell. He had a jump out and two hurdle trials before running in the Stony Creek Cup where he was 6th. I thought he had trialled well over hurdles going into his debut at Warrnambool and he jumped well on the whole that day when making the running and whilst looking in a little bit of danger entering the straight, he kicked clear to win nicely in the end. He trialled over hurdles again at Yarra Valley and his jumping actually wasn't as good, but they didn't go very quick which I don't think helped.   Of the rest Cotton Eye Joe was quite well beaten by Port Guillaume at Ballarat last year and I'm not sure he's improved on what he's done this season. Fabalot bolted up on that Ballarat card, but it was a very weak contest so I wouldn't want to go overboard on that.    Given we are looking at a heavy track and Nelson's only run on it was in the Ballysax Stakes back in 2018 when only 4 runners so I guess that is a little query whereas Port Guillaume's hurdles win was on a Heavy 10. I don't think there is as much between the two as the betting suggests, especially on the ground, so will have a small play on the ex-French horse   Port Guillaume 1pt @ 9/4 with William Hill, Paddy Power and Betfair   Race 4 Great to see the return of Saunter Boy who won this race last year and ended up being unbeaten in 5 races over hurdles last season. His rating obviously keeps going up and he has to give a lot of weight away to the rest, but I still think he will be hard to beat as he has trialled well and ran well on the flat at Bendigo as prep for this.   Instigator was solid enough when last seen over hurdles in 2021 before missing 2022. He has returned in good form on the flat in 2 runs this prep including last time. Didn't show his hand in his hurdle trials and whilst he may have improved since 2021 I think he will need to if he is going to beat Saunter Boy.   Heir To The Throne was 2nd in his first two hurdle runs last year and then won two on the bounce, but as impressive as he looked, they were pretty weak contests. He certainly won't lack for fitness though as he has already run 7 times on the Flat this and has been running well in decent contests. I'd say it is more his flat runs that have meant he is the price he is.   It is hard to make a case for the others and I if he remains in the form he was in last year then Saunter Boy will be hard to beat.   Saunter Boy 2pts @ 5/4 with William Hill   Race 5 Some might well remember the name Rockstar Ronnie who was trained by Dan Skelton over here until being sold to go to Australia after winning a Warwick handicap just under a year ago off 129. He's got a decent level of form over fences in this country over mainly 2m2f to think he could do very well in Australia. The big concern for me though would be if the ground is confirmed as being very testing. He did win a novice hurdle on soft ground, but connections seemed very keen to keep him to better ground and the vast majority of his runs were on good ground. He was also a non-runner on soft ground so if the track gets into the heavy range then he might struggle.   I thought Under The Bridge was going to win at Hamilton, but he faded on the run-in after making his move at about the 800m mark having been held up off the pace. That should have set him up nicely for this nicely for this and given he won on a Heavy 10 last year he won't mind what the weather does.   They aren't messing around with sending Epizeel over fences after his two hurdle runs this season. He won first up in a maiden and then ran well enough to finish 2nd last time. I watched his steeple at Yarra Valley and he jumped well enough, but he did make one very bad mistake. I'd rather watch to see how he gets on than back him in this.   In the same race Epizeel was 2nd in I put up former New Zealand runner Hurry Cane and like Under The Bridge he loomed large only to get tired late on. He now goes over fences and he should have benefitted plenty from that run which should give him a good chance here.   I'd be surprised if anything else managed to win. It will be fascinating to see how Rockstar Ronnie matches up to the Australian chasers, but if it gets heavy then I think he is worth taking on and I will split stakes on Under The Bridge and Hurry Can who will both improve for their runs at Hamilton.   Under The Bridge 1pt e/w @ 15/2 with Betfred Hurry Cane 1pt @ 18/5 with Bet365   Race 6 I've been really excited to see Stern Idol run over fences because his trails over fences have been really good. He came over from France and looked like the best jumper in Australia until Cheltenham 3rd Bell Ex One came over and beat him at Ballarat. As well as looking good in his trials he even won on the flat at Sandown last time and it is no real surprise to see him long odds on here.   When Bell Ex One and Stern Idol were running last season I did mention that I thought we would see more European horses go over to Australia and as well as Rockstar Ronnie in the previous race we also see Crosshill here. He was trained by Jessica Harrington and was a winner at the Punchestown Festival a year ago when winning over hurdles over 2m4f. When I was looking back through his form though he beat Vanillier on his hurdles debut back in 2020 and ended up running the Grade 1 Novice over 3m at the Punchestown Festival that season and whilst he finished last behind Galopin Des Champs he was badly struck into that. He also ran behind the Cheltenham Gold Cup winner at Leopardstown in Christmas 2021 and he finished lame that day so again we can ignore the fact he was beaten 81L. Current connections paid £85k to take him to Australia which just highlights how much prize money can be won to cover that. He has had 3 runs on the flat and has run well to get his fitness up and there was plenty to like in his trail win over fences at Warrnambool where he beat Britannicus.    Vanguard and Britannicus were 1st and 2nd in the Brierly last season and will no doubt be using this race as a stepping stone to that contest this year. Neither of those two are as good as Stern Idol and Crosshill for me though. I was all set to put up Stern Idol even at long odds on, but the value has to be with Crosshill who is an e/w price. His form in Ireland should mean he chould be one of the leading jumpers in Australia and given the flat runs for fitness he should be fit enough to do himself justice.   Crosshill 1.5pts e/w @ 8/1 with Bet365

Yes all the others will be covered. Been on holiday which has delayed things but will be up Thursday or Friday.

National League This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.   Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.   I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.   The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.   Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.   I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.   Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs.    I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.   Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.   There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.   The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.   Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365 Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only) York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.

Wealdstone v Dorking Wealdstone have only picked up one point in their last 7 games and you certainly get the sense they have run out of steam after their flirtation with the play-offs ended. If there was one game I would have said wouldn't have ended goalless it would have been Gateshead v Dorking although with the home side having an xG of 3.14 it clearly shows it shouldn't have ended 0-0. Whilst Dorking may have had some good fortune in getting a point, it did continue their superb run of form where they have only lost to Woking in their last 7, winning 5 of them. In that Woking game they were unlucky to lose as well. Even though they have secured a 2nd season at this level I still think Dorking look value to win at a side badly out of form.     Taunton v Worthing Taunton have not played well in their last 2 games and Worthing look well placed to beat them. Taunton have lost 2-0 to Dulwich and 3-0 to Hungerford, both sides in a relegation battle and in the case of the latter more than likely to go down. Worthing still need 1 more win to be certain of a play-off spot and if they can get 5th then they will be at home in the first round of the play-offs, so they have plenty still to play for. The other thing is they are clearly the better side so even money and a shade of odds on look worth taking.    Alfreton v Blyth Spartans A huge game for both clubs as the home side are trying to get into the play-offs and the away side are trying in the division. Alfreton drew against Gloucester last Saturday, but were very lucky to get a point and I was told by mates at the game that they looked very tired. They then went to Banbury on Tuesday night and again got very lucky to get another point. They have had a tough schedule trying to play catch-up on their games and Blyth are giving themselves a great chance of staying up. Their win on Tuesday at Farsley was huge as they are now out of the relegation zone on goal difference on the same points as Farsley. Farsley don't often lose at home so it was a very good win. If they can carry that form into this then I think they have a chance of beating an under performing Alfreton.   Southport v Kidderminster 6 defeats on the bounce for the home side and I really like Kidderminster here who look a great bet at odds against. Given how much they have struggled for wins and goals for most of the season it is rather surprising that they have managed to get themselves in with a chance of getting a play-off spot. They have only lost to Chester in their last 10 games and in that spell have conceded just 4 times. They have won 4 on the bounce including a huge 2-0 win at Fylde and they really ought to be winning this which may make things nervy for Southport depending on results elsewhere.   Carshalton v Wingate & Finchley (Isthmian Premier) The home side have already announced that their manager is leaving after the season ends on Saturday. They haven't won in 6 games and they lost to Potters Bar last Saturday which takes some doing. I wonder how motivated the players will be given they don't have a manager to impress and with Wingate winning 3 on the bounce they might just have a chance of winning this.   Merthyr v Hayes & Yeading (Southern Premier South) Hayes have had a really tough week. They beat Tiverton 7-0 on Monday, then had a cup final on Wednesday before going to Tiverton and drawing 0-0 on Thursday. That's a lot of football and with nothing on this game it would be no surprise if they are flagging a bit. Merthyr haven't played all week and on the whole they have been strong at home this season so I am happy to back them home team. Must admit I wasn't expecting the home side to be such a big price as I only checked Bet365 to start with and they are a fair bit shorter than everyone else.   Kings Langley v AFC Rushden & Diamonds (Southern Premier Central) Two relegated sides and whilst Rushden conceded in injury time last week it still continued their good run. They did have to play on Thursday night and lost to Rushall which wasn't a huge surprise. Kings Langley haven't won in 7 games and have picked up just two points in that time. Rushden just look too big a price again to pick up a final 3 points of the season as they have been playing better than their hosts.   Nantwich v Radcliffe (Northern Premier) Both sides need 3 points here as only a win will do for Nantwich in an attempt to stay up, but a draw on Thursday night has probably cost them their chance of survival. Radcliffe really should be in the play-offs, but too many draws has meant they are out of them on goal difference going into the final day of the season. That is highlighted by the fact they have lost 2 and drawn 4 of their last 6. I think they can win this though and possibly get themselves into the play-offs.   Dorking 1pt @ 2/1 with Paddy Power, Betfair and Coral (take up to 13/8) Worthing 2.5pts @ 10/11 as sent earlier Kidderminster 3pts @ 11/10 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 4/5) Wingate & Finchley 1pt @ 16/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 9/4) Merthyr 1pt @ 21/10 @ Betfair and Paddy Power (take up to 6/4) Rushden & Diamonds 1pt @ 13/5 with Betfair and Paddy Power (BetVictor are 27/10 and take up to 15/8) Radcliffe 1pt @ 5/4 with Skybet, BetVictor and Betfred (take up to 11/10)

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.