Non-League Ante Post 2022/23

[Darran]

National League

This season sees the shortest price favourites that I can remember for the National League in the shape of Wrexham and they clearly deserve to be at the head of the market as they have the best team in the division and one that wouldn't look out of place in League 1. They haven't been as busy in the transfer market as I thought they would be, but it wouldn't surprise me if more players did arrive before the end of August. At the time I thought they paid enough money for Ollie Palmer from AFC Wimbledon, but he managed to score 15 goals after he joined which was a staggering return from just 22 games. Alongside Mullin they had a great front two and if both stay fit you have to think they will be looking at the possibility of scoring 50 goals between them. I have little doubt they have the best squad in the division, but what they don't have in my view is the best manager. Phil Parkinson was found wanting last season for me and I do think if they win the title it will be despite his abilities as a manager. The hope for Wrexham fans is that either that happens or that Parkinson has learnt from his first season in charge. Early in the season they struggled at home and were superb away, but that switched towards the end of the season and they put in some poor performances on their travels which cost them the title. If they can iron those issues out then they probably walk away with the title, but things are rarely that easy in the National League. Ultimately though I do think they are the most likely team to win the title, but I just can't back them at 6/4 as I would ideally want 5/2 at least. What I wouldn't mind happening is them having a poorer than hoped for start to the season and then he gets the sack and they get someone better in as happened at Stockport last season. Then would be the time to back them, but really it's hard to see them ever getting to decent price. They are one for any multi's you are going to do, but as I a single I just think they are too short.

 

Notts County are next in the betting as they look to get out of the league at the third time of asking after losing in the play-offs the last couple of seasons. I was a bit surprised to see Ian Burchnall leave to go to Forest Green Rovers because I didn't think he did a great job at County. They were never really in title contention at any stage although at the end they were only 6 points behind Wrexham. I think they have taken a bit of a risk going with Luke Williams as manager (or head coach as they like to describe the role). As I say every season you need a manager who knows the league to win the league and Williams has no experience at all of Non-League football. It was suggested that County tried to get the Altrincham manager Phil Parkinson in, but he turned them down. I'm sure it will a manager with no Non-League experience will win the league at some point, but I certainly don't think it is factored into their odds. Signings wise it has been an interesting summer as they have started to look at Step 2 having snapped up two Gateshead strikers and a couple from Kidderminster. The scouting website Wyscout covered Step 2 for the first-time last season and it wouldn't surprise me if that information coming available has led to them looking downwards for players. If Macauley Langstaff and Cedwyn Scott can replicate the success they had at Gateshead last season then that will put County right in the mix, but whilst Gateshead were a step above their rivals last year, it was a weak division, and they will face much stronger defences this time around. They should be good for the play-offs again, but I think they will fall short of the title again with Williams being a big risk for me.

 

I better be careful what I say about what James Rowe did to get himself sacked from Chesterfield, but if that hadn't happened and Tshimanga doesn't get injured then I think they would have won the league last season because they were so far clear of Stockport and Wrexham. However Rowe left and not long after than Tshimanga had a season ending injury against Weymouth. Paul Cook proved to be a shocking choice of manager and as much as injuries didn't help his cause he looked clueless as manager. In the end they were lucky to even reach the play-offs and whilst he is manager of Chesterfield I couldn't possibly back them for the league. There has been a big turnover in playing staff and to be fair they have got a decent squad again. The key thing for them though is how well Tshimanga has recovered from his major injury and he hasn't featured in pre-season which suggests he won't be ready for the start of the season. He was looking good for 40 goals last season which would have been a staggering effort and clearly any team who have a striker scoring that many is going to go close. If he struggles though or if he leaves then I don't think they will get close to winning the title and it wouldn't surprise me if Cook isn't manager come the end of the season. What I will say though is there is no excuses now for Cook as he has the team he wants now and maybe he will prove me wrong.

 

The next team in the betting are Solihull who had a stunning season to finish 3^rd under Neil Ardley. I wasn't sure he was the right man for the job when they hired him, but he did a better job than he had done with Notts County the previous season. At the time I thought they should choose Mark Yates who did very well as a temporary manager the season before, but Yates went back to Stourbridge and had a disastrous time of things and got sacked! Amazing how football works sometimes. I was really impressed with them last season and it should be remembered that they finished just 1 point behind Wrexham in the end. Now losing play-off finalists don't have a great record the following season and their can be a hangover for sure. I don't think that will happen here though and I think Solihull have done great business over the summer. First, keeping Joe Sbarra was a very pleasant surprise for them and then they picked Josh Kelly last week from Maidenhead which was a good move (he chose them over Southend). They might just be capable of over turning the losing play-off finalists stat.

 

Halifax overachieved again last season under Pete Wild and to get them to the play-offs was a superb effort. He's gone now though as has quite a few key players from that side and I just can't have them at all. They can't keep overachieving and I reckon they might even end up in a relegation battle. Dagenham & Redbridge had a great start to the season, but then flattered to deceive a bit and I'm just not sure McMahon is the man to kick them onto the next step and get them in the play-offs. It would surprise me if they finished just outside them again. Torquay could be interesting. Gary Johnson is one of the best managers in the league and they were hampered massively by the fact the play-off final was so close to the start of the season. They've lost some key players, but Johnson knows what it takes to build a good team at this level and whilst they look no more than fairly priced, they could well end up in the play-offs if Johnson has got it right again.

 

I don't fancy either of the relegated sides at this stage. Oldham look like they will be taken over which will help them, but Sheridan didn't exactly do much as Chesterfield manager so his experience at this level isn't great. They look under priced to me. Scunthorpe look in a right mess and if there was relegation betting available, I would be putting them up as a bet. Another team who I think would be final to go down is Yeovil. If your manager is leaving to go to Woking, then that doesn't say a great deal about the sort of budget that is available. I'm not sure about Chris Hargreaves as manager. He didn't do that well when he managed before and wen I listen to him on BT Sport's coverage of the league he doesn't strike me as someone who would make a great manager. I don't think they have done great business and I think they will struggle.

 

Boreham Wood suffered badly from injuries around the time they played Everton in the FA Cup and that hindered them badly in the final months of the season. They managed to go from title contenders to missing out on the play-offs. Luke Garrard is one of the best managers in the league and whilst he stays, I can see them always being in the mix for the play-offs. 

 

I think Southend could be in for a very good season. I like the set-up behind the scenes and having John Still and Darren Currie involved is a big plus for me. Their involvement helped turn things around for them massively after the disaster that was Phil Brown. Still knows this level like the back of his hand and I think he's recruited well. You have to think that if the current set-up had been in place a year ago then they would have been play-off contenders so there should be improvement to come and with the new signings they look a much stronger side as well.

 

Those teams make up the top half of the betting and whilst Wrexham might well end up winning it like I say they are for multi bets only. For me, the value is with Solihull Moors. I would make them 2^nd favourites based on the squad they have, and I just really liked the way they went about things last season. Given how strongly they finished the campaign you would hope that despite losing the play-off final they can kick on this season and at the very least finish in the top 3 again. I am also going to back Southend. I have a small doubt if they can make the step up to title contenders, but they have a strong squad and they are over priced for me.

 

There are two more teams I want to add from the bottom half of the betting. First of all I really don't get the price of Woking. Like I mention above they were able to get Darren Sarll from Yeovil last season and that more me said a lot about their ambition. I put them up last season as I thought they were way overpriced, and they got some huge victories early on. It sort of went wrong after that though and it cost Alan Dowson his job. I think Sarll was a good choice of manager and I think they have done some very good business over the summer. I just can't make them 50/1 shots and I would love a match bet with them at Yeovil at the very least! The other team I like at a big price is York. Now clearly going from National League North Play-Off winners to National League champions is going to be some feat, but they have been taken over and they seem to have a bit of money to spend based on their summer signings. It was a big surprise that Chesterfield let Alex Whittle go and the fact York managed to sign him up was a big sign to their chances. What I also like is the fact they have a league winner as their manager in the shape of John Askey. How on earth he got Macclesfield to win the title I will never know, but it is probably the best managerial performance at this level since I started betting on it in the 07/08 season. I could see them surprising a few people and am happy to have a small bet on them.

 

The top goalscorer market was especially painful last year given Tshimanga should have been a winning 40/1 bet. This season he is just 9/1 which probably isn't a bad price, but as I mention above it looks like he is missing the start of the season and it might take him a bit of time to get up to speed. He could be worth chancing at bigger odds once he returns to full strength. Last season's winner Paul Mullin heads the betting, but for me the value lies with his strike partner Ollie Palmer. As I point out above, he had an amazing scoring record after he moved to Wrexham from AFC Wimbledon and you have to think that if he had been there all season, he would have outscored Mullin. On that basis I am happy to have a small interest in Palmer e/w.

 

Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365

Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet

Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only)

York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone

Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

[bromsgrovegreen]

Excellent write up and info as always Darran,

Looking forward to the season......

Will you be doing ante post on the other leagues?

 

I'm heading to Bromsgrove sporting v St Ives Saturday, will report back with thoughts after the game. Not expecting much from Bromsgrove, lost all their best players(there weren't  many last season!) and have a complete rebuild with a new manager Thomas Baille. 

 

 

 

[Darran]

15 hours ago, bromsgrovegreen said:

Excellent write up and info as always Darran,

Looking forward to the season......

Will you be doing ante post on the other leagues?

 

I'm heading to Bromsgrove sporting v St Ives Saturday, will report back with thoughts after the game. Not expecting much from Bromsgrove, lost all their best players(there weren't  many last season!) and have a complete rebuild with a new manager Thomas Baille. 

 

 

 

Yes all the others will be covered. Been on holiday which has delayed things but will be up Thursday or Friday.

[Darran]

National League South

I am astonished that Havant are still available at a double figure price. They certainly under achieved last season given their squad and their budget as they should have been in the play-offs at the very least. In the end they missed out on a spot by two points and it was mainly their home form which was to blame as they only picked up 29 points at home. Before Covid hit in 2020 they were just 3 points behind Wealdstone in 2nd place in their first season under Doswell. They still have one of the highest budgets in the division and Doswell has signed really well over the summer. Signing Muhammadu Faal on Tuesday looks a really good bit of business as he was a scoring machine for Enfield last season and if he can take that form into the league above then he could end up being the best signing of the summer for any team. 16/1 is a mad price and the only doubt about them I have is the manager as I just wonder if he was the reason they underperformed last season, but he knows how to win this league so hopefully they can bounce back and have a strong season. I think they should be 2nd favourites myself. 

 

Worthing are the 2nd bets. They won the Isthmian League at a canter last season which wasn't really a surprise as they put together one of the best sides seen at that level. It was already a side that looked capable of challenging at Step 2 and with the recruitment made over the summer they can kick on again and bid for a 2nd promotion on the bounce. 

 

The final bet is obviously a bit of a flyer as they are the outsiders, but Welling are way too big at 80/1. A change of manager at the back end of last season led to improvement and that kept them in the division. A change of the pitch has helped has well as the recruitment over the summer has been strong. I just can't see them being in a relegation battle again and really with the squad they have they should be looking at the play-offs and just maybe they can go even higher than that. Granted we are probably looking at a value loser, but I can't let them go unbacked at such big odds.

 

Ebbsfleet are favourites and they were so close to beating Dorking in the play-off final last season. I think they are the right market leaders, but Havant should be just behind them so it is clear where the value is. Dover have had extra cash to spend this season given they would have saved plenty last season when they were doomed to relegation before a ball was kicked. The problem they might have though is that the club is used to losing and although there are plenty of new players you it might just take a little bit of time to break that losing habit at the club. I thought David Oldfield did a hell of a job at Oxford City and I was surprised he went to Weymouth as they already looked set for relegation when he took over. They have had a huge turnover of players and whilst I like the manager I want to wait and see how they get on early doors. Dartford started the season off really well and went short for the title. After that they just struggled a bit as Steve King seemed to lose the plot a bit. They ended up going out of the play-offs at the first time of asking and King duly left. I think Alan Dowson was a good choice of replacement and they should be in contention again. The other team worth a mention are my local side Dulwich. They have by far the biggest support in the league and that has clearly led to an increase in budget based on the players they have signed. They barely won in the 2nd half of the season last term though and I still wonder if Gavin Rose is the right manager to take them to the next level. I think if they don't finish in the play-offs this season then it will surely be time for a change at the top.

 

National League North

Clearly it is wrong that James Rowe found another job so soon after leaving Chesterfield and Fylde are the only club who would possibly have given someone like him a job. As much as I hope it ends in failure for him they are the right favourites for the title and I think they are worth backing. Usually the North is strong, but I am not sure there is much depth in the division this season and they look to have the best squad. What Rowe needs to control is his temperament as he will surely come in for abuse at away grounds this season and when he went to Gloucester last season it clearly affected him and the players as they performed poorly and lost the game. That is the only doubt I have about them winning the title as they really ought to.

 

If Tommy Widdrington had been in charge of Kings Lynn earlier, then I reckon they might have stayed up because they weren't too far away in the end. They look to have a strong side for this level and they could easily get a top 3 spot so they look a solid e/w bet. The other bet at a big price is Buxton. Anyone who was able to beat South Shields last season were going to have a very good side and Buxton duly did that. They are a side that is well backed and the fact they were able to get Jamie Vermiglio in as manager from Chorley says a lot for me as well. As I mention above, I don't think there is much depth in the division this season so they look well placed to challenge straight away for another promotion.

 

Kidderminster are 2nd in the betting which is understandable. They clearly have plenty of cash after the FA Cup run last season and although they have lost some key players they still look strong after recruiting the new ones. I did notice last season their xG was rather low given how high up the table they were and they relied on wonder goals in a few games. They will need to create better chances this season to be possible title winners for me as they can't keep relying to wonder goals. Brackley finished 2nd last season thanks to a superb defence. They have lost a lot of players though which isn't going to help, but they are nearly always in the play-offs and they can manage that again. Boston would be my 4th pick at the odds as I am a huge fan of Paul Cox and he did well to get them to the play-off final last season. They should be in the mix again.

 

As for the others there will be plenty of sides who hope they can get into the top 7. Darlington, Spennymoor, Alfreton, Peterborough Sports (signed surprisingly well) and possibly even my own side Gloucester look the most likely to do so for me. Chester look a bit high in the betting and I think Chorley might struggle a little after Vermiglio left. 

 

Northern Premier League

I thought South Sheilds would win this easily last year, but Buxton beat them to the title. It was their away form which really cost them as they dropped some silly points on their travels. If anything, their squad looks even better this time around and they really ought to win the title. Like Wrexham though they look short enough, but they are worth putting in some multi bets like the Welsh side. I'm going to have a couple of e/w bets and hopefully one of them can get in the top 3. The first of them is Radcliffe. They were only 15th last season, but they have made some really impressive summer signings and they really ought to improve on that this season so they look a big price. The other team I like at the prices is Warrington Town who are always contenders and look in a good position to hit the top 3 this year with the squad they have.

 

Isthmian Premier League

I can understand why Hornchurch are favourites as they look to have a decent side yet again and can build on their 4th place finish from last season. At the prices though I prefer Bishops Stortford who finished 2nd to Worthing last season and although they never looked like catching them, they managed to score 89 goals whilst conceding just 33 which was the fewest in the division. They look to have strengthened the side well over the summer and I am surprised that they are available at a double figure price. The other team worth backing for me are Bognor Regis. They finished in 9th last season as they just lacked for consistency. I like the signings they have made over the summer and they ought to be in a position to challenge for the play-offs at least.

 

Southern Premier League Central

Ilkeston have been heavily backed for the title and are now a pretty short price at the head of the market. I was going to put them up, but they aren't value at the current price as much as they look set to go very well in what doesn't look the strongest division. What that does mean though is that Tamworth look a good price and we can back them e/w. They had a really poor season last time around which was surprising as they looked most likely to win the title win Covid hit back in 2020. Andy Peaks came in as manager from AFC Rushden which just highlights the potential Tamworth have because they were near the bottom at the time whilst Rushden were in play-off contention. They were unbeaten under Peaks and with the signings they have made they really ought to finish top 3 at the very least. The other team I will cover are Rushall. They finished 4th last season, but only got 6 points from their last 10 games which was shocking. They look stronger this season and clearly they weren't far away last season so I am happy to get involved this term.

 

Southern Premier League South

Hayes are favourites having gone close to winning the title last season and whilst they can go well again they look too short in the betting for me. There are two teams I like here both at double figure prices. I have put Weston-Super-Mare up for the last couple of seasons and they underperformed in the Covid season and it was looking like being more of the same last season, but then they really hit form later on in the season. Indeed, you only have to take the opening 12 games off their total and they would have finished 2nd behind champions Taunton. If they can carry last season's form into this one and they have evolved the squad nicely over the summer, then just maybe this is the year they can finally get promoted. The other team I like is Gosport who clearly have plenty of money to spend this season. They were originally put in at a stupidly big price and whilst that has long gone, I still think they are value because they have one of the best squads in the division and the odds don't reflect that.

 

NB As far as I know only Bet365 and William Hill have priced up the Step 3 divisions.

 

Solihull Moors 1pt e/w @ 11/1 with Bet365

Southend 0.75pts e/w 22/1 with Skybet

Woking 0.25pts e/w @ 61/1 with Skybet and 50/1 everywhere else (sadly the 80/1 with Paddy Power and Betfair is win only)

York 0.25pts e/w @ 40/1 with everyone

Ollie Palmer to be top goalscorer 0.5pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

National League South

Havant & Waterlooville 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Betfred

Worthing 0.75pts @ 12/1 with William Hill

Welling 0.5pts @ 80/1 with Betfred

 

National League North

AFC Fylde 2pts @ 4/1 with Skybet

Kings Lynn 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365, Coral and Ladbrokes

Buxton 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with Coral, Ladbrokes and Bet365

 

Northern Premier League

Radcliffe 0.75pts e/w @ 25/1 with Bet365

Warrington Town 0.75pts e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

 

Isthmian Premier

Bishops Stortford 1.5pts e/w @ 12/1 with Bet365

Bognor Regis 1pt @ 8/1 with Bet365

Southern Premier Central

Tamworth 2pts e/w @ 6/1 with Bet365

Rushall 0.5pts @ 13/2 with William Hill

 

Southern Premier South

Weston-Super-Mare 1pt e/w @ 16/1 with Bet365

Gosport 1pt e/w @ 10/1 with Bet365

[Darran]

I am happy enough with Kings Lynn and Fylde in the National League North, but I have to add Gloucester to the bets. As I mentioned last week getting Steve King in as boss is a huge statement for me and with the league looking weak this year and Gloucester only 5 points off the league it would be no surprise if they couldn't get in the top 3 at the very least. He has already transformed the way the team play and Phillips who looked awful under our last manager has now scored 4 in 2 games under King. Alfreton's goal last week came from a free kick which the keeper basically threw the ball into the net and although Alfreton had a lot of possession in the last 15 minutes of the game the defence was very robust. With King set to improve the squad in the coming weeks I think we will only get better and thus at 33/1 I have had to have a bet. 25/1 is available with Bet365 is also worth taking if you can only get on with them.

 

National League North

Gloucester 0.5pts e/w @ 33/1 with William Hill and Skybet

[Labrador]

Thanks Darran. Even after yesterday's results 25/1 still available about Gloucester.

Both Fylde and Kings Lynn are very patchy, and I agree that Gloucester have every chance, It's crazy that Kidderminster are still 10/1 - 12/1. They are on the slide big time and have more chance of being in the Southern League than getting promoted.

[Darran]

I do think Kings Lynn are the best side in the league and we host them on Saturday so that will be a big test as well Chester tomorrow. Would be happy with a couple of draws to be honest especially as I think we will get better whatever happens this week.

[Darran]

Weston and Bishops Stortford both won their leagues tonight and with Warrington having already been placed it means the total returns stand at 52.25 with the total stakes having been 30.25. There will be more profit to come as well as either Fylde or Kings Lynn will win the NLN and Tamworth will be placed at worse.

[bromsgrovegreen]

Nice work Darran.......

[Darran]

Another 19 points added to the total with Tamworth winning the title today so returns are now 71.25.

[bromsgrovegreen]

If fylde do the business today you're on for a big payout!

Fingers crossed 

[Labrador]

Well done, Darran👍.

Hard to believe that both Gloucester and Kidderminster have made the play-offs😲 .

[Darran]

14 more points to add to the total after Fylde do the business (to win me a lot of money if you were following on Twitter!) and Kings Lynn finish 2nd which makes it a return of 85.25 to give a profit of 55 points. Quite a staggering return in what has been a rollercoaster few weeks where Tamworth especially looked like they had blown it.

[Darran]

7 hours ago, Labrador said:

Well done, Darran👍.

Hard to believe that both Gloucester and Kidderminster have made the play-offs😲 .

A very dramatic afternoon. Given we should have been in them with ease to then do it in the way we did was just incredible. As for Kiddie it is amazing as well given how poor you have been for most of the season. It sums the league up though because so many of the sides that were in play-off contention today have been pretty bad for a lengthy spell at one time or another. Whatever happens though I am just delighted we are in them.

[Labrador]

Not sure the bookies pay enough heed to current form tables. Brackley have been pretty poor for a couple of months, only beating hapless Southport and Darlington and losing at home to relegated Telford and Leamington.

At 14/5 with Sporting Index Gloucester have to be a bet to win the play-off match on Wednesday.