Cheltenham Hunter Chase night

[Darran]

Cheltenham Hunter Chase night is here and as usual I have previewed the whole card with something about every horse running tonight. The bets are at the top for easy access and the previews below that. Hopefully it will be a good and profitable evening and Bradley Gibbs might well end up with a 4-timer.

 

List of bets

4.50 - Fier Jaguen 5pts @ 4/5 with everyone apart from BetVictor and Coral who are 5/6 (take up to 8/13)

5.25 - Theshoddytradesman 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Hills who are 10/3 (take up to 5/2) & Lift Me Up 0.5pts @ 5/2 with eveyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 11/4 (take up to 2/1)

6.00 - Marcle Ridge 2pts @ 2/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 15/8 (take up to 6/4) & Trio For Rio 1pt @ 3/1 with everyone apart from Bet365 who are 7/2 (take up to 5/2)

6.35 - Premier Magic to beat Dandy Dan 1pt f/c and Dandy Dan 0.5pts e/w @ 7/1 with William Hill and BetVictor (365 are 15/2 and take up to 6/1)

7.10 - Highway Jewel 3pts @ 10/11 with everyone (take up to 8/11) & Sine Nomine 0.5pts @ 10/3 with everyone apart from Hills and BetVictor who are 7/2 and 365 who are 3/1 (take up to 5/2)

7.45 - Law Of Gold 2pts @ 13/8 with everyone apart from Hills who are 7/4 (take up to 6/4) & Step Back 1pt e/w @ 12/1 with everyone (Paddys and Betfair are 4 places and take up to 8/1)

8.17 - Solomon Grey 1pt e/w @ 7/1 with everyone apart from 365 who are 13/2 (take up to 5/1) & Fix It All 1pt @ 4/1 with Skybet, Willam Hill, BetVictor, Coral, Ladbrokes and Betfred (take up to 3/1)

 

4.50

Envious Editor - Looked like winning this race last year as he cruised into contention only to then get outbattled by Envoye Special and I never thought I would see a horse get outbattle by him. Landed the first hunter chase of the season by beating Singapore Saga which is decent enough form. He then disappointed at Hereford before running as well as could have been in the Walrus at Haydock when an 18L 2^nd to Famous Clermont. After that run he left Joe O'Shea's yard and ran no more than OK at Ludlow when 3^rd behind Fix It All and Espoir De Teillee. I wouldn't rule him out totally, but I don't think he has the class of a couple of these and hard not to have his finishing effort last year in the back of your mind.

 

Caryto Des Brosses - Has been one of the best hunter chasers around when he's not been injured over the years. He was beaten a neck by Hazel Hill on this card in 2019 and then lost out by the same margin in the Stratford Foxhunters to Wonderful Charm. He then only had 1 run in 2020 and 2021, but returned last year in good form and looked the winner on this card last year until Dandy Dan came through with a late run to beat him. This year he returned with a solid win at Southwell, before running below par at Newbury when 5^th behind Lift Me Up. I think the ground was the big issue that day though and I'm prepared to look over that effort. He had a perfect prep for this when bolting up at Garthorpe a couple of weeks ago in a quick time. It is interesting they are dropping him back to 2m and he was certainly speedy enough for 2m4f in his younger days and I think he will be fine over it.

 

Santon - Looks like he doesn't really stay 3m as he was beaten at Garthorpe a couple of times a year ago in Opens and in his last run he was beaten when falling at the last in a 3 runner Ladies Open at Shelfield Park in March. Prior to that though he ran well to finish 2^nd to Time Leader and then won over 2m4f back at Leicester the following week. That was a weak race though and he can make mistakes which would be a concern round here. He would need the two leading horses to run below par to have any chance.

 

Takethepunishment - Another horse who has had his issues over the years as he has only run 17 times and is 13. Made a winning hunter chase debut when landing last year's Buccleuch Cup at Kelso with ease. That wasn't a strong race though and he was only 3^rd to Point The Way at Perth following that. Has won both points this season although they backed up my view point that he looks a horse to have plenty of stamina. The race he won last time at Overton took 6m 53s to run and he got himself outpaced between the final 2 fences before staying on to win. So I have a big concern about the trip and I doubt he would be good enough anyway.

 

Famoso - Ran in this race last year when a well beaten 5th. He has been beaten 6 times in points this season and remains a maiden. He doesn't look to even stay 2m4f so the trip is right, but he will be outclassed again.

 

Fier Jaguen - Clearly you all know what I think about this horse and he was a bit unfortunate at Aintree as he just pecked on landing at the 7^th which is the ditch on the run to Bechers'. Clearly jumping out to his right didn't help, but the fact he was so bold over his fences meant he just pecked and Bradley had little chance of staying on. He seemed to love the experience though as he jumped a fair few of the other fences with the field. I think he would have been 1^st or 2^nd if he had remained in the race and whilst I am a big fan of Caryto Des Brosses I just don't think he is as good as Fier Jaguen. His 3 pointing performances this year have been so impressive and in the last two the times he clocked were quick and the speed rating he received was very high. I don't have any concerns about the trip for him, because he has such a high cruising speed that he just going to blast off in front and it will be a case of catch me if you can and I don't think they will catch him. I obviously expect he will jump right again, but apart from Caryto Des Brosses is the only horse class who can get near him and I think he will still be more than good enough to win.

 

Fils Spirtuel - Showed a bit of promise in maiden hurdles in the 19/20 season for Willie Mullins, but he hasn't progressed and has struggled in Restricted's for his new trainer. Does run like he needs 2m, but unlikely to be good enough.

 

Josh The Plod - Won a couple of times last year in the South East which is pretty much the weakest area when it comes to pointing. Had 3 starts this season and run no more than OK. Makes the running, but that is unlikely to happen here unless he goes really fast and shouldn't be good enough.

 

Precious Bounty - A solid pointer and his best run so far this season wasn't either of his wins, but his 2^nd to Law Of Gold at Garthorpe. That was the only time Gina Andrews has ridden him though which might not be a coincidence. He is another one who tends to make the running as he did at Stratford last time when 3^rd behind Sine Nomine, but he is unlikely to be able to do that tonight. I think the trip round here will be OK and whilst he will need the main two to disappoint he has a chance of being best of the rest.

 

Reweritetherules - Was a 14L 3^rd in this race last year, but was in better form then so might not be able to even repeat that effort let alone for 2 places better. 

 

Verdict - To me this is a match race between Fier Jaguen and Caryto Des Brosses and firm preference is for the former. I have made no secret of how much I think of this horse and whilst he wasn't able to show it at Aintree, I fully expect him to show how good he is here. Most of these won't be able to live with his high cruising speed and for me the only way he gets beat is he fail to get round again. I suspect Dale Peters will sit in behind Fier Jaguen and hope that he can pick him up on the run-in, but I don't think he will be able to. I'd be a little surprised if anything else won but Envious Editor and Precious Bounty would be my picks of the rest.

 

5.25

All Is True - The Eillis team have won 2 of the last 3 renewals of this so clearly he has to be respected as their chosen runner. He is 3/3 for them this season going through the grades and each time they have bene very complementary about him after the race. He won his maiden and restricted with ease both at Horseheath and then he beat Frisson Collonges by 22L at Garthrope in an Intermediate which is his biggest winning margin. That doesn't tell the full story though because he was in a great battle Lagan Valley until that one decided to run out at the last. I think All Is True had the upper hand at time, but it is good form because Lagan Valley has been in very good form this season and he won next time out. A leading contender.

 

Bonamargy - Did win his Intermediate last time, but that was his 23^rd start and if he is good enough then this race has much less quality than I think it does.

 

Camdonian - Is 3/3 since going pointing for new connections, but I'm not sure there is a huge substance to his form. He did beat a Tom Eillis horse when winning his maiden at Charm Park, but that horse was well beaten next time and just getting the better of Red Opium last time doesn't scream winner of this to me.

 

Frisson Collonges - Held by both Lift Me Up and All Is True and an unlikely winner.

 

Lift Me Up - Luckily for him this is a race which doesn't carry a penalty for winning a hunter chase because he is the only horse which has done just that. I thought there was plenty to like about his Newbury win because he didn't jump very well and he showed greenness when hanging in behind the front running 3rd. Drop Flight was flying home to finish 2^nd and he was 2^nd at Hexham next time. He clearly is a very promising horse, but his jumping round here in a bigger field would worry me. He is named after Geri Horner's first number 1 solo single and her husband Christian Horner is the other owner with her. He has the best form in the race, but on the other hand he is the only one who has been able to show form like that. Clearly one of the possible winners though.

 

Pyleigh Court - Chris Barber clearly didn't see much in him as he got rid after just 3 starts, but he has gone on to win 3/4 for his new yard. The only time he was beaten was 1^st up this season when beaten 0.5L by Theshoddytradesman. He was getting 5lbs from the winner that day and whilst including jockey claims he gets 4lbs here Bradley is way superior to Ella Herbison. The race he won last time was only a match so told us very little. I think you have to give him some sort of chance given how unexposed he is and how close he got to Theshoddytradesman

 

Quintin's Man - He clearly wasn't suited to 2m4f when he finished 16L behind Theshoddytradesman and Pyleigh Court at Buckfastleigh in March and he showed that by winning over 3m and 3m4f on his next two starts. Whilst he will get a stamina test here, I do think he wants softer ground. It was a fair run when 2^nd at Exeter 2 weeks ago, but this race is much stronger than that one so I suspect he will find this hard enough with the ground not ideal.

 

Slievegar - Does seem to have improved for the change of yard as he's done pretty well pointing this season, but he has been stuffed in the same Cartmel hunter chase twice and it is hard to see him having improved enough to play a part here.

 

Tekap - Was 2^nd in the Restricted Final at Stratford in 2021, but that was a shocking race and he's struggled on the whole since including being 23L behind All Is True at Garthorpe in March.

 

The New Kid - Finished 2^nd beaten 0.75L by Runwiththetide at Thorpe Lodge on Easter Monday and the rime was by far the quickest on the card, but that race of 4 was the biggest field out of the 5 races and I wouldn't want to read too much into the time. That was the 3^rd time he has finished 2^nd this season and he pulled up the other time.

 

Theshoddytradesman - Is 4/4 since coming to the UK and interestingly given this race is 3m2f, 3 of those victories were over 2m4f. He was really impressive over Christmas at Chaddesley Corbett when bolting up by 30L and it was the same card Premier Magic and Fier Jaguen won on as well. He stepped up to 3m next time at Chipley and won by an eased down 30L again. I think this was probably his most impressive performance and he certainly wasn't stopping. His winning time was 10 seconds quicker that Quintin's Man in the following race. Last time he had to work much harder for his success at Buckfastleigh back over 2m4f and only beat Pyleigh Court by 0.5L. His jumping wasn't as good as it can be and I just wonder if he wasn't quite at his best. He always looked like he would always hold on though and the 2-month break isn't going to have done him any harm at all. He is the biggest price of the Gibbs 4, but he still has a massive chance.

 

Red Opium - Does seem to have improved of late despite only winning 3 of her 16 starts pointing and hasn't been out of the first 2 in her last 5 starts including when winning at Overton on Saturday. He was a 3.5L 2^nd to Cambonian in a race where they were the only 2 finishes. The time was decent and he will certainly stay as that race measured as 3m2f and he ran like needed 4m. Jockey change a plus, but whilst he is better than his official rating of 71 I would be surprised if he was good enough to take this.

 

Runwiththetide - Was really struggling under rules for Dan Skelton, but looks a changed horse for Kelly Morgan in her two starts pointing winning both in March over 2m4f and on Easter Monday over 3m. Nothing overly impressive and at Thorpe Lodge she was beating The New Kid by 0.75L. I always respect the trainers runners and I suspect she would be very well handicapped off a mark of 94, but I'm not sure she is as good as some of these.

 

Vedict - I am not sure there is as much depth to this race as the numbers suggest and for me the front 3 in the betting are the most like winners. I've had Theshoddytradesman lined up for this since he won at Chaddesley Corbett and whilst he has to go and prove he will stay I think he will. I suspect he wasn't quite at his best the last time and 2 months off will have done him good. All Is True is sure to give it a good go for the Ellis team, but I will save on Lift Me Up. I do have concerns about him jumping wise, but that was only his 5^th start and every chance he would have learnt plenty from that experience and you would like to think his jumping and his greenness will be better tonight. Out of the bigger prices I am wary of Runwiththetide from a trainer perspective more than form, but Pyleigh Court could well have been slightly under estimated by the market.

 

6.00

Bloodstone - Finished 2^nd in 3 Restricted's on the bounce before easily winning one at Lockinge. Even so that form is below what will be required to win this.

 

Bobby Bow - Was missing for 21 months before a decent enough 2^nd in the mud at Ffos Las off 106 in a handicap in January. Wasn't anywhere near as good next time though at Ayr and he was a well beaten 3^rd of 3 on his pointing debut at Chaddesley last month. Not a total no hoper on the Ffos Las form, but hard to fancy on what he's done since plus the trip might stretch him.

 

Fairly Famous - Showed the odd glimmer of promise in 4 starts for Olly Murphy, but has really found his form since joining current connections and has won 4/4. He is clearly progressive and this is usually the weakest race on the card, but when you look at the SPs of the last 3 wins (1/2, 1/4 and 1/7) you realise he hasn't beaten an awful lot. Hard to really put a handle on how good he is because of the weakness of the races he's won and I would rather have seen more substance to the form before backing him.

 

Hidden Charmer - Was a 15L 3^rd in this race last year and hard to see where the improvement is going to come to go 2 places better. Has run OK this season, but did go from being beaten a length by Forest Chimes to being beaten 13L by him last time.

 

Let Me Entertain U - Nothing of the quality of the other two opponents he faced at Taunton last time, but he was well behind from a long way before pulling up and hard to have any confidence about him.

 

Marcle Ridge - On his day has been a more than useful hunter chaser and pointer and took this race in very easy fashion back in 2019. In 2020 he ran a huge race from the front when finishing 6^th in the race that was still known as the Foxhunter then. In 2021 he was a bit disappointing at Warwick and very disappointing at Worcester, but inbetween those two efforts he won the 2m5f race on this card. Last season he started the campaign by beating Famous Clermont at Barbury which even though he has improved since then was still a hell of an effort. He then went and disappointed a bit at Hereford. Maybe he wasn't quite right that day, and he has certainly been a hard horse to keep sound, because he wasn't seen again until this March when he won a Mixed Open with ease at Howick. No doubting that he has the best form in the race and if it is one of his better days then he will be hard to beat.

 

Moratorium - Thought he had this race won last year until Trio For Rio came and mugged him late on. The 2^nd to Not That Fuisse was decent at Wetherby and then he won at Alnwick. Not surprisingly found the Cheltenham Festival too tough, but he ran really poorly at Exeter after that. To be fair that came soon enough and he is better than he showed there and I'm sure he will put up a better showing.

 

Trio For Rio - Has won this race for the last 2 years. In 2021 he was all out to just hold on and then as I mention above he got up on the run-in to beat Moratorium by a length. He came into that race on the back of a pulled-up effort and he's not coming into this in great form either. He's been outpaced in his last two races when a 17L 2^nd and a 5.25L 4^th last time. I suspect though his season has been all about landing the hat-trick in this and you couldn't rule him out from landing it.

 

Verdict - If Fairly Famous did go and win then fair enough, but there isn't much substance to those 1's for me so I think the winner will come from the bottom 3 on the race card. Marcle Ridge has the best form and I would imagine this has been the target for him so he is the main bet. I will also cover Trio For Rio as you obviously can't knock his form in this race.

 

6.35

Dandy Dan - Great performance to win this race last year under a good ride from Laureen and the 3^rd in the Stratford Foxhunters was good as well considering she got caught out a bit round the sharper track. This season he was behind Law Of Gold again on his return at Garthorpe in February where he looked in need of the race in the parade ring before the race. I put him up as a big price outsider at The Festival when James King took over in the saddle, but he struggled to get involved in ground that would have been plenty soft enough for him. As long as the ground doesn't get too soft here he looks the one most likely to take advantage if Premier Magic under performs.

 

Myth Buster - Made Premier Magic work hard to win at Chaddesley Corbett in December when beaten 3.5L in the end. There was 5lbs difference in the weights that day and there is 4lbs difference today so fair to say that form shouldn't be reversed and he was well behind him at The Festival when unseating at the 2^nd last. He has won over 4m this season and was entered in the 4m race tonight, but connections have opted to run Step Back in that (the right choice I hope). I can see him running well enough, but not sure he is good enough to win even if Premier Magic runs below par.

 

Poludora - Was 30L behind Myth Buster in February and that pretty much sums up his chances here.

 

Premier Magic - The Cheltenham Festival Hunters Chase is working out very well form wise. Its On The Line won at Punchestown last week, Shantou Flyer won at Exeter, Rocky's Howya has been focusing on pointing, Chris's Dream was running a huge race until falling at Punchestown, Famous Clermont won at Aintree and Vaucelet was 2^nd at Punchestown. It was a massive shame that Premier Magic couldn't run at Punchestown last week, but seemingly he has this race at his mercy. The only thing that worries me is his trainer mentioned that he is a bad traveller so had sent him to Ireland early to settle in and clearly a trip to Ireland and back for no reason is hardly ideal. Apart from that though he should be hard to beat and on form he wouldn't even need to be at his best to win.

 

Encounter A Giant - Was well behind Premier Magic and Myth Buster at Chaddesley over Christmas, but has got his act together in his last two starts winning a Mixed Open at Bangor and then landing the Lady Dudley Cup back at Chaddesley last month. That suggests to me he is in much better form than when he last raced against Premier Magic and Myth Buster and whilst he wont beat an on song Premier Magic he can run well.

 

Rebel Dawn Rising - Not had any luck under rules so far this season as he was brought down at Fakenham on Gold Cup day and then he decided to jink right at the last back there on Easter Monday and unseat his jockey over the last when the race was won. He didn't really seem to stay when he pulled up in the Intermediate Final on this card last year and ended up pulling up. Maybe something came to light that day as they are prepared to give the course and distance another go. I think he's got a fair bit of ability though so if he does stay a top 3 finish wouldn't surprise.

 

Trappist Monk - Landed a very weak hunter chase at Fontwell with ease back in March and has since had a walk over and a win at Parham. That along with a win at Charing means he has won 4 on the bounce, but it would be a big surprise if he made it 5 here.

 

Verdict - This is Premier Magic's race to lose and the only way I can see him getting beaten is if the wasted trip to Ireland has left a mark. If he's in his usual form then it's his race to lose. Dandy Dan is clear 2^nd best for me though and I am surprised he's not 2^nd favourite so I will back him in the forecast and have a small e/w bet on him.

 

7.10

Sine Nomine - Jumped terribly when 3^rd in the Intermediate Final last year, but clearly based on her Stratford win that has been fixed. She was very well backed ahead of that contest and the money was spot on as she travelled really well throughout the race. Her jumping was spot on and she always looked the most likely winner. I do think the soft ground helped because I think she is the only one who handled it, but given the ease of her success I suspect she would have won anyway. If she brings that jumping performance to this race then she has a leading chance.

 

Singapore Saga - A likeable mare who ran really well behind Envious Editor in the first hunter chase of the season. She won her next two points and took advantage of Highway Jewel's fall at the 2^nd to win the first of those. She then went on to win at Exeter where she outstayed Viroflay and then Darren Andrews did all he could to try and beat Shantou Flyer over the same course and distance last month, but in the end she was outclassed. Went back pointing a couple of weeks ago and toughed it out to win a Mixed Open. Bare form of that race is nothing special, but clearly has a leading chance in this.

 

Highway Jewel - Was due to run in the Festival Hunter Chase the last 3 years, but in 2021 they forgot to enter her, she was injured last year and then this year they decided to skip the race after she fell at Chipley Park on her reappearance. Clearly that worked out well for the trainer given he won the race anyway, but it also proves how good they think she is. I thought she would have had a right chance in 2021 after she had hammered Hazel Hill in a point that season and she then finished a close 2^nd to Latenightpass in a hot hunter chase at Warwick. That year she landed this race and bizarrely she jumped terribly and to her right given she had jumped so well on the whole at Warwick. That has to be in the back of your mind slightly. She had no trouble beating Singapore Saga in her only start last year and was 1/3 to beat her again when she fell. She went to Lydstep on Easter Monday and she made all to win with ease in a quick time. I think she would have been able to win both the races that Sine Nomine and Singapore Saga have won this season and for me she is the best of the 3 runners. They also have to give her weight as she doesn't have a penalty anymore.

 

Kalabaloo - A former winner of this race 2019, but was put in her place by Feuille De Lune last season and she isn't as good as she was back then. Did win last time out at Charm Park, but would be a surprise if she was able to land this.

 

Miss Seagreen - Was beaten 30L by Highway Jewel when 3^rd in this 2 years ago and her running style suggests she might have been better off in the 4m race. She was ridden by an inexperienced jockey first time out when a staying on 3^rd at Larkhill to I K Brunel, but it was a similar story at the same venue in February when ridden by tonight's rider. It happened again at Maisemore last month when 2^nd to Another Venture and given she was staying on in this race in 2021 it seems she finds things happening a bit too quick for her over even this trip.

 

Tangoed - Total no hoper in this contest.

 

Verdict - I respect Singapore Saga and Sine Nomine's chances and would favour the Stratford winner over the Exeter winner. Highway Jewel has already beaten Singapore Saga and whilst she might have improved a little, I still think Highway Jewel is the better horse. Granted she will more than likely have to jump better than she did when she won this race 2 years ago, but that would appear to be an anomaly so I am happy enough to think she won't repeat that tonight. 

 

7.45

Go Whatever - Clearly stays well as he landed the Sussex National last January, but he pulled up on his hunter chase debut behind Shantou Flyer at Exeter last month and whilst he might have needed it is going to take him to come forward a hell of a lot to get competitive in this.

 

Shantou Flyer - Has had a hell of a season given he is now 13. Managed to beat Latenightpass at Chaddesley Corbett in December and then was 2^nd to Famous Clermont at Wincanton. He then reversed that form by flying up the hill to finish 3^rd to Premier Magic at The Festival to improve his fantastic record in that race. After that he won easily beating Singapore Saga last time at Exeter. Clearly quality wise he is one of the best horses in the race, but my concern is that he failed to stay in this race last year. He had only had one start that season 2 months prior so maybe he wasn't at peak fitness, but I am a little surprised they haven't decided to have another crack at Premier Magic instead of running in this.

 

Cheltenham De Vaige - Ran well to finish 3^rd to Dandy Dan in the feature race last year and managed to win a 3 runner handicap at Newton Abbot in August. Returned this season with a staying on 2^nd over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow in January to Just Your Type and then the following month again ran like a stayer over 3m when winning at Badbury Rings. Might not be quite good enough to win, but ought to be staying on when some of these have cried enough and a place showing can't be ruled out.

 

Law Of Gold - I still don't know how he finished 2^nd in this race last year. He jumped terribly and I would go as far to say I have never seen a horse jump so badly, especially round Cheltenham, and still go so close to winning. Indeed, he looked like the winner throughout the home straight and fair play to the winner for finding plenty to hold him off. He had issues with his jumping ran he ran at The Festival in the past as well so you couldn't be certain he will show an improved round of jumping tonight, but it could hardly be any worse. After that he finished a very good 2^nd to Vaucelet at Stratford. This season he has been seen just twice at Garthorpe and given he tends to need his first race there was certainly no shame in finishing a 14L 2^nd to Premier Magic. He went back 3 weeks later and beat Precious Bounty in decent enough style. This and Stratford must be his two main targets and he gets round safely he is likely to go very close.

 

Another Venture - Not sure he's ever been a horse who has struck me as needing 4m to be seen at his best and he has been well beaten in most of his hunter chase efforts to date albeit against some useful horses. Did win at Maisemore last time which was a decent enough effort, but has a lot of ground to make up on Shantou Flyer based on the Wincanton run.

 

Desire De Joie - I must admit he is a tricky horse to weigh up for me. He wouldn't be out of this on his 2^nd to Dolphin Square at Doncaster last season as he ran a hell of a race to be beaten a short head. He then was outclassed at The Festival behind Billaway and I suspect he wasn't at his best when last of 3 at Thorpe Lodge over Easter. He wasn't seen again until that same race last month and he was last again although he travelled well until tiring late on. The yard do very well with the horses they send hunter chasing so I am wary about him.

 

Just Your Type - Clearly a horse who is all about stamina given his exploits under rules when with Charlie Longsdon and he has shown it again in points this season winning over 3m6f at Cocklebarrow and then landing the Grimthorpe Gold Cup over 4m1f at Sheriff Hutton a month ago. This race is clearly going to be tougher than either of those, but the fact he's a proven stayer ought to see him go well.

 

Kilbrew Boy - Only rated 88 under rules and likely to be outclassed here.

 

Port Of Mars - Was well beaten at Stratford by Sine Nomine last time and whilst this will be a very different test I don't think he will be troubling the main contenders.

 

Potters Approach - Beaten 60L in a point 2 weeks ago and that sums up his chance.

 

Step Back - I have been keen to see him run in this race for most of this season so am very pleased to see him turn up. He is an out and out stayer who likes to front run and it was only a year ago he ran a creditable 4^th in the Bet365 Gold Cup at Sandown to Hewick. This season he ran well in a couple of handicaps before not running his race at all at Wincanton on hunter chase debut. He then went to Taunton and made the running before finding himself outpaced turning for him. He stayed on again though and ended up getting 4^th beaten 15L by I K Brunel. 3m round their on quick ground would not have been ideal and he then went to Carlisle over 3m in heavy ground and he ran his best race of the season and only just being beaten by Billy Bronco who thrives in such conditions. I certainly wouldn't rubbish the form because the winner was well beaten at Hexham last time because the ground wasn't soft enough for him that day. He was never going to make the running at Aintree, but he got round safely which was the best connections could have hoped for. I think this race is ideal for him because he should be able to front run at a nice gallop and he will keep going over 4m. The only slight concern I have is if he is still good enough to beat something like Law Of Gold, but otherwise I think he has a great chance of hitting the frame at least.

 

Sugar Baron - The yards 2^nd runner and I suspect 2^nd string despite the fact Gina is riding him. Ran a huge race at this meeting in 2021 to finish 2^nd and then he went on to beat Captain Cattistock at Warwick the following month. Was only seen once in 2022 when falling at Cocklebarrow and in 3 runs this season the evidence suggests he isn't as good as he was at the age of 13.

 

The Whistle Blower - Pulled up in the Intermediate Final last year and I was really surprised to see him go off at only 9/2 at Carlisle given none of his form gave him a chance of beating the leading horses and the ground was testing. He did bounce back at Hornby on Easter Saturday and he won on the card for the 2^nd year running. He beat Black Op which was a bit of a surprise on the face of it. Given that track is a stiff test of stamina you would think 4m would suit, but he ran like a non-stayer over 3m2f last season and he's hard to fancy on the back of the Carlisle effort as well.

 

Verdict - Shantou Flyer clearly has the class to win, but he didn't have the stamina to this race last year so he is very short in my view. Ideally Law Of Gold will jump better than he did last year, but the fact he still went so close suggests to me that he will go close again even if his jumping isn't foot perfect. We know Just Your Type will stay, but he wouldn't have the class of the other two so would need them to underperform to win however he certainly has place claims. I do think Step Back is over priced though as this race has looked the ideal one for him. I think he can get into a nice rhythm out in front and he will keep battling all the way to the line. The yard has won this race before as well.

 

8.17

Fix It All - Had shown nothing at all since coming over from France before turning up in a hunter chase at Ludlow last month when a big price at 16/1. He was held up out the back and even turning for home he had a lot of work to do, but he was relentless down the home straight and after the 2^nd last I thought he was going to go and win the race. I know that Espoir De Teillee hung after the last, but for me Fix It All would have won anyway and he went on to prove that was no fluke when bolting up over the same course and distance a few days later. This is obviously a very different test, but he is certainly a leading player on those Ludlow efforts.

 

Not That Fuisse - Heidi Palin gets back on top after Jack Andrews took over at Aintree where he ran a very creditable 7th. Heidi gave him a good ride at Wetherby when beating Moratorium although she got caught out at Taunton when she was stuck behind horses going backwards leaving the back and that was just at the time Izzie Marshall kicked for home on I K Brunel and that won the race. He needs the ground to stay fairly quick and I do think he needs further nowadays, but he might well get away with it at Cheltenham. If he has come out of Aintree fine then he goes on the list of possible winners.

 

Solomon Grey - Won this race in really good style last year and has an obvious chance this time around. After that win he ran in the big race at Stratford and didn't stay the trip. This season we have only seen him twice. He was well behind Not That Fuisse at Taunton, but the trainers horses always get better as the season goes on. He then injured himself rolling around the field so wasn't seen again until last week in the same Ludlow race he won last year. This time he was a 17L 2^nd to Secret Investor, but he ran with great credit before understandably getting a bit tired late on. I still wonder if he is going to be in peak form just 9 days later, but I certainly expect him to come on plenty for that run.

 

Dogon - Looks like being one of the social runners on the evening as has little chance on form.

 

Magic Saint - Ran a cracking race on hunter chase debut to push Bennys King to 0.75L at Hereford and he then backed that up with an easy success at Wincanton. He beat Diligent by 13L on that occasion, but was value for more. However it is worth pointing out that Fix It All beat Diligent by 29L at Ludlow and I think Magic Saint essentially had little to beat that day. I thought he might run better at Aintree than he did, but he was beaten 55L and finished 13^th in the end. You can always forgive a horse a bad run round the Grand National course though and he has good form over this course and distance so another possible winner for me.

 

Ballotin - Good hunter chaser for David Maxwell in 2019 and if in that form he would have a chance in this, but he is nowhere near that level at the moment having been beaten in a match, pulled up at Warwick and then a well beaten 3^rd back in a point last time.

 

Count Simon - Had a very good season pointing having won his last 3 points. The last two of those though came in the weak south east area and he finished last at Newbury behind Lift Me Up on his hunter chase debut. Would need to leave that form well behind to have any chance here.

 

Dickie Diver - 1^st time tongue-tie, but I am not expecting that to work the miracle that he needs to win this.

 

Funky Sensation - Even though he finished 6^th at Exeter 2 starts back it wasn't a bad run given I don't think he really stays 3m and he ran like a non-stayer. He won on Saturday at Flete Park where he just held on to win by a head. None of that form anywhere near good enough to win this, but I'd be tempted to go handicapping with him off his mark of 85 and it might go down more after this.

 

Oistrakh Le Noir - Looked to have the race at his mercy when falling at the last in a point at Ffos Las in November and things haven't really gone his way since. He was stuffed by Viroflay in March and then last time he looked the winner until getting caught very late on. Solid enough horse, but this is a hot race. 

 

Paloma Blue - A more than useful horse under rules when trained by Henry De Bromhead and he was 4^th in the 2018 Supreme and 6^th in the following year's Arkle. He wasn't a prolific winner though and only won a couple of times over fences. It has been a different story since joining new connections though and he has won 4 of his 7 starts. He clearly still retains a fair level of ability, but I am not sure he has beaten a great deal and there are some good horses in this. Arguably his best run was when he was 2^nd to Macklin a horse who has done well this season. I wouldn't want to say he can't win, but I am preferring the proven hunter chase form.

 

St Barts - Been well beaten in points this season and looks one of the evening's social runners.

 

What A Moment - Only managed to beat 3 horses home in points this season and this 13yo has no chance.

 

Verdict - I think the winner will come from Fix It All, Not That Fuisse, Solomon Grey and Magic Saint and the two I will be backing are Fix It All and Solomon Grey. This is a different test from Ludlow for Fix It All, but it is no surprise it has been a target for him and whatever has clicked for him has seen a huge amount of improvement. The way he has finished off his races as well suggest that the hill will suit. I've a slight worry that Solomon Grey might need a little bit longer, but he won this race in great style last year and he will show the benefit of the Ludlow run where he blew up late on behind a good horse. If one of the other two win then clearly it will be no surprise. Paloma Blue is very short in the betting for me. He has the back class, but his pointing form doesn't really excite me and we have 4 horses who have strong hunter chase form so he will have to be running to a good level to win this.

[yossa6133]

That was absolutely terrifying on Fier Jaguen 😂 must lost 20 odd lengths jumping right. 

[Darran]

Must admit it was worse than it usually is, but was confident he would have the class to win anyway and so it proved. I don't think he was at his best, but that was a top class effort because the 2nd is a good horse.